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TDF Stage 19 - Saturday, July 24 2010, Bordeaux - Pauillac, 51 km ITT

And so it has come to this.

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For the second year in a row, we have to look to the individual time trial for any kind of gc shakeup. The main questions to be answered regard top 10 place, the 3rd place, and most importantly of all, can Contador crash.

Cancellara for the win.
 
Though its not neccesarily in his hands. As roundabout pointed out, the wind could change. Cancellara has been poor outside stages 3 and 0, and will therefore start near the begining. Last year he started nearer to the end, and it still cost him as ac had more favourable conditions. This year it could be in his favour, or against him, not in his hands.

I think the question, how many seconds will menchov take on sammy, is the most important.

My guess is 15.
 
Aug 5, 2009
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I posted this in betting thread but wondering what people here thought also.

I was looking at a few head to heads tomorrow and greatly appreciate thoughts of others on these. Have loved this tour but my cycling knowledge is limited compared to some on here anyway. How much can you read into performances in prologue. Are cyclists who perform well in prologue usually good in timetrial also? Anyway Here are selections I am thinking of going for and rationale behind my thinking

Hicapie versus Monfort. Monfort at evens. They are both beside each other on gc (60th and 61st respectively). Monfort was 1;20 quicker than Hincapie last year on the timetrial. In prologue this year Monfort was around 13 seconds quicker

Bert Grabsch versus Gerraint Thomas. Thomas at evens. Thomas came 5th in prologue versus Grabsch's 76th placing. I think Thomas has had a good tour and had a very good start to the tour. Perhaps he peaked too early in the race but I think he will want to go out on a high

Bradley Wiggins versus Janez Brajkovic. Brajkovic at 8/5. Both have had woeful tours. Bit of value in Brajkovic at 8/5 as even though Wiggins has targeted this his form is too poor. Brajkovic was 21 seconds in prologue.
 
larryduff said:
I posted this in betting thread but wondering what people here thought also.

I was looking at a few head to heads tomorrow and greatly appreciate thoughts of others on these. Have loved this tour but my cycling knowledge is limited compared to some on here anyway. How much can you read into performances in prologue. Are cyclists who perform well in prologue usually good in timetrial also? Anyway Here are selections I am thinking of going for and rationale behind my thinking

Hicapie versus Monfort. Monfort at evens. They are both beside each other on gc (60th and 61st respectively). Monfort was 1;20 quicker than Hincapie last year on the timetrial. In prologue this year Monfort was around 13 seconds quicker

Bert Grabsch versus Gerraint Thomas. Thomas at evens. Thomas came 5th in prologue versus Grabsch's 76th placing. I think Thomas has had a good tour and had a very good start to the tour. Perhaps he peaked too early in the race but I think he will want to go out on a high

Bradley Wiggins versus Janez Brajkovic. Brajkovic at 8/5. Both have had woeful tours. Bit of value in Brajkovic at 8/5 as even though Wiggins has targeted this his form is too poor. Brajkovic was 21 seconds in prologue.

You cant neccesarily read into the prologue though it depends how long it is and what the course is like. In romandie the prologue had sagan 2nd and cav only 5 secs behind. Needless to say in the proper time trial 2 days later, neither was anywhere near the top.

This prologue wasnt 3k but it was a short flat tt nonetheless.
Farrar did well, and if he was still here tomorow, his performance would be nowhere near that level.

However if you know how good someone is at prologues and tts then their prologue performance should be a good indication. Wiggins won the giro prologue, and has shown in last years tt and last years worlds, that he is a very good long distance tter as well. Therefore i would read into his prologue performance, which suggests he wont do too well tomorow.
 
Aug 5, 2009
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The Hitch said:
You cant neccesarily read into the prologue though it depends how long it is and what the course is like. In romandie the prologue had sagan 2nd and cav only 5 secs behind. Needless to say in the proper time trial 2 days later, neither was anywhere near the top.

This prologue wasnt 3k but it was a short flat tt nonetheless.
Farrar did well, and if he was still here tomorow, his performance would be nowhere near that level.

However if you know how good someone is at prologues and tts then their prologue performance should be a good indication. Wiggins won the giro prologue, and has shown in last years tt and last years worlds, that he is a very good long distance tter as well. Therefore i would read into his prologue performance, which suggests he wont do too well tomorow.


Excellent.Thanks for that the hitch.Much appreciated
 
In trying to formulate my 9 man fantasy team for tomorrow I am interested in peoples thoughts on Millar, Wiggins, Martin, Grabsch, Sanchez, Fugslang's and EBH's chances of getting into the top 15. I am concerned about the condition of Millar and Martin as they finshed near last on each stage in the Pyrenees. Anyone know if they are injured or savings themselves for tommorow?

