TDF Stage 13 - Saturday, July 17 2010, Rodez - Revel, 195 km

[The Hitch]

Looks like a bunch sprint, though cav might not make it over the cat 3 climb at the end.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Probably a bunch sprint, but someone strong like a Chavanel/Cancellera/Pozzato/Flecha type could launch on that last little bump and maybe take it. If it is a bunch gallop, Cavendish won't win because of the hill before.

 

[Cobblestones]

It was a very fast ride today and this looks a bit lumpy. I'd say a break could have a decent chance. And sunday is a tough climb. Maybe the peloton is taking it easy.

ETA: add to that that Cav has lost his lead out man, Garmin its sprinter and Hushovd probably prefers to lose small points behind a break rather than big points in a bunch sprint. Moreover, HTC already has three wins, Ale Jet has two. They might just all look at each other and decide it's not their turn to chase and Saxo might just be too cooked after today's effort to contribute.

 

[The Barb]

Probably a bunch sprint, but someone strong like a Chavanel/Cancellera/Pozzato/Flecha type could launch on that last little bump and maybe take it. If it is a bunch gallop, Cavendish won't win because of the hill before.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Check out the profile of Stage 19 from last year, which Cavendish won. That was a more difficult climb just as close to the finish. And he also got that win without help from Renshaw, who finished quarter of an hour back.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stage-19/map

 

[Jamsque]

Cav's clearly on good form right now, I think that climb shouldn't be too much for him. The real question is whether Columbia can control the race with the riders they have left, especially given that they will get no help from Farrar-less Garmin.

 

[sometriguy]

cav will win assuming the break away doesn't stay away.

cav will make it over the climb with the main bunch regardless and probably win the sprint for green jersey points He'll make it over because the break won't have any major threats in it, so it will either already bee reeled in by this point in time, or they will have given up. Either way, the peloton will go over the cat 3 at a fairly boring pace.

I'd watch out for Jens in the break!

 

[Yossarian12]

Garmin and Sky need to put someone in the break (Maskaant/Vansummeren and Flecha, hopefully) with the usual French and Eastern European representatives, and look to hold it to the finish. Then the peloton keeps it honest so it isn't a joke, and maybe see some fireworks from the bunch at the end. If it all comes together prior to the final climb, I hope to see lots of attacks off the front to disrupt the HTC train.

I also have a feeling we will hear from/see Chavanel and Cunego tomorrow. Maybe Voeckler as well.

 

[Ryaguas]

Probably a bunch sprint, but someone strong like a Chavanel/Cancellera/Pozzato/Flecha type could launch on that last little bump and maybe take it. If it is a bunch gallop, Cavendish won't win because of the hill before.

Well Pozzato is not in La Grande Boucle and Spartacus is not going anywhere since he is doing a totally domestique labour for Andy...

This stage is taylor made for a breakaway... prolly the teams are not going to burn their matches, besides the sprinter teams, cuz on sunday we have a the first day in Les Pyrénees and will be a really tough day...

Winners: Chavanel, Sandy Casar, Jose Ivan Gutierrez or Vino (if he had the green light from El Pistolero)
Darkhorses: Ale-jet ALL THE WAY if the breakaway can't survive

I think that is difficult for a breakaway to survive but they could manage to make it if not... well... Ale-jet will take the stage victory and Thor will lose La maillot vert, Thor is not going to be in the Top 10 in the sprint... he has to pay for the effort that he made today...

GO ALE-JET!!!!!

 

[David Suro]

Garmin, Sky, and Radioshack now have nothing better to do that attack as opportunists. Dashed GC hopes and broken sprinters have given these teams "nothiing to lose'.

Other teams came into the TdF with nothing to lose and have been racing as opportunists every day.

I think Jens will have as calm a day as possible to save some energy to help Andy in the mountains. Vino is completely unpredictable, so he might just decide to have a crack at it, even though he will likely need to recover some from today.

Hopefully it will not be too dull of a day.

 

[Ferminal]

Cav will not win today. The break should stay, or an opportunist will win on the final hill.

 

[riobonito92]

Consider this:

Saxobank don't want to do any work ahead of the Pyrenees, Schleck says the team were very tired after chasing Vino all day.

Columbia don't want to chase because they've lost Renshaw and will say it is up to Cervelo and Lampre

Garmin have lost Farrar and don't have to work.

Lampre will let a break go to stop Hushovd getting points on the road.

Cervelo wore themselves out chasing shadows today.

So I predict a break will go early and long and stay away.

 

[Cobblestones]

Consider this:

Saxobank don't want to do any work ahead of the Pyrenees, Schleck says the team were very tired after chasing Vino all day.

