TDF Stage 15: Limoux - Montpellier 187km

[jobiwan]

The HTC choo-choo will own this again.

Cavendish
Greipel
Ciolek
Farrar
Boasson Hagen

 

[The Hitch]

The HTC choo-choo will own this again.

Cavendish

Wow. You actually bothered to make the prediction

On a stage as flat as this in the Tour, the rule is that you assume everyone who has a post in the thread is predicting Cavendish, unless specified otherwise.

In fact, if you say you think Cav will win then that is a tautology.

 

[hughmoore]

Im loving the tour, its been great from my perspective as a Cuddles Fanboy, would like to have seen Chris Horner up there also. I like Basso there also and glad Contador is still a threat, it makes a great race.

Not sure what you guys want, if you mean same as Giro when Contador smashes everyone, it would have been over on the first MTF then he could just follow wheel.

That whinning sniffling girl Shrek from Leoturd should learn how to Time Trial, he cant even take a turn in the Team Trial. Might as well sat in the car.

Cuddles has worked on his climbing to win the tour and continues to work on his TT, why cant Shrek.

Contador worked on his TT getting better every year, especially when Lance made his comeback.

Its called the "General Classification" for the all round rider, they have Poka Dot Jersey for Climbers.


Hugh

 

[Publicus]

andy_schleck Andy Schleck
the control happen in a restaurant so i had to walk with my urine sample true the tables where other people were having dinner!!!
2 hours ago

andy_schleck Andy Schleck
there were 1 h in between you guys must communicate a bit better!thats not good enough and shows no respect to the rider
2 hours ago
»

andy_schleck Andy Schleck
i never complain over the doping-control but today i had one after the finish an i arrive to the hotel an other on come on UCI ALFAD!!!!
2 hours ago

I wonder how long it took him to realize that they did that on purpose?

 

[dlwssonic]

really such strongcrosswinds? will be an interesting stage to watch. when do the crosswinds start.

 

[Random Direction]

Stage 15: Limoux - Montpellier 187km.

With a rest day following, this is a day for attacks, breakaways, perhaps the right sprinters.

From http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/1500/meteo.html - Winds : The wind blows from Northwest direction (he comes from the northwest). The wind will be 60/80 km/h to Agel. Agel then to Montpellier, the wind is always west-north-west to 40/50 km/h.

This will be a really strong cross-wind for the first half, with a cross-tail at the end. Combined with basically open fields (except for the part near the cat 4 climb), someone could create echelon carnage with a creative TTT just after a cross-wind break. Could also cause the peleton to bump into each other, causing crashes.

 

[Random Direction]

Cross-winds start before the end of the neutral zone, and will be worst in the first 20 km northern run before things move a bit more towards the east. Take a look at the route on Google Earth.

From my time coaching (x/c skiing) weather like this can turn a race upside down if someone isn't ready, and if someone is, a huge advantage can be made.

 

[ansimi]

A bit of a strange stage for a Sunday? Is there really good scenery or something?

I do like the potential for crosswinds and a nice breakaway but I don't think I'll set my alarm for this one. I'm on Tour Time though so I should be up for the finish at least.

I've actually enjoyed this Tour quite a bit so far.

 

[craig1985]

Four or five years ago the break would get 15 minutes and some random would win, but now with Bob Stapleton HTC will chase the break down and get the win. Lame.

I'll watch the highlights.

 

[auscyclefan94]

From http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/1500/meteo.html - Winds : The wind blows from Northwest direction (he comes from the northwest). The wind will be 60/80 km/h to Agel. Agel then to Montpellier, the wind is always west-north-west to 40/50 km/h.

This will be a really strong cross-wind for the first half, with a cross-tail at the end. Combined with basically open fields (except for the part near the cat 4 climb), someone could create echelon carnage with a creative TTT just after a cross-wind break. Could also cause the peleton to bump into each other, causing crashes.

Cross tail winds are the best. Easier to split the race apart than a head cross wind.

 

[dlwssonic]

Four or five years ago the break would get 15 minutes and some random would win, but now with Bob Stapleton HTC will chase the break down and get the win. Lame.

