Tdf prediction thread

[Bike Boy]

Even so, your crazy to think HTC will win the teams classification as on the mountains stages they will be way behind saxo as the sprint stages won't do much to that classification. You are still wrong.

That's probably true, but I haven't said anything wrong.
Anyway prediction has never been my thing, so I really don't care that much.

If the impossibility of HTC winning the team classification somehow should become true. Don't expect me to get down from my high horse anytime soon

 

[Nick777]

1. Contador
2. A Schleck
3. D Menchov
4. F Schleck
5. C Evans
6-10. Who cares.

KOM - Evans
Points - No idea

- Armstrong to withdraw/be withdrawn under dramatic circumstances within the last 24 hours before the race a la Jan/Basso in 2006 - and denies everything
- A big name goes down for doping mid race
- The tour disappoints compared to the Giro, forcing the organizers to finally take notice.

 

[Inner Peace]

I thought I might go for the tip that i've been considering for a few weeks now but had been waiting for the 5th or 6th TDF prediction thread to actually write it up

Somethings up, and something bad is going to happen...

1. Armstrong
2. Contador
3. Andy Schleck
4. Frank Schleck
5. Evans
6. Basso
7. Wiggins
8. Vandevelde
9. Kreuziger
10. Rogers

Points: Hagen

KOM: Samuel Sanchez

White: Andy Schleck

Combative: Samuel Sanchez

Team: Saxobank

Should be a good race tho, but it will be slightly unrealistic human performances!!

 

[mowie133]

i'm a betting kinda guy heres the odds to finish highest... crazy odds load up people on these
SCHLECK Frank 1.65 $
VINOKOUROV Alexandre 2.15

ARMSTRONG Lance 1.67 $
WIGGINS Bradley 2.10


EVANS Cadel 1.50 $
ROGERS Michael 2.45

easy money frank will kill vino
don't mind rogers over evans an armstrong over wiggins my presiction easy money

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Why do people always go for -almost- the same top 10 as the year previous?

When reality shows the top 10 of the Tour is very very different from year to year.

Just to prove my point:

2005:
1-Armstrong
2-Basso
3-Ullrich
4-Mancebo
5-Vinokourov
6-Leipheimer
7-Rasmussen
8-Evans
9-Landis
10-Pereiro

2006:
1-Landis
2-Pereiro
3-Klöden
4-Sastre
5-Evans
6-Menchov
7-Dessel
8-Moreau
9-Zubeldia
10-Rogers

Exactly 3, count them, 3 riders from previous year in top 10

2007:
1-Contador
2-Evans
3-Leipheimer
4-Sastre
5-Zubeldia
6-Valverde
7-Kirchen
8-Popovych
9-Astarloza
10-Pereiro

4 of the top 10 of 2006 make the top 10 this time...

2008:
1-Sastre
2-Evans
3-Kohl
4-Menchov
5-Vandevelde
6-F.Schleck
7-Sanchez G.
8-Kirchen
9-Valverde
10-Valjavec

Again 4 names of the top 10 of 2007 make the top 10 in 2008...

2009:
1-Contador
2-A.Schleck
3-Armstrong
4-Wiggins
5-F.Schleck
6-Klöden
7-Nibali
8-Vandevelde
9-Kreuziger
10-Le Mevel

And that's 2, yes, count them, 2 riders of 2008 making the top 10 in 2009

So why are all the predictions here more or less the top 10 of 2009 with just the order mixed up.

People, it isn't going to happen.

 

[Zerak-Tul]

Why do people always go for -almost- the same top 10 as the year previous?

When reality shows the top 10 of the Tour is very very different from year to year.

Just to prove my point:

2005:
1-Armstrong
2-Basso
3-Ullrich
4-Mancebo
5-Vinokourov
6-Leipheimer
7-Rasmussen
8-Evans
9-Landis
10-Pereiro

2006:
1-Landis
2-Pereiro
3-Klöden
4-Sastre
5-Evans
6-Menchov
7-Dessel
8-Moreau
9-Zubeldia
10-Rogers

Exactly 3, count them, 3 riders from previous year in top 10

2007:
1-Contador
2-Evans
3-Leipheimer
4-Sastre
5-Zubeldia
6-Valverde
7-Kirchen
8-Popovych
9-Astarloza
10-Pereiro

4 of the top 10 of 2006 make the top 10 this time...

