Team Ineos (Formerly the Sky thread)

[D-Queued]

Whoa genius examlel there with Pereiro coz like that year wasn't a complete fluke.

try harder next time

He did try harder: Sastre.
And I would add: Hesjedal, Cobo, Scarponi, Nibali, Andy Schleck, Basso, I won't go on but that's just for the last 3 seasons.

And what isn't a complete fluke? We are in the EPO era of UCI selected winners.

Try harder? I didn't try hard at all.

Though at least I can spell. Perhaps you can put some effort into that.

You forgot about Sastre? Are you calling him a TT god?

Yet, he is the ONLY Tour winner in the last three decades that has nothing on him.

Cannot TT, and no obvious doping implications. He messes up everything.

Both Pereiro and Sastre are so recent and so obvious, that the statement about 'world class TTers' is just plain stupid.

And what about the chicken? Seriously, the dude was going to win the damn thing.

You think he is a TT god?

Going a bit further with the obvious recent examples, Schleckette pulled a Chicken in last year's tour by demonstrating his TT skill with a season-ending yard sale.

Add Frank and Andy to the 'not world class TTer' list.

Any 'student' of the Tour would recognize without effort that Anquetil laid down the modern strategy of kill the TT and hang in the mountains.

Poor Merckx was as deaf as Beethoven, and only heard the 'kill' part on his way to a symphony of wins.

Back to the clear exceptions noted above: Pereiro, Sastre.

Pereiro won by surprising everyone in a breakaway, and something of a miracle personal performance in the final TT on par with Floyd's miracle Stage 17. Once Floyd's Harley was exposed, Oscar got his deserved win.

Sastre won it in the mountains. For a change. Against the TT-disabled Schlecks.

When it comes to refuting the statement on needing to be a world class TTer, we could probably throw Pantani in as an earlier example of a climber's success. Ullrich was killing the TTs while Pantani rode away in the mountains.

For another example, is Giro winner Cunego a world class TTer?

The best TTer of the last decade has never factored as a Tour favorite.

Honestly, I still haven't tried hard at all as all of the above are so damn obvious 'exceptions'.

Dave.

 

[blackcat]

Good point, but plural? Not even sure you can say that in the singular.

Maybe that he almost came close to shedding one tear. Almost. Close.

It was obviously a tough one for him. Maybe he could have called a friend, or asked the audience.

Dave.

one testicle, one tear duct.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

@doc maserati: see what I mean here? Right on cue, the same tired old rubbish gets wheeled out. Wiggins might be doping, but this argument is simply incorrect. Anyone can go look up Wiggins' palmares in both short and long TTs and see that dear wiggo is just plain wrong

Wiggins palmares:

Originally Posted by Libertine Seguros
Bradley Wiggins in ITTs as a pro:

2002:
4th, Circuit des Mines (24km)
3rd, Bohemia Tour (no details, but 50" off Cancellara's winning time around 47 mins)
2nd, Tour de l'Avenir (9km - won by Pozzato of all people)

2003:
21st, Paris-Nice prologue (4,8km)
18th, Paris-Nice full length (16,5km)
5th, Driedaagse De Panne (14km)
65th, Giro d'Italia (42km)
6th, Tour du Poitou Charentes (20km)
1st, Tour de l'Avenir (11km)

2004:
9th, Quatre Jours de Dunkerque (12km)
8th, Bayern Rundfahrt (16km)
15th, Tour de Suisse (26km)
- this looks like the start of the events we can reasonably take notice of.

