The 2012 CQ Ranking Manager Game

[Havetts]

Skippy thanks for the awesome posts!

 

[Tuarts]

Great, statistically I'm going to have a **** year this time around!

Oh and what everyone has said, great job with the analysis.

 

[Jancouver]

I used the R statistical software package. You have to solve an integer programming problem. I did it previously in September and gave some code in this post http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=681188&postcount=2847

Pretty cool, thanks!

 

[Jancouver]

Finally, the team for this year that maximizes the popularity score (it does just coincide with the 33 most popular riders - whereas last year there was some trade off between cost and popularity needed)

Name Pop Cost
BRESCHEL Matti 105 98
VELITS Peter 91 205
BOONEN Tom 76 502
POZZATO Filippo 75 301
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 73 190
ROGERS Michael 66 137
SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon 63 439
DAVIS Allan 62 118
RENSHAW Mark 62 286
SICARD Romain 59 0
DEVOLDER Stijn 55 145
KREUZIGER Roman 55 528
VANMARCKE Sep 52 128
PORTE Richie 50 261
LARSSON Gustav Erik 47 206
IGLINSKIY Maxim 45 77
MAJKA Rafal 45 57
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor 44 634
DEMARE Arnaud 44 148
PHINNEY Taylor 43 344
HAUSSLER Heinrich 42 496
KELDERMAN Wilco 41 134
LLOYD Matthew 40 0
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 40 60
TALANSKY Andrew 39 229
OFFREDO Yoann 37 295
BATTAGLIN Enrico 36 228
DURBRIDGE Luke 36 65
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben 35 81
VANENDERT Jelle 35 435
LANDA MEANA Mikel 34 63
MAASKANT Martijn 34 47
KROON Karsten 32 33
TOTAL 1693 6970

OK, so now tell us how many of these riders each of our team has. We can probably agree the team who got most of these names should get top placement right?

 

[Jancouver]

I used the R statistical software package. You have to solve an integer programming problem. I did it previously in September and gave some code in this post http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=681188&postcount=2847

So now I understand why Skibby is the current top placement team. His statistical software picked the ideal team based on 2010 to 2011 point loss. It will be cool to see if your software can beat cycling gurus on this forum

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

OK, so now tell us how many of these riders each of our team has. We can probably agree the team who got most of these names should get top placement right?

not really. collectively as a group we may have made poor picks.

I'm sure the winner will be a mixture of popular picks and less common picks.

aka me.

 

[Jancouver]

not really. collectively as a group we may have made poor picks.

I'm sure the winner will be a mixture of popular picks and less common picks.

aka me.

I meant something like top 5 if the history repeats. As mentioned above, last years most popular picks would give you 3rd place.

Same for Skibby, his calculation for his 2012 team is probably correct and the software picked the team based on some basic conditions but many other important (risk factor) conditions were not applied otherwise he would not have Nibali or any other expensive rider on his team....unless I'm wrong and he did pick his team manually

 

[greenedge]

Shortlist:
IMPEY Daryl

Glad that someone else felt the same way as me. I think Impey could be GEs' stage race contender ( of course not great but still )

 

[greenedge]

As the defending champion I was asked to do a breakdown of the thought process behind my team sort of like Hugo did with his team earlier in this thread.
So that's my team this year. I think it can be pretty good but you need a lot of luck to win this game an lightning rarely hits the same place twice.

Thx for doing this after my request.

The riders i regret most not including are Henao, Kruijswijk, Talansky, Turgot, Terpstra and K.Fernandez.
Henao because he might get more chances ( is on a WT team that means he gets good exposure at races ), Steve i would have got if there were not so many ITT kms' at the TDF. Even then i still expect him to go well at his season goal. Talansky is a good young prospect/ can time-trial. Turgot will get points at small French races/ might challenge more in some sprints. Terpstra might benefit from not having Gilbert at most of the Belgian races that are smaller. One win at one of those races will double his points. Fernandez is very talented. However i did not choose him because he might have limited opportunities ( by Supporting Farrar ). He will however be in good hands at Garmin.

 

[AntonioRossi]

Thx for doing this after my request.

The riders i regret most not including are Henao, Kruijswijk, Talansky, Turgot, Terpstra and K.Fernandez.
Henao because he might get more chances ( is on a WT team that means he gets good exposure at races ).

