Team Ineos (Formerly the Sky thread)

[Red Lobster]

Martin didn't race Wiggins and Froome that much in 2012 the one time he raced them fit and wasn't beset by mechanicals he lost by less than a second.

I'm not thinking of just one year here.

ETA:

And since there's a "nitpicking of non-existent nits" theme going here, I'll anticipate the next response and say I'm not thinking of just Martin and Cancellara here (which is why I used "like").

 

[Catwhoorg]

Yet he is the 2011 and 2013 silver medalist at the World Elite men TT.

Beating a sub-par Tony Martin into 2nd place, is not of itself something suspicious for Wiggo at the Olympics. Even in his track focus days he generally wasn top #10 (one notable exception being 2009 when he was 5 min off the pace).

2005 top #10
2006 Did not race
2007 top #10
2008 Did not race
2009 well down (and Froome actually beat him)
2010 did not race
2011 Silver
2012 Did not race
2013 Silver

I'll go out on a limb and suggest he will medal in 2014 as well, though I doubt it will be gold.

 

[SundayRider]

Yet he is the 2011 and 2013 silver medalist at the World Elite men TT.

Beating a sub-par Tony Martin into 2nd place, is not of itself something suspicious for Wiggo at the Olympics. Even in his track focus days he generally wasn top #10 (one notable exception being 2009 when he was 5 min off the pace).

2005 top #10
2006 Did not race
2007 top #10
2008 Did not race
2009 well down (and Froome actually beat him)
2010 did not race
2011 Silver
2012 Did not race
2013 Silver

I'll go out on a limb and suggest he will medal in 2014 as well, though I doubt it will be gold.

Yet before his 'transformation' into a GC rider he did very little of note in grand tour TTs.

 

[Red Lobster]

Ok, let's just do a quick thought experiment on the weight-loss-but-time-trial-better thing.

What would we all be saying if Taylor Phinney starves himself, drops 10kg, and not only starts defending himself on the cols, but actually improves in the chrono as well. And wins the Tour. ?

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Ok, let's just do a quick thought experiment on the weight-loss-but-time-trial-better thing.

What would we all be saying if Taylor Phinney starves himself, drops 10kg, and not only starts defending himself on the cols, but actually improves in the chrono as well. And wins the Tour. ?

Is that not just subjective though?

Is Wiggins actually TTing better than what he is capable of previously?
And while the Phinney point you bring up would be questionable - if you lose weight, you should theoretically climb better and improve your performance overall.
(To a point)

 

[Netserk]

Is that not just subjective though?

Is Wiggins actually TTing better than what he is capable of previously?
And while the Phinney point you bring up would be questionable - if you lose weight, you should theoretically climb better and improve your performance overall.
(To a point)

Wiggins ITT wins per year:

2013: 2
2012: 7
2011: 1
2010: 2
2009: 3
2008: 0
2007: 3

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Wiggins ITT wins per year:

2013: 2
2012: 7
2011: 1
2010: 2
2009: 3
2008: 0
2007: 3

Thanks, what does that mean.

 

[del1962]

It means 2008 was an Olympic year (for the track)

 

[Netserk]

Thanks, what does that mean.

Well I thought you wanted something measurable. Otherwise I would just have answered: Wiggins TTed far better in 2012 than he ever had before.

 

[Red Lobster]

Is that not just subjective though?

Is Wiggins actually TTing better than what he is capable of previously?
And while the Phinney point you bring up would be questionable - if you lose weight, you should theoretically climb better and improve your performance overall.
(To a point)

Is what subjective, that 69kg Wigans is better at the chrono than 78kg Wigans? In results, the answer is yes. Not sure what you mean by what he was "capable of previously" ... all we have is results, do we have reason to think he wasn't trying hard before, and if he had he would have been the top chrono man at 78kg as well?

Ok I muddled the point on Phinney with the Tour win comment. Try this: 80kg Phinney is one of the best chrono guys in the world, but still a notch below Martin, Wigans, et al. If he crashed his weight to 70 kg would we expect he'd suddenly start trouncing everyone in the chrono? No way, in fact we'd be stunned if he didn't take a step backward.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Well I thought you wanted something measurable. Otherwise I would just have answered: Wiggins TTed far better in 2012 than he ever had before.

I was indeed looking for something measurable - instead you gave me his results.

 

[the sceptic]

Yet he is the 2011 and 2013 silver medalist at the World Elite men TT.

Beating a sub-par Tony Martin into 2nd place, is not of itself something suspicious for Wiggo at the Olympics. Even in his track focus days he generally wasn top #10 (one notable exception being 2009 when he was 5 min off the pace).

2005 top #10
2006 Did not race
2007 top #10
2008 Did not race
2009 well down (and Froome actually beat him)
2010 did not race
2011 Silver
2012 Did not race
2013 Silver

I'll go out on a limb and suggest he will medal in 2014 as well, though I doubt it will be gold.

Martin 1:16 ahead in Copenhagen, 0:42 behind in London.

Cancellara 0:05 behind in Copenhagen, 2:14 behind in London.

Grabsch 0:15 behind in Copenhagen, 2:38 behind in London.

Westra 2:03 behind in Copenhagen, 3:40 behind in London.

Fuglsang 2:15 behind in Copenhagen ,3:55 behind in London.

Castroviejo 2:19 behind in Copenhagen, 2:50 behind in London.

Brajkovic 2:30 behind in Copenhagen, 3:30 behind in London.

Phinney 2:36 behind in Copenhagen, 1:58 behind in London.

