Team strategies for Friday?

[Anonymous]

i actually think lance and ac will sit there happily in with cadel, sastre and the rest of them...

Kloden and Levi sent up the road on the attack.. cos if those two attack, what the hell do sastre, baby schleck, and the rest of them do.. its not a full on attack from the big two, but they cant ignore it.. and when they are done with chasing those two, then AC and LA can have a pop..

Although going by AC's recent tactical nouse he will probably be in the wrong group wondering where everybody is..

 

[karlboss]

In crisis comes opportunity

Astana obviously has the cards to play. Their strategy must be ride tempo and launch on the final climbs for uphill finishes, and ride tempo uphill and reel breakaways in to the finish on stages without an uphill finish. To counter this, I'd say A schleck should folllow and be launched and anyone else who fanices they can win the uphills...I can't think of anyone else though, sastre?. The opportunity for anyone else comes in all or nothing get 5 minutes in one day and then hang on.
Astana needs to be exposed by top 20 riders attacking from a long way out uphills. Not only force them to ride tempo, but to chase hard. Then maybe just maybe a crack will appear and can one day be exploited.
The easy way to counter this is for astana to always put someone in these breaks.
Friday is a day for these type of guys to limit losses. Almost all teams have at least one chance. They just need to roll the dice.

 

[Publicus]

i actually think lance and ac will sit there happily in with cadel, sastre and the rest of them...

Kloden and Levi sent up the road on the attack.. cos if those two attack, what the hell do sastre, baby schleck, and the rest of them do.. its not a full on attack from the big two, but they cant ignore it.. and when they are done with chasing those two, then AC and LA can have a pop..

Although going by AC's recent tactical nouse he will probably be in the wrong group wondering where everybody is..

Gets caught out one day (along with all of the other GC contenders) and he can't catch a break around here I noted in the other thread, he wasn't caught out today. You may have seen [insert Khazah] in the second group, but AC was riding Lance's wheel all day long (imagine that )

 

[Publicus]

Astana obviously has the cards to play. Their strategy must be ride tempo and launch on the final climbs for uphill finishes, and ride tempo uphill and reel breakaways in to the finish on stages without an uphill finish. To counter this, I'd say A schleck should folllow and be launched and anyone else who fanices they can win the uphills...I can't think of anyone else though, sastre?. The opportunity for anyone else comes in all or nothing get 5 minutes in one day and then hang on.
Astana needs to be exposed by top 20 riders attacking from a long way out uphills. Not only force them to ride tempo, but to chase hard. Then maybe just maybe a crack will appear and can one day be exploited.
The easy way to counter this is for astana to always put someone in these breaks.
Friday is a day for these type of guys to limit losses. Almost all teams have at least one chance. They just need to roll the dice.

Attack early so AC doesn't have a chance to eat/recuperate.

 

[egtalbot]

hmm

forgetting the issue of what Lance (or levi or Klodi) is capable of doing relative to Contador, it strikes me that the only hard and fast rule for Astana on friday is that if one of the big four gets in front, the other three shouldn't drag contenders up to him. Aside from that, any one of them could make a move, and if they put one or more of the other three in difficulty, so what? Unless they are trying at this early date to protect multiple podium positions at the possible expense of winning (and I can't imagine they are), I have to think that no one will be faulted for leaving the others behind.

Most likely scenario in my mind is they wait for attacks from someone else - if none happen, then perhaps one of them goes late, most likely Contador. Only if the talk of team dissension is really accurate - and who really knows - could I see it playing out any other way.

 

[karlboss]

i actually think lance and ac will sit there happily in with cadel, sastre and the rest of them...

Kloden and Levi sent up the road on the attack.. cos if those two attack, what the hell do sastre, baby schleck, and the rest of them do.. its not a full on attack from the big two, but they cant ignore it.. and when they are done with chasing those two, then AC and LA can have a pop..

Although going by AC's recent tactical nouse he will probably be in the wrong group wondering where everybody is..

I think this tactic would annoy LA and AC something fierce, AC more so than LA, I think LA would give up a tour for LL, but AC being told to watch his tour ride away up the road?
For friday this might work, but i think the pace will be too high, another team should keep it high until the final climb. Other days Try to put someone with LL and AK and back yourself to be stronger later.

So many options, i actually like that the tour is going this way, but if guys start considering themselves defeated it could be the most boring tour in history. Put pressure on Astana and see what happens.

 

[frizzlefry]

Most likely scenario in my mind is they wait for attacks from someone else - if none happen, then perhaps one of them goes late, most likely Contador. Only if the talk of team dissension is really accurate - and who really knows - could I see it playing out any other way.

