TDU race thread

[greenedge]

Yeah i think Gerrans has a great chance to win on Wilunga. The fact is Valverde lacks race sharpness and most Aussies have better form than any other international riders. Those 2 things might set Valverde back.

GE might have to ride to preserve Goss' lead after any sprint stages though ( so that might make Gerrans tired )

I feel sorry for Giacoppo missing out ( but Sulzberger is talented )

 

[42x16ss]

neither of us know what his attitude is to this race. Or indeed anyone else's attitude apart from the local riders. If he really goes for it, what's to stop him?

A surprising amount of riders REALLY enjoy this race. Why do you think that many international riders keep coming back? Guys like Griepel, Voigt, LLS, Rojas aren't exactly nobodies and have raced here almost every season for a good 4-5 years. Something must be done well from a rider's point of view when you stop and consider that most teams only send volunteers to the TDU.

 

[Tuarts]

Group of 20-30 at the finish with maybe 3-5 guys sprinting for the win and ending up with a small gap. "Peloton" may only by about 30s behind I think.

 

[42x16ss]

20 seconds hmm, since i couldn't find the profile of Willunga Hill, i've just worked it out on the Mapmyride - 3.1km, 7.5%. Of course it is not much of an obstacle for sprinters if there is more than 20km to go after its second ascent (as it used to be in recent years) but with all due respect to Matthew Goss if it were not in January, he would lose about 0:40...1:00 on the top of this hill. It's hard to predict how it'll turn out this time, but since i don't count Goss and especially Matthews in the rank of 'pure sprinters', pure sprinters should lose all their GC chances (well outside top-10) after stage 5, while for Goss it should become a stumbling block in his top-5 chances.

FWIW many pro's directly compare Wilunga to the Poggio, just to give you an idea of difficulty.

 

[Tuarts]

Yeah i think Gerrans has a great chance to win on Wilunga. The fact is Valverde lacks race sharpness and most Aussies have better form than any other international riders. Those 2 things might set Valverde back.

GE might have to ride to preserve Goss' lead after any sprint stages though ( so that might make Gerrans tired )

I feel sorry for Giacoppo missing out ( but Sulzberger is talented )

Like I said in the other thread, AJ technically deserved and he's had an outstanding month (best rider of the summer?) But Bernie probably needs it a bit more as his career is at a bit of a crossroads. He has the ability to be at a ProConti team but doesn't seem to have much attention drawn to him.

 

[greenedge]

@ Tuarts you are right.

I still want Sulzberger to get noticed but i also want Anthony to use this summer as a platform for getting himself into a PC team next year.

 

[Tuarts]

He'll likely win a few of the millions of crits in the NRS the season, should get him noticed for sure.

 

[theyoungest]

FWIW many pro's directly compare Wilunga to the Poggio, just to give you an idea of difficulty.

The Poggio has a maximum gradient of like 4 percent, Willunga is a bit steeper I guess.

 

[Kvinto]

The finish line seems to be about another 150m back from the old KoM line so I'm picking a small bunch sprint rather than a solo victory. After Sunday I say it's Gerrans's to lose (unless Valverde produces a magic green bullet).

The steepest part of the hill is at the bottom so we'll see big splits there but after about halfway things will start to come back together as the gradient drops off to what will actually be a flat last 100m. The weather may be a bigger factor than the hill itself, Saturday was a very humid 30degs with 50km+ wind gusts over the shoulder the whole time, last week we had 40degs and dead still, today is a light breeze and low 20's.

FWIW many pro's directly compare Wilunga to the Poggio, just to give you an idea of difficulty.

Of course i'm not that stupid to argue with you guys about places you know definitely better than me, i'm more inclined to think that Mapmyride ie Google Maps lies a bit

From what i drew there it comes out as: 3.1km-7.5% (800m-9.7%, 500m-5.3%, 1200m-8%, 300m-2.5% and 300m-7.3% if the finish line (according to the map on TDU website) is roughly some 50-20m before the turn from Old Willung Hill Rd to Meadows Rd).