2008:
1-Sastre
2-Evans
3-Kohl
4-Menchov
5-Vandevelde
6-F.Schleck
7-Sanchez G.
8-Kirchen
9-Valverde
10-Valjavec

Again 4 names of the top 10 of 2007 make the top 10 in 2008...

2009:
1-Contador
2-A.Schleck
3-Armstrong
4-Wiggins
5-F.Schleck
6-Klöden
7-Nibali
8-Vandevelde
9-Kreuziger
10-Le Mevel

And that's 2, yes, count them, 2 riders of 2008 making the top 10 in 2009

So why are all the predictions here more or less the top 10 of 2009 with just the order mixed up.

People, it isn't going to happen.

2006-2009 were not "standard" years.

2006 most favorites were out, so was armstrong This left a power vacum, basicly no "automatic favorites" until Contador shows up.

2008 all the astana people from 2007 were out

2009+2010 Pretty much every favorite riding in 2009 will be here as well this year.


And generally speaking the favorites are favorites for a reason, so it makes sense to predict that they do well. I mean who can predict that a guy like evans gets like 30th place ahead of time.

 

[Angliru]

I thought I might go for the tip that i've been considering for a few weeks now but had been waiting for the 5th or 6th TDF prediction thread to actually write it up

Somethings up, and something bad is going to happen...

1. Armstrong

Please no.

 

[Angliru]

And generally speaking the favorites are favorites for a reason, so it makes sense to predict that they do well. I mean who can predict that a guy like evans gets like 30th place ahead of time.

Just like ACF I always hope for and predict the best for Evans.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

You want me to go further back Zerak?

Because I will, and it will show exactly the same. Mostly it's just 4/5 names of the previous year returning in the top 10... the rest will fall short.

 

[jaylew]

So why are all the predictions here more or less the top 10 of 2009 with just the order mixed up.

People, it isn't going to happen.

So, lets see your top 10 with only 3-4 guys from last year in it. I see you criticizing other peoples picks, but I don't see your prediction here.

 

[ErmOkk]

So, lets see your top 10 with only 3-4 guys from last year in it. I see you criticizing other peoples picks, but I don't see your prediction here.

8 guys of the Rabo squad? :d Yea it's true that some top 10 riders can't manage to get that top form year after year so that mostly explains why only a few make it top 10 again. Obviously in 2006 all the main favourites were kicked out . This year it's pretty obvious that most top 10 of last year are getting in some great form again, so I think this year it will be more than 5 guys again . Statistics are quite meaningless with all those factors involved like 3rd party devices .

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

So, lets see your top 10 with only 3-4 guys from last year in it. I see you criticizing other peoples picks, but I don't see your prediction here.

Why would I want to predict something as unpredictable as cycling?
You have as much chance of getting it right as winning the lottery.
Not going to.

 

[Anonymous]

written in anguish re LA

Please no.

please please pretty please, no, non, nein, naheen, la
charter member of the "ABL" club (anybody but L)

 

[auscyclefan94]

Just like ACF I always hope for and predict the best for Evans.

Then you will predict him to be number 1 at the tour.

Please no.

i know, it is hard to think what the forum will be like if that happens.

2006-2009 were not "standard" years.

2006 most favorites were out, so was armstrong This left a power vacum, basicly no "automatic favorites" until Contador shows up.

2008 all the astana people from 2007 were out

2009+2010 Pretty much every favorite riding in 2009 will be here as well this year.


And generally speaking the favorites are favorites for a reason, so it makes sense to predict that they do well. I mean who can predict that a guy like evans gets like 30th place ahead of time.

Dekker T is right. You usually have a breakaway guy in the top 10 and few others who had circumstances go there way in the tour who won't the next year. You also have people who had a bad year come back with a vengance and do very well (that will be cadel this year).

I think peoples predictions are a bit mundane and need to think outside of the square as this route looks unpredicatable and radical enough to cause some surprises. I like my top 10 prediction quite a lot.

 

[jaylew]

Why would I want to predict something as unpredictable as cycling?
You have as much chance of getting it right as winning the lottery.
Not going to.

Cycling is really not that unpredictable, DT.

 

[auscyclefan94]

BOB ROLL"S PREDICTIONS
1) Lance Armstrong (USA) Team RadioShack: It is never a good idea to bet against Lance Armstrong and especially this year, Lance is climbing great right now and in this year's tour the long time trial doesn't come until the last Saturday.

