The 2012 CQ Ranking Manager Game

[The Hitch]

I like the use of the royal we.

I was joking

 

[theyoungest]

but will he go for those races? His ambition will be the races with the wrong competition. Well of course the season will answer these questions.

I don't think Renshaw is faster than Theo Bos, but Rabo will use him as their main sprinter in the Tour, Giro, Paris-Nice, and God knows where else. Meaning he'll always get the chance to ride the sprints. He got 2nd on the Champs once while leading out Cav, so I'm hoping for that kind of result a few times more.

 

[The Hitch]

I don't think Renshaw is faster than Theo Bos, but Rabo will use him as their main sprinter in the Tour, Giro, Paris-Nice, and God knows where else. Meaning he'll always get the chance to ride the sprints. He got 2nd on the Champs once while leading out Cav, so I'm hoping for that kind of result a few times more.

The Tour sprint into Brussels is a better indicator because he actually did a sprint, even if Farrar and Cav were out and Greipel, Goss werent there.

The Champs Elysee 2nd came about because of his awesomness as a leadout man, taking the corner early.

It might be a good idea for Rabo to get Renshaw to do what Marcatto does, with attacks like 500m from the end, epsecially on finishes with tight bends, which can win the race and as the others bring him back, matthews/bos, are good for the sprint.

 

[greenedge]

I'm a bit surprised these riders haven't been picked more times:

Juan Jose Haedo - 6 times
Antonio Santoro - 5 times
Daniele Ratto - 4 times
Sonny Colbrelli - 4 times

Did anyone consider these and why were they left out in the end?

Edit: Matteo Pelucchi - 7 times as well.

I wanted to pick Haedo, Santoro and Pelucchi but did not because i thought my ( really original ) team was ok. It turns out that it is not. I'm surprised that not many picked Nelson Oliveira. He's cheap and young. Though i did not pick him.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Don't feel too bad, I was too busy picking less talented talents also. Although I do have Santoro.

The Champs Elysee 2nd came about because of his awesomness as a leadout man, taking the corner early.

Also because of Hincapie's awesomeness. The whole team, really. Great sprint.

Now, Rabobank on the other hand...

 

[gustienordic]

I think that, because most of us hang out here a lot, read more or less the same news, analyses, go into long discussions, many have common riders and there is little variability between the different teams.

+1 agreed. There is a pretty general consensus on this form about the riders we like, dislike, etc. It would be interesting to see how many people looked at other forums like the people to watch in 2012 forums for ideas.

 

[skidmark]

Just know I expect a lot from you.

Well, I'll try to live up to my own massive hype (although I guess that's mostly up to the riders)

By the way, your justification for picking your team was my favourite of all of them so far. Hope it does well.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

i thought my ( really original ) team was ok. It turns out that it is not.

What's bad about it, though?

 

[Skibby the bush kangaroo]

Correlation between popularity of choices and team success

OK I worked out the same originality/popularity scores for the 2011 teams and compared with the final CQ points of each team. As expected, it is largely better to have a team composed of popular riders rather than only obscure picks:

The correlation is 0.61 so knowing the popularity of the team's picks explains 37% of the variation in the final score.

 

[gerundium]

OK I worked out the same originality/popularity scores for the 2011 teams and compared with the final CQ points of each team. As expected, it is largely better to have a team composed of popular riders rather than only obscure picks:

The correlation is 0.61 so knowing the popularity of the team's picks explains 37% of the variation in the final score.

looks like i'm screwed then

didn't expect anything less though.

 

[Handbrake]

One of my last changes (maybe mistakes) was removing Michael Rogers thinking he may have been tapped on the shoulder at Sky and been asked to ride for others in the team and won't get a chance to ride for himself too many times this year. Being Australian I thought I was being too loyal and having too many Aussies in the side as well.

The other two late changes were removing some popular picks namely Stybar who I had last year (not focusing enough on road) and Demare. Time will tell.

I had Boonen last year and hope he didn't save himself last year for 2012!

 

[The Hitch]

OK I worked out the same originality/popularity scores for the 2011 teams and compared with the final CQ points of each team. As expected, it is largely better to have a team composed of popular riders rather than only obscure picks:

The correlation is 0.61 so knowing the popularity of the team's picks explains 37% of the variation in the final score.

Your contributions are brilliant man.

