TDF Stage 16 - Tuesday, July 20 2010, Bagnères-de-Luchon - Pau, 196 km

[The Hitch]

this is a traditionnal finish to Pau. The last 70 kilometers only matter for the GC contenders if they failed to compete during the 4 monster climbs. Not sure i am making my point clear , so let me try again. there is enough though climbing in that stage to beat your oponent at whatever range you are fighting.. So Contador , Shleck , Menchow, Sanchez all have a chance to have enough time on their opponent by the last summint to maintain time all the way to Pau.. In some way this stage is the true combination of mountain climbing and ITT in one stage.

Yes but if you get over the last climb in a group of say 2 or 3, you are at a massively greater advantage then someone who gets over the climb on their own. So for once, it is better for your opponents to let you go if you go on the attack, as then you will kill yourself on a 70km flat, while your opponents team tt it and probably get to the finish before you with less energy spent.

In fact anyone who gets over the last climb on their own, is better off waiting
for the group behind.

 

[michaeld]

I will be surprised if this ends up being a boring stage.

Boring stages are raced by boring racers. Time is time. Good for this mixing it up.

 

[Big GMaC]

Are we going to miss the climbs on the TV coverage?

 

[El Pistolero]

Are we going to miss the climbs on the TV coverage?

Here in Belgium they start the TV coverage really early in the race today(or tomorrow for some people?)

 

[Scirea]

Yea someone who hasn't even bothered for the points the entire race could come out of nowhere and be a threat. Should be a large breakaway, Cunego, Pineau, Charteau, and Moreau will probably all be in there.

Moreau can't be in a break, RadioShack won't let him. He would already wear the polka dot jersey if not that.

 

[Scirea]

If Moreau is going into a break, might Caisse try another one of their, Arroyo LL sanchez all or nothing breaks, just for kicks.
Surely a few teams, - sky, bmc, caisse, have nothing to lose by trying it.

Put flecha and thomas up the road, then wiggins goes on a break like hi tried in vain in the giro, and they help him out.

Would get them up in the gc.

RadioShack wouldn't even allow Moreau into a break, not to mention more Caisse riders. Only way if Lance and Brajkovic are in the break too. (Klöden and Horner can't get in there imo, too close in GC.)

 

[Scirea]

Are we going to miss the climbs on the TV coverage?

I guess not. Eurosport will start the coverage at 11:30cet, i think the stage will start at 11:40cet

 

[Scirea]

If this one ends up as a boring stage, a lot of riders should just quit.

Andy Schleck - fighting for the win and he is clearly worse than Bert in ITT

Samuel Sanchez - fighting for the podium and he is clearly worse than Menchov in ITT

Robert Gesink - fighting for top6 and he is clearly worse than Leipheimer in ITT. He should only attack though if Menchov feels okay and wouldn't hurt him.

Roman Kreuziger, Luis-Leon Sanchez - both fighting for the top10

Cadel Evans, Bradley Wiggins, Michael Rogers, Lance Armstrong - guys who are well back in the GC, have nothing to lose and didn't achieve much this year (Evans wore the yellow and that's it for these 4)


And the speaches from Andy. First the "i will attack" yesterday. He kinda did but when? 2 kilometers from the mountain top with 20km descent after? Fail. And then the "i will give everything" one today. If Andy won't go all out on the Tourmalet at the latest i will be very disappointed. He knows that he won't beat Contador by 2-3 minutes on Thursday, right? And if he slowplays it even Menchov can catch him. It would be dumb. On the other hand, if he goes all out tomorrow he will gain a lot of new supporters.

 

[Scirea]

Yes but if you get over the last climb in a group of say 2 or 3, you are at a massively greater advantage then someone who gets over the climb on their own. So for once, it is better for your opponents to let you go if you go on the attack, as then you will kill yourself on a 70km flat, while your opponents team tt it and probably get to the finish before you with less energy spent.

In fact anyone who gets over the last climb on their own, is better off waiting
for the group behind.

But it doesn't mean you shouldn't attack.

Let's say this: (it won't happen but just for the sack of the theory)

Andy is first over the top
Contador is second 2 minutes back
Sanchez and Menchov are next 4 minutes back

Is that really bad for Schleck? I mean he isn't that bad on descent. Today in 20km descent he lost something like 20 seconds. And Contador, Sanchez and Menchov were going together.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I hope Charteau can seal the deal for the KOM and he seems to be going well enough - the only thing that could throw a spanner in the works for him would be if a P'ed off Andy Schleck goes for a suicide attack on one of the early climbs

Kiriyenka or Valls would be a fitting stage winner

 

[Scirea]

I'm a Contador fan but if i were Andy, i would go all out tomorrow and let's see what the others got. What could he lose? Maybe slipping down from 2nd to 3rd if it goes really bad. So what? He will have a garage full of podium finishes when he is done. He should go for the yellow.

 

[hfer07]

This stage could've been a special one IF only was planned to finish at 164 km. no matter how many hors cat climbs you put in the stage, if you're going to ruin it with a 61+ Km of false descend. The only way Andy can ever make a difference in this stage is If somehow he manages to Isolate Bertie prior to the Tourmalet -drop him & have at least two guys already on front in a breakaway, so they can carry him faster to the finish line.