I purposely did not include Henao. I think there are too many gc guys for one week races/grand tours on team sky. Henao could go back for tour of utah or colorado challenge but I dont think he will improve that much this year.

 

[Eric8-A]

I purposely did not include Henao. I think there are too many gc guys for one week races/grand tours on team sky. Henao could go back for tour of utah or colorado challenge but I dont think he will improve that much this year.

One of the reasons why I chose not to add him to my team. That, and my fear that they'll use him to work for Cavendish.

 

[the asian]

I completely overlooked the Olympics.
How many CQ points for the top 3 in ITT and RR?

 

[Eric8-A]

TT:

250
150
120

RR:

400
240
200

The Olympics were somewhat of a strategy in choosing my team. Mainly for the TT.

 

[the asian]

TT:

250
150
120

RR:

400
240
200

The Olympics were somewhat of a strategy in choosing my team. Mainly for the TT.

Should have included Larsson. He has a good chance to podium and will be a good pick.
Hopefully Phinney can put in a good performance.
Farrar will also be handy. 2nd place in RR is not beyond him.

 

[Handbrake]

If anyone invested 5 points into Paul Odlin you would have a 600% return and be leading this years race as he won the NZ ITT but no one has him.

What about a 1 pointer in Sam Horgan. An 1800% return but no one has him!

At least someone has third place getter Jesse Sergent and that's Trotters aotearoa.

 

[Ferminal]

TT:

250
150
120

RR:

400
240
200

The Olympics were somewhat of a strategy in choosing my team. Mainly for the TT.

Not just the Olympics, the Giro has an additional TT this year, and the Tour has two more.

If anyone invested 5 points into Paul Odlin you would have a 600% return and be leading this years race as he won the NZ ITT but no one has him.

What about a 1 pointer in Sam Horgan. An 1800% return but no one has him!

At least someone has third place getter Jesse Sergent and that's Trotters aotearoa.

NZ Champs are NCT4 this year, TT winner only gets 12 points. Australia is also an NCT2, down from NCT1 (it's based on the previous year's country rankings).

 

[Eric8-A]

And to get them just so that you can only get points from there really ain't worth investing in.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Skibby, that's some excellent work indeed! Thanks! I'm working on some sort of "article" so I'll probably use some of your statistics if that's OK!

 

[Tuarts]

Glad that someone else felt the same way as me. I think Impey could be GEs' stage race contender ( of course not great but still )

Yeah I think going from a messed up season teamwise: PT/ProConti/Nothing to Conti/ProConti and now on a WorldTour team, he'll get the chances now to improve his score. Let's face it, he may be more of a sprinter but he's going to go over a speed bump a lot better than most in the squad. I omitted him more because I needed to trim down the squad and I had better prospects at that price, he was very much a "fan" pic, same with Clarke and Keukeliere.

 

[nobilis]

I have a simple suggestion for Hugo. Can you add a column in the spreadsheet with the final ranking of the teams last year. This way, we could see the evolution from last year and for instance how the top seeded will perform this year.

 

[Ferminal]

Skibby, that's some excellent work indeed! Thanks! I'm working on some sort of "article" so I'll probably use some of your statistics if that's OK!

Yeh, great work by Skibby, another interesting metric may be a "negativity index". Sum up the difference between 2010 and 2011 scores for each team, the team with the highest number is the most negative (picking those who failed in 2011).

 

[hrotha]

The Olympics? FFFFUUUUUU-

 

[AussieGoddess]

yeah - I regret not making room for cancellara

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

It's not like Cancellara will double his score from last year or anything. If he matches his best ever point total, which is unlikely as he's past his prime, it's still only a profit of 30 percent.

 

[will10]

It's not like Cancellara will double his score from last year or anything. If he matches his best ever point total, which is unlikely as he's past his prime, it's still only a profit of 30 percent.

+1 The last Olympic year, the only race he didn't perform where you might think he should've was at RVV (27th). He won Tirreno, MSR, 2nd at Roubaix, a load of ITTs and then 2nd and 1st at the Olympics RR &TT.

If he managed a repeat of that, then he'd perhaps be worth it at 1800-1850. Plus Flanders, plus perhaps the Worlds and he's up at 2000-2200, best case scenario.

I still think Fabian is a big risk. We'll see.