TDF GC - Time to talk

[Alpe d'Huez]

i cannot believe not a single person has picked cadel to win. remember, you heard it here first.

The course actually suits Cadel a lot. There are a 10 flat stages, and nearly all of the mountain stages have long descents and runouts to the finish, or a gentle incline to the top - all of this will make GC breaks difficult. The exception to this is the Ventoux.

My all over prediction is:

That's pretty bold! I like it!

With the mountain stages the way they are, there is a remote chance that Contador won't win a stage. I really doubt though that Andy Schleck can climb fast enough on this course to do that kind of damage.

 

[Doug Laipple]

1) Contador
2) Sastre
3) Evans
4) Rogers
5) Kreuziger

Armstrong will, sadly, not finish the race. He is an accident waiting to happen.

 

[sel1700]

For me rogers will have to figure some where. columbia seem to be on another planet right now.

1. rogers
2. contador
3. evans
4. armstrong
5. kloden

 

[shizno]

TTT Rule?

What is the rule this year on time lost during the TTT?

 

[Outsprinted]

so astana get's no jersey's and no stage wins, unlikely with contador.

Nah, actually I think the mind game between Bruyneel/Armstrong and Contador, plus the finincial crisis will destroy the team from the inside. If someone takes a jersey or stage win, it's Zubeldia who wins a mountain stage from the break or takes the polka dot jersey.

 

[analo69]

No special rules.

The riders will lose the time they lose. But is is only approx 40 km long.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

i don't think people are giving menchov enough respect (suggesting he wont compete for the podium?)
Historically menchov gets better in his 2nd GT for the season, last year he came 5th at the giro then (post kohl drug) basically podium placed at the tour, ok he came more well prepared at the giro this year, so fair to claim it would have took more energy, but i think Dennis rode vey intelligently and is a smarter and better rider then last july. Not to mention he has the strongest team he has ever had behind him.. he only had Ten Dam at the giro (Gesink, Ten Dam, Garate for the mountains.. Clement and Posthuma for the TTT) Menchov can win, and personally i think he's contadors biggest threat.

 

[karlboss]

Well it looks an open tour with a lack of really hard mountain top finishes and not a lot of time trialling. Astana is, as Cadel says, the strongest TDF team ever. I just hope that it isn't a procession from start to finish.

 

[BroDeal]

Well it looks an open tour with a lack of really hard mountain top finishes and not a lot of time trialling. Astana is, as Cadel says, the strongest TDF team ever. I just hope that it isn't a procession from start to finish.

It looks like a neutered course designed to benefit Armstrong.

 

[karlboss]

I'm hoping GT courses are becoming easier so that its possible to compete dope free. (I may be dreaming).

Lack of mountain top finishes and long TTs opens up a tour to more contenders. I think its a good thing. this way there is more chances for pereiro-esque vicotiries. I love that the strongest guy might not win, but instead it goes to a strong guy who takes a risk. I couldn't believe Landis got away from CSC and T-mobile, they chased too late and then looked stupid. On the other hand these type of tours might end up being tightly controlled with no break aways and fewer decisive stages...boring.

 

[jaylew]

It looks like a neutered course designed to benefit Armstrong.

Lets not start that again.

 

[phillop]

i think with this route the time gaps will be small, untill ventoux any way.
Because of this the ttt will be important. i dont fancy evans in either of these stages, he wont podium. i think most people are underestimating carlos sastre, i fancy cervelo will be one of the fastest TTTs, with the long TT being the 1st stage after the alps, it should help sastre minimize his loses against the "stronger" TT riders, as they wont have time to recover from the mountains.
i think there are enough opportunitys in the mountains if theyre willing to attack from a long way out. i think contador will win, but andy schleck and sastre will make it exciting.

1. contador
2. sastre
3. a.schleck
4. kreuziger
5. evans

 

[Delicato]

What about Vandevelde's chances? With that neutered course I just don't know where he can lose time, Ventoux suits him.

i don't think people are giving menchov enough respect (suggesting he wont compete for the podium?)
Historically menchov gets better in his 2nd GT for the season, last year he came 5th at the giro then (post kohl drug) basically podium placed at the tour, ok he came more well prepared at the giro this year, so fair to claim it would have took more energy, but i think Dennis rode vey intelligently and is a smarter and better rider then last july. Not to mention he has the strongest team he has ever had behind him.. he only had Ten Dam at the giro (Gesink, Ten Dam, Garate for the mountains.. Clement and Posthuma for the TTT) Menchov can win, and personally i think he's contadors biggest threat.

I would say that Menchov won't podium. He will definitely lose to Contador (or Armstrong, doesn't matter) in TTT and short prologue(let's assume it will be a minute deficit). Does he have a chance to make up that time on ITT? I doubt it. Contador is certainly not DiLuca and he won't lose more than 30 secs to Menchov. Also remember there won't be any time bonuses awarded for top 3, so if Menchov pulls Alpe di Siusi like he did in Giro, he will "only" win, not gain bonus 20 secs. Verbier and Arcalis aren't that selective, I think, there is no way Menchov can blast away from Astana and Saxo Bank brothers.

