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[bajbar]

Van Aert couldn´t train during the last weeks, so there´s a big question about his tour form. Bad news for Roglic..

Van Aert nach Blinddarmentzündung noch nicht zurück in Top-Form | radsport-news.com

www.radsport-news.com

He has been training for quite a while now (a month almost)... that is basically old news. All one has to do is check Strava to see that. Sure, he might not be in peak shape in the first week, but that is not the same as not being able to train two weeks before the Tour.

 

[Leinster]

TDF team

It looks like a strong team, but like I said on another thread the other day, other than Roglic and WvA, who’ve been MIA since the Ardennes, nobody has really performed in the meantime. All other teams who will have a contender at the Tour have been winning races through multiple riders. I dunno if JV will try to run a train; if they do, I can see it backfiring badly.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

It looks like a strong team, but like I said on another thread the other day, other than Roglic and WvA, who’ve been MIA since the Ardennes, nobody has really performed in the meantime. All other teams who will have a contender at the Tour have been winning races through multiple riders. I dunno if JV will try to run a train; if they do, I can see it backfiring badly.

I don't see any of those riders being a train for WvA, especially with the dangers involved in riding up front in the last 3K- except for Teunissen, so it will probably only be those two for the flat stages.

I'd love to see WvA go for green at the Tour, but I doubt he has the freedom to, with Roglic going for the win against a Pogacar that beat him last year, so it's probably all of JV for Roglic on most stages.

 

[KZD]

I really hope that if Jumbo fails to win the Tour with Roglic this year they give total freedom to Van Aert next year

 

[Sciatic]

It looks like a strong team, but like I said on another thread the other day, other than Roglic and WvA, who’ve been MIA since the Ardennes, nobody has really performed in the meantime. All other teams who will have a contender at the Tour have been winning races through multiple riders. I dunno if JV will try to run a train; if they do, I can see it backfiring badly.

It’s hard to make comparisons to Ineos because they have such a ridiculous top-heavy roster of GC leader types, but this Jumbo team seems really well suited to supporting one of the favorites in the race. They have two high-mtn climbing lieutenants in the two SKs, who are able on their top days (LS notwithstanding), able to be in the final elite group in key mountain stages in the 3rd week. Still not as good as Ineos there, but will be well focused on a single goal. Then they have a group of amazing powerhouses for flat stages and the lower slopes of climbs. Hopefully they are not looking to be a classic train, but can use that group to really put the hammer down if there is a chance to distance a rival or to recatch leaders after mechanicals/mishaps.
They don’t really have a “PlanB” guy (if Roglic crashes or gets I hired) like top teams often do, but hopefully their take on that is-/“who cares.” After the number of GC podiums the past two years, they should have a “win with your top guy or go home” approach.

 

[Leinster]

I don't see any of those riders being a train for WvA, especially with the dangers involved in riding up front in the last 3K- except for Teunissen, so it will probably only be those two for the flat stages.

I'd love to see WvA go for green at the Tour, but I doubt he has the freedom to, with Roglic going for the win against a Pogacar that beat him last year, so it's probably all of JV for Roglic on most stages.

I really meant a train in the mountains for Roglic. I think VanAert, if he still has his spring form, will be a vital part of that train, but I can’t see him being a protected rider at all.

And that was how they did it last year, iirc. Wout worked for the team for most of the stage, and if things looked pretty safe with 5km to go, he was then allowed freelance for a stage win.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

I really meant a train in the mountains for Roglic. I think VanAert, if he still has his spring form, will be a vital part of that train, but I can’t see him being a protected rider at all.

And that was how they did it last year, iirc. Wout worked for the team for most of the stage, and if things looked pretty safe with 5km to go, he was then allowed freelance for a stage win.

Ah, my bad

I dunno that I would call WvA "vital" in the mountains. - Sure, he climbs better than most, but it's probably mainly Kruijswijk, Kuss and Vingegaard, that are supposed to be there at the end of mountain stages.

WvA will, like Gesink, probably more fulfill the "Ganna job" on mountain stages, and be pulling before the "real climbers".

