Team strategies for Friday?

[Parrot23]

Team Astana will not let that happen. He would be caught quickly.

Yes, that's prob. right. Hard to see what to do with an Astana train. Ha, ha, ha. But then he should just go home now, LOL.

I can see him working with Contador to distance Lance. Contador has to see that he can use/launch off A. Schleck to exert dominance over Lance and his team once and for all.

A. Schleck must be thinking what it "cost" him to let Sastre go first on Alpe d'Huez last year (both Schlecks and Riis, I think, were stunned by the Sastre result). Lot of guys are going to be trigger happy, esp. Lance vs. Alberto in their possible first dibs competition for Astana leadership.

Intra-team battle too, not just between teams makes this doubly fascinating. The real battle is for team leadership within Astana. (nb: Horner would have helped Lance immensely here; maybe Johan knew, LOL!)

Let the games begin....Astana processions are boring.

 

[slowoldman]

I think Astana/Saxo will ride temp to the bottom and Contador will attack first, making the other contenders respond. Armstrong, Leipheimer and Kloden will ride with the chase to eventually launch Armstrong to Contador. IF they bring Contador back, Armstrong will counter and Leipheimer and Kloden will be there to help Contador cover chases or launch a Contador counter. Contador will ride to Lance. They will finish together with the target of getting Lance in Yellow for now but still having setup Contador for the eventual win. If Contador ends up winning then Astana (Contador) still has Yellow ahead of schedule. That's how I see Friday...

 

[Snake8]

Never really understood the Schleck thing. What is the dif between a Schleck and a Kreuziger, not much, yet Shleck(s) are presumed to be contenders? You'll see little to nothing from Shclecks this TdF, imho.

 

[Shotstopper]

I think 198 km is probably where the GC guys shed the peloton. The question I have about the "set a steady, blistering pace" strategy for Astana is that when Discovery used to do it Armstrong had two or three climbers with him who would waste themselves for him in order to discourage attacks and wither away the rest of the field. Isn't Zubeldia the only climber here without any podium aspirations? I don't see leipheimer and Klodin sacrificing themselves for either Contador or Armstrong on Friday. The way I see it -- and I am probably wrong here, but -- the Astana guys will defend attacks from the climbers who are 1-3 minutes back and have to make up time (Sastre, Evans, Shleck, Vandevelde...etc.) until they have but a few kilometers to go then, and only then, will the Astana guys who have anything left make their moves. More than likely Contador will attack first since he is down 19 seconds and Lance will try to keep his wheel. Does this sound plausible? If they are going to sacrifice Zubeldia early on I would guess they will try to save him as much as possible during the long ride to the base of the climb to Arcalis.

 

[Parrot23]

Doubt Schlecks can contend for overall (re their TT'ing, LOL ), but key stages. Lot of competitive pride.

A. Schleck's Giro intro was super and he should easily have been tops on Alpe d'Huez last year if Sastre had not gone first. Also, a Lance or Alberto (or a Horner, what have you) have never take a Liege-Bastogne-Liege and prob. couldn't. Alberto just about says as much in current issue of ProCyling.

So Andy's got some arrows in his quiver.

 

[richwagmn]

Excellent point....the American forgets about national pride........I will be sentenced to two weeks of watching Fox News....

Nothing is worth that. DON"T DO IT.

 

[Anonymous]

Nothing is worth that. DON"T DO IT.

You think I dislike Mr Armstrong, you should hear what I think of Mr Hannity.

 

[slowoldman]

Doubt Schlecks can contend for overall (re their TT'ing, LOL ), but key stages. Lot of competitive pride.

....... Also, a Lance or Alberto (or a Horner, what have you) have never take a Liege-Bastogne-Liege and prob. couldn't.

I don't see either Schleck as a serious contender for the title right now based on their lack of TT skills.

Armstrong was 2nd in the 1996 LBL after winning Fleche earlier in the week. I think Armstrong could definitely have won LBL if he targeted it specifically.

 

[richwagmn]

Gets caught out one day (along with all of the other GC contenders) and he can't catch a break around here I noted in the other thread, he wasn't caught out today. You may have seen [insert Khazah] in the second group, but AC was riding Lance's wheel all day long (imagine that )

I honestly always thought it would be good for AC to have a mentor like LA. Just not sure that's this year but who knows?

 

[UTFan2]

Correct, but then he should just go home now, LOL.

I can see him working with Contador to distance Lance. Contador has to see that he can use/launch off A. Schleck to exert dominance over Lance and his team once and for all.

A. Schleck must be thinking what it "cost" him to let Sastre go first on Alpe d'Huez last year (both Schlecks and Riis, I think, were stunned by the Sastre result). Lot of guys are going to be trigger happy, esp. Lance vs. Alberto in their possible first dibs competition for Astana leadership.

Intra-team battle too, not just between teams makes this doubly fascinating. The real battle is for team leadership within Astana.