Thanks.
 
Jul 14, 2009
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larryduff said:
I posted this in betting thread but wondering what people here thought also.

I was looking at a few head to heads tomorrow and greatly appreciate thoughts of others on these. Have loved this tour but my cycling knowledge is limited compared to some on here anyway. How much can you read into performances in prologue. Are cyclists who perform well in prologue usually good in timetrial also? Anyway Here are selections I am thinking of going for and rationale behind my thinking

Hicapie versus Monfort. Monfort at evens. They are both beside each other on gc (60th and 61st respectively). Monfort was 1;20 quicker than Hincapie last year on the timetrial. In prologue this year Monfort was around 13 seconds quicker

Bert Grabsch versus Gerraint Thomas. Thomas at evens. Thomas came 5th in prologue versus Grabsch's 76th placing. I think Thomas has had a good tour and had a very good start to the tour. Perhaps he peaked too early in the race but I think he will want to go out on a high

Bradley Wiggins versus Janez Brajkovic. Brajkovic at 8/5. Both have had woeful tours. Bit of value in Brajkovic at 8/5 as even though Wiggins has targeted this his form is too poor. Brajkovic was 21 seconds in prologue.

Well my opinion would be... Grabsch over Thomas, Wiggins over Brajkovic, Monfort over Hincapie. It would take an absolute miracle for Thomas to beat Grabsch. This is Grabsch's ideal stage, and he's a former TT world champion. He can produce tons of power on a day as flat as this one. I think Wiggins is in need of redemption, while Brajkovic's Dauphine ride tired him out. Monfort and Hincapie is difficult, but Hincapie is not as fast as he once was in the discipline. Generally, a prologue and a long flat TT of this sort produce very different results, stronger riders with lesser endurance, for example Hushovd, perform well in Prologues, but not in longer TT's. Prologues are more about raw power, while longer TT's are about spacing out your effort and technique. For this reason, smaller riders with better endurance can produce good results. (LL Sanchez, S. Sanchez, Alberto Contador) And then there are the specialists, who perform well in Both. (David Millar, Fabian Cancellera, Tony Martin)
 
Mar 12, 2010
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rules change when it comes to ITT on penultimate day of TdF, it is more about fatigue and current form and it favours GC contenders a little... therefore I think it will be the best ITT of Andy´s life but unless something strange happens Alberto sholud have clear advantage (I predict the difference 60-90 seconds)
AC has decent chance of winning the whole thing, but of course Cancellara, Martin and company will be desperate to take it after long weeks without serious racing
 
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Prologues don't even have much to do with regular time trials.

It's a different kind of effort.

They have a bit to do with regular time trials, considering cancellara came 1st, martin 2nd, contador 6th.

The effort sustained during a prologue is similar to the one in long tts. in fact, the 50k/h cancellara and 1 or 2 others managed in the mendrisio time trial (which had a hill in it to be done 3 times) is faster than the average speed i see in most prologues (though corners have to be taken into account)

also the aerodynamics aspect is measured as well in prologues
 
Mar 24, 2010
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I'm a Jani Brajkovic fanboy, so go Jani !
Realistically though, I'd say one the riders that have already been mentioned will probably win: Cancellara, Tony Martin, or Contador. And my wild card would be Edvald Boassen Hagen.
 
The Hitch said:
They have a bit to do with regular time trials, considering cancellara came 1st, martin 2nd, contador 6th.

The effort sustained during a prologue is similar to the one in long tts. in fact, the 50k/h cancellara and 1 or 2 others managed in the mendrisio time trial (which had a hill in it to be done 3 times) is faster than the average speed i see in most prologues (though corners have to be taken into account)

also the aerodynamics aspect is measured as well in prologues
That has to do with corners in prologues... (often in inner cities)
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Old&slow said:
In trying to formulate my 9 man fantasy team for tomorrow I am interested in peoples thoughts on Millar, Wiggins, Martin, Grabsch, Sanchez, Fugslang's and EBH's chances of getting into the top 15. I am concerned about the condition of Millar and Martin as they finshed near last on each stage in the Pyrenees. Anyone know if they are injured or savings themselves for tommorow?

Thanks.

Millar is injured. Martin was saving himself for this ITT.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Do you really think Martin has anything left in his tank? He seemed a bit overtrained, also the cause he did poorly this Tour.

But he could've been saving himself in the 3rd week, I don't know. Just seems unlikely.

He suffered in the first mountain stage. After that Columbia set him two goals: help Cav on flat stages and win the long ITT. He is well rested compared to others. Cancellara for example worked a lot when Andy was in yellow. Or on the Tourmalet stage when Andy wanted a high tempo before his attack.
 

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