2005:
14th, Critérium International (8,3km)
1st, Circuit de Lorraine (16km)
11th, Giro d'Italia prologue (1,1km)
34th, Giro d'Italia stage 8 (45km)
138th, Giro d'Italia stage 18 (34km)
2nd, Tour de l'Avenir (no length available/22km) - was Wiggins really still eligible for this in '05?!
7th, World Championships (44,1km)

2006:
7th, Paris-Nice prologue (4,8km)
21st, Dauphiné prologue (4,1km)
16th, Tour de France prologue (7,1km)
28th, Tour de France stage 7 (52km)
55th, Tour de France stage 20 (57km)
21st, Eneco Tour (5,8km)

2007:
2nd, Circuit de la Sarthe (8,8km)
1st, Quatre Jours de Dunkerque (9km)
29th, Volta a Catalunya (17,1km) - note should be disregarded - mountain TT
1st, Dauphiné prologue (4,2km)
44th, Dauphiné (40,7km)
4th, Tour de France prologue (7,9km)
4th (after Vino's demotion), Tour de France stage 13 (54km)
1st, Tour du Poitou Charentes (20km)
10th, World Championships (44,9km)

2008:
2nd, Tour of California prologue (3,4km)
11th, Tour of California (24km)
5th, Tour de Romandie prologue (1,9km)
44th, Tour de Romandie (18,8km)
157th, Giro d'Italia stage 10 (39,4km)
99th, Giro d'Italia stage 16 (12,9km) * disregard - mountain TT
4th, Giro d'Italia stage 21 (28,5km)

2009:
2nd, Paris-Nice prologue (9,3km)
2nd, Critérium International (8,3km)
1st, Driedaagse de Panne (14,8km)
6th, Giro d'Italia stage 12 (60,6km)
2nd, Giro d'Italia stage 21 (15,5km)
3rd, Tour de France stage 1 (15,5km)
6th, Tour de France stage 18 (40,5km)
4th, Eneco Tour prologue (4,4km)
20th, World Championships (49,8km) * mechanical when placed far better than this
1st, Jayco Sun Tour (10km)

Obviously prior to this Wiggins' form had been related to the Olympic cycle, as a track rider, but it's clear from the high consistency that his ITT improved somewhat at the same time as his new climbing legs came into being. Obviously races like the Jayco Tour are ones he could well have been winning anyway, but previously his top results would be tempered with some mediocre ones]
So, game on. It is clear he was a top ten/fifteen TT'er before he lost 12kilograms/learned to climb and became the worlds strongest TT'er.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Wiggins palmares:


So, game on. It is clear he was a top ten/fifteen TT'er before he lost 12kilograms/learned to climb and became the worlds strongest TT'er.

I think the graphs I did above, comparing Cancellara to Wiggins, show who the real "world class" TTer was up until 2009, where Wiggins morphed from a 50% top 10 / 21% podium TTer pre-2009 to a Cancellara topping 73% podiumer and Cancellara matching 88% top 10 TTer.

 

[peterst6906]

I think the graphs I did above, comparing Cancellara to Wiggins, show who the real "world class" TTer was up until 2009, where Wiggins morphed from a 50% top 10 / 21% podium TTer pre-2009 to a Cancellara topping 73% podiumer and Cancellara matching 88% top 10 TTer.

Yeah, because there can be only 1 world class TTer.

More realistically, there is a group of world class TTers, of which no doubt imo Fabian is at the top (assisted or not as it may be).

His position however, doesn't exclude others from also being world class.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah, because there can be only 1 world class TTer.

More realistically, there is a group of world class TTers, of which no doubt imo Fabian is at the top (assisted or not as it may be).

His position however, doesn't exclude others from also being world class.

I agree. Tony is also a world class TTer. Pre-'09 Wiggins wasn't.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I agree. Tony is also a world class TTer. Pre-'09 Wiggins wasn't.

I don't give this analysis too much weight, but the numbers actually surprised me. I thought Fabian was much more successful than his pre-2009 figures showed. (I should go back and do pre/post-2008).

To me, it looks like what you expect a good TTer who is not doping would look like: still good in terms of top 10s, but struggling for the podium conversions of those top 10s.

Then BPassport kicks in and gradually the peloton cleans up, and now Fabian is converting many more of his top 10s to podiums. And his weight has been stable, for the most part.

