TDF Sprints & Green Jersey

[spalco]

If Cav started the sprint in the same position as Sagan, he'd have finished 7th as well. So it's not really relevant.

Generally, poor positioning is the rider's own fault (everyone's unlucky sometimes of course), and in the end it doesn't really matter what exactly was the reason for not winning.

I suppose your point is, that this 7th place doesn't say anything about Sagan's form, but Cavendish rarely makes mistakes like that regardless of form.

 

[Pulpstar]

This is a 2 horse race, Cav vs Sagan. The chance neither of them wins it I'd put at around 5%.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

If Cav started the sprint in the same position as Sagan, he'd have finished 7th as well. So it's not really relevant.

Haven't seen the stage, so I'll take your word for it that the combination of Sagan's positioning ability and the lead-out of his team left him high and dry, and that this has no relevance for the future.

 

[karlboss]

This is a 2 horse race, Cav vs Sagan. The chance neither of them wins it I'd put at around 5%.

So do the bookies, I'd say 5 % is too high. The only chance neither takes it, is if they both crash out.

 

[Netserk]

I'd give Greipel more than 5%.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I'd give Greipel more than 5%.

Kittel has more chance than Griepel on recent form. But in general, the green will be won by someone who wins at least a few sprints, and very rarely finishes outside top 3, so certainly one of those 2 would have a decent crack at Sagan if Cav crashes out early.

 

[Netserk]

Kittel has more chance than Griepel on recent form. But in general, the green will be won by someone who wins at least a few sprints, and very rarely finishes outside top 3, so certainly one of those 2 would have a decent crack at Sagan if Cav crashes out early.

Greipel can survive hills. Kittel can't.

Greipel is also much more consistent.

 

[Spectateur]

So do the bookies, I'd say 5 % is too high. The only chance neither takes it, is if they both crash out.

Yes, crashes,that will be an important factor and brings in the luck aspect. The T de F seems to have too many crashes,particularly in the first week, compared with the other GTs.
Much will depend on the run-in and the final km of the "bunch sprint" stages.

 

[wirral]

Yes, crashes,that will be an important factor and brings in the luck aspect. The T de F seems to have too many crashes,particularly in the first week, compared with the other GTs.
Much will depend on the run-in and the final km of the "bunch sprint" stages.

You are right about the crashes. The roads are narrow in the mountains in Corsica too.

Having said that, both Cav and Sagan tend to avoid in-peloton crashes and having more muscle than the climbers tend to sustain less damage if they do, so I would be very surprised to see either or them crash out never mind both.

Let's hope there are few such injuries to anyone.

 

[Twenty-Nem]

Don't forget Boasson Hagen, he can be a threat for the green jersey

 

[Pricey_sky]

Don't forget Boasson Hagen, he can be a threat for the green jersey

It depends on how much domestique duty he is going to be doing. He will struggle to get top 5 on the flat stages and he won't get near near Sagan on the tougher stages too.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Time to start some Bos hype too by the looks of it - had a few good wins this year.

Cav makes solid start to his effort to win the race without winning a stage again.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Time to start some Bos hype too by the looks of it - had a few good wins this year.

Cav makes solid start to his effort to win the race without winning a stage again.

Bos was not in the pre selection for Blanco if im not mistaking.

 

[wirral]

Bos was not in the pre selection for Blanco if im not mistaking.

All the more reason to start some hype.

Facts should never get in the way of an 'up phase' in the hyping cycle.

 

[nick101]

sky will go into the tour with a team based 100% based around froome. That being said ebh could be given that opportunity if froome crashes out, but with sky so strong I can't see that happening. argos shimano is based entirely around kittel but degenkolb is also a strong sprinter for them. cannondale will have a some support for moser but sagan will be the main priority. van den broeck usually doesn't need much support for the mountains so mainly a sprinter team for griepel with lotto??

on another note sagan was outsprinted in an uphill sprint which really surprised me. Thoughts on that?? was it bad positioning or something like that which made him lose??

 

[Ruby United]

I can see Cav winning stage 1 and then losing the jersey to Sagan, who comes third on stage one and wins stage 2.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Have to say, given the parcours and Sagan's inability to win a sprint which suited him against a field without the strongest guys, I'm really pretty surprised by the odds on betfair.

Cav was favourite, then Sagan became favourite after winning the type of stage which is really pretty rare in this TDF route, and then not winning the type of stages which are common doesn't seem to have had much effect.

 

[kingjr]

@nick101, Kristoff was better, simple as that. Sagan went quite early, but I doubt it had much influence on the final result.

 

[nick101]

ok interesting to hear, doesn't bode too well for the tour. although hushovd only needed one stage, podiumed on a few stages and collected the intermediate sprints on stages where htc couldn't have influence. sagan is climbing as well as some gc riders so could collect intermediate points on mountain stages like hushovd

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

ok interesting to hear, doesn't bode too well for the tour. although hushovd only needed one stage, podiumed on a few stages and collected the intermediate sprints on stages where htc couldn't have influence. sagan is climbing as well as some gc riders so could collect intermediate points on mountain stages like hushovd

Points system has changed since then, and there are pretty few stages where the intermediate is placed so that Sagan can reach and Cav can't.

 

[puffin]

Ster ZLM Toer 14/06/2013

1. Kittel
2. Greipel
3. Cavendish

Looks like we have all been over-estimating Cav's form on this thread. How many of his victories this year have been against good sprinters?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Didn't win a sprint there last year either.

1st sprint -

1. KITTEL Marcel ARG 3h30'05" 20
2. RENSHAW Mark RAB 10
3. CAVENDISH Mark SKY 5

2nd sprint -

1. GREIPEL André LTB 4h13'26" 20
2. CAVENDISH Mark SKY 10
3. RENSHAW Mark RAB 5

 

[Afrank]

1. Kittel
2. Greipel
3. Cavendish

Looks like we have all been over-estimating Cav on this thread. Game on.

I expect we will see Kittel and Greipel provide just as much competition for Cav as Sagan will. Sagan being able to climb the best of the 4 and get in breaks/win the harder stages makes him the 2nd favorite. But with the amount of flat stages both the other 2 will be able to pick up a good amount of points to keep them in the fight.

 

[kingjr]

Didn't win a sprint there last year either.

Yes, and?

Green Jersey Classification in last years Tour

1 Peter Sagan (SVK) Green jersey Liquigas-Cannondale 421
2 André Greipel (GER) Lotto-Belisol 280
3 Matthew Goss (AUS) Orica-GreenEDGE 268
4 Mark Cavendish (GBR) Team Sky 220

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

If you don't like some added facts, that's really not my problem.

I didn't propose an interpretation.

Just like you didn't propose an interpretation on the added fact you just posted, because you know interpretation would explain the lack of relevance.

Some more facts - look away now if squeemish -

Cavendish Sprints won in June Sprints won in TDF
2008 ------------ 1 --------- 4
2009 ------------ 2 --------- 6
2010 ------------ 0 --------- 5
2011 ------------ 0 --------- 5
2012 ------------ 0 --------- 3
2013 ------------ 0 --------- ?