Im going to do a Hog and quote myself here. As you can see, Wiggins had a massive improvement against everyone from 2011 to 2012 (except Phinnay)

Good post Sceptic.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

snipped...
No way, in fact we'd be stunned if he didn't take a step backward.

Nah, instead many of us would suspect "serious" doping.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Is what subjective, that 69kg Wigans is better at the chrono than 78kg Wigans? In results, the answer is yes. Not sure what you mean by what he was "capable of previously" ... all we have is results, do we have reason to think he wasn't trying hard before, and if he had he would have been the top chrono man at 78kg as well?

The results are meaningless.
Is he actually faster than his previous times (I would assume so) and if so by how much.

Ok I muddled the point on Phinney with the Tour win comment. Try this: 80kg Phinney is one of the best chrono guys in the world, but still a notch below Martin, Wigans, et al. If he crashed his weight to 70 kg would we expect he'd suddenly start trouncing everyone in the chrono? No way, in fact we'd be stunned if he didn't take a step backward.

I don't think Wiggo trounced anyone. If you think he did, fine.
More weight will suit someone for TTs - but less for during the Tour.
The Tour TTs are as much about recovery and its more a scrap than a test.

Phinney looks lean already - not much to drop unless they saw his legs shorter.

 

[Red Lobster]

The results are meaningless.

Ok, I guess we are on different pages then. To me, how you stack up over time against the pro peloton as a whole is a reasonable proxy for getting better or getting worse. Like if you have a history of coming 10th - 20th in GTs and then one year you win one, I'd say you've gotten better.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Ok, I guess we are on different pages then. To me, how you stack up over time against the pro peloton as a whole is a reasonable proxy for getting better or getting worse. Like if you have a history of coming 10th - 20th in GTs and then one year you win one, I'd say you've gotten better.

Well, no - if the 19 people who beat you are not in the race, that could be a reason, if you were injured one year, that would have an effect.

Honestly, I really do not see what relevance bringing either Phinney, or Wiggins results (which are all over the place anyway) as a sign of anything.
All that shows was he was faster than his peers.

My question remains - is, as you suggest Wiggins actually faster or producing more power than he previously did.
I would assume yes, but you can only compare like with like, which a results sheet won't really show.

 

[Red Lobster]

Well, no - if the 19 people who beat you are not in the race, that could be a reason, if you were injured one year, that would have an effect.

Honestly, I really do not see what relevance bringing either Phinney, or Wiggins results (which are all over the place anyway) as a sign of anything.
All that shows was he was faster than his peers.

My question remains - is, as you suggest Wiggins actually faster or producing more power than he previously did.
I would assume yes, but you can only compare like with like, which a results sheet won't really show.

Well I can't give you Wigans' SRM files for the past decade so I guess we're stuck. I mean, even "faster" is subjective by your measure, unless we are measuring at the same indoor track on the same equipment, given all the extraneous factors that could influence speed. But I think that's absurd. I still think material swings in performance relative to the pro peloton over time can tell us a lot.

 

[Netserk]

I was indeed looking for something measurable - instead you gave me his results.

Are you claiming number of wins isn't measurable?

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Well I can't give you Wigans' SRM files for the past decade so I guess we're stuck.

I didn't ask for that - and we're not stuck, you are.
I actually agree with your overall theory - but adding irrelevant stuff like Phinney dilutes that.

I mean, even "faster" is subjective by your measure, unless we are measuring at the same indoor track on the same equipment, given all the extraneous factors that could influence speed. But I think that's absurd. I still think material swings in performance relative to the pro peloton over time can tell us a lot.

As far as I remember, some people went to a lot of work showing the actual changes over time.
And TTs ridden at full potential should be a lot more consistent
particularly his 10 mile TT results that he did in the UK - that would be a good start.

 

[The Hitch]

Ok, let's just do a quick thought experiment on the weight-loss-but-time-trial-better thing.

What would we all be saying if Taylor Phinney starves himself, drops 10kg, and not only starts defending himself on the cols, but actually improves in the chrono as well. And wins the Tour. ?

Taylor phinney has actually been awesome in long tts before (well the 2012 worlds anyway). Pre omerta Wiggins what was his best long tt result? 5th at the tdf was it. 8th or some such at the worlds.

 

[pastronef]

JTL doped at Endura?

Looks like it - and Sky still bought him.
Funny thing to do for a clean team.

Sky signed JTLocke a good few months before the news about his bio-passport problems broke out

ps. welcome Graham_S, your post put a spark in this thread

 

[The Hitch]

2009 well down (and Froome actually beat him)
.

He was going to finish 3rd/4th but had a mechanical on the final lap.

 

[Catwhoorg]

He was going to finish 3rd/4th but had a mechanical on the final lap.

Did not know that. Thanks Hitch.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

JTL doped at Endura?



Sky signed JTLocke a good few months before the news about his bio-passport problems broke out

ps. welcome Graham_S, your post put a spark in this thread

The Passport issue is from just before his appearance at the WC in September - in October Sky announce they signed him.

 

[RownhamHill]

Ok, I guess we are on different pages then. To me, how you stack up over time against the pro peloton as a whole is a reasonable proxy for getting better or getting worse. Like if you have a history of coming 10th - 20th in GTs and then one year you win one, I'd say you've gotten better.

What if you're a clean athlete with a history of coming fifteenth, in a peloton with an endemic doping problem, and then the regulatory environment changes (let's say, for example, some kind of peloton wide longitudinal blood monitoring programme is introduced). Let's assume you then start placing top 3 regularly, and one year (when the two dominant athletes in the discipline happen to suffer all year with injury) you are top dog.

Did you get faster in absolute terms, or did your results improve because others got slower?