You have the popularity scores for 2011 by the way?

 

[Skibby the bush kangaroo]

Your contributions are brilliant man.

You have the popularity scores for 2011 by the way?

Certainly do:

1 will10 68
2 sigsky 164
3 Team Sky Fans 206
4 Rocksteady 245
5 trotters aotearoa 266
6 microdose 292
7 Wiggins_fan 295
8 who dat 308
9 Jakob747 324
10 auto de fé 341
11 Libertine Seguros 361
12 whittashau 380
13 tgsgirl 402
14 Moncoutie 405
15 Passista 411
16 Erick 8-A 413
17 togo95 413
18 Spider1964 420
19 coppiman 423
20 Pabryan 424
21 Blues in the Bottle 428
22 Vonn Brinkman 441
23 hrotha 443
24 auscyclefan94 444
25 roundabout 445
26 Armchair Cyclist 452
27 Spare Tyre 453
28 Contre la montre 455
29 zapata 473
30 Jpettersen 494
31 jaylew 496
32 Moondance 500
33 EvansIsTheBest 503
34 henry olonga 518
35 Jiaying 518
36 luckyboy 518
37 Jancouver 530
38 Bicing 535
39 Mellow Velo 544
40 AntonioRossi 549
41 Jukebox 552
42 lancaster 563
43 Sydney21 569
44 nvpacchi 582
45 deValtos 587
46 Parrulo 589
47 Pcutter 609
48 Tuarts 609
49 Ferminal 610
50 Jan the Man 611
51 Object 613
52 jens_attacks 617
53 royalpig180 619
54 XlandaluzeX 619
55 The Cobra 621
56 mc_mountain 624
57 Waterloo Sunrise 636
58 al_pacino 647
59 kurtinsc 648
60 Kazistuta 650
61 Arnout 652
62 joy118118 653
63 LukeSchmid 660
64 sosososik 660
65 Barrus 664
66 Kevin Rudd's Hairdryer 675
67 sublimit 679
68 Timmy-loves-Rabo 689
69 ingsve 691
70 Sneekes 694
71 theyoungest 701
72 nobilis 703
73 Kvinto 720
74 AAC1983 723
75 Sasquatch 724
76 The Amateur 742
77 MADRAZO 745
78 Zaschrona 747
79 Kwibus 752
80 mortand 754
81 Hugo Koblet 755
82 The Hitch 768
83 skidmark 780
84 Squire 798
85 Bumeington 808
86 Handbrake 834
87 Ham-N-Eggs 843
88 Gotland 888

 

[roundabout]

I think I can see myself on the chart...

One thing though, I am curious how the chart would look for the first 27 teams that the rest of the entrants copied from last year

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hSEQxcnU1X3BuNkE&hl=en&authkey=CP3azfIP#gid=0

What do you know, the spreadsheet is still there

 

[The Hitch]

I think I can see myself on the chart...

One thing though, I am curious how the chart would look for the first 27 teams that the rest of the entrants copied from last year

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hSEQxcnU1X3BuNkE&hl=en&authkey=CP3azfIP#gid=0

What do you know, the spreadsheet is still there

Its more like 32. Me and 1 or 2 others arent in the sheet, but are in the full list made by Fermilan 2 hours later.

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=393566&postcount=251
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=393567&postcount=252
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=393568&postcount=253

Also, this

auscyclefan94
auto de fé
Barrus
bicing
Bumeington
Contre la montre
deValtos
Eric8-A
Ferminal
hrotha
Hugo Koblet
ingsve
Jan the Man
jens_attacks
Jukebox
kurtinsc
Kvinto
Libertine Seguros
Mellow Velo
Moncoutie
Moondance
nvpacchi
Pabryan
Parrulo
Rocksteady
roundabout
Spider1964
The Cobra
The Hitch
Togo95
Vonn Brinkman
whittashau
who dat

And auscyclefan94: don't worry, Morabito has been added to your list just not in the uploaded document yet.