 

[YavorD]

Well, Jumbo are not as strong team as Ineos, I mean everyone outside of their tour team (bar maybe Bennett and Tom D with all the if's about him) would have a really hard time to make it in ANY Ineos GT squad.
But their team is well stacked. I mean, they have Martin for the flats, Van Aert, whos celling in the mountains are higher than many people. Gessink is alright for the early slopes and Vingegaard in his day, should be very good as well.
Then they Have SKx2, both of them are capable of staying in the last 10 riders on the mountains.


I'm interested of their approach if Roglic gains serious time on Pog in the first TT (say 45 seconds), not that I see it, but doesn't seem unlikely in an early TT. Will they build a train like last year, or they will attack to increase that lead because of the last TT and LPDF nightmare?

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think it's super realistic to defend 45s for 3 weeks. Basically you treat it as being equal, take time when you can, try not to lose when you can't, etc et etc.

Let's not forget last year Roglic wasn't able to drop Pogacar very often.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Well, Jumbo are not as strong team as Ineos, I mean everyone outside of their tour team (bar maybe Bennett and Tom D with all the if's about him) would have a really hard time to make it in ANY Ineos GT squad.
But their team is well stacked. I mean, they have Martin for the flats, Van Aert, whos celling in the mountains are higher than many people. Gessink is alright for the early slopes and Vingegaard in his day, should be very good as well.
Then they Have SKx2, both of them are capable of staying in the last 10 riders on the mountains.


I'm interested of their approach if Roglic gains serious time on Pog in the first TT (say 45 seconds), not that I see it, but doesn't seem unlikely in an early TT. Will they build a train like last year, or they will attack to increase that lead because of the last TT and LPDF nightmare?

Niermann has said that this year you won't end up loosing 2min in the final Itt, so I have my doubts about them changing their approach.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It will be interesting to see on how they will approach it. I am rather sure that there will be a bit of a twist involved. As for van Aert and the first week. I guess it depends. If van Aert would find himself in a situation to take some wins, sure, why not. If the whole team would need to invest much effort in achieving that. Then i am not all that sure it would make all that much sense. Ineos is strong as a team but the big question is how will their captain perform against other favourites. Regardless of that they will likely end up playing a role in GC, not just for Ineos. Keeping an eye on Pogačar will for sure be needed. Given the opportunity Pogačar will attack. In addition to that Roglič likely knows that if the distance to Pogačar is not kept around 2 minutes or more, that could represent a real issue.

 

[YavorD]

Niermann has said that this year you won't end up loosing 2min in the final Itt, so I have my doubts about them changing their approach.

In fact I think last year Rog lost that much because he totally cracked once Tadej overtook him. Not saying he would win or anything like that, but I thing he would've been around or in front Porte if he didn't know what Pogacar was doing.
Also, in a flat TT I don't see that big of a gap. If Giro last TT's are anything to go by, gaps between favorites are usually not massive.

 

[Red Rick]

No chance in hell Roglic loses 2 minutes in a flattish 31km ITT.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It's not just about ITT. Given the opportunity Roglič should likely go after that missing 2 minutes. I know easier said than done. But at least they will calculate this variable in their game plan this year. As realistically such calculation was never done for TDF 2020. That was just too far fetched to take it into account.

 

[Mayomaniac]

In fact I think last year Rog lost that much because he totally cracked once Tadej overtook him. Not saying he would win or anything like that, but I thing he would've been around or in front Porte if he didn't know what Pogacar was doing.
Also, in a flat TT I don't see that big of a gap. If Giro last TT's are anything to go by, gaps between favorites are usually not massive.

I agree on both points, I just don't see JV really changing their strategy.
The big missed opportunity for Roglic was probably the La Roche-sur-Foron stage right after the Col de la Loze stage, when it looked like he was clearly the strongest rider, yet he didn't really try to gain time.

 

[Netserk]

So how many bonus seconds will he gain in the opening weekend? I'm quite sure he'll top-3 stage 2, but the first stage may have too easy a finish.

 

[johnymax]

So how many bonus seconds will he gain in the opening weekend? I'm quite sure he'll top-3 stage 2, but the first stage may have too easy a finish.

