TdF 2017 stage 8: Dole > Station des Rousses 187,5 km

[SKSemtex]

GVA from break

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Zubeldia for the win! (I have no idea how, but even if he wins this stage we'll never get to see it.)

 

[cellardoor]

Re: Re:

OMG. We have a weekend, and not one, but two mountain stages (and NOT MTF's either mind you) that could hypothetically impact on the general classification.

LS must be doing cartwheels

Like many others, I see Cummings as having a great chance to win this stage. The final climb is too long for Gilbert or GVA, and he would get a significant enough advantage to be able to hold them off over the final 12kms. Fulgsang, who already is out of GC contention, is not far enough behind on time to be allowed into the BOD, so it doesn't matter that a rider of his capabilities could defeat Cummings on a finish such as this.

So my question is: Why does it seem inevitable that if Cummings wants to go into the BOD, that he will?

Why don't the other teams try and see that he doesn't make it into the BOD?

Sometimes the BOD is established after 10 kms, but in other stages not for 50 kms. If Cummings gets into the first break attempt, why don't the other riders just sit up when they are only half a minute ahead of the peloton? Cummings might try and succeed again; if so, the others sit up again. Eventually he is going to run out of energy, or just by luck miss a break attempt, then the riders can ride, hypothetically.

Why is it just almost conceded that he will make the BOD, and then probably win the stage?

If a stage was flat, but had a 2 km climb 30 kms from the finish, wouldn't everyone ride hard to distance Kittel?

If a stage had a 1km murito at the end, wouldn't riders do all they could to distance Valverde earlier?

Why isn't such an attitude taken to Cummings in this situation when he could well be a fairly obvious winner?

Probably because he's a strong rider and having someone who takes big turns is important to the other breakaway riders. Also, if Cummings was just never allowed in breaks it would somehow not seem to be in the spirit of the sport.

 

[Bolder]

On paper, as most have said, an ideal stage for a breakaway ace to snatch from the GC.

However, I don't think that will happen. My (admittedly somewhat weak, and plainly contrarian) reasoning is that I think Sky will try to put the hammer down today with both Froome and Thomas. They have had a couple of relatively easy days during the past two sprint stages, and everyone expects that stage 9 will be decisive. If Sky can reel in the break by midway up the last climb they will drive hard with Kwiatkowski until he blows up, then the climbers will take over and deliver Thomas and Froome to the line.

Either a 1-2 finish for Sky (even if the gap is just 10 seconds or so) or seemingly easy Froome victory will demoralize the field for tomorrow.

Arguing against my reasoning is that the poor road condition and choppiness of the climb (if true) does not really play to such "train" tactics b/c its hard to keep a high tempo, not to mention what might be a general fear of losing major time tomorrow. But, on verra!

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

OMG. We have a weekend, and not one, but two mountain stages (and NOT MTF's either mind you) that could hypothetically impact on the general classification.

LS must be doing cartwheels

Like many others, I see Cummings as having a great chance to win this stage. The final climb is too long for Gilbert or GVA, and he would get a significant enough advantage to be able to hold them off over the final 12kms. Fulgsang, who already is out of GC contention, is not far enough behind on time to be allowed into the BOD, so it doesn't matter that a rider of his capabilities could defeat Cummings on a finish such as this.

So my question is: Why does it seem inevitable that if Cummings wants to go into the BOD, that he will?

Why don't the other teams try and see that he doesn't make it into the BOD?

Probably because he's a strong rider and having someone who takes big turns is important to the other breakaway riders.

This last point is important. Why wouldn't you want a national RR/TT champion and proven stage winner in the break? Especially one who just signed a two-year contract at age 36 and wants to justify it.

 

[cellardoor]

Re:

On paper, as most have said, an ideal stage for a breakaway ace to snatch from the GC.

However, I don't think that will happen. My (admittedly somewhat weak, and plainly contrarian) reasoning is that I think Sky will try to put the hammer down today with both Froome and Thomas. They have had a couple of relatively easy days during the past two sprint stages, and everyone expects that stage 9 will be decisive. If Sky can reel in the break by midway up the last climb they will drive hard with Kwiatkowski until he blows up, then the climbers will take over and deliver Thomas and Froome to the line.

Either a 1-2 finish for Sky (even if the gap is just 10 seconds or so) or seemingly easy Froome victory will demoralize the field for tomorrow.

Arguing against my reasoning is that the poor road condition and choppiness of the climb (if true) does not really play to such "train" tactics b/c its hard to keep a high tempo, not to mention what might be a general fear of losing major time tomorrow. But, on verra!