The list is here: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...EwNjQtYTM4YmU3NmY2NjQ2&hl=en&authkey=CM-5gvgL

 

[skidmark]

Certainly do:
-----------------------------------------------
51 Object 613
52 jens_attacks 617
53 royalpig180 619
54 XlandaluzeX 619
55 The Cobra 621
56 mc_mountain 624
57 Waterloo Sunrise 636
58 al_pacino 647
59 kurtinsc 648
60 Kazistuta 650
61 Arnout 652
62 joy118118 653
63 LukeSchmid 660
64 sosososik 660
65 Barrus 664
66 Kevin Rudd's Hairdryer 675
67 sublimit 679
68 Timmy-loves-Rabo 689
69 ingsve 691
70 Sneekes 694
71 theyoungest 701
72 nobilis 703
73 Kvinto 720
74 AAC1983 723
75 Sasquatch 724
76 The Amateur 742
77 MADRAZO 745
78 Zaschrona 747
79 Kwibus 752
80 mortand 754
81 Hugo Koblet 755
82 The Hitch 768
83 skidmark 780
84 Squire 798
85 Bumeington 808
86 Handbrake 834
87 Ham-N-Eggs 843
88 Gotland 888

Well whadda ya know? Right up among the most popular again. Hitch, we're neighbours for 2 years in a row! Gotta agree with you that a) skibby's statistical analysis is awesome and b) even before seeing that, I was happy to have 'popular' riders. I get that it's nice to be 'original' and spot talent that nobody else spots, but there are alot of smart cycling fans here, so I feel no shame to have independently picked similar riders to others.

Thanks alot for the analysis.

 

[Jancouver]

Certainly do:

1 will10 68
2 sigsky 164
3 Team Sky Fans 206
4 Rocksteady 245
5 trotters aotearoa 266
6 microdose 292
7 Wiggins_fan 295
8 who dat 308
9 Jakob747 324
10 auto de fé 341
11 Libertine Seguros 361
12 whittashau 380
13 tgsgirl 402
14 Moncoutie 405
15 Passista 411
16 Erick 8-A 413
17 togo95 413
18 Spider1964 420
19 coppiman 423
20 Pabryan 424
21 Blues in the Bottle 428
22 Vonn Brinkman 441
23 hrotha 443
24 auscyclefan94 444
25 roundabout 445
26 Armchair Cyclist 452
27 Spare Tyre 453
28 Contre la montre 455
29 zapata 473
30 Jpettersen 494
31 jaylew 496
32 Moondance 500
33 EvansIsTheBest 503
34 henry olonga 518
35 Jiaying 518
36 luckyboy 518
37 Jancouver 530
38 Bicing 535
39 Mellow Velo 544
40 AntonioRossi 549
41 Jukebox 552
42 lancaster 563
43 Sydney21 569
44 nvpacchi 582
45 deValtos 587
46 Parrulo 589
47 Pcutter 609
48 Tuarts 609
49 Ferminal 610
50 Jan the Man 611
51 Object 613
52 jens_attacks 617
53 royalpig180 619
54 XlandaluzeX 619
55 The Cobra 621
56 mc_mountain 624
57 Waterloo Sunrise 636
58 al_pacino 647
59 kurtinsc 648
60 Kazistuta 650
61 Arnout 652
62 joy118118 653
63 LukeSchmid 660
64 sosososik 660
65 Barrus 664
66 Kevin Rudd's Hairdryer 675
67 sublimit 679
68 Timmy-loves-Rabo 689
69 ingsve 691
70 Sneekes 694
71 theyoungest 701
72 nobilis 703
73 Kvinto 720
74 AAC1983 723
75 Sasquatch 724
76 The Amateur 742
77 MADRAZO 745
78 Zaschrona 747
79 Kwibus 752
80 mortand 754
81 Hugo Koblet 755
82 The Hitch 768
83 skidmark 780
84 Squire 798
85 Bumeington 808
86 Handbrake 834
87 Ham-N-Eggs 843
88 Gotland 888

This is great. If you are up for a challenge I would like to see a calculation of the "Ideal" team from 2011. What 25-33 names would be the best to pick and the final score. What would be the ideal correlation between percentage gain and points gain?

 

[gerundium]

This is great. If you are up for a challenge I would like to see a calculation of the "Ideal" team from 2011. What 25-33 names would be the best to pick and the final score. What would be the ideal correlation between percentage gain and points gain?

the best team has the best percentage gain by default....

creating a team of as close as possible to 7500 based solely on percentage gained for selecting riders will net the best scoring fictional team. what is interesting would be to see how close we actually came to this ideal team in terms of total score.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

The Tour sprint into Brussels is a better indicator because he actually did a sprint, even if Farrar and Cav were out and Greipel, Goss werent there.