My assumption (about chances of the likes of Goss) was based fully on this profile but i admit it may be incorrect.

The only thought i allow myself to make in this case is that imo the comparison to Poggio might be based not on the similarity of profiles of this climbs(hills) but on their influences on races that both Poggio and Willunga feature in, because in this regard Poggio is much closer to the finish line than Willunga used to be in the past editions of TDU.

 

[Kwibus]

20 seconds hmm, since i couldn't find the profile of Willunga Hill, i've just worked it out on the Mapmyride - 3.1km, 7.5%. Of course it is not much of an obstacle for sprinters if there is more than 20km to go after its second ascent (as it used to be in recent years) but with all due respect to Matthew Goss if it were not in January, he would lose about 0:40...1:00 on the top of this hill. It's hard to predict how it'll turn out this time, but since i don't count Goss and especially Matthews in the rank of 'pure sprinters', pure sprinters should lose all their GC chances (well outside top-10) after stage 5, while for Goss it should become a stumbling block in his top-5 chances.

If the hill really is 3.1km @ 7.5% then I'm sure no sprinter will win it. Should be for a real puncheur.
I can't imagine Goss or Matthews winning on top of such a hill if a rider like Valverde is there. Not sure if there are any more puncheurs or if Valverde has the form for this, but if Movistar puts it's team on the front and rides hard on the hill there is no way Goss or Matthews will hang on.

Only if the hill is really 3.1km@7.5%. A profile of the climb would be awesome...

 

[Sasquatch]

Like I said in the other thread, AJ technically deserved and he's had an outstanding month (best rider of the summer?) But Bernie probably needs it a bit more as his career is at a bit of a crossroads. He has the ability to be at a ProConti team but doesn't seem to have much attention drawn to him.

Nah they gave it to Sulzberger because if Giacoppo rode, the majority of UNI-SA would be made up of Genesys/ex Genesys affiliated riders making the AIS look bad. And the team is selected by Cycling Australia.

 

[Anonymous]

Only if the hill is really 3.1km@7.5%. A profile of the climb would be awesome...

Start 125.67 km
Finish 131.07 km
Total Distance 5.40 km
Start Heigh 101 m
End Height 378 m
Gradient 5.1%

http://www.bikemap.net/route/1350009

the second lap, as said a few posts above does not finish at the usual kom point. Its really not that tough.

 

[Anonymous]

To be fair, Willunga is one of those rare climbs that has varying length and gradient depending on who you speak to .

According to Europeans its 3km and 5%

According to Australians its 3km and 8%

And according to Phil Ligget its 5km, 12%, tougher than Alpe d'huez, probably only Mt Baldy is harder, and the crowds at the top are bigger than any you see in the Tour de France.

 

[Kvinto]

Start 125.67 km
Finish 131.07 km
Total Distance 5.40 km
Start Heigh 101 m
End Height 378 m
Gradient 5.1%

http://www.bikemap.net/route/1350009

the second lap, as said a few posts above does not finish at the usual kom point. Its really not that tough.

hmm

what's my mistake then (i guess there is no mistake at all because 'google maps' likes to make a hill longer but flatter)?

http://www.mapmyride.com/routes/view/63070486/

i made only the hill, shortening it to 3.1km, because gradient of the first km of whole the hill is just a false flat. and i took the finish point from the google map at the end of this:

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/down-under-classic-and-stages-1-6.htm

EDIT: In the end - 3.1km-7.4% and when i divided the hill in 5 parts with similar steepnesses and counted gradients manually it appeared: 800m-9.7%, 500m-5.3%, 1200m-8%, 300m-2.5% and 300m-7.3%
EDIT 2: There is a little miscounting (within the limits of error) because these gradients are taken before i edited the route to cover only the climb (it was 3.1km-7.5% before the edit)

 

[Anonymous]

hmm

what's my mistake then (i guess there is no mistake at all because 'google maps' likes to make a hill longer but flatter)?

