The 2012 CQ Ranking Manager Game

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Have to say Gerrens is a very brave pick - a 31 year old who was 70 points off his best every last year.

 

[taiwan]

Feeling like an idiot for not picking Lloyd now as well as Sicard.

 

[fedaia]

Feeling like an idiot for not picking Lloyd now as well as Sicard.

haha, me too.
would have picked Lloyd if he had joined Greenedge
and thought Sicard has a kind of muscular dysbalance that won't be suddenly solved, but now I think the same as you

 

[Ruby United]

I got 110 from porte and lloyd. Did anyone have gerrans lloyd and porte?

 

[Kvinto]

To be honest, i wouldn't pick M.Lloyd even if i knew he should win the Nationals, not a big loss.

Funny thing is that i didn't include Porte because thought that he should gain points mainly from tts (as his 2010 score is exaggerated by the lucky Giro) and 260 points is too expensive for a pure tter. But now this guy gets bronze in the Nationals RR, lol

 

[sublimit]

I hope Durbridge wins the ITT as I need all the points possible from him, didnt realise that he has a mainly track focus this year otherwise I might of gone for somebody else in the 60/70 point range.

Porte should win though.

 

[HelgeBlendet]

Best way to make your first post on a forum? Bragging!

After reading CN for quite some time I couldn't resist to join the ManGame. Had no special tactics choosing my team. Just skim through cq and picking names I've heard of recently and then trying to eliminate most of the big guns.

Team list (note: 30 pts missing in my score-list )

GESINK Robert 868
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor 634
HORNER Chris 558
SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon 439
VANENDERT Jelle 435
LANGEVELD Sebastian 417
LÖFKVIST Thomas 308
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres 286
RENSHAW Mark 286
OSS Daniel 277
EL FARES Julien 270
PORTE Richie 261
MARTENS Paul 246
SELIG Rüdiger 232
LARSSON Gustav Erik 206
VELITS Peter 205
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 190
VAITKUS Tomas 164
DEVOLDER Stijn 145
ROGERS Michael 137
SMUKULIS Gatis 133
VANMARCKE Sep 128
DAVIS Allan 118
BRESCHEL Matti 98
LUND Anders 81
ROWE Luke 75
DURBRIDGE Luke 65
LANDA MEANA Mikel 63
VEIKKANEN Jussi 48
MAASKANT Martijn 47
HOSTE Leif 44
REUS Kai 6
LLOYD Matthew 0

Great start with Porte, Lloyd and Rogers. Porte, Rogers and Durbo should do well in the ITT. After that I'll be moving to the roadside watching you flying by and ending up pretty low. At least, I had a good start.

 

[Ferminal]

To be honest, i wouldn't pick M.Lloyd even if i knew he should win the Nationals, not a big loss.

How many points are you expecting from Sicard then?

15th in the TdU would have Lloyd at 94 points... Even doing nothing for the rest of the season other than finishing races would get him close to 150 which for me is where 0 pointers become acceptable. You are correct in saying it's not a big loss though, only a big loss if he gets over 300 or so, but that is unlikely.

I hope Durbridge wins the ITT as I need all the points possible from him, didnt realise that he has a mainly track focus this year otherwise I might of gone for somebody else in the 60/70 point range.

Porte should win though.

That's why I didn't pick him but I deeply regret it now.

 

[Kvinto]

How many points are you expecting from Sicard then?

15th in the TdU would have Lloyd at 94 points... Even doing nothing for the rest of the season other than finishing races would get him close to 150 which for me is where 0 pointers become acceptable. You are correct in saying it's not a big loss though, only a big loss if he gets over 300 or so, but that is unlikely.

Sicard is different, i like him (though in fact he remains in my team by chance due to my counting mistake).

I tried to omit very cheap riders whose max is 150-200 points and very expensive ones who might get injured and won't score more than... hmm... lets say 130-150%.

