TDU race thread

[theyoungest]

Well yeah, Matthew Goss obviously. But apart from him?

I believe that Michael Matthews, if given the confidence of his team, can challenge him.

 

[Kvinto]

Hermans is out

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bakelants-replaces-hermans-at-tour-down-under

 

[will10]

Since we have an additional Stirling lap and Willunga hill being a mtf it should be interesting how the GC turns out.

Molehill Top Finish?

 

[Kvinto]

Molehill Top Finish?

in fact, i thought about using a 'htp' as a 'hill top finish' but finally decided that a 'mtf' sounds more recognizable, no matter that Willunga is not quite a mountain

 

[El Pistolero]

The year(s) before Greipel peaked too early. He wants to be good in the Tour, not in the Tour Down Under.

Last year he had a bad lead-out for much of the season because the team was focused on Gilbert instead of Greipel. Now Greipel will have a much better lead-out because Gilbert's gone. I'd be surprised if he didn't have more than 15 victories this year. I hope they also put him in the Vuelta this time, one GT is not enough for a sprinter.

This year they also strengthened their sprinter squad with guys like Henderson and Lars Yting Bak.

I already look forward to the Tour of Belgium with Greipel and Petacchi in the sprinter stages

 

[Captain_Cavman]

I believe that Michael Matthews, if given the confidence of his team, can challenge him.

He had a great start to the year didn't he, and then fell away. I wonder if he'll structure it differently this time. Not convinced he's the one.

 

[will10]

Last year he had a bad lead-out for much of the season because the team was focused on Gilbert instead of Greipel. Now Greipel will have a much better lead-out because Gilbert's gone. I'd be surprised if he didn't have more than 15 victories this year. I hope they also put him in the Vuelta this time, one GT is not enough for a sprinter.

Greipel is been the best sprinter in the world at losing a wheel. Even at HTC winning all the small races, he could've won a lot more. The guy has the power, but I can't tell you how many times he gets 3rd or 4th after starting the sprint in 10th-12th cos his positioning is so poor.

 

[El Pistolero]

Greipel is been the best sprinter in the world at losing a wheel. Even at HTC winning all the small races, he could've won a lot more. The guy has the power, but I can't tell you how many times he gets 3rd or 4th after starting the sprint in 10th-12th cos his positioning is so poor.

Doesn't matter, he benefits a lot from a good lead-out, so it will increase his wins this year compared to last year.

 

[Ferminal]

1. it's January, they won't be racing that hard.
2. Greipel's still the quickest of the sprinters there
3. He's dominated an edition of this race recently.
4. he showed at MSR he is quite capable of powering up short hills.
5. No-one's going to be in great shape so the guy who peaks and troughs least through the season has an advantage. And that guy is Greipel (although I have no idea why I think that).
6. Lotto have brought a team this year that could deliver Greipel to the head of affairs unlike last year.
7. It's a sh**ty small race; Greipel's good at those.
8. It's still only January, who knows what's going to happen, it's just a punt. Greipel may lead out for Henderson.

All good points, but winning 5 stages is still absurd Even in 2010 he only won 3 stages against a weaker field. Any sprinter who wants to win will have make sure a puncheur doesn't take Stirling and not be more than 20s back on Wilunga.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

All good points, but winning 5 stages is still absurd Even in 2010 he only won 3 stages against a weaker field. Any sprinter who wants to win will have make sure a puncheur doesn't take Stirling and not be more than 20s back on Wilunga.

3 wins, a second and a third gets him up to 40 bonus seconds.

 

[theyoungest]

He had a great start to the year didn't he, and then fell away. I wonder if he'll structure it differently this time. Not convinced he's the one.

He already beat Goss in two or three stages, plus some intermediate sprints last year. So if Goss is a challenger, so is Matthews.

The only problem is Renshaw being Matthews' teammate.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I doubt it, Willunga is what 3km or so at over 7%? Can Greipel finish within 20 seconds of the winner there?

Isn't Willunga where Contador won in 2005? Doubt Greipel would finish within 20 seconds if it's the same mountain.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

He already beat Goss in two or three stages, plus some intermediate sprints last year. So if Goss is a challenger, so is Matthews.