However, Ventoux is the place where he won twice and that beast suits him more that Contador, but still, I guess that Contador will ride defensively and won't lose too much time.

My podium:
1)Contador (Armstrong, depends on who will be more jacked)
2)Evans (sadly,again)
3)A.Schleck|Sastre|Kreuziger

The place where Schleck and Sastre would make time on Menchov will be the stage finishing in Grand Bornand featuring Colombiere.

As for TTT, I believe that Cervelo can make a huge surprise not losing too much time on Astana or Saxo Bank and beating Rabobank.

 

[auscyclefan94]

For me rogers will have to figure some where. columbia seem to be on another planet right now.

1. rogers
2. contador
3. evans
4. armstrong
5. kloden

Are you Serious!!!! Rogers can't time trial that well anymore or cliimb that well either. yes they (columbia) may win a lot of stages but doesn't mean they 'll win the tour espcially without a real strong leader.

 

[auscyclefan94]

The course actually suits Cadel a lot. There are a 10 flat stages, and nearly all of the mountain stages have long descents and runouts to the finish, or a gentle incline to the top - all of this will make GC breaks difficult. The exception to this is the Ventoux.

Most of the course does suit cadel except the ttt. he does have some strong support in the mountains but the only other strong time trial rider is Sebastian Lang. I don't know anyone else at lotto which can time trial that strongly?

 

[BroDeal]

Most of the course does suit cadel except the ttt. he does have some strong support in the mountains but the only other strong time trial rider is Sebastian Lang. I don't know anyone else at lotto which can time trial that strongly?

A little more ITT kilometers would help Evans separate himself from the pure climbers.

As it is, it looks like the course might favor one big attack, possibly on Ventoux, and just hanging with the other contenders during the rest of the race, i.e. a Sastre course. I really think this favors an older, less explosive Armstrong.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Most of the course does suit cadel except the ttt. he does have some strong support in the mountains but the only other strong time trial rider is Sebastian Lang. I don't know anyone else at lotto which can time trial that strongly?

thomas dekker

and Delicato im not so sure menchov will lose to contador at all on the prolouge (well stage 1), it seems like a course Menchov will enjoy. as for the ttt, i agree rabobank will mor ethen likely lost time to astana here, but not by a lot; menchov, clement, posthuma and even gesink (if the course suits him) can all ride a good time trial, and well I just hope the others ride there heart out on stage 4.

 

[auscyclefan94]

My top 10 gc + jersey winners

This is my Top 10 in the tour:
1.Contador (all round rider, strong team for the mountains and ttt)
2.Evans (Unfortunately he will lose too much time in the ttt) hope i'm wrong!
3.Schleck (strong in mountains, not strong enough in the tt yet!)
4.Leipheimer (2nd in line at a super team, he'll be a super domestique)
5.Sastre (can't time trial. won't be like last year with yellow on his back + bad team)
6.Kreuziger (Strong tt/climber but won't be able to match with the big boys)
7.Menchov(Too tired from giro, loses time in silly places by making bad errors)
8.Gesink (promising rider for the future but not quite their yet)
9.Vandevelde (injury in the giro will be costly + bad mountain team + will get dropped in mountain top stages)
10. Rogers/Kirchen (they both don't quite have it in the mountain stages and rogers doesn't time trial great in grand tours)

Green Jersey: Oscar Freire (consistency and can win sprints in more hillier, uphill finishes. Cav won't win every day.)

Polka Dot Jersey: Christopher Moreau (if he is smart at his last tour he could easily win the jersey over Moncoutie due to pure climbing ability)

White Jersey: Easily, Andy Schleck

Can't wait for the tour

 

[Hotbrakes]

1. Armstrong (unfortunately)
2. Contador (he will have a strange mechanical failure on Ventoux)
3. Levi (nothing suss)
4. Shleck (he is riding for himself this year)
5. Evans (he is good but not great, or clean. I don't know which one)

 

[Mellow Velo]

1. Armstrong (unfortunately)
2. Contador (he will have a strange mechanical failure on Ventoux)
3. Levi (nothing suss)
4. Shleck (he is riding for himself this year)
5. Evans (he is good but not great, or clean. I don't know which one)

I think, if this is the result, I'll turn my back on cycling, altogether.
Maybe I'll take up a hobby..........like watching paint dry.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

hahaha agreed. no way will astana take top 3 places, levi will be lucky to make top ten in my opinion

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Come join us in XC skiing in the winter Mellow! All the doping and spectacular athletic achievements, but less scandals and conspiracies!

 

[Bala Verde]

Time to start adjusting all your top 10 predictions

L'Equipe reports that NEW TESTS will be used in this year's TdF to detect substances/methods of D that cyclists wouldn't expect

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

*astana pulls out of tour*

 

[Escarabajo]

Time to start adjusting all your top 10 predictions

L'Equipe reports that NEW TESTS will be used in this year's TdF to detect substances/methods of D that cyclists wouldn't expect

They are going to do it anyway. Why stop. Same GC standings as predicted in here. Maybe there will be a bust of 1 or 2 "big fish" riders.