Wiggins now matches Fabian, it's just pre-2009 he wasn't worth anywhere near as much in a TT. His turn around just looks... and he dropped 13kg in the process of that turn around.

Bear in mind: the discussion this is focusing on is "Wiggins was always a world-class TTer", as espoused by the PhD ex-AIS/NSWIS employee Krebs Cycle.

Or more specifically:

Wiggins has not improved his performance in short ITTs such as prologues compared with Cancellara from 2007 through 2012.

Well pretty much the entire basis of the "Wiggins is doping theory" is predicated on the assumption that he suddenly and dramatically improved performance around 2009. Quite a few people either stated or implied that Wiggins showed no potential in road TTs prior to 2009. However, after a single day of researching road TT and prologue results comparing Wiggins performances to Cancellara from 2005 through 2012, I found that assumption to be 100% completely and utterly false. One spurious result here or there in a GT is going to be more subject to variability due to conditions, fatigue or team tactics. So the best way to compare performances are prologues and TT championships, and if we look at those, then Wiggins has consistently remained within 3 or 4% behind Cancellara. He didn't suddenly start whipping Cancellara's tail post 2009. So in fact, there are quite a few people who don't know their cycling history very well.

This one is my favourite of all:

There is a large body of evidence which suggests that increased endurance training inhibits strength and power gains. So to achieve an increase in TT and climbing ability which requires endurance training is very likely to impair improvement in sprint ability.

The difference between TT on the flat and climbing ability is all about the trade off between absolute engine size, frontal surface area and watts per kg. Bigger cyclists such as Cancellara have bigger aerobic engines (ie: VO2max in L/min), which more than accounts for the detrimental effect of the increase in frontal surface area (ie: increased wind resistance), so these guys have the advantage on the flat. However, once you start going uphill, the velocity is much lower, so the need to overcome wind resistance is less important which means the advantage of the bigger engine is diminished, whereas the amount of weight you need to move uphill against gravity now becomes the limiting factor, so watts per kg is the variable that is required to be a great climber. Smaller cyclists have the advantage here because as you get bigger, the increase in aerobic power is not proportional to the increase in mass since you have a lot more weight to carry that isn't involved in energy production eg: bone, conective tissue etc Therefore, VO2max in ml/kg/min tends to be higher in the smaller guys.

More importantly though, placing in a GT is a fairly poor method of examining performance changes due to doping. Comparing TT performances from year to year is much better method because it removes many of the confounding factors such as team tactics and differences in tour preparation.

If you examine Wiggins' TT performance over the period in question ie: 2008-2010 it does NOT dramatically increase. In 2008 he comes 4th in the final ITT, 7 sec behind Tony Martin and in 2009 he is 2nd. In the TdF in 2009 he is 6th in the ITT 40sec back from Cancellara and Contator. Where is the big increase in performance you are talking about?

Again, you are basing your evidence on GT placing only. See above. This is a poor method of detecting true changes in performance due to PEDs. Look at the road ITT performances, or better still, look at his performances on the track. He won 5 gold medals at olympic and world championship level in 2008, yet there is absolutely no evidence from ITT results that he then suddenly improved in 2009. Where are the 20, 30, 40 sec wins over Tony Martin and Cancellara?

 

[acoggan]

What an ocean of tears there would be if every student who failed and was told to "study harder" started crying because they felt "berated".

Dear Wiggo is apparently what a colleague of mine refers to as a "new millenial" student.

Long TTs and short TTs and the IP are all events in which the duration dictates that the aerobic energy system dominates the total energetic contribution. If you are good at one, chances are you will be good at the others. Hence the reason why many of the world's best long TT'ists also perform exceptionally well in short prologues and why numerous world class IP'ers whom have turned their hand to road have performed exceptionally well in prologues and/or long TTs.

A.k.a. "It's an aerobic sport, dammit!"

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

A.k.a. "It's an aerobic sport, dammit!"

In that case it would be nice if Contador should choose to switch to track wouldn't it? What about the Froomster?