The only problem is Renshaw being Matthews' teammate.

He got most of his best results in Jan and Feb last year - Why would you assume the same will be true this year?

 

[theyoungest]

Isn't Willunga where Contador won in 2005? Doubt Greipel would finish within 20 seconds if it's the same mountain.

Willunga is in the race every year. Greipel won the race twice. It's not that hard a hill.

He got most of his best results in Jan and Feb last year - Why would you assume the same will be true this year?

Yeah, but I assume he'll already be quite good for this race... all Aussies are, basically.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Willunga is in the race every year. Greipel won the race twice. It's not that hard a hill.


Yeah, but I assume he'll already be quite good for this race... all Aussies are, basically.

yeah but this year they are finishing on it

 

[theyoungest]

yeah but this year they are finishing on it

Last year Hermans, Porte, and Bobridge went all out and they got about a 20 second gap on guys like Goss and Matthews.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

yeah, but greipel...

 

[Kvinto]

20 seconds hmm, since i couldn't find the profile of Willunga Hill, i've just worked it out on the Mapmyride - 3.1km, 7.5%. Of course it is not much of an obstacle for sprinters if there is more than 20km to go after its second ascent (as it used to be in recent years) but with all due respect to Matthew Goss if it were not in January, he would lose about 0:40...1:00 on the top of this hill. It's hard to predict how it'll turn out this time, but since i don't count Goss and especially Matthews in the rank of 'pure sprinters', pure sprinters should lose all their GC chances (well outside top-10) after stage 5, while for Goss it should become a stumbling block in his top-5 chances.

 

[LabMonkey]

I have just been reading through the start list (see post 204) and have been trying to work out who the likely protected sprinters will be for each team - people like Goss, Pettachi and Griepel are obvious - but what about the other teams? I guess the same question could be asked about the GC riders also?

 

[Cobblestoned]

Hermans with hip-pain. Can't even train.

Replaced by Jan Bakelants.

http://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/16579/hermans-mist-tour-down-under-door-heupblessure.html

 

[theyoungest]

Hermans with hip-pain. Can't even train.

Replaced by Jan Bakelants.

http://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/16579/hermans-mist-tour-down-under-door-heupblessure.html

New Kids have made it across the border?

 

[Cobblestoned]

New Kids have made it across the border?

Since long ago, jonge.
Was promoted by Comedy Central.
Looking forward to Nitro. Previews are awesome.
Biting the frikandel while shooting has a lot of class.

 

[stefank]

a couple more Tasmanians.....

Cycling Australia @CyclingAus 8m

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[PCutter]

Good to see Channel 9, official broadcaster of the TdU didn't even mention the Australian Champs in their news telecast (at least the Qld version) despite being an otherwise slow sports news day. Way to get behind a sport.

 

[badboyberty]

20 seconds hmm, since i couldn't find the profile of Willunga Hill, i've just worked it out on the Mapmyride - 3.1km, 7.5%. Of course it is not much of an obstacle for sprinters if there is more than 20km to go after its second ascent (as it used to be in recent years) but with all due respect to Matthew Goss if it were not in January, he would lose about 0:40...1:00 on the top of this hill. It's hard to predict how it'll turn out this time, but since i don't count Goss and especially Matthews in the rank of 'pure sprinters', pure sprinters should lose all their GC chances (well outside top-10) after stage 5, while for Goss it should become a stumbling block in his top-5 chances.

The finish line seems to be about another 150m back from the old KoM line so I'm picking a small bunch sprint rather than a solo victory. After Sunday I say it's Gerrans's to lose (unless Valverde produces a magic green bullet).

The steepest part of the hill is at the bottom so we'll see big splits there but after about halfway things will start to come back together as the gradient drops off to what will actually be a flat last 100m. The weather may be a bigger factor than the hill itself, Saturday was a very humid 30degs with 50km+ wind gusts over the shoulder the whole time, last week we had 40degs and dead still, today is a light breeze and low 20's.