Let the games begin....Astana processions are boring.

hmmm - I am still not buying into the team leadership battle thing. I think most sports team, especially cycling, recogonize where they are most talented and where they are weak. And most teams will have hot-shot, young talent (that make the occassional rookie-type mistakes), combined with the seasoned veterans who have seen the young talent come and go. The difference in cycling is that there are individual winners v. an entire team winning (generally speaking). Who CAN win, who WILL win and who LEADS the team/team member to a win ....not always the same person. So, I think Lance is the de-facto leader. Alberto is the talent who has the best chance at winning over-all. And all of Astana is riding for .... ALL of Astana. And I think even if AC is the one who has the better day Friday.... he can have a bad day later and there are still others on the team that can pick up where he may be lacking on any given day. Same can be said for Lance. They will all be working for each other. And as they have been saying allllll along - the mountains will eventually spit out the ONE guy that WILL win this year. Is there really any doubt who most people think that person is? But, Astana is now in the situation where the entire peleton msut respect the moves of no less than FOUR of their riders.

I loved watching the stage last year when we got a glimpse at what Andy Schleck could do!!! I'd like to think he DIDN'T think it "cost" him to help Sastre cuz that is what Andy was suppose to do - he was riding in support of Sastre.

If ASchleck and Contador get in a situation where they are able to "launch" themsleves off each other or have the likes of brother Frank, Spartacus....Lance, Kloden, Levi or Popo......riding in support of THEM.....WOW - what fun to watch THAT!!

Oh and by the way - I stand firm in my assesment from the other day that I think that George is the Leader of the Peleton as a whole, so what will happen Friday......is whatever George allows to happen

 

[Parrot23]

Armstrong was 2nd in the 1996 LBL after winning Fleche earlier in the week. I think Armstrong could definitely have won LBL if he targeted it specifically.

Okay, my mistake. Thanks for info.

 

[richwagmn]

Let the games begin....Astana processions are boring.

Amen to that.

 

[Parrot23]

I loved watching the stage last year when we got a glimpse at what Andy Schleck could do!!! I'd like to think he DIDN'T think it "cost" him to help Sastre cuz that is what Andy was suppose to do - he was riding in support of Sastre.

I've read a lot of contradictory accounts of this. Partly why Sastre left Saxo. What I would like to see is the Sastre battle against Saxo. Looks like there is some fire there.

So if Andy goes up the road, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sastre take his wheel (riding maybe against Riis), LOL

 

[slowoldman]

Okay, my mistake. Thanks for info.

No worries, glad to help.

 

[auscyclefan94]

With the dominating ttt performance by Astana wouldn't you think with 4 out 5 riders in the top 5 make the leadership issue more difficult for them? It will be intersting to see if Lance works for Contador as Lance is ahead of him. I think the ttt has pretty much screwed up the race. I don't think anyone else other than AStana can win this race. This could make to be a very boring race as AStana could dominate. I personally think all GC riders need to gang up on Astana to beat them. Continual Attacks must happen. Because Cadel is too far back to win i would like to see Andy Schleck win the tour. Evans and Menchov are going to have to Attack from the bottom of the climb at Arcalsis if they want any chance at all get a good overall place in GC. GC boys need to isolate Conti then attack him as he won't be able to control everyone.

 

[BigBoat]

With the dominating ttt performance by Astana wouldn't you think with 4 out 5 riders in the top 5 make the leadership issue more difficult for them? It will be intersting to see if Lance works for Contador as Lance is ahead of him. I think the ttt has pretty much screwed up the race. I don't think anyone else other than AStana can win this race. This could make to be a very boring race as AStana could dominate... .

Yeah! B-O-R-I-N-G except for the race to win stages, which are fun to watch.

GC boys need to isolate Conti then attack him as he won't be able to control everyone

I agree, like in Paris Nice. Although part of me wonders if Contadoper's spectacular collapse wasnt faked at that point.

 

[Publicus]

Yeah! B-O-R-I-N-G except for the race to win stages, which are fun to watch.



I agree, like in Paris Nice. Although part of me wonders if Contadoper's spectacular collapse wasnt faked at that point.

Definitely wasn't faked. He just didn't eat enough. And had a really weak team around him (he was basically alone on the last climb).

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

The other teams gotta try and destroy Astana together, isolate Conta (and maybe LA) or they have no chance of winning.

Saxo have to ride a high tempo, then on the final slope i think some of the teams in trouble (cervelo, rabo and silence) have to work together and keep attacking astana. I think Saxo will do thier own thing though.
I dont think Sastre can wait to the last week. This year the competition is tougher, his team is weaker and he has more time to gain. He has to be full throttle on all 3 mountain top finishes if he is to win again.

