My response to this weekend's show of *strength* from team sky...
Saturday, stage 7:
I don't see anything particularly suspicious here. Yes, the UK Postal mountain train was in full flight, but Michael Rodgers, Richie Porte, and Chris Froome are certainly an enviable set of domestiques to have at your disposal. Clean or not, this is one of the teams with the most depth as far as climbers go in this year's tour.
The stage result is not all that unbelievable. Froome won this stage, but his (natural?) ability as a climber for the steepest of gradients shouldn't be doubted, IMO. He clearly has the physique to excel on this sort of finish. In short, I'm not suspicious of Froome winning.
Wiggins, on the other hand, was certainly a bit surprising on this stage. He's clearly lost weight and worked on his climbing, but to be one of the 3 strongest riders on La Planche des Belles Filles, a climb that averaged over 8.5% and maxed at 14%? There's no indication of any result in his past that shows he should be capable of this. For example, in last year’s Vuelta he was strong on the stage that finished at La Covatilla. This was a longer climb (10km), and although it still averaged 7.5%, it was a more consistent 7.5% and Wiggins barely held on to the leaders, with the help of Froome. I see this as consistent with the profile of Wiggins as a time trialist among GC riders, someone who can handle a climb that requires higher speeds and a more steady effort akin to a TT effort. Go ahead 9 months, and a pulling off a similar performance, ahead of more accomplished climbers, seems to indicate some sort of training breakthrough to me…
Sunday, Stage 8:
Nothing particularly interesting here. The UK postal train was less dominant, with Lotto pushing the pace and another select group forming. Not much to discuss here…
Today, Stage 9, ITT:
As far as the rest of Sky, today doesn’t tell us anything. 5 of their 8 riders were instructed to take it easy. Mic Rogers rode a decent effort to take 27th, but certainly not better than expected from a 3-time world ITT champion.
Wiggins clearly rode a great TT today, clean or otherwise. He killed the climbing section and managed to still be faster than anyone else on the flats as well. He did appear to take it easy on the corners in the final section of the course, but this is what he did with the technical sections of the prologue as well. Though this decision is suspicious when one is the yellow jersey in the Tour and has every reason to post as fast a time as possible in view of the upcoming mountains, I’m willing to write this off as a lack of confidence in his bike handling skills and a desire to not take any massive risks. The fact that he won the stage by such a margin is not impossible for a clean Wiggins, I don’t think, even if it is highly unlikely. Martin’s obviously off form, and Cancellara is as well, as evidenced by the fact that Chavanel and Van Garderen were so close to him today. The bottom line is that today was the perfect TT course for Wiggins. His team came right out and said it was the perfect length, and the decent amount of climbing suggests that it was best suited to a rider who can climb and do a flat TT (the second portion of the course). With his track and TT background combined with a new lower weight, I’m not at all surprised to see Wiggins beat Cancellara or anyone else on this course. Nobody could challenge him, though the massive margin over everyone but Froome is definitely more than suspicious.
Chris Froome’s result today is simply unbelievable. He’s 6’1” and 150 lbs. It’s just physically impossible to push a huge amount of wattage over the flat part of a TT course with a physique like that. Aside from his jaw-dropping performance in the TT of last year’s Vuelta, there’s little evidence to suggest that he’s always been capable of this sort of result. As one previous poster (sorry, forget who) pointed out, he also did have a second in a 52km British nat TT, but this doesn’t justify the result against far superior competition today or in the Vuelta last year. He clearly has the physique of a climber, so it’s reasonable that with good training he could perform better than ever before in the mountains at the Vuelta and this year’s tour, but simultaneously being one of the best in two ITTs, one of which was mostly flat, is preposterous. At least Wiggins has a track record of being one of the best time trialists in the world, over the course of several years. Hopefully we’ll be able to see the data from today’s TT for froome, as we did in last year’s vuelta. 5.8 watts/kg is humanly possible, but not the sort of performance that typically comes out of nowhere.
Conclusions:
The bottom line is we don’t know for sure who’s doping or isn’t, but certain riders sure look very suspicious. I don’t think there’s a team-wide doping project underway at Sky, based on the performance of the rest of the team at other races throughout the year. Cav was underwhelming at MSR and other classics, as was EBH. The performance of the Sky Train domestiques in the mountains is not outrageous as most of these riders have successful results as team leaders on their résumés as well. It’s simply a very well assembled team. While Wiggins dominance today is suspicious, his overall trend over the last 4 years has been consistent. After losing weight in 2009, he emerged as a Tour contender on a relatively easy course with a TTT. 2010 saw growing pains and a crash in the 2011 tour ruled him out without revealing much about his progress, though is victory in the Dauphiné that same year shows progress had already been made, as a result of doping or otherwise. He’s currently one of the strongest climbers in this year’s race, but he still could crack in the coming stages, and his TT win was to be expected against a weakened field of specialists on a course tailor-made to his abilities. If he continues to climb better than most of the pure climbers, I will definitely become more suspicious. I believe that Froome, on the other hand, must be doping. He simply came out of nowhere last year at the Vuelta and has repeated this miraculous form again at this year’s Tour despite another bout of a blood disease this off season (A real cynic could even argue that the recurrence of the disease was simply an excuse for manipulated blood values). Despite being a flyweight climber, he turned out a time trial in which he gained time over everyone but Wiggins on the climb, and lost time to no one other than Wiggins on the downhill/flat. This, with no prior history of being a TT specialist (other than the similarly suspicious performance in last year’s Vuelta) raises more than a few red flags.
Of course, there’s always a way to explain this all away. At 27, Froome has just reached his physical peak, and Wiggins’ climbing abilities can be explained by a loss of 20 kilos. And maybe, just maybe, swimming coaches are the future of cycling
