TDF GC - Time to talk

[Mellow Velo]

True Issoisso - And in this context is why I think the race may be "won" here. I really think it's in Contador's mindset to attempt to not play it safe, and obliterate everyone here.

True.
That was always LA's ploy. Monster them on the first big mountain stage, win the TT's and short attacks in the final few kms of the other mountain stages.
Use the train to wipe out potential trouble makers and generally ride a defensive, controlled second half of the race.

Stage 7 is awfully early, though and AC may have memories of Paris-Nice, when he took an early lead.

Much depends upon how confident he is in his team.....

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

if that's what it depends on then i dont see him attacking on stage 7

I don't think AC will attack, he is aware that he is a better TTr then any on the other 'natural climbers, so will probably assume the ball is in thier court. Much more likely to see an attack from (as mentioned earlier) The schlecks and sastre.

I'd say menchov will just follow AC, and will probably try to drop him in the last couple kms (probably menchovs tactic for most of the tour). Evans will probably just try to follow AC in the early stages aswell. (though that might depend on how S-L go in the TTT).

LA.. hard to say what will happen with lance .

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Much depends upon how confident he is in his team.....

Absolutely. That really is the key.

Yes, I think a lot of people will be trying to follow Contador's wheel.

 

[Sophistic]

Armstrong still looks too heavy, i mean it's easy to look big standing in between Kloden and Contador but i would guess he is about 2kg heavier than at his tour wins.

 

[jb12345]

tdf 2009

1)Contador
2)cancelara
3)armstrong
4)Menchov
5)Evans
6)sastre
7)Nibali
8)F Shleck
9)Gesink
10)LL Sanchez


KOM: Moncoutié
green: Freire

 

[Ninety5rpm]

2)cancelara

???

He might eke some time out of Sastre, Menchov, LA, Evans, LL etc in the TTs, but not that much with many, and the dude is going to lose many minutes to most of them in the mountains.

 

[Mellow Velo]

A right sample from the Monaco team presentation.


"Ouch! Who did that? Can someone please take that knife outta my back por favor?"




"Yeah, it was me, big 'ol Tex...I confess.....NO WAIT I TAKE THAT BACK!!!!"




"Lance bought me my cool shades as a signing on present for his new team. No more "Bingo" for me.....
.....no more shiit kit, either."




"Yes, Fabian has kindly offered me some of his hair, for this new transplant treatment. It has a 60% chance of success and I'm happy with that figure."

 

[Parrot23]

Much more likely to see an attack from (as mentioned earlier) The schlecks and sastre.

Think Bertie's best chance to stamp his authority on Astana/Lance is to go with a long-bomb attack by A. Schleck. I'm pretty sure Schleck's gonna try this.

Then counter-attack. And both drop Lance far from home. Older guy, little heavier. Tough to go with something really aggressive long way from home.

Convinced A. Schleck is going to try the long bomb(s). Why?

1) only way he can win the Tour
2) it worked in Liege-Bastogne (he finally won something)
3) he surely has learned from Lance on the importance of one big attack
4) he must know Menchov is going to follow the wheels to every finish and then try to attack for the wins/bonuses
5) he must be thinking of what Sastre did last year.

Fortune might favour the brave this Tour.

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

I can see the usual suspects of the more senior Armstrong, Sastre, Menchov and Evans overcoming the youth of Contador and A.Schleck as the race enters the third week.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Think Bertie's best chance to stamp his authority on Astana/Lance is to go with a long-bomb attack by A. Schleck. I'm pretty sure Schleck's gonna try this.

Then counter-attack. And both drop Lance far from home. Older guy, little heavier. Tough to go with something really aggressive long way from home.

Convinced A. Schleck is going to try the long bomb(s). Why?

1) only way he can win the Tour
2) it worked in Liege-Bastogne (he finally won something)
3) he surely has learned from Lance on the importance of one big attack
4) he must know Menchov is going to follow the wheels to every finish and then try to attack for the wins/bonuses
5) he must be thinking of what Sastre did last year.

Fortune might favour the brave this Tour.

none of them i believe.
but point taken with the long bomb.

 

[cycutza]

My original picks have changed a little but...

GC

1) AC - He has it all and is just waiting to unleash in the Mountains

2) Cadel - There's one better....again. I think he can win on ventoux though

3) A Schleck - This will be his first podium and I'm going all out and saying he will win the Tour next year and maybe the year after that. He will win Stage 7

4) Menchov - I think some kicks from the top three riders in the Mountains will cause him to lose just enough time.

5) Sastre - Same as Menchov but I thik he could actually be 4th.

6) Lance - Love his approach and the mind games but he just won't have it against the riders that have aimed for this ride.

7) F Schleck - Will help his bro and on the way get up here

8) Krueziger - He could come in as high as 6th but I think needs another year.

9) LL Sanchez - He's an awesome technical rider and will do well in the opening TT and will take a stage...either 6 or 8. Maybe a chance in some later stages too if he is nowhere near GC top 10.

10) Rogers - Course won't destroy him but will be lucky to get higher than this

11) Gesink - Will ride for Menchov....for this year anyways.

12) Leipheimer.......................

Points

1) Cav - Just too good and will win at least 4 stages and ride till the end

2) Boonen - Will be hungry and should have a dedicated team

3) Friere / Farrar - Friere will be unlucky in some very aggressive group sprints

4) Ciolek / Haussler - Haussler will end up leading out for Thor but then just riding away from him.

MT - Same applies for all three riders I've chosen. They will be in breaks, they will get the points but would like to see Fedrigo win this.

1) Fedrigo

2) Moncoutie

3) Le Lay

White - A SCHLECK.

Thanks for everyones great comments/insight on these posts

What a Tour this is going to be.....can't wait for the late nights and sleepy days at work. Have fun all.

 

[hoolaparara]

I can't work out whether this years race will be great or a massive disappointment. The course pretty much everybody seems to agree is soft which means there are lots of riders of different styles who should make it a ****storm of attacks but really years of seeing 'tactics' racing makes me nervous. I mean 7 years of watching tactics against armstrong consisting of waiting behind the train then getting dropped 2km from the end.. the only break from that being vino going early on a climb only to be chased down for the pack by teammate kloden (hmm wonder if he'll use that experience this year) has me wondering if we'll not have the road equivalent of what turned me off track racing where two guys tried to not move at all.

Hell if they ride as cautiously as they seem to like to Cavendish might even win a bunch sprint on some of the climb finishes!

 

[Anonymous]

Well, here it is in all its glory...How did you do?

 

[Anonymous]

1. Contador
2. Menchov
3. Evans
4. Sastre
5. A. Schleck
6. Armstrong
7. Gesink
8. Kreuziger
9. Rogers
10. Pellizotti

Well, 1 out of 10 ain't bad...

 

[subzro]

1. Contador
2. Armstrong
3. Andy Schleck
4. Evans
5. Menchov
6. Sastre
7. Rogers
8. Gesink
9. Krueziger
10. L L Sanchez

I had 1st and 9th.

And, 2nd and 3rd but the reverse order

Otherwise I was a bit ambitious trying to pick 10, should have left it at 5. Evans and Menchov a total let down, Gesink and Rogers had bad luck.

 

[auscyclefan94]

My picks were originally
1. Contador
2.Evans
3.A Schleck
4.Menchov
5. Leipheimer
6. Sastre
7.Kreuziger
8. F SChleck
9. Vandevelde
10. Armstrong.

1 out of 10 for me. I was hoping to improve on 3/10 last year but no.

 

[Anonymous]

did we do well..

we at least i tipped contador, and shleck second.. got the rest wrong though...