Columbia don't want to chase because they've lost Renshaw and will say it is up to Cervelo and Lampre

Garmin have lost Farrar and don't have to work.

Lampre will let a break go to stop Hushovd getting points on the road.

Cervelo wore themselves out chasing shadows today.

So I predict a break will go early and long and stay away.

+1

Finally someone who agrees. I was beginning to feel lonely.

 

[Ferminal]

Tommy V is due.

 

[michaeld]

Jens, Thor, Vino in the breakaway.

 

[nvpacchi]

Tommy V is due.

So is Tommy D . Too bad he got left off the squad.

Rojas for the win. he's been consistently top 5 in sprints, and is good with bumps in the road.

 

[blaxland]

Breakaway to suceed and my tip for stage honours will be Mathew Lloyd omega/lotto...other riders to watch are C.Sorensen Saxo and T.Vouckler Bbox...no sprint finish today.

 

[hrotha]

Consider this:

Saxobank don't want to do any work ahead of the Pyrenees, Schleck says the team were very tired after chasing Vino all day.

Columbia don't want to chase because they've lost Renshaw and will say it is up to Cervelo and Lampre

Garmin have lost Farrar and don't have to work.

Lampre will let a break go to stop Hushovd getting points on the road.

Cervelo wore themselves out chasing shadows today.

So I predict a break will go early and long and stay away.

I agree for the most part, but Petacchi would beat Hushovd so Lampre would benefit from not letting the breakaway off the leash. I'm not sure they'll be willing to do the work, though. It's not like Petacchi is in any rush, what with having won two stages already.

 

[goggalor]

EBH to win from the break.

(I'm gonna keep tipping this till it happens! )

 

[The Barb]

Consider this:

Saxobank don't want to do any work ahead of the Pyrenees, Schleck says the team were very tired after chasing Vino all day.

Columbia don't want to chase because they've lost Renshaw and will say it is up to Cervelo and Lampre

Garmin have lost Farrar and don't have to work.

Lampre will let a break go to stop Hushovd getting points on the road.

Cervelo wore themselves out chasing shadows today.

So I predict a break will go early and long and stay away.

I agree with most of what you say except the bit about Columbia ... The loss of Renshaw is a disadvantage but his inability to help on Stage 19 last year didn't prevent Cavendish winning. They have nothing to ride for except stage wins in possible bunch finishes, so why let an opportunity pass.

The other thing is that they know if they can turn it into a bunch finish then Cavendish is more than 50% likely to win, whereas none of the other sprint teams could say their top sprinter gives them better than 10% chance of winning in a bunch sprint (except maybe Lampre).

So I think there's plenty of motivation for Columbia to chase a break and do everything they can to get Cavendish over the last climb.

This is why I think Cavendish at $6 on Betfair is good value.

If a breakaway does succeed I like Ivanov at $65.

 

[Scirea]

So I think there's plenty of motivation for Columbia to chase a break and do everything they can to get Cavendish over the last climb.

This is why I think Cavendish at $6 on Betfair is good value.

If a breakaway does succeed I like Ivanov at $65.

That's the catch for Columbia. They are two men down in the train so if they will chase all day they will run of people way too soon. They can't do that. If Eisel and Martin are tired before the last 10km, they are screwed. Other teams will box in Cav.

I'm almost sure the breakaway will get home.

 

[Punter]

EBH to win from the break.

(I'm gonna keep tipping this till it happens! )

I am with you on this one and will also be looking for Ciolek to get himself in the break.

Fancy the break to stick today - the riders must be stuffed after yesterday

 

[Dedelou]

Jens, Thor, Vino in the breakaway.

Can't imagine Vino on a breakaway tomorrow, but i can see him trying for the stage win once again on sundy top finish.
if he gets away..

 

[theswordsman]

I agree with the break idea. Caisse & RS are fighting for the Team Classification, so figure at least one of each. Vino should probably recover for Sunday, but Grivko or one of the other non mountain specialists should go. Add in guys fighting for points, wild carders showing they belong and a few stage hunters way down in the GC, and at least some of them could possibly stay away. Saxo could put Jens! in so they can take a rest day as leaders.

 

[craig1985]

Pineau to be in the break to try and get KOM points?

 

[2wheels]

Feels like another stage where the makeup of the break will determine everything. It could be another really tough day for Saxo-- there are just so many good guys within ten minutes of the lead, and a lot of them will probably try to get in a break. Rabo, Liquigas, and Radioshack all have multiple candidates within reach of the podium; if those teams start firing their bullets it'll be too many for Saxo to cover and a few good guys will get away, just like today. I expect an early game of chicken between Saxo and the sprinter's teams about who's going to chase. Wish I could watch the first hour-- but that's around 3 AM here in Arizona!