2) Cadel Evans (AUS) Team BMC: The rainbow curse has been lifted somehow and the reigning world champ is riding high

3) Alberto Contador (SPA) Team Astana: This will not be contador's year, in fact if alexander vinokurov has his way it might not even be Contador's team Astana that he is riding for!

Because putting Lance 1st is a hope vote he must think CE will win

PHIL LIGGETT"S PREDICTIONS (which he changes like dirty underwear)
1) Alberto Contador (SPA) Team Astana: Only a fool would bet against Alberto winning again, but it is not a foregone conclusion. He will not have the guidance of Johan Bruyneel this time around and more, Bruyneel knows how he thinks and this could work against him. It is difficult to imagine anyone out-climbing the Spaniard, but he had better pay attention in the opening week of flat and dangerous roads.

2) Frank Schleck (LUX) Team Saxo Bank: Frank's victory in the Tour de Suisse after riding the best time trial of his life has projected him in to the favourites' department. His victory last Sunday in the Luxembourg road race championship, shows he is ready to outride his brother Andy and step on to the podium this time.

3) Lance Armstrong (USA) Team RadioShack:I confess this is more in hope than belief, but Lance has fought the odds all season to be ready and his rides in the Tours of Luxembourg and Suisse have shown that he is. Having announced this will be his 13th and last Tour de France, he will want to let us all know he has been a part of it.

 

[blaxland]

BOB ROLL"S PREDICTIONS
1) Lance Armstrong (USA) Team RadioShack: It is never a good idea to bet against Lance Armstrong and especially this year, Lance is climbing great right now and in this year's tour the long time trial doesn't come until the last Saturday.

2) Cadel Evans (AUS) Team BMC: The rainbow curse has been lifted somehow and the reigning world champ is riding high

3) Alberto Contador (SPA) Team Astana: This will not be contador's year, in fact if alexander vinokurov has his way it might not even be Contador's team Astana that he is riding for!

Because putting Lance 1st is a hope vote he must think CE will win

PHIL LIGGETT"S PREDICTIONS (which he changes like dirty underwear)
1) Alberto Contador (SPA) Team Astana: Only a fool would bet against Alberto winning again, but it is not a foregone conclusion. He will not have the guidance of Johan Bruyneel this time around and more, Bruyneel knows how he thinks and this could work against him. It is difficult to imagine anyone out-climbing the Spaniard, but he had better pay attention in the opening week of flat and dangerous roads.

2) Frank Schleck (LUX) Team Saxo Bank: Frank's victory in the Tour de Suisse after riding the best time trial of his life has projected him in to the favourites' department. His victory last Sunday in the Luxembourg road race championship, shows he is ready to outride his brother Andy and step on to the podium this time.

3) Lance Armstrong (USA) Team RadioShack:I confess this is more in hope than belief, but Lance has fought the odds all season to be ready and his rides in the Tours of Luxembourg and Suisse have shown that he is. Having announced this will be his 13th and last Tour de France, he will want to let us all know he has been a part of it.

Lets hope Bob Roll gets it right this time........Cmon Cadel....Cmon Dodger..

 

[El Imbatido]

Ha ha......i love the part how Phil Liggett says only a fool would better against Contador winning.........and then look who didn't choose Contador to win

 

[Inner Peace]

Armstrong leaves his mark on the Tour de France for record 8th crown

Okay this is it, i'm going for it - At the start of this thread I changed my Tour prediction to have Armstrong on top over Contador and Andy Schleck

That was a half-ars3d prediction, but now i'm serious... This will be the story of the Tour:

Prologue: Lance comes in 30 seconds behind guys like Martin, Cancellara and Wiggins

Cobbles: Radioshack puts the hammer down. GC contenders able to hang on include Wiggins, T Martin, Rogers, Vande Velde, Zabriskie, LL Sanchez, Kloden/Leepy/Armstrong (obviously) AND VINOKOUROV... but key guys to lose time are the Schleck brothers/Fugslang, Contador, Evans, Gesink/Menchov, Sastre and the other featherweight pretenders = Wiggins or Martin in yellow with Rogers, VDV, Radio guys, Vino within same time as prologue results. Other contenders about 2-3 minutes behind yellow jersey, and therefore 1.5-2.5 minutes behind Armstrong

First mountains (stage 7,8,9): very little effective attacking. Not steep enough. Radioshack controls pace up mountains, Contador, Evans and Frank Schleck get away towards the end on stage 8 and gain 10-20 seconds. Andy struggles and stays in the Radio group. some pretenders lose a bit of time to the Radio stronghold. Wiggins/Martin stay in yellow

