Dear Wiggo said:
Good post, WW.
According to affidavits from the USADA investigation, 2006 is the year everyone stopped doping, then according to JV, a truce was called in 2008.
Having read David Millar's book now, the whole "track focus" thing looks even less explanatory in terms of reason for lack of performance from Brad, for me. Mainly due to the clean Millar beating a doped Armstrong in a Tour prologue, matching Brad in another prologue and winning national TT and IP titles, all clean after 2 years out of the sport.
Couple this with Brad's team mate, Rob Hayles having an interesting Hct in 2008, very deftly handled by DB, and Brad's apparently very amorous feelings towards Armstrong the year he broke into the big leagues (2009), there's still too much of a cloud of doping doubt surrounding his rise to the top for me.
My concern with the track results graph you suggest remains. Namely that it's such a small pond that the big fish's accomplishments are too greatly amplified. The assumption is also that he was clean riding the track. It's pretty clear doping was going on when Brad was soundly beating other IPers, which further compounds my unease about that graph.
Add a slight 2nd week blood profile tremor for both his 2009 Giro and Tour, and I'm too far gone to accept this performance from 2009 on has been clean.
Re. bolded section, I saw some discussion around observations that all the blood profiles taken at that time in the Tour showed similar tremors indicating a testing variation, I haven't seen anything about the Giro results, but this is the main reason why I think all blood profiles should be released not just those of a few riders, and can understand the team being wary this time even if Brad has repeated that he'd like to release his own but has been advised against it.
Rob Hayles tripped a 50.3 Hct with a 'normal' base of 46, well within the actual normal human physiological range that I have seen quoted various places as extending up to 52 Hct. He had a two week monitoring period, returned to normal levels and was given an exemption certificate. DB's immediate reaction of unconditional support doesn't indicate any suspicion on his part of Rob Hayles doping to me.
On the David Millar note, it is a while since I read his book and got it from the library so cannot re-read it immediately, but I seem to recall his main track interest was based around competing in the Commonwealth Games for Scotland. He was four years of development as a rider ahead of Brad though, and far from as focused on the track, in fact, given Brad's earlier years of road invisibility you could almost say Brad's only now in his 4th year of real development as a road rider now

(or 7th if you include the Cofidis years, with a gap year taken for Beijing in 2008 at HCT/Columbia and after the Moreni strop and kit binning episode). Bradley McGee was at the same state of development as Millar and can be more directly compared in terms of relative performance having come up against the pair of them road and track. I haven't done this yet though

sounds like something to keep me busy for a few days if I get bored over Christmas.
One of the things that got me thinking about the motivation/mental side of his early performance by the way was the reflective interview with Sandy Casar on CN where he said none of the riders back then would ever know how good they could have been because of the doping. He is one year older than Brad, has had two more years in the peloton (and is clearly far more eloquent on the subject).
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/casar-doping-falsified-everything