My logic being that the ideal team is about 2x profit (i don't mind this 3.5x theoretical max of 2011 game, because those who seriously expected 170% from Gilbert and knew about Nathan Haas at the same time deserve a Nobel prize). So ideally every 1 spent point should turn into 2. As the example I have 1000 points and want to invest it into 2 riders: 1 zero-pointer and one expensive (1000 points). If i want to have 2x ie 2000 points in the result and my zero pointer scores even 250 points then I should expect 1750 points (175%) from a 1000-pointer (in fact i’d love to know several 1000-pointers who can make an easy 150%). IMO the more ‘max 250 points gain’ zero pointers you have (it actually concerns to the whole range of 0-50 point bargains) – the more you should expect from more expensive riders, who in fact have their limits and increased risk. It’s easier to find riders from 100 to 400 points who are reasonably expected to make from 2x (for the ones closer to 400) to 3-5x (for the ones about 100).

Of course it’s not wise to avoid cheap or expensive riders at all, but I wanted to have max good 100-400 point picks and some special ones beyond these boundaries.

PS: as I’m not much into track cycling I failed with Durbridge as many others

 

[Kvinto]

i've just spent almost an hour thinking about the profitable of low-pointers in this game :facepalm: and arrived at an obvious conclusion that i've actually wasted this hour

 

[sublimit]

i've just spent almost an hour thinking about the profitable of low-pointers in this game :facepalm: and arrived at an obvious conclusion that i've actually wasted this hour

There's some reasonable low pointers, but nothing like a Cobo or Kittel from last year from what I can see.

Ingsves team looks rather good again to be fair - I would have him as favourite, Hitch has a good team and yourself also.

I'm looking for top 25 myself.

 

[Moondance]

Damn you Lloyd... You stiff me all of last year, and now at the first opportunity you score sixy points! :furiously shakes fist at computer screen:

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Damn you Lloyd... You stiff me all of last year, and now at the first opportunity you score sixy points! :furiously shakes fist at computer screen:

To comfort you a bit, I actually have you as one of the favorites this year

 

[Moondance]

To comfort you a bit, I actually have you as one of the favorites this year

That does cheer me up, thanks.

 

[The Hitch]

To comfort you a bit, I actually have you as one of the favorites this year

Very interested to see who people see as the favourites.

Maybe even with odds.

I have not yet had a chance to see a tenth of the 130 teams. Last year was easier with just 30 at first, so i have absolutely no idea other than that I am wary of ingsve and WS for obvious reasons.

 

[ingsve]

It's a lot harder to find the front runners this year. Last year you could look at a team and spot really obvious mistakes that made it clear that there was no chance that team would be able to compete but this year a lot of the teams are very well rounded without that many glaring mistakes. It will be more a question of getting lucky with your specific riders having a good year while others key riders have a bad year and that's impossible to predict.

 

[will10]

It's a lot harder to find the front runners this year. Last year you could look at a team and spot really obvious mistakes that made it clear that there was no chance that team would be able to compete but this year a lot of the teams are very well rounded without that many glaring mistakes. It will be more a question of getting lucky with your specific riders having a good year while others key riders have a bad year and that's impossible to predict.

+1

I started to look through the teams but a) there's far too many to try to pick a winner and b) there are a lot of teams that I look at and think "yep, can't see many poor picks there, seems to tick all the right boxes".

PS. ingsve can I have your expert opinion on my team please?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

It's a lot harder to find the front runners this year. Last year you could look at a team and spot really obvious mistakes that made it clear that there was no chance that team would be able to compete but this year a lot of the teams are very well rounded without that many glaring mistakes. It will be more a question of getting lucky with your specific riders having a good year while others key riders have a bad year and that's impossible to predict.

Definitely agree. And I think we'll witness a very close race this year. Unless something silly happens so one team runs away but I doubt it.

 

[ingsve]

Definitely agree. And I think we'll witness a very close race this year. Unless something silly happens so one team runs away but I doubt it.