Second mountains (stage 14-17): 14 - Andy, Wiggins, Martin and Sastre dropped on the penultimate (massive!) climb as Radio and Astana battle their red and blue trains to set the pace. Contador attacks with F Schleck and some pretenders like Fugslang, Gesink gaining 30-40 seconds. Vino/Evans stays with Radio, and attacks before end of stage gainining 10 seconds. Other pretenders lose some time (VDV, Rogers and Basso etc). One of Radio three take yellow (i think Kloden about 10 sec ahead of The Boss)

15/16 reasonably controlled by Radio, with some contenders like Gesink and Fugslang who lost massive time on cobbles are given a long leash to gain some time. Contador saves legs for an all-out assault on the Tourmalet the next day

17 - The race is decided today. Radio are incredibly controlled, Contador attacks early, and takes Frank and Andy Schleck, Evans, Armstrong and Kloden with him to form a small group. Guys like Vino, VDV, Rogers and Basso form the second group and lose significant time (about 5-6mins). Contador keeps attacking, and continuely Andy schleck (who is well down on time) closes the gap for Frank, Kloden closes the gap for Armstrong. Evans battles but courageously hangs on to Armstrong's wheel. Contador red lines once to many. Frank capitalises, and Andy leads him out up the mountain to gain 20-30 seconds, Frank gives Andy the stage since he is out of the GC race. Contador, Armstrong come in together. Armstrong offers 'the hand' to Contador to thank him for a great race. Armstrong knows that being over a minute ahead, he can defend in the time trial. Evans comes in ahead of Klodi who dropped back about 3 minutes after Conti stopped attacking to allow Armstrong the lead in the race. Armstrong in Yellow for the first time since 2005

Stage 19: Time trial. 51km

Armstrong is in yellow, Frank is second, Contador third, Evans fourth and Kloden fifth, with 3 minutes between the top 5.

Kloden is told to set the time checks for Armstrong. He aces the TT, only losing 20 seconds to a fresh tony martin and 10 sec to a tired Cancellara. Frank loses 1.5 minutes to contador. Evans beats conti by 15 seconds. Armstrong comes in 30 seconds behind AC in the TT and wins Tour de France

Armstrong doesn't win a single stage in the Tour.

Final GC Result:

Armstrong
Contador at 1'15''
Frank Schleck at 1'45"
Evans at 2'25"
Kloden at 2'55"

5-10: Made up of possibly Andy Schleck, Rogers, Basso (who was anonymous the whole race), Leipheimer and VDV

No need to watch guys!

This is my last post until the Tour is over. I'll repost this at the end to see how much I was wrong/right in my Tour de Farce prediction!!

 

[sashimono]

I predict with all the GC drama they may fail to haul in some 15-20 min breaks... and some under the radar rider will get motivated and keep enough time thru the mountains to end up with a podium spot. Would be funny anyway.

 

[pedaling squares]

PHIL LIGGETT"S PREDICTIONS ...
1) Alberto Contador ...He will not have the guidance of Johan Bruyneel this time around...

Yes, it is going to be hard for Alberto to ride well this month without that special guidance Bruyneel gave him in 2009. With friends like that...

 

[auscyclefan94]

Okay this is it, i'm going for it - At the start of this thread I changed my Tour prediction to have Armstrong on top over Contador and Andy Schleck

That was a half-ars3d prediction, but now i'm serious... This will be the story of the Tour:

Prologue: Lance comes in 30 seconds behind guys like Martin, Cancellara and Wiggins

Cobbles: Radioshack puts the hammer down. GC contenders able to hang on include Wiggins, T Martin, Rogers, Vande Velde, Zabriskie, LL Sanchez, Kloden/Leepy/Armstrong (obviously) AND VINOKOUROV... but key guys to lose time are the Schleck brothers/Fugslang, Contador, Evans, Gesink/Menchov, Sastre and the other featherweight pretenders = Wiggins or Martin in yellow with Rogers, VDV, Radio guys, Vino within same time as prologue results. Other contenders about 2-3 minutes behind yellow jersey, and therefore 1.5-2.5 minutes behind Armstrong

First mountains (stage 7,8,9): very little effective attacking. Not steep enough. Radioshack controls pace up mountains, Contador, Evans and Frank Schleck get away towards the end on stage 8 and gain 10-20 seconds. Andy struggles and stays in the Radio group. some pretenders lose a bit of time to the Radio stronghold. Wiggins/Martin stay in yellow