 

[Sasquatch]

RadioShack have over a four minute lead - not to mention their riders are the better time trialists.

If Moreau goes in the break, they will make sure Brajkovic or Popovych join him.

 

[BroDeal]

Although the chance of Schleck or Contador losing time seems small, there is a chance that the someone in the top ten could drop time if pressure is applied.

 

[The Barb]

RadioShack have over a four minute lead - not to mention their riders are the better time trialists.

If Moreau goes in the break, they will make sure Brajkovic or Popovych join him.

... or Armstrong ...

 

[Sasquatch]

Although the chance of Schleck or Contador losing time seems small, there is a chance that the someone in the top ten could drop time if pressure is applied.

Yeah - the most likely would be Rodriguez/Gesink or Leipheimer and the two behind them. Rodriguez suffered with the heat yesterday and was dropped near the top of the climb. Gesink didn't look that great either nor did Leipheimer.

 

[BroDeal]

Yeah - the most likely would be Rodriguez/Gesink or Leipheimer and the two behind them. Rodriguez suffered with the heat yesterday and was dropped near the top of the climb. Gesink didn't look that great either nor did Leipheimer.

I would like to see the team of a rider in 3rd to 10th place crank the pace up and try to crack one of the others in the top ten. As you say, some top ten riders look like they are suffering more than others.

 

[2wheels]

With so many teams and riders still having podium hopes, I don't see how tomorrow can fail to be a very active day. We know that about a hundred guys are going to at least try to get up the road; does anyone think that Astana alone can stop them? Bold prediction time: one of the hundred guys will be Voigt.

 

[pedaling squares]

I'm hoping for fireworks. Schleck isn't getting the time he needs on Contador with an attack on one mountain. He needs to go all in as he said. Better to burn out than to fade away. Schleck knows what second place feels like and I don't think he wants to feel it again. His teammates might not be allowed to get in a break, so maybe they should burn themselves and the Astana domos early and isolate the leaders.

Written by a fan and not a DS.

 

[Beasty Boy]

I'm hoping for fireworks. Schleck isn't getting the time he needs on Contador with an attack on one mountain. He needs to go all in as he said. Better to burn out than to fade away. Schleck knows what second place feels like and I don't think he wants to feel it again. His teammates might not be allowed to get in a break, so maybe they should burn themselves and the Astana domos early and isolate the leaders.

Written by a fan and not a DS.

He's not going to get three minutes on AC in one attack. I suspect the pressure now will lead to him trying something spectacular that will end up looking pathetic as it crumbles. AC will counter and pass him legit this time, and then everyone will claim this proves AC is the rightful winner.

You can see why AC's move today was so important.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

He's not going to get three minutes on AC in one attack. I suspect the pressure now will lead to him trying something spectacular that will end up looking pathetic as it crumbles. AC will counter and pass him legit this time, and then everyone will claim this proves AC is the rightful winner.

You can see why AC's move today was so important.

Schleck had to attack regardless of today's outcome. He was only 31 seconds ahead of Contador. He lost more time than that to Alberto in the prologue.

 

[saganftw]

this stage is only stage where first half of the race is more exciting than finish...breakway ftw aand chavanel for hattrick

 

[Beasty Boy]

Schleck had to attack regardless of today's outcome. He was only 31 seconds ahead of Contador. He lost more time than that to Alberto in the prologue.

Yes but he might have made some small time up yesterday - very possible - and he would not be under pressure for a huge attack in the coming days. Just a little bit more time here and there. That still may have been over turned in the ITT but it would have been close.

But that's all changed now.

Now AS is under real pressure to make a huge attack. That will make him really nervous. At the same time the pressure is off AC, which he will find suddenly helps his legs no end. To have the knowledge of being able to attack without fear of failure, plus knowing just a little attack will finish off Schleck's hopes if it succeeds, will make the idea of attacking seem a lot easier to him.

It's really turned everything upside down. Sad.

 

[kukiniloa]

Why is this sport a mystery to people?

There is just all of this pontificating on how tomorrow's stage doesn't have a mountaintop finish!! It has gone on long enough! Why is this sport such a mystery to people??! It's not astrophysics, after all...

I'd like to point out that this year's tour has no TTT, and this is related to why this stage has a fair bit of flatness before the finish. It behooves riders to have support when they make that final climb and on the run in...so the intention, it seems, is to make tomorrows stage a stage that tests team climbing strengths.

So make your calculations based on this picture. It's clear that if Saxo Bank had Frank, things would be even more interesting.

I gazed into my crystal ball this evening, and I can (spoiler alert) state that tomorrow Bertie will concede time to A Schleck.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I would like to see the team of a rider in 3rd to 10th place crank the pace up and try to crack one of the others in the top ten. As you say, some top ten riders look like they are suffering more than others.

Yep. I'd love to see Gesink or Basso come out swinging. Levi will do absolutely nothing but desperately fight to find a wheel to suck while working to defend his 8th place or whatever. I wish I were wrong and suddenly Levi finds some cajones.