http://www.mapmyride.com/routes/view/63070486/

i made only the hill, shortening it to 3.1km, because gradient of the first km of whole the hill is just a false flat. and i took the finish point from the google map at the end of this:

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/down-under-classic-and-stages-1-6.htm

EDIT: In the end - 3.1km-7.4% and when i divided the hill in 5 parts with similar steepnesses and counted gradients manually it appeared: 800m-9.7%, 500m-5.3%, 1200m-8%, 300m-2.5% and 300m-7.3%
EDIT 2: There is a little miscounting (within the limits of error) because these gradients are taken before i edited the route to cover only the climb (it was 3.1km-7.5% before the edit)

and yet when you put the entire route in mmr it says its 5% lol
http://www.mapmyride.com/routes/view/63592004

 

[swuzzlebubble]

You would think we are talking about a new mythical hill near Radelaide that has just been discovered.

 

[Anonymous]

just to erm, get you in the mood
http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/why-old-willunga-hill-makes-such-a-stir

cn dont do race previews like that anymore..

 

[craig1985]

Just employ Hitch to preview races FFS. I'm sure there is something he'll want in return.

 

[Ferminal]

Start 125.67 km
Finish 131.07 km
Total Distance 5.40 km
Start Heigh 101 m
End Height 378 m
Gradient 5.1%

http://www.bikemap.net/route/1350009

the second lap, as said a few posts above does not finish at the usual kom point. Its really not that tough.

That's averaged data, the road isn't 5km long...

It's 3 - 3.5km @ 7 - 8%, depending on where you measure it from.

 

[Ferminal]

Wow, would you believe this?

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/tv-coverage.htm

Saturday 21 January: Jayco Stage 5 LIVE broadcast:
11.00am-3.30pm - Adelaide
10.30am-3pm - Brisbane
11.30am-4pm - Sydney/Melbourne
8.30am-1pm - Perth

Sunday 22 January: Stage 6 LIVE broadcast:
12.30pm-3.30pm - Adelaide
12.00pm-3.00pm - Brisbane
1.00pm-4.00pm - Sydney/Melbourne
10.00am-1.00pm - Perth

Nine broadcasting live in WA!

Also looks like the highlights will be 1 hour long, so we might actually be able to see what happened rather than a cut and paste job. However, they are only on after 11pm which might be tough for some.

International broadcasters
Viewers around the world can watch the Santos Tour Down Under action on the following networks. Please check your local broadcaster for schedule details.

France - Sport+
Ireland - Setanta
Luxembourg - RTL
Norway - TV2Sport
Spain - Teledeporte
UK - Sky Sports and ITV
Pan-Africa - Supersport
USA and Canada - Versus and Rogers
South and Central America - Direct TV
Pan-Asia - Eurosport Asia
Japan - Jsports
Malaysia - Astro
New Zealand - Sky TV

 

[badboyberty]

To clear up confusion about the profile of the hill. You start climbing at about 5km to go, but at first it's only 1 or 2%, then you turn right at about 4km to go and it moves to about 5%, this still isn't considered part of the 'actual' climb. Only at the edge of town when you reach 3km to go is the climb officially started. This is when the road kicks up to between 12 and 15% for a short section. It then mainly eases off gradually with the last km pretty much below 4% the whole time. The bottom half is also really exposed so if it's windy or hot it gets an extra half-star of difficulty (it does tend to be windy and hot a lot here).

It's no Stelvio, but it is steep enough at the bottom that if raced properly the group sprinting for the win should be only 10 or so riders and bigger riders may easily lose a minute or more.

The reason for the 'start' of the hill being 1km or so into the actual climb is to do with a local hill time trial. Although the 'record' is under 8 minutes (with a strong tailwind), normal winning time for the Red Devils TT is between the 8:30 to 9:30 mark (light weight local A graders), 10 to 11 minutes is fast, normal 'fit' cyclists are usually nearer 13 to 15 minutes.

 

[Tuarts]

Wow, would you believe this?

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/tv-coverage.htm


Nine broadcasting live in WA!

