Team Ineos (Formerly the Sky thread)

[Parker]

The thing is, of course, with things like echelons, the GT contender doesn't necessarily need to attack on the flat; if anything, in the crosswinds, that would be the stupid thing to do, the best thing is to drill it on the front with their team and try to break others. Being extra vigilant there IS very much part of putting pressure on others in a flat stage and trying to gain time. Like, which Belkin domestique was it who caught an earful from Froome about why his team weren't working in that 2013 stage, only to give the answer "because our guys are at the front"?

But if there's no climb in the last 20km and no significant crosswinds the only thing that can cause a GC issue is a crash. So all you have to worry about is staying in the front third for the last 30-40km. It doesn't require, going back to the origins of this discussion, constant fretting for the whole stage or any interest in where your rivals are.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

But if there's no climb in the last 20km and no significant crosswinds the only thing that can cause a GC issue is a crash. So all you have to worry about is staying in the front third for the last 30-40km. It doesn't require, going back to the origins of this discussion, constant fretting for the whole stage or any interest in where your rivals are.

Yeah nah. There's 60 other blokes who all want to be at the front also. If you've never raced in a big bunch, you really do not know what you're talking about.

You can't drift along all laissez faire. You have to be switched on, constantly.

You cannot account for poor bike handling or sudden pot holes.

But sure, keep banging on about things you've never done being easy. Quality.

 

[Parker]

Yeah nah. There's 60 other blokes who all want to be at the front also. If you've never raced in a big bunch, you really do not know what you're talking about.

You can't drift along all laissez faire. You have to be switched on, constantly.

You cannot account for poor bike handling or sudden pot holes.

But sure, keep banging on about things you've never done being easy. Quality.

Which Grand Tour have you ridden? Your Cat 3 criteriums won't give you any insight into pro racing.

In any stage race there are GC riders in good form and GC riders in poor form. And they all seem to manage to stay near enough the front on flat stages. And that was the original point. It was about only needing to be 'on form' for about 8-12 hours of a GT.

 

[Netserk]

But if there's no climb in the last 20km and no significant crosswinds the only thing that can cause a GC issue is a crash. So all you have to worry about is staying in the front third for the last 30-40km. It doesn't require, going back to the origins of this discussion, constant fretting for the whole stage or any interest in where your rivals are.

Did you see Contador in the final kms of the first couple of flat stages last year? Do you think that was easy?

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Which Grand Tour have you ridden? Your Cat 3 criteriums won't give you any insight to pro racing.

I've raced in big bunches.

The concepts are the same, despite your lack of experience pricking you to put me down.

You haven't done it.

It's like childless people giving parents advice on how to raise their kids.

But you're clearly incredibly intelligent and logical, with years of experience doing engineery stuff so I am sure your TV bike racing experience trumps my actual racing experience.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

If you ever come to Australia, Parker, come down to Black Rock around 6:30 on a Saturday mate. Would love to introduce you to the Cat 3 criterium I do down there.

 

[Parker]

I've raced in big bunches.

The concepts are the same, despite your lack of experience pricking you to put me down.

You haven't done it.

In these big bunches did you have half a dozen teammates dedicated to protecting you? Because if not, you haven't done it either.

I have actually played a sport at a fairly decent standard. I've played with and against people who have played at the highest levels. But I know sod all about it at the highest level. I've never deluded myself that I know what it's like.

 

[thehog]

Yeah nah. There's 60 other blokes who all want to be at the front also. If you've never raced in a big bunch, you really do not know what you're talking about.

You can't drift along all laissez faire. You have to be switched on, constantly.

You cannot account for poor bike handling or sudden pot holes.

But sure, keep banging on about things you've never done being easy. Quality.

Who needs marginal gains when you can take it easy in the peloton.

 

[Parker]

Did you see Contador in the final kms of the first couple of flat stages last year? Do you think that was easy?

It's not easy. But for someone of Contador's abilities and team support it's not particularly difficult either.

Did you see him in the first 90% of the stage? Did he look like he was riding even remotely as hard as he does in training every day.

Which do you think is harder work for him - A typical training day or a stage where Kittel wins?

 

[The Hitch]

Page after page questioning or defending bobbins' posts and credibility. Reminds me a little of the scrutiny Race Radio faced in the Lance years.

Or those questioning Race Radio's credibility after he asked PR if she was the unnamed athlete.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Who needs marginal gains when you can take it easy in the peloton.

I watch Transformers cartoons. Robots are easy!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

But if there's no climb in the last 20km and no significant crosswinds the only thing that can cause a GC issue is a crash. So all you have to worry about is staying in the front third for the last 30-40km. It doesn't require, going back to the origins of this discussion, constant fretting for the whole stage or any interest in where your rivals are.

The problem that we have right now is that too few courses are splitting the bunch up early. The 2014 Tour, with the Sheffield stage that Nibali won, is actually one of the best in recent years for that. The 2011 Tour had so many crashes early on because it didn't have any finish that sorted the contenders from the pretenders in the first half of the race, so everybody still had something to protect. Avoiding a crash becomes harder and harder when you have 15 teams all trying to be near the front to protect their GC man, and all the other teams trying to be near the front to lead out a sprint. There's only so much room up there, and while yes, the big GC men have riders to protect them, there's only so much that can be done if there's a really big one. The 2011 Tour lost half its GC field in the first week that way. That's what the "easy" first mountain stage (see Montevergine di Mercogliano, for example) or the hard rouleur stage (cobbles in 2014 Tour, sterrato in 2010 Giro, for example) in week 1 is really for; make gaps appear. Make some of the hangers-on re-evaluate their race, go stagehunting or what have you; if they're no longer fighting to be at the front, there's more space and fewer riders fighting over it, so it's easier to "just be vigilant".