The Champs Elysee 2nd came about because of his awesomness as a leadout man, taking the corner early.

It might be a good idea for Rabo to get Renshaw to do what Marcatto does, with attacks like 500m from the end, epsecially on finishes with tight bends, which can win the race and as the others bring him back, matthews/bos, are good for the sprint.

problem is they shouldn't use bos as a back up. It's either all for renshaw or not imo (maybe matthews can conjure something up himself). Bos has a better turn of speed im sure (he is very quick over a short distance), but he is a less complete rider. While he has the speed, bos struggles to hold it for very long. A rider whom would use a train very well imo. If they're gonna play the bos card at all, I hope they do it right or it'll just be a waste.

I'm all for renshaw giving it a proper go as a sprinter. Who knows what he can really produce with some more expierence.

 

[Skibby the bush kangaroo]

This is great. If you are up for a challenge I would like to see a calculation of the "Ideal" team from 2011. What 25-33 names would be the best to pick and the final score. What would be the ideal correlation between percentage gain and points gain?

Well the optimal team for 2011 was:

Rider Points Cost Incr %Incr
1 GILBERT Philippe 3168 1842 1326 72
2 VOECKLER Thomas 1744 854 890 104
3 WIGGINS Bradley 1322 376 946 252
4 VAN AVERMAET Greg 1199 632 567 90
5 MOLLEMA Bauke 1101 524 577 110
6 LEIPHEIMER Levi 1074 512 562 110
7 COBO ACEBO Juan Jose 1048 0 1048 Inf
8 KITTEL Marcel 1041 60 981 1635
9 MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 918 224 694 310
10 FROOME Chris 779 126 653 518
11 PONZI Simone 728 86 642 747
12 GERRANS Simon 727 140 587 419
13 DEGENKOLB John 711 144 567 394
14 GALIMZYANOV Denis 698 195 503 258
15 POELS Wout 681 266 415 156
16 ROUX Anthony 673 264 409 155
17 HERMANS Ben 657 223 434 195
18 GALLOPIN Tony 654 140 514 367
19 PINOT Thibaut 639 241 398 165
20 KIRYIENKA Vasil 568 166 402 242
21 BRUTT Pavel 486 91 395 434
22 VANDE VELDE Christian 475 90 385 428
23 LIGTHART Pim 455 51 404 792
24 TEN DAM Laurens 454 97 357 368
25 VANENDERT Jelle 435 19 416 2189
26 TABORRE Fabio 415 31 384 1239
27 SERGENT Jesse 394 30 364 1213
28 DOWSETT Alex 378 10 368 3680
29 KESSIAKOFF Fredrik 372 34 338 994
30 SCHUMACHER Stefan 365 5 360 7200
31 NIZZOLO Giacomo 348 4 344 8600
32 GUARDINI Andrea 332 4 328 8200
33 HAAS Nathan 295 0 295 Inf
TOTAL 25334 7481

So anyone with a time machine could have clean up big time.

 

[Eric8-A]

I wanted to pick Flavio de Luna since he's a zero pointer, and because he's Mexican. But I wouldn't see him bringing a big profit since he's still fairly young, and I don't see riders from Spider-Tech score very much.

 

[Skibby the bush kangaroo]

The "optimal" team from 2011 in terms of maximizing the popularity score was:

Name Freq Points Cost
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor 29 634 952
ARVESEN Kurt Asle 18 40 24
BOONEN Tom 36 502 777
BOS Theo 36 463 182
COBO ACEBO Juan Jose 35 1048 0
CUNEGO Damiano 25 1175 659
DEGENKOLB John 28 711 144
DEIGNAN Philip 29 102 5
DI LUCA Danilo 23 232 113
DOWSETT Alex 23 378 10
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres 37 286 181
FEILLU Brice 30 30 70
GERRANS Simon 42 727 140
HAUSSLER Heinrich 73 496 251
KASHECHKIN Andrey 32 28 84
KESSIAKOFF Fredrik 19 372 34
LÖFKVIST Thomas 25 308 319
MATTHEWS Michael 24 602 258
NUYENS Nick 25 508 220
OSS Daniel 19 277 390
PELLIZOTTI Franco 64 0 0
PHINNEY Taylor 40 344 217
RENSHAW Mark 24 286 106
RICCO Riccardo 42 24 756
RUJANO GUILLEN Jose Humberto 25 528 261
SEELDRAEYERS Kevin 23 206 40
SICARD Romain 33 0 0
SOLER HERNANDEZ Juan Mauricio 44 59 47
STYBAR Zdenek 23 172 9
TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets 21 163 75
URAN URAN Rigoberto 22 732 410
VANDE VELDE Christian 50 475 90
WIGGINS Bradley 21 1322 376
TOTAL 1040 13230 7200

