TDF Stage 15 - Monday, July 19 2010, Pamiers - Bagnères-de-Luchon, 187 km

[hoolaparara]

The more I look at yesterday the more I become sure nothing will happen until late on the second Tourmalet ascent, the only interest to then will be samu v menchov and I think they're close enough that it will all be together again until... well you know.

The only minor chance is today after menchov/samu try a few feints at getting away which are covered by all 8-10 will go over port de bales together and then samu will try to descend away but Cancellera will channel his spirit and tell samu to stop. "It too dangerous."

 

[python]

to me the biggest puzzle today is what will be the astana's game ?

yesterday, they tried the hammer, it did not work..i think they need to recruit either rabo or euskaltel-euskadi help to try to dislodge andy in exchange for a stage victory. i see samu as their more natural ally.

contodor only needs 15 second on the top of the final climb crested with samu to have andy lose 30-60 second by the finish if isolated.

 

[I Watch Cycling In July]

AS to attack, AC to follow and counterattack then get dropped. AS to reach summit about 1min ahead of Bert and Menchov, after Menchov diesels his way up to Bert and they work together. Duo gains only 20s on Schleck on descent, and is almost caught by Samu and Kreuziger (who is having a better day)....

 

[auscyclefan94]

Even if AS gets away on the climb he may find it hard to stay away as the Schlecks are not known for there downhill abilities.

Descent is suppose to be very dangerous.

 

[Sophistic]

Sanchez needs to attack, Rodriguez needs to attack, Gesink might attack if he gets the green light...so there should be some action regardless of what Schleck and Contador are doing.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think we will really see who are the good desenders and who are the bad descenders today. Suppose to be very treachorours descent and time could be made up very easily on the descent. Sanchez ftw.

 

[Matt1234]

How do you think Robert Gesink and Christophe Le Mevel look and how is their chance today? Both didn't show much on 14th, but i am more in to Mevel today on 15th.

Could Chris Horner and John Gadret be a joker today?

One of the Sanchez, for the win!

 

[craig1985]

I think we will really see who are the good desenders and who are the bad descenders today. Suppose to be very treachorours descent and time could be made up very easily on the descent. Sanchez ftw.

It's really not that bad. The first few km are a bit tricky, but after that, it's nothing. I would say descending off the Mortirolo and the Trivigno would be more treacherous then the Bales.

 

[hoolaparara]

I gotta say looking at the profiles posted earlier, the descent does not look particularly steep and I would have thought no matter how technical it would be unlikely to break up after all. So Cancellara need not channel his spirit 20 minutes up the road to keep Andy from being dropped.

So its all up to breaking on the climb.. so I tip a break away win and top 10 at least finishing together 2 minutes behind.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The descent is not treacherous or dangerous or technical.
So don't expect Sanchez to really ride away and gain minutes. If he's lucky he wins 10/20 seconds

 

[craig1985]

There will be a big group for the false flat and the domestiques be on the front and riding hard until the road kicks up. The action will start at the steeper part of the course.

 

[theyoungest]

Come on Bobby G, go for the stage win! We've only seen one sort of semi-attack from you in this Tour, and this climb is long enough for you to find your rhythm and try something. And ride that pesky VDB2 off your wheel, preferably to take over 5th in GC

 

[The Hitch]

I have managed to get all top 6 on GC, except Gesink on my fantasy team..

Why not just say top 5

 

[Barrus]

to me the biggest puzzle today is what will be the astana's game ?

yesterday, they tried the hammer, it did not work..i think they need to recruit either rabo or euskaltel-euskadi help to try to dislodge andy in exchange for a stage victory. i see samu as their more natural ally.

contodor only needs 15 second on the top of the final climb crested with samu to have andy lose 30-60 second by the finish if isolated.

Not only a stage win, but at least Menchov, or Rabobank is looking whether they can dislodge Andy from the second spot, perhaps by taking some time now and try to overtake him during the time trial. I think Menchov/Rabo would be really helpfull, would Contador ask such a thing and especially if they would get a stage win in return as well

 

[Roland Rat]

Sanchez to win.

Hopefully Contador will also carry on gambling to allow Menchov and Sanchez within 30 seconds of him and 1 minute of Schlecklet. I'd laugh so hard if they then kicked AS off the podium entirely in the TT.

 

[Ferminal]

Thor and Ale Jet taking 2 and 1 pts respectively over the 4th category time, wonder if they were confused

(I think they were both in a break group which has been taken back already).

 

[The Barb]

This Tour has had more speed in the first hour each day than I remember in previous years.

 

[Roland Rat]

Apparently Schlecklet was caught behind a split but Saxo have pulled it back together. Petacchi and Thor tried to get into a break but were pulled back.

Edit: 1st sprint in about 13km.

 

[JesusManzano]

Guess Lampre/HTC is keeping the pace high to take some points on thor at the sprint. Also guessing that thor wont get any help from his team in this sprint, and that Sastre has 7 helpers around him to secure a top 15 in the GC...

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Sanchez to win.

Hopefully Contador will also carry on gambling to allow Menchov and Sanchez within 30 seconds of him and 1 minute of Schlecklet. I'd laugh so hard if they then kicked AS off the podium entirely in the TT.

That's exactly what I think AC was doing when they slowed on the climb yesterday - 'either do some work or risk coming in fourth'.

That would be hilarious, esp if he comes in 4th by less than 13 seconds.

 

[sportzchick]

Thor and Ale Jet taking 2 and 1 pts respectively over the 4th category time, wonder if they were confused

(I think they were both in a break group which has been taken back already).

Pardon my ignrance but who is Ale Jet?

 

[alberto.legstrong]

who is doing the work on the front?

 

[palmerq]

Pardon my ignrance but who is Ale Jet?

old man petacchi :S

 

[Publicus]

Pardon my ignrance but who is Ale Jet?

Alessandro Petacchi. A sprinter for Lampre and the current leader of the points classification.


@alberto.legstrong: I believe Lampre is driving the peloton to prevent Thor from taking a flyer for the first intermediate sprint points.

 

[sportzchick]

Im not sure if that was saracsam so I will give you the benifit of the doubt

I know who petacchi is............but what I didnt know is why Ale Jet?