Freddythefrog said:
Brad was on the fringes of it all. He had won Olympic gold and found out like Boardman before, that this didn't make him rich and so went and lived in the boozer. He was out of it. No future. Undoubtedly his father's end was a vivid signpost to the choices that lay ahead. Brailsford dried him out and like Keen before him, Brailsford had plenty to gain and little to lose, so reinforced the stark choices ahead and gave him a vision of how Wiggo (and Sir David) could make money from this seriously scr**ed up sport. Wiggo went full *** and the rest is history.
Freddythefrog said:
For Radcliffe it was the same. At the 93 World Championships she had a 7th; 5th in 95. At the Olympics in 1996 it was a 5th as well. The World Champs in 97 and the CG in 98 brought no spoils. This career was going to end with none of the riches, the Monaco life style, the hobnobbing with "stars" of the day - "look mummy who is that alongside the gallant knight Sir Chris, close by Sir David ?" I don't know about the relationship with her husband but it draws comment elsewhere. Was he taking the role of a Brailsford or Keen, "WE have put X years into this and all you have to do now is ....." You can decide if in 1999, after 6 years of getting her teeth kicked in, Radcliffe found the precursor of "marginal gains" and was able to fine tune her training regime so that she went from "plucky Brit loser" to fastest ever, ever, in the history of humankind, just at a time when epo usage was at its most epic.
Freddy,
I'm not questioning your overall conclusions, for as Father In Law says about investments, "If it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is."
However, your timetable of events for Sir Brad and PR don't seem quite right. (It could be that I've misinterpreted your post.)
Wiggo's post Olympics bender was after Athens in the winter of 2004-2005 whereas his Dad died in early 2008, by which time he'd had a couple of kids, won the World Champs again and was gunning for Beijing. Wiggo also was at pretty much the same level in the IP in 2008 as he was in 2004, as demonstrated by his times in the OGs each year. (His efforts were clustered in the 4:15-4:18 range across both Games). Post Beijing in 2008 there's no suggestion that Wiggo went and lived in the pub - he went straight into whatever preparation he did for the 2009 Tour.
So there's no logical connection between all of i) the death of his father, ii) being dried out after post Olympic depression and ii) going "Full ***". If a decision to go "Full ***" was made, it was made in the cool and sober light of day post Beijing. (Unless he soft-pedalled during competitions in 2005-2008 and only unleashed the Full *** form from the gym in 2009.)
Re Radcliffe, her big jump in performance levels came in 2002 (30:27 to 30:01 in the 10k) but she was only 28 in 2002, so the improvement from her 1999 previous PB isn't overly suspicious in relative terms. There's no indication that anything that happened in 1999 triggered anything doping-wise, as the 2000 OGs and the 2001 WCs saw the usual story play out - PR grinds down most but not all of her rivals and then gets outsprinted for the medals.
Her major successes came on the road in 2002 and later, but these were events she didn't race seriously before this year, so there's no easy way to compare her 2002 and onwards performance levels in the Marathon to her pre 2002 performances. She didn't race on the track in major competitions after 2002, so it's hard to compare track performances "pre and post" as well.
Finally I'm intrigued as to why you attribute such an unlikely quote to PR's children, who, let's not forget, are aged 7 and 4. There's more chance of PR's marathon record being genuine than there is of kids this age saying "Look mummy who is that alongside the gallant knight Sir Chris, close by Sir David ?" Is there any particular reason why you felt the need to taint your otherwise thoughtful post with what is clearly bullsh*t?