Also looks like the highlights will be 1 hour long, so we might actually be able to see what happened rather than a cut and paste job. However, they are only on after 11pm which might be tough for some.

Oh my god. Nine > SBS in something, wow.

 

[Tuarts]

Nah they gave it to Sulzberger because if Giacoppo rode, the majority of UNI-SA would be made up of Genesys/ex Genesys affiliated riders making the AIS look bad. And the team is selected by Cycling Australia.

Lmao according to the TDU website its Wes that's riding!

Anyway:

181. VON HOFF Steele (VIC) - Genesys
182. McCARTHY Jay (QLD) - AIS
183. DENNIS Rohan (SA) - AIS
184. NORRIS Lachlan (VIC) - AIS/Drapac
185. PALMER Tom (ACT) - Drapac
186. SULZBERGER Bernie (TAS) - Fly V
187. CLARKE William (TAS) - Genesys

So 3/2.5 AIS riders, not sure how you can reach an anti-Genesys thing?

 

[BroDeal]

FWIW many pro's directly compare Wilunga to the Poggio, just to give you an idea of difficulty.

Then all you need to do is put it at the end of a 300km long stage and it will liven things up nicely.

 

[Kvinto]

and yet when you put the entire route in mmr it says its 5% lol
http://www.mapmyride.com/routes/view/63592004

I notice this for the first time while creating a local fantasy race for the Race Design Thread. I couldn’t conceive why the hell in MMR climbs I know pretty well as short and steep suddenly turn into longer but flatter ones.

I’m not quite sure tbh how does the MMR work in fact but have two hypotheses in this case:

1. The first is not a hypothesis but a fact: MMR (and I guess not only it) doesn’t ‘know’ where to start and finish a climb. If it starts or finishes (I mean ‘finishes’ in the situation when the ascent ends with a long flat before a descent or another ascent) with a false flat section (1-3%) MMR includes this section in the climb making it longer but flatter in average gradient.

2. It seems to me that the longer route is the less characteristic points per km MMR takes (I mean points in which the program determines actual heights for the profile) ‘smoothing’ the profile out to the one with more constant steepness what leaves no chance of separating the route on steeper and flatter sections. As an example (I faced this problem) you have 2 climbs (lets say 2500m each) one after another separated by a short section of downhill (500m). If you put these climbs in a 150km route MMR will unite them into one 5.5km long climb, making the downhill section less than it actually is, or turning it into flat or even slight uphill, and what’s the most important the steepness of this ‘united’ climb will be totally distorted. But if you put the same hills in a 10km route you’ll have climb #1 - downhill – climb#2 with more credible steepness.

In the end these shortcomings affect mostly little climbs/hills but I found for myself no other solution than drawing an individual profile for the climb that interests me and then (if necessary) manually separating the main section of the climb from a false flat at the bottom of it to finally derive a credible (or half-credible) profile How annoying it is

EDIT: I hope it's understandable that saying 2500m climb i meant its length (not height)

To clear up confusion about the profile of the hill. You start climbing at about 5km to go, but at first it's only 1 or 2%, then you turn right at about 4km to go and it moves to about 5%, this still isn't considered part of the 'actual' climb. Only at the edge of town when you reach 3km to go is the climb officially started. This is when the road kicks up to between 12 and 15% for a short section. It then mainly eases off gradually with the last km pretty much below 4% the whole time. The bottom half is also really exposed so if it's windy or hot it gets an extra half-star of difficulty (it does tend to be windy and hot a lot here).

It's no Stelvio, but it is steep enough at the bottom that if raced properly the group sprinting for the win should be only 10 or so riders and bigger riders may easily lose a minute or more.

The reason for the 'start' of the hill being 1km or so into the actual climb is to do with a local hill time trial. Although the 'record' is under 8 minutes (with a strong tailwind), normal winning time for the Red Devils TT is between the 8:30 to 9:30 mark (light weight local A graders), 10 to 11 minutes is fast, normal 'fit' cyclists are usually nearer 13 to 15 minutes.

I’m glad, you know this hill, so we don’t have to guess, thank you!