TDF GC - Time to talk

[Christian]

I know of course of his injuries and all and I agree he is not a bad rider, but I still don't see why he is in the top 10 list of cyclingnews. I don't think he'll be able to get into the top 10 in the end, I'd even say Tony Martin might finish better than him.

 

[Amsterhammer]

.... I'd even say Tony Martin might finish better than him.

I've convinced myself of it. I really like Martin and expect him to be prominent, possibly even a polka dot contender (yes, yes, I know the Swiss mountains were nothing by comparison).

 

[Rice Daddy]

1. Alberto Contador
2. Cadel Evans
3. Lance Armstrong
4. Andy Schleck
5. Denis Menchov
6. Frank Schleck

 

[Andre.J]

1. Contador
2. Menchov
3. Sastre
4. Kreuziger
5. Monfort

 

[Jasper]

I would love to see Monfort there, but I think it is still too soon.

 

[phillop]

1. sastre
2. contadoor
3. kreuziger
4. evans
5. a.schleck

 

[Moondance]

1. Alberto Contador
2. Denis Menchov
3. Cadel Evans
4. Lance Armstrong
5. Carlos Sastre
6. Andy Schleck
7. Levi Leipheimer
8. Kim Kirchen
9. Franco Pellizotti
10. Roman Kreuziger

 

[irvini]

1) Lance Armstrong
2) Denis Menchov
3) Carlos Sastre
4) Either Schleck
5) Cadel Evans

I've left Contador out, the bookie's odds are ridiculous. I realise it's reverse logic but if you assume the house always wins then Contador will not.



And am I the only one to think there's an outside chance of David Millar making the top 10 (£12 at odds of 38-1, come on David).

 

[ak-zaaf]

1) Lance Armstrong
2) Denis Menchov
3) Carlos Sastre
4) Either Schleck
5) Cadel Evans

I've left Contador out, the bookie's odds are ridiculous. I realise it's reverse logic but if you assume the house always wins then Contador will not.



And am I the only one to think there's an outside chance of David Millar making the top 10 (£12 at odds of 38-1, come on David).

probably. i wouldn't even bet on him reaching top 20.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that the Tour may be essentially over after Stage 7.

In the past I looked at the route and felt that the climb to Arcalis may be too gradual at the top, and the previous climbs not enough to put serious hurt into GC men. I've since been told from some who have been there that the latter is not true, and the climb up the Serra-Seca is tougher than it looks and is going to put some strain and wear on riders.

The stage is long at 224km, almost all of it up, and the climb up to Arcalis is also 2240m up, and long. This climb is almost as big as Ventoux. Not quite, but something to consider.

I'm thinking Astana will try, and fail, to set a Postal train on the stage. But other teams are as strong and we'll see attacks first on the Serra-Seca, though not enough to split GC, only quicken the pace. And some 20k from the finish the real attacks will start, and Contador at some point is going to put the hammer down and climb for all he is worth, more than any other time in his entire career. He's going to try to completely crush everyone, including Armstrong, and put away any doubt anyone has of his abilities in dramatic fashion.

The time splits may not be enormous, but the psychological factor will be. From there, Stages 8 and 9 won't do anything to GC, and not only will no one be able to drop Contador in the Alpes, he'll probably add time there. And by the time they get to Ventoux, it will be a formality.

Maybe.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Careful, or 53 will be around to call you negative!

I hope you are wrong there, Alpe, otherwise it's going to be a long race.
History, other than Ullrich's 1997 motorbike impression suggests that the time gaps should be small.

Arcalis is certainly tougher towards it's back end, before levelling a bit in the last km.
It's first half is definitely train terrain, though.
I see Sexy Bank and Astana side by side at that point.

IMO Serra-Seca is mighty early, on an first week stage, to drop the uber cautious approach.

Much, I think, will depend upon the weather. More so, perhaps than any year since 2003.
Almost every stage takes place under the Mediterraean's influence, not the much cooler Northern climate.
It's been very hot, this past week and if it continues......

The Le Grand Bernand stage for me.

 

[issoisso]

Regardless of how hard the Andorra stage may be, there's one factor that I feel will shape that stage above any other:

Think of the first mountain stage of every grand tour. There's hardly any differences because everyone's always afraid to take risks. Everyone's still not sure of their strength compared to others.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

True Issoisso - And in this context is why I think the race may be "won" here. I really think it's in Contador's mindset to attempt to not play it safe, and obliterate everyone here.

 

[issoisso]

Depends on Bruyneel though. He's not a big fan of having to defend the jersey for the week or so that comes next before even going into the next GC stage.

If I was in his place, I wouldn't want that either.

 

[Jasper]

It would surely have the element of surprise - to a certain extent at least. If he would ignite such a bold move, the question is which other favourite(s) will follow him? They might not have the form to do so yet, so early in the Tour, or they might think that it is too early to waste precious energy they might need in the last week. But on the other hand, it is not just anybody, it's Contador. Sastre, Menchov and the likes can't take the risk of letting him go, assuming they can take back time in the TT's, or hoping he will have a bad day like in Paris-Nice. It would be very interesting to see how they would all react. Let their teams try and do the work? Work together to take him back? Or individual counterattacks? But what with the Astana watchdogs, so early in the Tour it won't be easy to get rid of them.