But until the pack's order has been shuffled on the GC, everybody still has something to protect and needs to be near the front. The fear of losing out also makes the péloton nervous and more prone to crashing. You don't need to have done anything to a high standard to understand that the more worried you are about making a mess of something, the more likely you are to make that mess of it.

 

[BYOP88]

Didn't Big Mig attack on a flat stage in 93 or 94? If I remember correctly it was a day before a ITT and he wanted to mix it up a little.

 

[burning]

Didn't Big Mig attack on a flat stage in 93 or 94? If I remember correctly it was a day before a ITT and he wanted to mix it up a little.

That stage was quite hilly, I'm pretty sure that Parker will not consider it as a flat stage.

 

[thehog]

Didn't Big Mig attack on a flat stage in 93 or 94? If I remember correctly it was a day before a ITT and he wanted to mix it up a little.

I think he was just "upping the pace"

 

[Dr. Juice]

Didn't Big Mig attack on a flat stage in 93 or 94? If I remember correctly it was a day before a ITT and he wanted to mix it up a little.

TdF Liège 1995

 

[mortand]

Yes, he did. It was in 1995, though, the stage to Liege. Bruyneel tagged along for the ride, and Bjarne Riis fought for dear life in Yellow in the peloton. I think there were something like 30 riders or so left in the shattered peloton at the finish line. The ITT was the day after, as you mention, BYOP88, the stage where Riis suddenly discovered he could time trial, and almost beat Big Mig. Hilarious!

 

[Parker]

Stuff I mostly agree with

But there has to be a balance between avoiding risk and the effort needed to avoid that risk. And as such pelotons evolve in response to changing lead out trains. For the GC guys some sort of game theory kicks in to establish order. While once a GC rider may have been surrounded by his team at the front (see especially Evans) now a smaller two man bodyguard is preferred. With less men at the front it makes every GC rider's day easier.

 

[Parker]

That stage was quite hilly, I'm pretty sure that Parker will not consider it as a flat stage.

No it was flat. It was twenty years ago though. It's not exactly a common occurance. There's been 150 flat stages since then

When was the last time you looked at flat stage profile and thought there might be some GC action (excepting late climbs and crosswinds). Because that's the point.

 

[MarkvW]

Now go look up the meaning for synonym.

Evidence and proof are not the same. They are similar. But not the same.

One is a harder, irrefutable version of the other.

False.

Proof is the pile of evidence that you gather together and consider to establish a proposition. Proof is either sufficient or insufficient (beauty is often in the eye of the beholder). Evidence is either considered or ignored.

Evidence can be defined as two things: (1) The stuff you want to be considered as evidence (the smoking gun, the confession, the eyewitnesses testimony, etc.); and (2) what you want to prove with that stuff (he ingested EPO, etc). In some proceedings (like court or arbitration) there are rules that define whether a certain piece of evidence shall be considered.

In other words, evidence, if not rejected, is a component of proof.

 

[thehog]

No it was flat. It was twenty years ago though. It's not exactly a common occurance.

Perhaps add in the 15 caveats you've made since making your claim that GC don't attack on the flat stages.

2km from the end of the flat stage doesn't count, 20 years ago doesn't count, attacking in the wind doesn't count, upping the pace doesn't count and is not attacking.

Anything else?

And no GC rider is going to attack on a flat stage (cobbles aside) and as long as you stay in the first third of the peloton with a couple of teammates splits shouldn't be a problem. Even on GC stages if the attack comes before the final climb there's plenty of time to react.

 

[Catwhoorg]

The 2014 Tour, with the Sheffield stage that Nibali won, is actually one of the best in recent years for that.

It could have been a snoozefest, a gift to the break of the day. However it wasn't raced like that. Was a very exciting stage IMHO. Not many hilly stages get really raced these days.

 

[Parker]

Perhaps add in the 15 caveats you've made since making your claim that GC don't attack on the flat stages.

2km from the end of the flat stage doesn't count, 20 years ago doesn't count, attacking in the wind doesn't count, upping the pace doesn't count and is not attacking.

Anything else?

Let's get back to the original quote that I disputed shall we, as you have distorted everything (as you have to).

A serious GC leader needs to make every split, know where his opponents are, when they are moving, when they're attacking, where they are on the parcours, where their domestiques are, how far until the next climb etc.

That's not true. They only have to pay anything close to that level of attention at GC danger points - which for a flat stage is a late climb or a crosswind - which are both easily identifiable far in advance.

On almost all flat stages, if there has not been a late crash, the GC riders will finish in the peloton regardless of their own personal form.

TWH's original point was that a GC rider really only has to distinguish himself from the other GC riders in a few sub hour periods - he said a dozen, I think it's less. And he's right.

 

[thehog]

I can't see the goalposts as they've been moved so far

 

[Parker]

I can't see the goalposts as they've been moved so far

Stop moving them then.