Ya, I doubt anyone will run off to a 1000+ point lead like I did for a while.

 

[Panda Claws]

I just realized that I do not have the maximum number of riders.

Already out of competition.

 

[luckyboy]

woo lloyd etc

 

[ingsve]

+1

I started to look through the teams but a) there's far too many to try to pick a winner and b) there are a lot of teams that I look at and think "yep, can't see many poor picks there, seems to tick all the right boxes".

PS. ingsve can I have your expert opinion on my team please?

Sure.

ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor
BRAJKOVIC Janez
KREUZIGER Roman
BOONEN Tom
HAUSSLER Heinrich
SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon
POZZATO Filippo
LARSSON Gustav Erik
VELITS Peter
ROGERS Michael
BRESCHEL Matti
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben
MAASKANT Martijn
KROON Karsten
SICARD Romain

First we have 15 riders that I also have in my team so I obviously think those have a decent shot at having a good year. One thing I've noticed is that a lot of the top choices that appear in a lot of teams are also some of the more expensive picks. That in itself will probably influence this season quite a bit either by making the game closer or in case some of them completely fails it will be important to have avoided that perticular rider.


VANENDERT Jelle
GUARDINI Andrea
OFFREDO Yoann
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres
MARTENS Paul
TALANSKY Andrew
CLEMENT Stef
BLYTHE Adam
SILIN Egor
VANMARCKE Sep
GUTIERREZ PALACIOS Jose Ivan
DAVIS Allan
GUARNIERI Jacopo
IGLINSKIY Maxim
HOSTE Leif
CHTIOUI Rafaâ
VAUGRENARD Benoît

Out of the rest there aren't that many obvious mistakes. Most of them are cheap enough so that even if they would fail it's not the end of the world and I think a lot of them have as good a shot as any to have a good season while some are perhaps more long shots to have a great season.

Vanendert is a risky choice in my mind. I tend to shy away from riders who have had a breakthrough and in order to make a profit needs to have yet another big step forward. That's always going to be a risky move. Betancur is a bit in the same spot but since he is cheaper it's easier for him to get a profit and less of a risk if he fails.

Duarte is another rider that is hard to know what he will do. It depends on what races his team can get invited too and what shape he is in when those opportunities comes around. If he was 100 points cheaper it would have been a safer choice.

Guardini had a solid season last year but he still rides for Farnese Vini so his program won't really be improved that much so I have a hard time seeing where he could possibly improve enough to be worth a selection. He's the type of sprinter that wins stages rather than classics so it's harder for him to get a lot of points in one win. There are a few italian one day races he could do well in I guess but I think he is more likely to repeat his score than improve significatly on it.

Offredo is obviously the big drawback since even if he doesn't get suspended by his federation the UCI would probably appeal to CAS so it would drag out and definately affect his season.

Overall I would say it's a decent team that probably would need a little more luck than some other teams to get the win but it's still in with a shot.

 

[The Hitch]

Vanendert is a risky choice in my mind. I tend to shy away from riders who have had a breakthrough and in order to make a profit needs to have yet another big step forward..[

Betancur is a bit in the same spot but since he is cheaper it's easier for him to get a profit and less of a risk if he fails.

Duarte

The idea with these riders isnt that they will improve but that they will be given chances.

Vanendert was working for GIlbert during the Ardennes. Maybe this year he can ride for himself.

He had 2 great mtfs at the Tour, but was neither the leader nor the 2nd leader going into the race. Maybe this year Lotto realise they have 2 good riders and give Jelle a little more breathing space. Same way the Schleck bros colead.


Or better yet ride a gt for himself.

I doubt many of those of us who chose him expected Jelle to improve even more. If we did he would be the first person on our teamsheet.

Duarte even more so. He doesnt need to improve, he can even stagnate, and still get better points because now hes the leader. Free to go for whatver stage race he desires (and is invited to).