The only one I would see immediately jumping to Contadors wheel and even help him trying to get the gap as big as possible, is the young Schleck, who has every reason to get as much time between him and the better timetrialists.

I'd much prefer this scenario over the one similar to last year, putting everything on the Ventoux.

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

1. contador
2. evans
3. sastre
4. menchov
5. Kloden
6. A. Schleck
7. Kreuziger
8. Leipheimer
9. Gesink
10. Kirchen

18. Lance

 

[jonjungel]

It would surely have the element of surprise - to a certain extent at least. If he would ignite such a bold move, the question is which other favourite(s) will follow him?

Interesting question. Personally, I think any rider with GC hopes will try to follow. Compared to a "Ventoux-situation", the good TT-riders will slow down a bit earlier, in order to keep something for later stages and/or not blow up totally 1km from the top.

Sastre, Kreuziger, Pelizotti and both Schlecks will do everything to follow.

Whatever the outcome, I would love to see any GC favourite go all-in on the stage to Andorra. Yay for attacking racing !

 

[Sophistic]

1.Evans
2.Contador
3.Menchov
4.Kirchen
5.Sastre
6.Vande Velde
7.Armstrong
8.Kreuziger
9.F.Schleck
10.Rogers

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

1. Contador
2. F. Schleck
3. Kirchen
4. Evans
5. Sastre
6. Kreuziger
7. Menchov
8. Efimkin
9. A. Schleck
10. Nibali

 

[Pietro]

1.) LA
2.) Contra
3.) Dennis Menchov
4.) Levi Leipheimer
5.) Pelizotti

But ya know something... We dont know which of LA's top competitor's the UCI will dump down the toilet...

Including LA. He could very easily pop positive for something even if he wasn't. The french are not his friend.

Evans for the top spot...and watch for the 'Spanish' contingent, regardless of team, working for Contador. Sastre, Piero

 

[mr. tibbs]

Interesting question. Personally, I think any rider with GC hopes will try to follow. Compared to a "Ventoux-situation", the good TT-riders will slow down a bit earlier, in order to keep something for later stages and/or not blow up totally 1km from the top.

Sastre, Kreuziger, Pelizotti and both Schlecks will do everything to follow.

Whatever the outcome, I would love to see any GC favourite go all-in on the stage to Andorra. Yay for attacking racing !

I think these guys might actually be the animators, especially Sastre and The Brothers Schleck. Contador is the one who only has to follow; if these guys attack they'll probably drop Menchov, Evans, Armstrong, et al, so that will give Contador time over the TTists. And then in the TTs, Contador will beat Sastre and Schleck(s) by a healthy margin.

So yeah. I think we'll see Sastre and Andy Schleck off the front (with the latter having the best chance) and Contador following.

 

[tcher76]

If Lance can manage a 5th to 10th in the GC, it should be considered a victory for him. Look for the Caisse d'Epargne team to be in the running with Sanchez.

 

[Andre.J]

I would love to see Monfort there, but I think it is still too soon.

I would love Devolder to make it to the top ten or better too. But lately he's very inconsistent. What a great Tour de Flanders he had. I can still see him dropping Quinzato on that monster of a hill.

 

[issoisso]

Lance at the presentation with the oldest mind game ever seen: naming someone OTHER than your chief rival as the "real guy".

"I'm here to work for Levi". right.

That sentence worked decently for Hinault. Doubt the same will happen here.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Depends on Bruyneel though. He's not a big fan of having to defend the jersey for the week or so that comes next before even going into the next GC stage.

Ahh, except I'm working from the mindset that Contador doesn't view Lance, or Lance's Astana domestiques, as his teammates until he completely puts them in his place. And if I were Lance, I'd need to be shown this as well to be honest. It's my opinion that Contador is going to feel threatened by Lance, and possibly somewhat his own team, which is why as soon as the road turns seriously up (Stage 7) he'll test everyone.

Including LA. He could very easily pop positive for something even if he wasn't. The french are not his friend.

Oh please. I can't believe people still believe this nonsense that "the French" (the entire nation all thinks collectively, like The Borg?) are out to get Lance. The man himself perpetuated this absurdity right on Larry King, saying he didn't trust the lab with his 1999 samples, and wouldn't make a come back as he wouldn't get a fair shake. Well, if he truly felt that way, and that there's a chance they'd find a way to railroad him, why did he come back then?

Can anyone point to a single case in sports history where a lab was proven by an objective arbiter to have tampered with, or spiked, an athletes sample? Not make lab errors or miscalculate (which is rare in itself) but intentionally alter an athlete's sample?

And can anyone specifically point out, using objective logic, not biased hyperbole or conjecture, as to why any lab would do this to Lance, or any other rider for that matter?