So, I will stop joking, you are actually saying a 4K time trial on fixed gear could be a good indication on what someone could do in a 3 week, 3600 kilometres, race? Even explain?

I agree on the prologue possibilities but GT contender? No way. One week races like Paris - Nice? Yes, with the right course/profile that is.

 

[The Hitch]

But you know very well that nobody ever won a GT without being a world class TTer, and therefore you.

I think its time for you to pack up your bags and leave this discussion to.people who have actually seen a bike race before.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Wow, this really has sunken to a new level of ridiculousness.

You dragged it down there.

Every one of you (except dr Maserati) completely ignored the crux of my post which was that TWO important characteristics are required to be successful in GTs. In reality of course what this means is some combination of both. but instead you're now trying to tell us that you don't need to be good at ITTs to be successful in GTs. Gee wouldn't that imply that if you were good at TTs (like Wiggins and many others are/have been) then you would have an advantage over those whom are not?

Tops list hrotha, you just proved my point..... every single one of those cyclists LOST a GT because they weren't good enough at time trialing.

Of course you need a combination of both - but it is ridiculous to focus on those 2 qualities.

sigh. I'll leave you guys in peace once again to endlessly argue about stuff you've got idea about. A bit like a couple of bus drivers arguing about which knee reconstruction surgery technique is the best.

Why don't you remind us again that you have a PhD - you do realize why you have to tell us that you have a PhD, don't you?

Or better still, can you show if there is a test of any type that will differentiate between a GT winner and World class rider? By that I mean can you put little Johhny on a test bike and say, 'sorry son, you will win Liege a Paris Nice, but you won't crack a top 5 in the Tour'.
Does any type of test exist, yes or no.

If the answer is no, then knee replacement is as good a subject to discuss regarding GTs as TTs or 4km pursuits, and I will let you show your superiority there.

 

[hrotha]

Tops list hrotha, you just proved my point..... every single one of those cyclists LOST a GT because they weren't good enough at time trialing.

I wasn't addressing any broader points you might have been making. I was addressing one very specific point you made: that you couldn't win a GT without being a world class time-trialist. Which is high-grade malarkey.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

So, I will stop joking, you are actually saying a 4K time trial on fixed gear could be a good indication on what someone could do in a 3 week, 3600 kilometres, race? Even explain?

I guess it works the other way, in that there will be an IP power level below which it would be nigh on impossible to generate the power necessary to be competitive in a longer TT in a GT and hence nigh on impossible to win a GT.

Given the short duration of an IP and the cubic relationship between speed and power, even a seemingly small difference in IP performance would be significant.

eg if you have two riders, one riding 4:15 and the other 4:20, then there is a 2% speed difference ie 8% power difference between the two riders. All other things equal, the 4:15 rider has much more chance than the 4:20 rider, as an 8% power difference is EPO-like in its significance.

I doubt, realistically, one could estimate a rider's ability to recover during a GT from the IP, unless (possibly) one looks at time through the rounds. In both Athens and Beijing, Wiggo was much more consistent thorughout the rounds than anyone else, fading less from 1st qualifying to final than his rivals, suggesting he had superior recovery power. I don't know if this is significant, as the recovery required is from "lactic legs" rather than reduced red blood cell supplies.

 

[acoggan]

In that case it would be nice if Contador should choose to switch to track wouldn't it?

Indeed, given his riding style I suspect he'd make a very good points or Madison rider (with adequate track-specific training, of course).

What about the Froomster?

Can't say I have enough of an idea of his relative strengths and weaknesses to really say. Regardless, you're making (yet another) straw man argument, as the saying "it's an aerobic sport, dammit!" refers to road racing, not track cycling (although the majority of events on the track are primarily aerobic in nature, of course).

you are actually saying a 4K time trial on fixed gear could be a good indication on what someone could do in a 3 week, 3600 kilometres, race? Even explain?