Betancur, its a case of A&S have seen he can win hilly classics and do good mountain stages. Those of us who have him on the team merely hope that A&S throw some support behind him.

 

[Froome19]

The idea with these riders isnt that they will improve but that they will be given chances.

Vanendert was working for GIlbert during the Ardennes. Maybe this year he can ride for himself.

He had 2 great mtfs at the Tour, but was neither the leader nor the 2nd leader going into the race. Maybe this year Lotto realise they have 2 good riders and give Jelle a little more breathing space. Same way the Schleck bros colead.


Or better yet ride a gt for himself.

I doubt many of those of us who chose him expected Jelle to improve even more. If we did he would be the first person on our teamsheet.

Duarte even more so. He doesnt need to improve, he can even stagnate, and still get better points because now hes the leader. Free to go for whatver stage race he desires (and is invited to).

Betancur, its a case of A&S have seen he can win hilly classics and do good mountain stages. Those of us who have him on the team merely hope that A&S throw some support behind him.

Seems vanendert will be doing the tour in support of van den broeck yet will also have a bit of a free reign. its a shame as i feel he could definitely start making impacts gc wise in 3 week races.
Yet watch out for him in the classics; he got top 20 in all ardennes in support of gilbert and was imo one of the strongest at amstel gold. At least on my team he was one of the first.
It doesn't matter whether Duarte's leader or not as ingsve says hes got lesser chances so he's not necessarily free to go to whatever races he wants. it really all depend on what races they get invited to yet he should be able to better his points and if they get a gt invite he could probably do much better.

 

[will10]

VANENDERT Jelle
GUARDINI Andrea
OFFREDO Yoann
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres
MARTENS Paul
TALANSKY Andrew
CLEMENT Stef
BLYTHE Adam
SILIN Egor
VANMARCKE Sep
GUTIERREZ PALACIOS Jose Ivan
DAVIS Allan
GUARNIERI Jacopo
IGLINSKIY Maxim
HOSTE Leif
CHTIOUI Rafaâ
VAUGRENARD Benoît

Out of the rest there aren't that many obvious mistakes. Most of them are cheap enough so that even if they would fail it's not the end of the world and I think a lot of them have as good a shot as any to have a good season while some are perhaps more long shots to have a great season.

Vanendert is a risky choice in my mind. I tend to shy away from riders who have had a breakthrough and in order to make a profit needs to have yet another big step forward. That's always going to be a risky move. Betancur is a bit in the same spot but since he is cheaper it's easier for him to get a profit and less of a risk if he fails.

Duarte is another rider that is hard to know what he will do. It depends on what races his team can get invited too and what shape he is in when those opportunities comes around. If he was 100 points cheaper it would have been a safer choice.

Guardini had a solid season last year but he still rides for Farnese Vini so his program won't really be improved that much so I have a hard time seeing where he could possibly improve enough to be worth a selection. He's the type of sprinter that wins stages rather than classics so it's harder for him to get a lot of points in one win. There are a few italian one day races he could do well in I guess but I think he is more likely to repeat his score than improve significatly on it.

Offredo is obviously the big drawback since even if he doesn't get suspended by his federation the UCI would probably appeal to CAS so it would drag out and definately affect his season.

Overall I would say it's a decent team that probably would need a little more luck than some other teams to get the win but it's still in with a shot.

Thanks for taking the time to do that, much appreciated. I agree with a lot of what you've written, my main logic for picking Vanendert, Betancur and Duarte is that they are all to be leaders on their teams which should result in a higher score than riding for someone else. Vanendert in particular did well in the Ardennes as a domestique du luxe for Gilbert, hope he can do well there. He's also someone I've always cheered for since he was an U23 so also a fave pick. I expect Guardini to ride a similar race program to last year, plus the Giro as long as they're invited. There's a fair few totally flat stages in the Giro this year that should be right up his street, but we'll see.

Thanks again.