Second mountains (stage 14-17): 14 - Andy, Wiggins, Martin and Sastre dropped on the penultimate (massive!) climb as Radio and Astana battle their red and blue trains to set the pace. Contador attacks with F Schleck and some pretenders like Fugslang, Gesink gaining 30-40 seconds. Vino/Evans stays with Radio, and attacks before end of stage gainining 10 seconds. Other pretenders lose some time (VDV, Rogers and Basso etc). One of Radio three take yellow (i think Kloden about 10 sec ahead of The Boss)

15/16 reasonably controlled by Radio, with some contenders like Gesink and Fugslang who lost massive time on cobbles are given a long leash to gain some time. Contador saves legs for an all-out assault on the Tourmalet the next day

17 - The race is decided today. Radio are incredibly controlled, Contador attacks early, and takes Frank and Andy Schleck, Evans, Armstrong and Kloden with him to form a small group. Guys like Vino, VDV, Rogers and Basso form the second group and lose significant time (about 5-6mins). Contador keeps attacking, and continuely Andy schleck (who is well down on time) closes the gap for Frank, Kloden closes the gap for Armstrong. Evans battles but courageously hangs on to Armstrong's wheel. Contador red lines once to many. Frank capitalises, and Andy leads him out up the mountain to gain 20-30 seconds, Frank gives Andy the stage since he is out of the GC race. Contador, Armstrong come in together. Armstrong offers 'the hand' to Contador to thank him for a great race. Armstrong knows that being over a minute ahead, he can defend in the time trial. Evans comes in ahead of Klodi who dropped back about 3 minutes after Conti stopped attacking to allow Armstrong the lead in the race. Armstrong in Yellow for the first time since 2005

Stage 19: Time trial. 51km

Armstrong is in yellow, Frank is second, Contador third, Evans fourth and Kloden fifth, with 3 minutes between the top 5.

Kloden is told to set the time checks for Armstrong. He aces the TT, only losing 20 seconds to a fresh tony martin and 10 sec to a tired Cancellara. Frank loses 1.5 minutes to contador. Evans beats conti by 15 seconds. Armstrong comes in 30 seconds behind AC in the TT and wins Tour de France

Armstrong doesn't win a single stage in the Tour.

Final GC Result:

Armstrong
Contador at 1'15''
Frank Schleck at 1'45"
Evans at 2'25"
Kloden at 2'55"

5-10: Made up of possibly Andy Schleck, Rogers, Basso (who was anonymous the whole race), Leipheimer and VDV

No need to watch guys!

This is my last post until the Tour is over. I'll repost this at the end to see how much I was wrong/right in my Tour de Farce prediction!!

I am sorry but I just don't see that happening. Even if LA gets time on AC, LA will lose massive amounts of time on the climbs. Yes he came 2nd at Tds but the main climbing stage showed how average he really is. Bottle wwill finish ahead of him.

Blaxland, we don't want LA to win!

 

[blaxland]

I am sorry but I just don't see that happening. Even if LA gets time on AC, LA will lose massive amounts of time on the climbs. Yes he came 2nd at Tds but the main climbing stage showed how average he really is. Bottle wwill finish ahead of him.

Blaxland, we don't want LA to win!

Totally agree Auscyclefan94,he won't win.......

 

[Sasquatch]

Points Jersey
1. Thor Hushovd
2. Mark Cavendish
3. Tyler Farrar

King of the Mountain
1. Egoi Martinez
2. Eros Capecchi
3. Thomas Voeckler

White Jersey
1. Andy Schleck
2. Roman Kreuziger
3. Robert Gesink

Teams Classification
1. Liquigas
2. RadioShack
3. Saxo Bank

Top 10
1. Alberto Contador
2. Andy Schleck
3. Denis Menchov
4. Joaquim Rodriguez
5. Samuel Sanchez
6. Lance Armstrong
7. Ivan Basso
8. Roman Kreuziger
9. Frank Schleck
10. Bradley Wiggins

 

[theyoungest]

BOB ROLL"S PREDICTIONS
3) Alberto Contador (SPA) Team Astana: This will not be contador's year, in fact if alexander vinokurov has his way it might not even be Contador's team Astana that he is riding for!

American sports journalism continues to be fascinating. Vino will most certainly be of more use to Bertie than Armstrong was last year.

Luckily these Roll and Liggett characters play no role whatsoever in European media.