I think its safe to say Evans wont attack.

 

[Anonymous]

I think this tactic would annoy LA and AC something fierce, AC more so than LA, I think LA would give up a tour for LL, but AC being told to watch his tour ride away up the road?
For friday this might work, but i think the pace will be too high, another team should keep it high until the final climb. Other days Try to put someone with LL and AK and back yourself to be stronger later.

So many options, i actually like that the tour is going this way, but if guys start considering themselves defeated it could be the most boring tour in history. Put pressure on Astana and see what happens.

I dont think it would be a tour winning attack, its the first day in the hills so it wouldnt bother lance or AC, but it would give the other contenders a complete dillema.. stick with the tour favourites, or watch kloden or Levi go down the road.. far less predicatble that watching AC and LA.. I think a kloden attack would throw the cat among the pigeons big time..

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Wow this is nuts to think about and I can't wait to see how it unfolds. With other GC contenders 2+ minutes down they are going to have to take, even if only seconds, here and there any chance they get. Let's not forget that Cadel, although unsuccesfully, was attacking in Dauphine so he may have a dig or two in him. Like another poster said he doesn't have much to loose at this point. His team is weak so he will be isolated though.

At least Saxo has some cards to play and can make things interesting.

Sastre may go for a hail mary and go from the base. In this case, I don't think he can wait until the last week. Although a lot can happen between now and then and maybe it is better to bide his time and just finish with the leader or lead group.

I fear the usual though of the Astana train riding hard tempo and dumping their leaders into a favorable position to win. It seems to work everytime but I would like something a bit more interesting.

Maybe Moncoutie from a way out.

No one has mention Garmin. They could get Hedjedal in an early break to help VDV up the slopes.

I also see Columbia showing their hand with Hincapie, Martin, and Kirchen.

A lot will depend on what happens on tomorrows stage too - who has to work hard, whos in breaks etc.

 

[Cobblestones]

i actually think lance and ac will sit there happily in with cadel, sastre and the rest of them...

Kloden and Levi sent up the road on the attack.. cos if those two attack, what the hell do sastre, baby schleck, and the rest of them do.. its not a full on attack from the big two, but they cant ignore it.. and when they are done with chasing those two, then AC and LA can have a pop..

Although going by AC's recent tactical nouse he will probably be in the wrong group wondering where everybody is..

Of course that presupposes that LL can attack. Kloden would be a good bet. Now, from an AC POV, this would be a risky strategy. If no one chases and, say, Kloden survives, he'd be faced with 2 teammates in front (assuming that LA doesn't blow, which I think is a distinct possibility). Ok, so let's say AC will end up with Kloden in front of him after Friday. What then? Same problem (actually worse, because at that time he's someone in front who has demonstrated climbing prowess).

Nah, too risky. Calls will be made, a Caisse rider (likely Sanchez) will attack early forcing a response from AC, which is a much safer strategy for the overall (seen from a pure AC POV).

I've never thought much of the tactics to send one rider ahead to serve as a stepping stone. You send one ahead to win. A rider who can't win, will become a stepping stone, but is usually too spent to help anybody much. Last time we saw that happen was Popo's escape in the Giro. Did he help much in the end? No, because he was absolutely clobbered (as was Cunego).

 

[CrossClimber]

I bet Romain Feillu for tomorrow

 

[Kazistuta]

This will be a stage win for Pellizotti, if not one from an early break. I can see the Italian dude attack early on Arcalis and going the whole way solo, because the rest knows it's not steep enough to make a difference.

Let's say it's down to a sprint between the best climbers - who will win, then?

My best guess is Armstrong himself, Menchov (would be great for morale) or Kirchen/Nibali (I'm very unsure of KK's form, but I'm equally unsure of Nibali's mountain legs)

 

[karlboss]

I dont think it would be a tour winning attack, its the first day in the hills so it wouldnt bother lance or AC, but it would give the other contenders a complete dillema.. stick with the tour favourites, or watch kloden or Levi go down the road.. far less predicatble that watching AC and LA.. I think a kloden attack would throw the cat among the pigeons big time..

The trick will be if one of those two go, who responds, if everyone does then LA and AC must and it is ineffective, but if only one or 2 do, then its game on.

I'm happy as long as someone tries something.

 

[ridelikethewind]

I think that Liquigas and Saxo Bank will attack. They have enough strength to attack hard and put Armstrong out of the race and also to split Astana as any Astana rider falling back to help Armstrong will also be out of the race.

 

[Anonymous]

I think that Liquigas and Saxo Bank will attack. They have enough strength to attack hard and put Armstrong out of the race and also to split Astana as any Astana rider falling back to help Armstrong will also be out of the race.

thats what poppy is for..

 

[Anonymous]

I think that Liquigas and Saxo Bank will attack. They have enough strength to attack hard and put Armstrong out of the race and also to split Astana as any Astana rider falling back to help Armstrong will also be out of the race.

I don't think HWMNBN will win, but I think he is much stronger than you are giving him credit for.

 

[Publicus]

Well here's Wiggins' prediction:

Friday's first summit finish will provide an indication, he added. "It's going to be a tough one. I think the ****'s going to go down with Astana. I think Contador is going to rip it to bits, to be honest. After that first mountain stage it might settle down a bit and follow more of a pattern."

 

[ilillillli]

Well here's Wiggins' prediction:

he might be right, but to be fair, Wiggins also supposed that he might finish in the top 10 of the GC this year. color me skeptical.

 

[Publicus]

he might be right, but to be fair, Wiggins also supposed that he might finish in the top 10 of the GC this year. color me skeptical.

LOL. Good point.

 

[mr. tibbs]

I'm loving all the thoughts about Kloden going up the road to stir things up, but--of all the four Astana big guys--he's the least likely to attack. Kloden is a worker, through and through, and he will be used as the engine of the lead group. So will Popo, Leipheimer, and Zubeldia, for that matter.

Astana will line it out on the climbs and try to keep the pace high. They're in a perfect position right now, and will probably just try to limit any possible attacks with their significant depth until the final week.

The attacks will come from: Pellizotti (sp?), Moncoutie (this one might stick), Sastre, a very frustrated Menchov, and Andy Schleck. That last one is the most dangerous to the Astana train, but everyone else will probably be neutralized.

Best case scenario for Astana (which probably contains the eventual champion) is if The Brothers Schleck attack out of the Kloden/Leipheimer-led group and draw out all the favorites, forcing Contador to respond. If he is taken off his tether, he will gain time on all the other Astanas, further distance most of his competition, claim yellow, and put this horse**** about "two leaders" to bed. After that, Astana can go about mechanically winning the Tour.

 

[Parrot23]

Contador would have to hope for someone to attack so he can counter and thereby leave LA (and LL and possibly Kloden) in the dust. Maybe he'll call Valverde who can fix something with Caisse. They still owe him one.

+1. Yes, agree, this is his best strategy to exert dominance over his team: to counter off someone else's attack.

He's in trouble if Lance goes for first dibs/first counter (a la Sastre at bottom of Alpe d'Huez). Then has to respect "rules" and not attack Lance.

Lance would be very smart to go for first dibs (early counter-attack), but risks blowing up if it's too early and sets off a feeding frenzy by desperate other teams.

Maybe an Alberto/Lance game of first dibs opens up room for some errors (going too early after a premature attack) for other teams. Just PERHAPS, LOL, . One scenario for how Astana could unravel just a little.

 

[Parrot23]

Astana needs to be exposed by top 20 riders attacking from a long way out uphills.

Agree.

Hoping for an A. Schleck move like at Liege-Bastogne-Liege from quite far out. Immensely talented; got to use his talent.

Nothing to gain by playing conservative here, as long as he remembers to eat (re last year's Tour mistake).

 

[dadoorsron]

Tactics for Firdays mountian top finish will be the same as usual for a Johan buryneel team. Astana will control tempo at the front of the race. As soon as the pavement starts to move upwards the tempo will be increased. The Pretenders will fall and the real GC leaders will be there. Now will there be any attacks? Well, in 2004 and 2005 GC contenders attacked armstrongs team because the tempo riding his team put in usually put everyone in the red or near it. I think this will be the same tactic and Astana will control the pace of the race and will only let non GC contenders off the front. It will be a day for the Polka dot hunters not the GC men.

The mountian stages in this tour will not be like years past. It will be a Lance Armstrong controlled pace. IF he is weak he will drop with a support rider. Then Contador and his pace makers will stay at the front.

 

[dadoorsron]

Agree.

Hoping for an A. Schleck move like at Liege-Bastogne-Liege from quite far out. Immensely talented; got to use his talent.

Nothing to gain by playing conservative here, as long as he remembers to eat (re last year's Tour mistake).

Team Astana will not let that happen. He would be caught quickly.

 

[Parrot23]

Calls will be made, a Caisse rider (likely Sanchez) will attack early forcing a response from AC, which is a much safer strategy for the overall (seen from a pure AC POV).

Hope so, that the Spanish help him.