Only was i see astana losing this tour is if the other teams are relentless with thier attacks and some how break thier elastic . I also think best way to destroy Conta will be saxobank (and other temas if there up to it) riding an insane tempo (Cancerella i think would have to play a big part in this, and would have to let go of any fantasy he has of getting a high finish). Conta might struggle with stamina.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

With the dominating ttt performance by Astana wouldn't you think with 4 out 5 riders in the top 5 make the leadership issue more difficult for them? It will be intersting to see if Lance works for Contador as Lance is ahead of him. I think the ttt has pretty much screwed up the race. I don't think anyone else other than AStana can win this race. This could make to be a very boring race as AStana could dominate. I personally think all GC riders need to gang up on Astana to beat them. Continual Attacks must happen. Because Cadel is too far back to win i would like to see Andy Schleck win the tour. Evans and Menchov are going to have to Attack from the bottom of the climb at Arcalsis if they want any chance at all get a good overall place in GC. GC boys need to isolate Conti then attack him as he won't be able to control everyone.

i think you are very wrong, seems like this year everyone has to attack unlike previous years where the uphill slopes to a finsih was dominated by shadow boxing. Astana probably will win the tour, but i think were gonna see some fireworks on the road to thier victory.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I've never ridden it, but the interesting part to me is the fact that the last 68K are uphill pretty steady, at least from the profile.

What the ASO have given us, is effectively an Astana/Saxo "killing field".
Beaucoup de kilometres of endless drag, on which to set a tempo so severe, that all but the strongest will be culled.
Friday will be anything but pretty. Attacks will be few and fruitless.
I cannot see Astana throwing Levi or Kloden up the road, just to get picked up later.
They will be holding the line, waiting their turn to twist the knife still further.

The only way I can see a different scenario developing, is if LA goes backwards. Then you will see a split developing.

 

[phillop]

i think the dark horse is zubeldia, he should be the one to go for the long bomb and force the other teams to chase, hes probly a stronger climber than LL and AK, so many strong riders will be interesting whos drawn what straws, whos the work horses who are protected and who at least has the fredom to attack

 

[mr. tibbs]

i think you are very wrong, seems like this year everyone has to attack unlike previous years where the uphill slopes to a finsih was dominated by shadow boxing. Astana probably will win the tour, but i think were gonna see some fireworks on the road to thier victory.

But the reason they all have to attack is b/c they lost so much time in the TTT. So they have to somehow make up a huge deficit on one of the best climbers in the world who will be supported by three or four of the best climbers in the world--all the while knowing that they will still lose some time to him in the ITT (Sastre, Schleck) or are so far down that there is no way they can make it up in the mountains (Menchov, Evans).

And the only attacks we'll see from Astana tomorrow will be if Andy Schleck fires and gives Contador an excuse to leave the group and bridge up, dropping the other Astanas. Other than that, I don't think even the venerable Sastre can outclimb the Astana train, and Astana is in control of this race, so they won't waste any effort (unless Armstrong thinks he can add time on Contador).

 

[fpcyclingn]

I think the big time losses that the other teams suffered in the TTT is going to amp up the action that goes down during this stage. The other teams can't afford to wait until the last week.

But I wouldn't read too far into the results of this stage. Many days left, more mountain top finishes, and lots of descents. Things happen.

 

[Jayarbie]

Astana is a Bruyneel team with the top favorite (Contador). They will control the tempo until the base of the final climb and then put down the hammer on the rest of the peloton with Popo > Zubeldia > Levi > Kloden. By the time Kloden is spent, there will be only 2 or 3 guys tops with with Contador and Armstrong (both Schlecks & Sastre would make the race the most interesting...). From there, I believe they will have Armstrong attack first to soften up the other guys and then launch Contador. Contador will win by a minute or more and take yellow. Only AC and LA will be riding for their own GC place on Astana. That is Astana's strategy.

I believe that Saxo Bank will try to follow Astana and conserve energy now to try to really attack them later on (i.e. Ventoux). If Andy Schleck has Contador isolated late in the race and feels like he has good legs, he may have a go to take some time at the summit, but that is probably the extent of their attacking plans for Friday. I think they probably believe it is a good thing for Astana to take the MJ tomorrow. They know Astana is the strongest team, and they need Astana to wear down some by having to control the race for the next two weeks until Ventoux.

The other teams will have no choice but to follow and hope their strong men can keep up. Several pretenders will fall off the pace early and drop out of contention. I think the primary candidate for this is Menchov. I believe he will be out of the Tour by Sunday. It's been a terrible Tour for Rabo and Monchov has his Giro victory to celebrate for the year. I can't imagine his motivation is too high right now.

I'd guess the leading candidates for the Jaja/Virenque polka dot breakaway this year are Moreau or Arroyo. They are both far enough down that they should be allowed to go.

 

[Cobber]

Perhaps I can pardon you. Fox News is cruel and unusual punishment.

I think they use the term "enhanced interrogation"