I'll watch the highlights.

I didnt watch cycling 4 our 5 years ago. but at that time why would the sprinters let the break take the win with such a flat profile.

 

[dlwssonic]

Cross tail winds are the best. Easier to split the race apart than a head cross wind.

I think that means massive echoleons which means BMC destroying in at the front with hincapie, burghardt, schar and quinziato

 

[auscyclefan94]

Imagine if they split the field...it would be all out carnage with everyone looking to hang onto the BMC motor train!

 

[dlwssonic]

Imagine if they split the field...it would be all out carnage with everyone looking to hang onto the BMC motor train!

BMC and HTC joining forces and taking no prisoners!!! saxo better be alert today they dont want to make the same mistake they made in stage1.

 

[Finn84]

Stages between Alps and Pyrenees (or vice versa) in last ten years:

2001: No stages, straight from Alps to Pyrenees using rest day
2002: One stage, won by David Millar (breakaway)
2003: Two stages, won by Jakob Piil and Juan Antonio Flecha (breakaways)
2004: One stage, won by Aitor González (breakaway)
2005: Two stages, won by David Moncoutié (breakaway) and Robbie McEwen (sprint)
2006: Three stages, won by Yaroslav Popovych, Jens Voigt (the stage where Pereiro took yellow) and Pierrick Fédrigo (breakaways)
2007: Three stages, won by Cédric Vasseur (breakaway), Robert Hunter and Tom Boonen (sprints)
2008: Four stages, won by Kurt Asle Arvesen (breakaway), Mark Cavendish twice and Óscar Freire (sprints)
2009: Five stages, won by Mark Cavendish twice (sprints), Nicki Sørensen, Heinrich Haussler and Sergei Ivanov (breakaways)
2010: Four steages, won by Sérgio Paulinho (breakaway), Mark Cavendish (sprint), Joaquim Rodríguez and Alexander Vinokourov (late stage attacks)

There are of course some with medium difficulty here, for example last year's stage to Mende. Last few years had the biggest amount of those stages. 2009 was a bit special in that case, with Monaco start they raced clockwise while visiting Pyrenees before the Alps.

 

[craig1985]

I didnt watch cycling 4 our 5 years ago. but at that time why would the sprinters let the break take the win with such a flat profile.

Transitional stage, everybody hot and tired and let a bunch of guys who are no threat to anybody go ahead and get the win. In 2004 we had a similar stage and similar profile and the break won by 14 minutes.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Not sure what you guys want, if you mean same as Giro when Contador smashes everyone, it would have been over on the first MTF then he could just follow wheel.

That whinning sniffling girl Shrek from Leoturd should learn how to Time Trial, he cant even take a turn in the Team Trial. Might as well sat in the car.

Cuddles has worked on his climbing to win the tour and continues to work on his TT, why cant Shrek.

Contador worked on his TT getting better every year, especially when Lance made his comeback.

Its called the "General Classification" for the all round rider, they have Poka Dot Jersey for Climbers.


Hugh

Yet Yet Again...

I am not asking for more mountain stages.

I am asking for a race which is paced better. The GC battle hasn't even started until the end of week 2 in this race. And the early stages of the race have featured a couple of pretty interesting uphill finishes, but apart from the TTT nothing that's opened up any gaps bigger than 10 seconds. The only thing that's done that is crashes. And the crashes have been increased in frequency and severity because of the GC being so tight that everybody has something they want to protect, leading to a péloton that's all trying to hurry to the front and all getting nervous about losing anything. And because of this, by the time we get to week 3 and the actual GC-relevant stages, half of the GC candidates have crashed out and gone home, or are still in the race but ailing and complete non-entities for the race (eg Gesink, Leipheimer).

So what we've had is 11 days where absolutely nothing except maybe the TTT is relevant to the GC, and then 10 days where the GC action is reduced because most of the GC guys have gone home.

We don't need more MTFs or more mountains. We don't even need different stages. We need a different order so that the yellow, green and polka dot battles are spread more evenly across the race. Or maybe just something like the Cholet ITT or the cat.2 finish to Super-Besse instead of the cat.3 one, to set the GC battle lines a bit more clearly and remove a few hangers-on contenders so they don't continue to need to be at the front and the péloton is less nervy and less likely to crash.