I agree on the prologue possibilities but GT contender? No way. One week races like Paris - Nice? Yes, with the right course/profile that is.

Having a sufficiently high VO2max is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for elite performance in any endurance sport. Both the pursuit and a GT are predominantly aerobic in nature. Ergo, someone who can ride a fast 4 km pursuit obviously possesses at least one of the physiological traits needed to perform well in stage races.

Or to put it another way: from a physiological perspective, there's a very good reason why the Australian and now British approach of using their national endurance track team as a feeder system into professional road cycling works quite well...

 

[acoggan]

I wasn't addressing any broader points you might have been making. I was addressing one very specific point you made: that you couldn't win a GT without being a world class time-trialist. Which is high-grade malarkey.

It may not be impossible, but it is clearly much more difficult...otherwise Nibali wouldn't be working so hard these days to improve his TTing ability.

 

[Ferminal]

Then you get someone like Durbridge who is 4-5" slower than Bobridge/Dennis/Hepburn on the track but stomps them over 40 minutes.

 

[hrotha]

It may not be impossible, but it is clearly much more difficult...otherwise Nibali wouldn't be working so hard these days to improve his TTing ability.

Of course, that's obvious. That's not what he said though.

 

[Lanark]

I do know one thing, I'm gonna make a ton of money betting on Bobridge and Phinney the next couple of years, it's only a matter of time until they start dominating the GT's.

 

[thehog]

I do know one thing, I'm gonna make a ton of money betting on Bobridge and Phinney the next couple of years, it's only a matter of time until they start dominating the GT's.

Forgone conclusion.

Science is exact.

They'll also be another 10% drop in speed due to the next doping scandal.

 

[mastersracer]

I think the graphs I did above, comparing Cancellara to Wiggins, show who the real "world class" TTer was up until 2009, where Wiggins morphed from a 50% top 10 / 21% podium TTer pre-2009 to a Cancellara topping 73% podiumer and Cancellara matching 88% top 10 TTer.

1, you do realize that Cancellara has been implicated in OP and is likely the rider known as Luigi.

2. Given the critical power discussion (which you continue to misunderstand) it is entirely plausible that Wiggins' ABSOLUTE performance has been relatively constant while that of his competitors has declined, thereby improving his relative performance.

 

[the sceptic]

1, you do realize that Cancellara has been implicated in OP and is likely the rider known as Luigi.

2. Given the critical power discussion (which you continue to misunderstand) it is entirely plausible that Wiggins' ABSOLUTE performance has been relatively constant while that of his competitors has declined, thereby improving his relative performance.

How about Wiggins improvement vs Tony Martin from 2011 to 2012? Did Martin stop doping as well?

 

[acoggan]

Then you get someone like Durbridge who is 4-5" slower than Bobridge/Dennis/Hepburn

4-5 s in a 4 km pursuit = only ~2%. Just sayin'...

 

[acoggan]

How about Wiggins improvement vs Tony Martin from 2011 to 2012? Did Martin stop doping as well?

As even Martin himself sees it, he went backwards due to injury, etc. But (to quote the Great Gipper), there you go again, ignoring quantitative analyses (no matter how limited) in favor of subjective judgments and relative comparisons to moving targets.

 

[acoggan]

Forgone conclusion.

Science is exact.

Straw man argument = sign of a weak position (and possibly mind).

 

[acoggan]

I doubt, realistically, one could estimate a rider's ability to recover during a GT from the IP, unless (possibly) one looks at time through the rounds. In both Athens and Beijing, Wiggo was much more consistent thorughout the rounds than anyone else, fading less from 1st qualifying to final than his rivals, suggesting he had superior recovery power. I don't know if this is significant, as the recovery required is from "lactic legs" rather than reduced red blood cell supplies.

In my experience, said recovery really has more to do with how the athlete in question has trained in the weeks and months preceding the competition than any innate physiological "toughness". (OTOH, the ability to not break down under high training/racing loads would pay off in both situations.)