TDF Stage 15 - Monday, July 19 2010, Pamiers - Bagnères-de-Luchon, 187 km

[The Hitch]

TDF Stage 15 - Monday, July 19 2010, Pamiers - Bagnères-de-Luchon, 187 km

Since we are now in the Pyranees, and todays stage was a slight let down, lets move on to the next.

2 catergory 2 climbs followed by the TDF tradition of having the big climb 20k from the finish.

The climb is the Hors Catergory monster, Port de Bales. Maybe, just maybe, the Contador and Schleck brief lapse is a sign of things to come. Dont count on it though.

Expect fatigue to play a big part and favourites to be distanced. Seems the list has narrowed to Rodriguez, Gesink, Menchov and Sanchez who can stay with Schleck and Contador on the big climbs. My guess is that that group to cross the summit together. No secret who is the best on the descent from those.

The men will be seperated from the boys.

Come on Samu.

 

[roundabout]

Bales ascent

Bales descent

 

[Delicato]

After today's disgrace of a stage, I expect some fireworks. Technical descent, hard mountain, cumulative fatigue...Though in the end I think current top-4 in GC should come to the finish together. Or maybe, just maybe, with negligible gaps.

 

[The Hitch]

After today's disgrace of a stage, I expect some fireworks. Technical descent, hard mountain, cumulative fatigue...Though in the end I think current top-4 in GC should come to the finish together. Or maybe, just maybe, with negligible gaps.

Namely the king descender.

He made up 40 seconds on the descent of the madeline. This time he does not need to save for a 10k straight.

If hes good enough he will bait contador and Schlecklet into crashes, propeling himself into the maillot jaune (he doesnt need to bait menchov into crashing)

 

[Teddy Boom]

Hushovd to go in the early break for sprint points. The Contador Schleck stalemate will continue, and Hushovd will score sprint points at the final too!!
(okay, probably not, but would be fun )

 

[ericthesportsman6]

A break takes the stage, while S. Sanchez gains a minute on the descent.

 

[Moondance]

Only question is now whether the gaps created on the ascent are greater than those created by the descent....

A break will probably take this, but Samuel Sanchez should be able to trump the other GC men.

 

[Delicato]

Namely the king descender.

He made up 40 seconds on the descent of the madeline. This time he does not need to save for a 10k straight.

If hes good enough he will bait contador and Schlecklet into crashes, propeling himself into the maillot jaune (he doesnt need to bait menchov into crashing)

Made up on descent and nearly cracked on the final flat part. Fortunately, tomorrow it is only downhill to the finish.

 

[The Hitch]

Perhaps i should not get to excited about Sanchez on the descent.

I was so hoping arroyo would take back 1 and a half minutes on the gavia descent but given a choice between pleasing me and his own life, he chose his own life

 

[Lyds97]

Perhaps i should not get to excited about Sanchez on the descent.

I was so hoping arroyo would take back 1 and a half minutes on the gavia descent but given a choice between pleasing me and his own life, he chose his own life

Such a spoilsport, that Arroyo. Samu, on the other hand, will hopefully delight us with his usual heart-in-mouth descending. Would love for him to take this one and the route certainly suits him.

Will any of the GC guys lose time tomorrow? Menchov doesn't love a technical descent and the likes of Andy need to not take too many risks.

 

[Cobblestones]

Bertie and Schlecklet will come to a standstill. Samu pedals away, descents like a stone and ends up in yellow

At least one can hope.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Lance and Cavendish will exchange track stands as they battle for the winner of the autobus.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

who is the better descender? bertie? or andy?

 

[theyoungest]

who is the better descender? bertie? or andy?

Contador, definitely.

 

[killswitch]

who is the better descender? bertie? or andy?

Bertie.

 

[musclesza]

Expect fatigue to play a big part and favourites to be distanced. Seems the list has narrowed to Rodriguez, Gesink, Menchov and Sanchez who can stay with Schleck and Contador on the big climbs. My guess is that that group to cross the summit together. No secret who is the best on the descent from those.

The men will be seperated from the boys.

Come on Samu.

Any Predictions on the top 3 - another surprise winner on the stage??

 

[Dedelou]

a surprise winner

With pretty much all the contenders watching each others. And the battle for 10th very tight.. I give Vino for the stage finish if the break has been caught by the bunch before the summit.. This is not based on anything but my fantasies

 

[benpounder]

My prediction: Armstrong summits Aspet first, then steps off of his bike. Brajkovic, his shepard for the past two weeks, goes on and gets the stage win.

Another prediction: This forum will continue to have a visceral, and blinding, hatred of Armstrong.

Odds on my predictions?
1:200 on the first,
100:1 on the later.

 

[Magnus]

Contador, definitely.

Is that based on evidence or that Frank crashes some times?

 

[theyoungest]

Is that based on evidence or that Frank crashes some times?

Based on what you can see in front of your eyes. The latest evidence being the Madeleine descent, where Andy looked far from amazing. Don't know what this has to do with Fränk, though.

 

[Ryaguas]

After this stage I don't know what to think... Andy seems to be playing mind games and AC too...

well besides that... This stage looks nice for a breakaway but we have to check how tired start to be the peloton... I'm not going with a breakaway... that will die in the HC Le Port de Bales...

Winners: Samu Sanchez or LLSanchez
Darkhorses: AC (If he managed to break Andy's legs in the last climb), Vino or The Silent Assasin

I want to see what is going to happen cuz the fatigue is starting to take her toll in this race... also we will see who is recovering good and who is recovering GREAT!

 

[The Hitch]

Lance and Cavendish will exchange track stands as they battle for the winner of the autobus.

lol Brilliant

You are clearly really enjoying these lance fail days. Keep coming with those witty comments.

 

[The Hitch]

Any Predictions on the top 3 - another surprise winner on the stage??

good to see my opinion is worth something

thats very generous of you.
And here i thought i was just writing for myself.


A wild prediction, but i really liked what Caisse did on the madeline stage, putting 3 in the break to work for lulu. It didnt quite work out as it could have but it was still a brave move for a team without a gc hope.
If they wanted to do it again, today would be a good day to try, as luis leon is a brilliant descender, and if the break can deliver him to the summit, he can take it from there.

And i do expect the break to stay away.

 

[hrotha]

I soooo hope Cunego will win either this one or stage 16. He deserves it.

 

[The Hitch]

the following quote was posted every day during the giro by various people

I soooo hope Cunego will win either this one or stage 16. He deserves it.

It didnt quite come to pass.