TDF Sprints & Green Jersey

[kingjr]

If you don't like some added facts, that's really not my problem.

Great, but I do in fact like added facts

 

[lastplacerider]

Not so sure stages 2 & 3 will see Cav, Greipel, or Kittel sprinting for the win. Looks more like Sagan, EBH. How many sprint stages will Kittel have to allow Degenkolb to be Argos' top man?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

2, 3 and Lyon seem likely for Degenkolb.

2 I suspect Cav & Greipel could make. Cannondale probably the only team with a real interest in driving hard for the climbs and then 60km to the line. Sky won't burn any matches for EBH. Suppose given Kittel is a total no hoper for that one Argos may give it a go too.

 

[Steady]

Ebh

What are your thoughts about EBH winning some stages this year? Or will Sky have complete focus on Froome? I was thinking about EBH for winning stage 2 or stage 3.

Thanks

 

[cycladianpirate]

Amazed that no one has done a spreadsheet on this. Someone with some stat skills should be able to give us a guide surely?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Amazed that no one has done a spreadsheet on this. Someone with some stat skills should be able to give us a guide surely?

What exactly do you have in mind? An analysis of the scoring system? I popped a rough one in an earlier post. Or an analysis of who will win the sprints? ProCyclingStats has decent head to head functionality.

 

[Pricey_sky]

I wouldn't read too much into Cav not winning any sprints in June, as someone has already pointed out he just gets miles into his legs and sprints at maybe 90%. Be sure that come July he will be in top shape and will take a lot of beating on the flat stages.

 

[Steady]

The LEAD-OUT MEN!

Does anyone know who the LEAD-OUT MEN will be for the different "sprint" teams that will be present in top 5-7
Could anyone help me fill in the blanks in my list?

Argos-Shimano: Is Veelers the lead-out man? Or will Kittel/Degenkolb help eachother?
BMC:Lead-out man for Gilbert is?
Liquigas: Sagan, the main sprinter. THE boss! But who will help him?
FDJ: Lead-out for Bouhanni, the sprinter?
Garmin: Farrar, is the main sprinter. But who will lead out for him?
Katusha: Kristoff, is the main sprinter. But who will lead out for him?
Lampre: Cimolai is the main sprinter. Lead-out man is?
Lotto-Belisol: Obviously, Greipel is the sprinter. Greg Henderson the lead-out man?
Movistar: Rojas, is the main sprinter. Anyone who ever will help him?
OPQS: Here Gert Steegmans will be the lead-out man I know.
Orica-Greenedge: Very unsure who will lead out Goss?
Radioshack: Gallopin is the sprinter I presume?

Appreciate any help, it's for a Tour Manager game

 

[Netserk]

BMC:Lead-out man for Gilbert is?

I don't think he will sprint in any stages.

 

[trevim]

Does anyone know who the LEAD-OUT MEN will be for the different "sprint" teams that will be present in top 5-7
Could anyone help me fill in the blanks in my list?

Argos-Shimano: Is Veelers the lead-out man? Or will Kittel/Degenkolb help eachother?
BMC:Lead-out man for Gilbert is?
Liquigas: Sagan, the main sprinter. THE boss! But who will help him?
FDJ: Lead-out for Bouhanni, the sprinter?
Garmin: Farrar, is the main sprinter. But who will lead out for him?
Katusha: Kristoff, is the main sprinter. But who will lead out for him?
Lampre: Cimolai is the main sprinter. Lead-out man is?
Lotto-Belisol: Obviously, Greipel is the sprinter. Greg Henderson the lead-out man?
Movistar: Rojas, is the main sprinter. Anyone who ever will help him?
OPQS: Here Gert Steegmans will be the lead-out man I know.
Orica-Greenedge: Very unsure who will lead out Goss?
Radioshack: Gallopin is the sprinter I presume?

