I was thinking this stuff was pretty easy until the Giro screwed everything up.
But the first 5 are pretty much deadset, only problem is who picks up 2nd to 5th and whether 2nd can be pried from Andy Schleck. I don't believe it can be.
1. Alberto Contador: Got the team, got the form and the pedigree to smack everyone down a notch or two. Pity Valverde isn't there. He'd have pushed AC.
2. Andy Schleck: Why not? Great climber, improved ITT, which from last year was better than Nibali and only just slower than Lance. Guess who went faster than Basso in the Giro ITT? That's right...Andy will most likely beat Basso. Bye, bye Ivan.
3. Franck Schleck, Dennis Menchov or Samu: These guys decide this place and also through to 5th. Only Cadel can mess with this show.
5-10: Kreuziger, Basso, Rodriguez, Levi, Lance, Kloden, Sastre, Vande Velde, LuLu, Wigans, Rogers and maybe if he can stay upright add in Gesink.
This final group from 5th place to 10th has eleven men. Add in Evans and it is twelve. Lots will be fighting for 5th place. A few less will be fighting for 2nd and 3rd. Maybe Menchov can steal second if he holds on in the hills. Big maybe though. He has to exorcise the demons of Tours past.
What do I know? Astana will be working for one man. Saxo will be working for one man. Euskatel will be working for one man. Rabo will be working for one man, but will make out that they are hedging their bets...they secretly won't be or perhaps they will forget to tell Gesink that. RadioShack will work for Lance. Last year I'd have said it was a mistake but not this year. Lance appears to be as good as Levi. Don't know about Kloden. Lance had an awful ToC, but so did Levi. I'd say most of the runners up group are on equal footing. Team numbers will dictate who goes forwards and who goes backwards. Hence RadioShack will have one rider impressing, but ultimately coming short. LA is their man...he is the money and they all knew this when they signed on. Stupid them...should be Kloden. Liquigas will have to chose a rider at some point. I like Roman so I will go with him. Basso to cross in near Levi and Kloden and hope to hell he doesn't fail another test.
Drugs: Someone will get caught by the AFLD. Another person will be caught by the Gendarmerie. Hopefully they ride for RadioShack, Liquigas, Sky or HTC. I'd prefer LA or Frodo personally but will happily settle for Wigans.
I better put down a final 10 for the sake of it.
1. AC
2. AS
3. FS
4. DM
5. SS
6. CE
7. LA
8. JR
9. RK
10. MR