Sky probably will put the hammer down on the last climb, but I think the breakaway will be too far ahead by that point. Sky will almost certainly have sole responsibility to work all day and reeling in a non-dangerous break would involve an unnecessary burning of matches. They'll just make sure the break has the right composition and let it go.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Looking forward to this stage. Will catch the last 3-4 hours of the coverage, I don't expect GC-fireworks, but there are so many good riders without GC ambitions who would want to go in the break. Hard to control for Sky and hopefully we will have a new maillot jaune at the end of the day just to mix it up a bit.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

It would good for Quintana to do something. Maybe that could influence some riders, such as Contador, to follow him.

Quintana do something? ...on this kinda course ? ...Are you for real ?

(P.S. Or on any kinda course it must be said)

The only Colombian able to do anything on this course today is Uran

Any number of riders could win today but it has to be someone who can power climb and has a fast finish/TT

Depends who gets in the breakaway

GC guys : Martin. Uran, Thomas,

 

[DFA123]

I hope that if the break doesn't make it, and a biggish group of GC riders and top domestiques make it over the final climb, that Pantano would be released from babysitting duty to go for the stage win. Looks a nice kind of finish for his strengths.

 

[Valv.Piti]

How about Chaves? I have a little hope he will try to get in the break, but I fear Sky won't that happen.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

How about Chaves? I have a little hope he will try to get in the break, but I fear Sky won't that happen.

Chaves would be cool as well. Doubt he'll be allowed in the break, but we saw at Lombardia that he can sprint a bit if he makes it to the line in a smallsh bunch. Perhaps not on current form though.

Is Wellens in this race? Looks a good stage for him as well if so.

 

[France_En_Marche]

Sky won't let the maillot jaune go. They have the strongest and highest paid squad.

 

[ThePirate81]

Phil Gil from the break. Wellens in yellow.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I hope that if the break doesn't make it, and a biggish group of GC riders and top domestiques make it over the final climb, that Pantano would be released from babysitting duty to go for the stage win. Looks a nice kind of finish for his strengths.

If, if, if...
I think if there's no break ahead we'll likely see a late attacker win. Doubt we'll see the GC group sprint for the victory either way.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I hope that if the break doesn't make it, and a biggish group of GC riders and top domestiques make it over the final climb, that Pantano would be released from babysitting duty to go for the stage win. Looks a nice kind of finish for his strengths.

If, if, if...
I think if there's no break ahead we'll likely see a late attacker win. Doubt we'll see the GC group sprint for the victory either way.

It would be nice if that late attacker could be Pantano. This Tour needs someone to light up the race a bit like he did at times last year.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I hope that if the break doesn't make it, and a biggish group of GC riders and top domestiques make it over the final climb, that Pantano would be released from babysitting duty to go for the stage win. Looks a nice kind of finish for his strengths.

If, if, if...
I think if there's no break ahead we'll likely see a late attacker win. Doubt we'll see the GC group sprint for the victory either way.

It would be nice if that late attacker could be Pantano. This Tour needs someone to light up the race a bit like he did at times last year.

I don't think one late attack from Pantano would light up the race..! And anyway he won't be with the first group at the top, he was nowhere on Wednesday.
If you're waiting for Pantano to light up the race, wait for the last week when he should be in better shape and will possibly have some freedom.

 

[zigzag wanderer]

Re: Re:

Is it too early/flat for ThiboPinot going for the stage hunt?

Summer thunderstorm tomorrow? In the Jura they can be really heavy, really nasty...I choose my couch .

There was a nasty storm when the Tour came here in 2010, but it started about 30 minutes after the finish.
Massive hailstones, and total chaos trying to get away from the stage finish. The couch would have been a better option, but at least it made my first visit to Le Tour memorable

 

[DanielSong39]

Brambilla to get into the break, to possibly set up Dan Martin if he's got the legs. That's about the only GC-related action I expect.

 

[DanielSong39]

Also, BMC to push the pace in order to limit possible damage from Sky in this stage. They might as well do it today because they'll be helpless tomorrow anyway.

 

[Anderis]

Brambilla to get into the break, to possibly set up Dan Martin if he's got the legs. That's about the only GC-related action I expect.

Brambilla is according to Brian Holm not allowed to attack because he's going to protect Dan Martin

 

[Cyclingismylife]

Can Élie Gesbert be a joker today or tommorow?

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Sky won't let the maillot jaune go. They have the strongest and highest paid squad.

Im sure they will give it away. The new maillot jaune will only have less than a minute ofcourse.

 

[TommyGun]

They are off! Lots of movement to form the break!

 

[DNP-Old]

ARD is live.

 

[Samamba]

Brambilla to get into the break, to possibly set up Dan Martin if he's got the legs. That's about the only GC-related action I expect.

Brambilla is according to Brian Holm not allowed to attack because he's going to protect Dan Martin

Obv not true, Brambilla very active.