Appreciate any help, it's for a Tour Manager game

Argos-Shimano: Is Veelers the lead-out man? Or will Kittel/Degenkolb help eachother? Definitely Veelers is the last man. Degenkolb just riding in the train is my guess.
BMC:Lead-out man for Gilbert is? He's no sprinter.
Liquigas: Sagan, the main sprinter. THE boss! But who will help him? He doens't have a true lead out but Sabatini is quite good and also Moser, Koren.
FDJ: Lead-out for Bouhanni, the sprinter? Soupe is a very good lead out men.
Garmin: Farrar, is the main sprinter. But who will lead out for him? Rasmussen?
Katusha: Kristoff, is the main sprinter. But who will lead out for him? Purito
Lampre: Cimolai is the main sprinter. Lead-out man is? His talent/results don't deserve one. Vigano, if it comes to that.
Lotto-Belisol: Obviously, Greipel is the sprinter. Greg Henderson the lead-out man? Yes. Probably Roelandts-Sieberg-Henderson-Greipel.
Movistar: Rojas, is the main sprinter. Anyone who ever will help him? Maybe Gutierrez can help him position in the last km's but he's no lead out man.
OPQS: Here Gert Steegmans will be the lead-out man I know. Don't be so sure. Trentin is riding very well this season.
Orica-Greenedge: Very unsure who will lead out Goss? Impey-Lancaster-Goss is my pick.
Radioshack: Gallopin is the sprinter I presume? He's no sprinter, only in the intermediate stages of which there are very few. If it comes to that, probably only Irizar can give him a hand.

 

[kingjr]

That's pretty accurate, I would add Offredo to FDJ, Sieberg is most likely to do his turn before Roelandts and I'm pretty sure that Steegmans will be the last man for Cavendish, he has been great doing that in the last 8 years. Trentin will be in the train though.

 

[SKSemtex]

2, 3 and Lyon seem likely for Degenkolb.

2 I suspect Cav & Greipel could make. Cannondale probably the only team with a real interest in driving hard for the climbs and then 60km to the line. Sky won't burn any matches for EBH. Suppose given Kittel is a total no hoper for that one Argos may give it a go too.

Probably Orica might help. Chances of Goss are not very high against CAV, Griepel and Kittel. Stage 2 might be their biggest shot for yellow in years. We will see. I am really looking forward for this stage. And stage 3 , of course.

 

[search]

only problem is that (so far) this year Goss is climbing worse than ever before

 

[PedalCastro]

What will Bouhanni be like? Can he win a stage? Top 5 consistently?

 

[kingjr]

Don't think he will win a stage, Top 5 every now and then is realistic though.

 

[SKSemtex]

only problem is that (so far) this year Goss is climbing worse than ever before

Gerrans

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Gerrans

Gerrens has no more chance against Sagan than Goss does against the rest, and I would think it would be a pretty bad blow to his ego and team harmony if they didn't at least act like he was a good climbing sprinter on that day.

 

[Steady]

Gerrens has no more chance against Sagan than Goss does against the rest, and I would think it would be a pretty bad blow to his ego and team harmony if they didn't at least act like he was a good climbing sprinter on that day.

Hmm, so Albasini would probably be a better pick for stage 2 and 3, than Gerrans?

 

[Jericho]

sky will go into the tour with a team based 100% based around froome. That being said ebh could be given that opportunity if froome crashes out, but with sky so strong I can't see that happening. argos shimano is based entirely around kittel but degenkolb is also a strong sprinter for them. cannondale will have a some support for moser but sagan will be the main priority. van den broeck usually doesn't need much support for the mountains so mainly a sprinter team for griepel with lotto??

on another note sagan was outsprinted in an uphill sprint which really surprised me. Thoughts on that?? was it bad positioning or something like that which made him lose??

EBH finished 5th in the green jersey last year when the team was entirely about Wiggins. And had Cavendish. And had Froome. Granted, most of his points came on non-Sprints. But he was 6th the prior two years when he had some freedom to sprint.

He obviously not in the elite Sprinters group. And he's not the overall rider that Sagan is. And the odds of him winning Green are about zero as they come, but he'll likely do quite well overall. I'm sure EBH will be given some freedom to do his thing. Hell, he might even be in yellow after the TTT.

 

[Steady]

Who are the favorites to Stage 2 and 3?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Who are the favorites to Stage 2 and 3?

Sagan is favourite for both.

 

[seaby71]

I think sagan will win green. Although cav will win his fair share of stages he will more than likely be docked points at time for finishing outside the time limit on some of the harder mountainous stages.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Having a look at the road book and quite a few of the finishes look like they're designed by people who like crashes.

 

[Poursuivant]

Bad turns in the last K?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Stage 1 has an extended U turn in the last 2k, stage 12 & 13 both have nasty looking turns in the last 500m.