Which would have beaten everyone except ingsve and Waterloo Sunrise. So the collective wisdom of the forum is reasonably good.

 

[Jancouver]

Well the optimal team for 2011 was:

Rider Points Cost Incr %Incr
1 GILBERT Philippe 3168 1842 1326 72
2 VOECKLER Thomas 1744 854 890 104
3 WIGGINS Bradley 1322 376 946 252
4 VAN AVERMAET Greg 1199 632 567 90
5 MOLLEMA Bauke 1101 524 577 110
6 LEIPHEIMER Levi 1074 512 562 110
7 COBO ACEBO Juan Jose 1048 0 1048 Inf
8 KITTEL Marcel 1041 60 981 1635
9 MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 918 224 694 310
10 FROOME Chris 779 126 653 518
11 PONZI Simone 728 86 642 747
12 GERRANS Simon 727 140 587 419
13 DEGENKOLB John 711 144 567 394
14 GALIMZYANOV Denis 698 195 503 258
15 POELS Wout 681 266 415 156
16 ROUX Anthony 673 264 409 155
17 HERMANS Ben 657 223 434 195
18 GALLOPIN Tony 654 140 514 367
19 PINOT Thibaut 639 241 398 165
20 KIRYIENKA Vasil 568 166 402 242
21 BRUTT Pavel 486 91 395 434
22 VANDE VELDE Christian 475 90 385 428
23 LIGTHART Pim 455 51 404 792
24 TEN DAM Laurens 454 97 357 368
25 VANENDERT Jelle 435 19 416 2189
26 TABORRE Fabio 415 31 384 1239
27 SERGENT Jesse 394 30 364 1213
28 DOWSETT Alex 378 10 368 3680
29 KESSIAKOFF Fredrik 372 34 338 994
30 SCHUMACHER Stefan 365 5 360 7200
31 NIZZOLO Giacomo 348 4 344 8600
32 GUARDINI Andrea 332 4 328 8200
33 HAAS Nathan 295 0 295 Inf
TOTAL 25334 7481

So anyone with a time machine could have clean up big time.

Awesome! Thanks. How did you calculate that if I can ask?

 

[Skibby the bush kangaroo]

Finally, the team for this year that maximizes the popularity score (it does just coincide with the 33 most popular riders - whereas last year there was some trade off between cost and popularity needed)

Name Pop Cost
BRESCHEL Matti 105 98
VELITS Peter 91 205
BOONEN Tom 76 502
POZZATO Filippo 75 301
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 73 190
ROGERS Michael 66 137
SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon 63 439
DAVIS Allan 62 118
RENSHAW Mark 62 286
SICARD Romain 59 0
DEVOLDER Stijn 55 145
KREUZIGER Roman 55 528
VANMARCKE Sep 52 128
PORTE Richie 50 261
LARSSON Gustav Erik 47 206
IGLINSKIY Maxim 45 77
MAJKA Rafal 45 57
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor 44 634
DEMARE Arnaud 44 148
PHINNEY Taylor 43 344
HAUSSLER Heinrich 42 496
KELDERMAN Wilco 41 134
LLOYD Matthew 40 0
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 40 60
TALANSKY Andrew 39 229
OFFREDO Yoann 37 295
BATTAGLIN Enrico 36 228
DURBRIDGE Luke 36 65
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben 35 81
VANENDERT Jelle 35 435
LANDA MEANA Mikel 34 63
MAASKANT Martijn 34 47
KROON Karsten 32 33
TOTAL 1693 6970

 

[Skibby the bush kangaroo]

Awesome! Thanks. How did you calculate that if I can ask?

I used the R statistical software package. You have to solve an integer programming problem. I did it previously in September and gave some code in this post http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=681188&postcount=2847