 

[dlwssonic]

Transitional stage, everybody hot and tired and let a bunch of guys who are no threat to anybody go ahead and get the win. In 2004 we had a similar stage and similar profile and the break won by 14 minutes.

that sounds really weird to me, wonder why the sprinters back then wouldnt want the stage. I guess im too used to HTC chasing down the breaks and keeping it at no more than 4 min for the whole stage.

 

[hrotha]

Having this stage on a Sunday is odd, but overall I wouldn't say the route has been bad so far. A long ITT before the mountains would probably have helped, but whose fault is it if the riders decide to do nothing with three perfectly good mountain stages?

 

[dlwssonic]

so are the possibility of echoleons very likely. or is there gonna be lots of speculation but in the end nothing happens.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Those perfectly good mountain stages were stages 12, 13 and 14 with no preceding ITT. Most of the crashes happened in stages 1-11, because we hadn't even had the chance of a GC shakedown. Entertaining though Mont des Alouettes, Mur-de-Brétagne and Super-Besse could be, they were never going to provide a real GC shakedown like a 25-30km ITT or a proper mountain stage would.

The mountain stages we've had (OK not the Thor one) have provided a GC shakedown - they've removed a lot of the chaff from contention, left us with the elites.

 

[hughmoore]

Those perfectly good mountain stages were stages 12, 13 and 14 with no preceding ITT. Most of the crashes happened in stages 1-11, because we hadn't even had the chance of a GC shakedown. Entertaining though Mont des Alouettes, Mur-de-Brétagne and Super-Besse could be, they were never going to provide a real GC shakedown like a 25-30km ITT or a proper mountain stage would.

The mountain stages we've had (OK not the Thor one) have provided a GC shakedown - they've removed a lot of the chaff from contention, left us with the elites.

A 40 to 50km ITT at the start would suit me, as it would have elimated the Schelks and Thomas V. But still would leave Vino, Cuddles, Wiggins, Contador, the four Radioshack Guys, and several others fairly close. Dont see how that would make it less nervous as Thomas V was never near the front anyway before the crash which gave him the yellow. It would only really affect the Schlecks.

Last year crashes took out at least two GC riders, Cuddles and Lance.

The year before Cuddles was wiped out by the TTT.

How does eliminating the first tier GC riders in the first week make it a better race?


HUgh

 

[Libertine Seguros]

A 40 to 50km ITT at the start would suit me, as it would have elimated the Schelks and Thomas V. But still would leave Vino, Cuddles, Wiggins, Contador, the four Radioshack Guys, and several others fairly close. Dont see how that would make it less nervous as Thomas V was never near the front anyway before the crash which gave him the yellow. It would only really affect the Schlecks.

Last year crashes took out at least two GC riders, Cuddles and Lance.

The year before Cuddles was wiped out by the TTT.

How does eliminating the first tier GC riders in the first week make it a better race?

HUgh

It's not about eliminating the first tier GC riders. It's about eliminating the hangers-on. The likes of Tony Martin, Kevin de Weert, Vladimir Karpets and Nicolas Roche not feeling the need to be at the front and add to the already congested mess of people trying to stay near the front.

So last year crashes took out Cuddles and Lance (on about stage 8 - and that stage was a mountain stage anyway so if they were off form they could have fallen out of contention anyway).

This year crashes took out Klöden, Leipheimer, Brajkovic, Horner, Wiggins, Vinokourov, Van den Broeck, and on top of that have hampered Contador, Sánchez, Gesink, Kreuziger, and removed peripheral names like Intxausti and Gadret.

We've seen the GC field completely and utterly decimated before we've got to either a mountain OR a time trial, by keeping the phase where everybody's riding to protect their aims going until nearly 2 weeks have elapsed.

 

[seaby71]

Does anyone know if laurels re dam is starting tonight?

 

[seaby71]

Sorry does anyone know if laurens ten dam is starting or not?