Roglič? He can top3 in both and even win on Mur de Bretagne, but he can easily be outside the top 3 in both, too. Especially considering he'll probably lack race rhythm in the first couple of stages. And I can see at least Alaphilippe, MvdP, Pogačar (50-50), van Aert (depends on his recovery after the surgery) beating him. Then you also have riders like Martin, Valverde, Aranburu, Matthews, Colbrelli, Hirschi, maybe Laporte, Sagan if he finds his climbing legs, and more. All those guys should be in the mix.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

I think our first big clue to how JV will ride the tour, will be if/when Vingegaard and Kuss drop massive time early.

If they do that early, rather than hanging on in GC, I would think JV has a more aggressive strategy this year, planning to send lieutenants out in front from long range.

I think they may have realised, that halfway trying to keep Dumoulin and Kuss (and at first Bennett too) in the GC last year was a mistake, because once they hit the mountains, they didn't really have much freedom of movement.

 

[Sciatic]

I agree on both points, I just don't see JV really changing their strategy.
The big missed opportunity for Roglic was probably the La Roche-sur-Foron stage right after the Col de la Loze stage, when it looked like he was clearly the strongest rider, yet he didn't really try to gain time.

I think it’s more likely that Ineos’s overall team strength would force them to change their approach. At least in the 1st 2 weeks Ineos is more likely to have their train in charge in the mountains, which was a noticeable absence in last year’s tour.

 

[Pinot's goat]

I think our first big clue to how JV will ride the tour, will be if/when Vingegaard and Kuss drop massive time early.

If they do that early, rather than hanging on in GC, I would think JV has a more aggressive strategy this year, planning to send lieutenants out in front from long range.

I think they may have realised, that halfway trying to keep Dumoulin and Kuss (and at first Bennett too) in the GC last year was a mistake, because once they hit the mountains, they didn't really have much freedom of movement.

They didn't try to keep Bennett and Kuss in the GC last year. Dumoulin finished 7th in the end so they can't have realised halfway through it was a mistake plus they were unhappy with what Dumoulin did on Peyresourde and said he should have limited his losses instead of riding as a domestique.

 

[johnymax]

I think our first big clue to how JV will ride the tour, will be if/when Vingegaard and Kuss drop massive time early.

If they do that early, rather than hanging on in GC, I would think JV has a more aggressive strategy this year, planning to send lieutenants out in front from long range.

I think they may have realised, that halfway trying to keep Dumoulin and Kuss (and at first Bennett too) in the GC last year was a mistake, because once they hit the mountains, they didn't really have much freedom of movement.

Isn't having more riders up high in GC a good thing if the team wants to ride more aggressively?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Isn't having more riders up high in GC a good thing if the team wants to ride more aggressively?

Only if they have the necessarily level to be (considered) a GC threat.

Not the case for J-V at present. This is reflected on the betting sites.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Isn't having more riders up high in GC a good thing if the team wants to ride more aggressively?

That depends on the aggression you are looking for.

If you are looking to send people out front, to have your leader catch up, you need them to lose time.

If you want to attack with several people from the GC group, to force another team to work, you need people staying close in GC.

 

[bNator]

Ah, my bad

I dunno that I would call WvA "vital" in the mountains. - Sure, he climbs better than most, but it's probably mainly Kruijswijk, Kuss and Vingegaard, that are supposed to be there at the end of mountain stages.

WvA will, like Gesink, probably more fulfill the "Ganna job" on mountain stages, and be pulling before the "real climbers".

I don’t know - based on what I saw in Tirreno I was expecting WVA to be the better than everyone in TJV except Kuss in high mountains. There’s a question mark about his current form but if he is in good form then he could be the very last guy with Roglic this year.

Don’t forget he was the one that dropped Bernal and Quintana last year. Comparing him to Ganna is huge underestimation IMO. If he’s not in form though, he could be only Ganna level…

 

[Pinot's goat]

Don’t forget he was the one that dropped Bernal and Quintana last year.

They were both suffering badly from injuries, his climbing ability is most visible from coming 3rd on stage 18.