Stage 3 looks like the Vuelta stage where he beat Sagan. And it's even a bit harder. If he isn't tired from a long classics season, it's almost in the bag.
And if he can pull off a great ITT, he might be in pink after stage 3. The San Luca TT is perfect for him. Short, explosive and with a nice murito at the end.
It all depends on how much time Dumoulin will gain the on the rest. Valverde could become 4th or something and still loose 20 seconds+ to Dumo. :lol: