Team strategies for Friday?

[Cobber]

The only way I can see a different scenario developing, is if LA goes backwards. Then you will see a split developing.

This is exactly what I was thinking. Everyone is saying that Astana winning is a done deal, but they are also assuming that both LA and AC are very strong. We haven't seen LA climb since the Giro, where he looked pretty bad. If he looks in trouble, there will be attacks and AC could become isolated. I can't wait to see the stage tomorrow. There should be loads of action!

 

[Publicus]

Just picked this comment from Lance off of the Astana website regarding tomorrow:

Continuing with comments about the plan for Astana Cycling Team: "The team strategy is up to Johan. I think we are in a position that we can wait. We'll watch Carlos, (Cadel) Evans, the Schleck brothers...I know also that Alberto is ready to go. If he goes and nobody can hang with him, then I'll stay with the other leaders. That's the way it will be. But I'll try to show up tomorrow, try to do my best to get to the top as quick as I can. We'll see."

 

[jaylew]

I don't see Astana attacking tomorrow unless it's a counter off of another, strong attack. They don't need to, they've got 2nd through 5th places and tomorrows climbing is not so severe - perfect uphill 'train' territory.

I do wonder if some of the GC candidates might not be given a little leeway due to the how far back they are. Worst case scenario would be Evans and F Schleck or the like going up the road and Astana riding tempo as a team behind, letting them sit 20-30 secs up the road, easily holding their 2-5 positions and slipping Lance into yellow - boring.

What we need is a blistering attack from a combination of guys, (say Kreuz and the Schlecklet get together, for example), that forces everyone to dig super deep so we can see who really has the legs this year. Then if say, two of the Astana 4 make the cut, they are free to go on the attack themselves.

As long as the situation involves guys keeping it steady or holding back due to unwritten rules, the situation at Astana remains cloudy. We need a situation that calls everyone out and forces them to go 100%.

 

[jaylew]

Let's say it's down to a sprint between the best climbers - who will win, then?

My best guess is Armstrong himself, Menchov (would be great for morale) or Kirchen/Nibali (I'm very unsure of KK's form, but I'm equally unsure of Nibali's mountain legs)

If he's there, Kirchen most certainly. If not, Evans or Menchov(if he can somehow keep it together).

 

[Parrot23]

What we need is a blistering attack from a combination of guys, (say Kreuz and the Schlecklet get together, for example), that forces everyone to dig super deep so we can see who really has the legs this year.

I'm interested to see if Lance or Alberto can be prompted to counter and against whom. There's a possible first dibs competition here for Astana leadership (re the problem of unwritten rules then follows; either of them can't then attack for the lead, so the one who gets it first has the edge). Maybe this could force some errors within Astana.

If neither go, I could see a Kloeden in yellow (somewhat neutral figure maybe). But whether Astana wants yellow yet may be doubtful.

Here's to hoping Kreuz and Schlecklet and a couple of others eat their Wheaties tonight, watch some Superman re-runs, and start reciting, "Yes, we can".

 

[jaylew]

I'm interested to see if Lance or Alberto can be prompted to counter and against whom. There's a possible first dibs competition here for Astana leadership (re the problem of unwritten rules then follows; either of them can't then attack for the lead, so the one who gets it first has the edge). Maybe this could force some errors within Astana.

If neither go, I could see a Kloeden in yellow (somewhat neutral figure maybe). But whether Astana wants yellow yet may be doubtful.

Here's to hoping Kreuz and Schlecklet and a couple of others eat their Wheaties tonight, watch some Superman re-runs, and start reciting, "Yes, we can".

If there is a good, hard attack by more than one rider I don't think all the Astana guys will be able to go with it, so things would start to sort themselves out, which is what I'm hoping. I could be proved wrong, but I really don't see LA being able to counter from such an attack, anyway. I just haven't seen any evidence that he is able to climb with the top few guys.

I just realized I won't be able to watch the stage live so, I'll be avoiding all media outlets until I can watch the Versus replay later in the day.

 

[Bala Verde]

As said before, we're in in Spain, and there are only three mountain top finishes, including a tough TT just before the end.

Therefore I believe the stage has Sastre written all over it. Spain, and 1/3 possibility to gain time on others. He'll start stepping it up almost at the base of the climb, and try and go full throttle till the finish. He can do it starting out so far and not do himself in for the remainder of the Tdf, because Monday is a rest day and Sunday is a ride that has escape written over it. Contador and Schleck (another one who needs to make up time given his TT) will follow. Cadel... I don't know if he can counter this type of mountain abuse. So the 3 might even work together because they can put time in on Evans...

The rest, Vandevelde, Efimkin, Kreuziger, Nibali, Schleck, Kirchen, Rogers(?), LL Sanchez (he'll take a descent somewhere to win time) I am afraid they'll have to try and limit their losses...

The stage might start with an escape, but Moncoutie (there are other stages to make much bigger KoM points), I don't know, perhaps Hivert SKL and some Euskatel boy (Igor or Mikel who is their captain? He'll wait for the climb to attack), I am even thinking of Pelli, but near the base of the climb it's my estimation, it'll give fireworks between the ones that want yellow in Paris.

or at least, I hope

 

[gjdavis60]

It's still early in the tour and Astana already has some time over the other teams' riders. I say they set a brisk tempo, but otherwise play defense and simply mark any threats on the climbs. After all, if Astana was to attack and open the gaps even wider, there would be even less incentive for rivals to ride cautiously, which would invite even more risky attacks that Astana would have to cover. As long as there is a chance that their fortunes could reverse, Evans, Sastre and the Schlecks should not take huge risks this early in the tour, imo. Look for an elite group marking each other up the final climb, and maybe a quick attack at the very end to pick up a few seconds. But I don't see anything heroic coming from any of the contenders tomorrow unless an unexpected opportunity appears. Could be a day for the polka-dot aspirants.

Or maybe Contador goes off, puts 5 minutes into everyone, and they all shake hands and go home early. Who knows?

 

[colwildcat]

My guess is a punishing pace that strips the field down to a select group at the base of the final climb. There's a lot of time to be made up, but I think it's too early to put all your cards on the table. I think we have 6 or 7 that finish together (LA, AC, Schleck, Sastre, Menchov, mabe Evans and Leipheimer). They'll distance everyone else and whittle this down to the 4-5 guys who can win it and settle it on later mountains.

 

[Anonymous]

After watching today, I think the one rider being overlooked is Kloden (not by everyone, as some here have also pointed this out). Kloden was the Astana rider nearest the front in the last kick today. I have never seen him have a killer instinct, but he looks strong. Someone to watch is all.

 

[colwildcat]

After watching today, I think the one rider being overlooked is Kloden (not by everyone, as some here have also pointed this out). Kloden was the Astana rider nearest the front in the last kick today. I have never seen him have a killer instinct, but he looks strong. Someone to watch is all.

He and Leipheimer have been strong, but I think if there's anyone in the team that knows their place, it's these two guys. Kloden had his shot at winning this thing a few years back and couldn't get it done. Same with Levi. Levi had the benefit of Lance and others riding for him in California and elsewhere this year, so I honestly don't think he has any aspirations of his own. My instinct is that Kloden isn't there for himself either and knows his job is to punish the field and then let AC/LA battle it out. I think something would have to really fall apart on the team for these guys to come out as the leaders. There's too much riding on LA or AC winning.

 

[eleven]

i actually think lance and ac will sit there happily in with cadel, sastre and the rest of them...

Kloden and Levi sent up the road on the attack.. cos if those two attack, what the hell do sastre, baby schleck, and the rest of them do.. its not a full on attack from the big two, but they cant ignore it.. and when they are done with chasing those two, then AC and LA can have a pop..

Although going by AC's recent tactical nouse he will probably be in the wrong group wondering where everybody is..

That seems like a pretty damn good strategy. It relies on the pace being low enough for one or both of AK and LL to jump off the front, but it's a great idea.

 

[byu123]

That seems like a pretty damn good strategy. It relies on the pace being low enough for one or both of AK and LL to jump off the front, but it's a great idea.

Astana strategy per "that older guy":

“I think the others will have to attack before we do,” Armstrong said. “We’re in a position where we can wait and watch the others, Sastre, Evans, the Schlecks. I don’t know if we need to attack.”

http://www.velonews.com/article/94826/arcalis-will-answer-many-questions

Probably a smart but not exciting play. Let the others that need time lead out and then just ride wheels until the last few Kms. Let them burn the energy. Astana is in the drivers seat and they know it. Whether he has the legs or not is a big question but one question already answered is that the "old guy" clearly still knows how to ride smart.

 

[Jayarbie]

Astana strategy per "that older guy":

“I think the others will have to attack before we do,” Armstrong said. “We’re in a position where we can wait and watch the others, Sastre, Evans, the Schlecks. I don’t know if we need to attack.”

http://www.velonews.com/article/94826/arcalis-will-answer-many-questions

Probably a smart but not exciting play. Let the others that need time lead out and then just ride wheels until the last few Kms. Let them burn the energy. Astana is in the drivers seat and they know it. Whether he has the legs or not is a big question but one question already answered is that the "old guy" clearly still knows how to ride smart.

That's the 05 Lance speaking. But Contador is more like the 01 Lance, and he'll want to use the team to hammer the remaining peloton at the base of the first climb until only one or two remain and then explode up the road and ride home solo.

 

[Anonymous]

He and Leipheimer have been strong, but I think if there's anyone in the team that knows their place, it's these two guys. Kloden had his shot at winning this thing a few years back and couldn't get it done. Same with Levi. Levi had the benefit of Lance and others riding for him in California and elsewhere this year, so I honestly don't think he has any aspirations of his own. My instinct is that Kloden isn't there for himself either and knows his job is to punish the field and then let AC/LA battle it out. I think something would have to really fall apart on the team for these guys to come out as the leaders. There's too much riding on LA or AC winning.

All very true, and what I see to be the likeliest scenario is him being able to hang with all but the elite climbers. He certainly seems strong enough to be the guy who just destroys everyone but the elite climbers for the team. He looked comfortable today and it seems that he should be fresher than LL. I think LL is the first of the 4 OTB.

 

[byu123]

All very true, and what I see to be the likeliest scenario is him being able to hang with all but the elite climbers. He certainly seems strong enough to be the guy who just destroys everyone but the elite climbers for the team. He looked comfortable today and it seems that he should be fresher than LL. I think LL is the first of the 4 OTB.

I have to remember this moment . . .

When the sky opened . . . the clouds parted . . . a beam of light came down from the heavens . . . and shined upon TFF and he actually said something suggestive of a positive comment about "that old guy on Astana."

"I think LL is the first of the 4 OTB"

See all you non-believers miracles can happen . . . .

 

[Anonymous]

I have to remember this moment . . .

When the sky opened . . . the clouds parted . . . a beam of light came down from the heavens . . . and shined upon TFF and he actually said something suggestive of a positive comment about "that old guy on Astana."

"I think LL is the first of the 4 OTB"

See all you non-believers miracles can happen . . . .

Well, I do expect Mr Armstrong to be 3rd of the 4 OTB. I have never doubted his ability to ride well. I just don't think he can win. That and I took a fist full of Xanex today....(not really)

 

[dadoorsron]

Just picked this comment from Lance off of the Astana website regarding tomorrow:

I think they are playing a tactical game that will allow astana to control the tempo to the finish.

 

[byu123]

I think they are playing a tactical game that will allow astana to control the tempo to the finish.

Either this picture from today's stage is distorted or "that old guy from Astana" looks as thin in the arms and legs as Contador. They guy definitely looks like he has lost some pounds . . . at least in the picture.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/382409/wiggins-tips-contador-to-win-tour-de-france.html

 

[byu123]

Well, I do expect Mr Armstrong to be 3rd of the 4 OTB.

Double stunned . . . so you expect Kloden to get dropped before "that older guy"???

Or . . . was that just a typo and you meant to say "2nd of the 4 OTB" . . . that must be it. As they say . . . lightening never strikes the same place twice . . . .

 

[Publicus]

Either this picture from today's stage is distorted or "that old guy from Astana" looks as thin in the arms and legs as Contador. They guy definitely looks like he has lost some pounds . . . at least in the picture.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/382409/wiggins-tips-contador-to-win-tour-de-france.html

It's probably more the angle than anything else. Lance has 20 pounds on Contador.

 

[dadoorsron]

The other teams gotta try and destroy Astana together, isolate Conta (and maybe LA) or they have no chance of winning.

Saxo have to ride a high tempo, then on the final slope i think some of the teams in trouble (cervelo, rabo and silence) have to work together and keep attacking astana. I think Saxo will do thier own thing though.
I dont think Sastre can wait to the last week. This year the competition is tougher, his team is weaker and he has more time to gain. He has to be full throttle on all 3 mountain top finishes if he is to win again.

Only was i see astana losing this tour is if the other teams are relentless with thier attacks and some how break thier elastic . I also think best way to destroy Conta will be saxobank (and other temas if there up to it) riding an insane tempo (Cancerella i think would have to play a big part in this, and would have to let go of any fantasy he has of getting a high finish). Conta might struggle with stamina.

I really don't think Astana will allow anyone to control the tempo on the last climb.The team that controls the pace controls the race. Astana has 4 riders that can pretty much seat on to any pace any team sets. If saxo bank was going to use Cancellara they would have to start using him on the Cat 1 climb and then the short decent and Cat 3 climb prior to the finish climb. I don't think Cancellara can go full gas up a cat one and 3 to be there for the finial climb. Now I'm not saying he wouldn't come back to the back in the valley before Arcalis started but, I don't see him staying to long at the front with a 8 and 7 percent grade in the first 4 k. He is a great rider but, I can't see him staying there that long at a high tempo.

Now looking back at previous tour I have mention this before teams have tried to seperate a Johan bruyneel lead team with attacks. Armstrong in 04 and 05 wasn't left alone often. 05 the team fell apart and Armstrong almost road a half a race by himself. Can he do that now is the question. Team strength has alot to do with who takes up the pace making. Astana will use there weapons to pace the contenders and it is up to someone to attack.

Like i have said before I don't think there will be alot of fireworks tomorrow. everyone will feel each other out and riders will probably test armstrong. If Astana sets a hard tempo and only a hand full of riders are left I don't think anyone will attack and Armstrong will wear yellow Friday.

 

[Anonymous]

Double stunned . . . so you expect Kloden to get dropped before "that older guy"???

Or . . . was that just a typo and you meant to say "2nd of the 4 OTB" . . . that must be it. As they say . . . lightening never strikes the same place twice . . . .

Again, I have never said he was not strong. I have just said he is not strong enough to win. Then again, I also don't think it is ludicrous that Kloden will outlast him.

I have expressed several times my problems with Mr Armstrong and none of is has to do with thinking he is not a gifted cyclist.

 

[dadoorsron]

It's probably more the angle than anything else. Lance has 20 pounds on Contador.

Lance, bob roll, and Carmicheal have all stated that lance is lighter then he was in any of his previous tour attempts.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Well, I do expect Mr Armstrong to be 3rd of the 4 OTB. I have never doubted his ability to ride well. I just don't think he can win. That and I took a fist full of Xanex today....(not really)

Unless the commisaire spots the Ninja rope LA has tied around Bertie waste, that is......

This might end in quite a few not OTB, if the last Vuelta up here is repeated.
Top group of 7 or 8 all finished with the same time.
Mind you, that was with Menchov and Evans marking man for man for man for man..

I hope for an attack fest, but fear the worst. The road is wide enough to run 3 trains side by side.

I'm pretty sure, if the Liquigas trio remain intact, they will "do a Giro".