The 2013 CQ Ranking Manager Game

[the asian]

Anyone has Le Bon ?

Already in profit, and should have preety tidy sum of points at the end of season. Wouldn't be surprised with around 500, many French races on calendar that have tt's that decide the race and he should excell in them.

I had him last year and was quite disappointed with his points, so I didn't pick him this year Thought he would take some more time to get a handy points tally coz he's a classics rider.
Happy for him. Following him since he won World Juniors.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

A sweet 50 points from Van Keirsbulck in Driedaagse de Panne.

 

[al_pacino]

A sweet 50 points from Van Keirsbulck in Driedaagse de Panne.

Nice points but that was my lot from that race.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Nice points but that was my lot from that race.

Me too, I think

 

[jaylew]

Gilbert withdraws from Ronde due to a cold.

The curse of the rainbow jersey is real.

Good for some of us. I'm counting on Gilbert not having a big year and people wasting big points on him. Now I just need the Green Bullet and the Spanish/Columbian armada to take a bite out of his Ardennes points.

Yeah, it's still early days, but speaking of possible wasted points, remind me to never take two sprinters who can't get over a speedbump.

 

[will10]

I only had GVK, Arndt and Finetto in De Panne. Now Mauro didn't Finetto but a nice few for Arndt to get off the mark and a good TT gets GVK 50 more.

 

[Netserk]

An analysis of Fabian Cancellara

An analysis of Fabian Cancellara

First I'll try to estimate what Cancellara should score this year for him to be a good pick. Then I'll try to estimate what he will score this year.

The total cost of a team is 7500 points and last year's top ten scored between 16,314 and 19,345 points (217.52 and 257.93 %). But since Cancellara is an expensive pick (costing 4.5 times as much as the average rider on each team), it won't be necessary for him to score between 2242 and 2660 points (217.52 and 257.93 %), to be a good pick.

His highest score in a non-Olympic year was in 2010 (1559). In 2008 was his all time highest though (1860). Those two scores would give him a ratio of 151 and 180 %.

Based on last year's teams and results, a ratio between 140 and 160 % would make him a solid/good pick. > 160 % would make him a very good pick. He wouldn't be a good pick, but affordable if he scored between 100 and 140 %. He would be a bad pick if he scored less than last year.

In points:
Very good pick (> 160 %) = > 1650
Solid/good pick (140-160 %) = 1443-1650
Non-good pick (100-140 %) = 1031-1443
Bad pick (< 100 %) = < 1031

At the moment he has scored 442. Last year that was 469. In 2010 that was 306. In 2008 that was 812.

I don't know which races he will attend the rest of the year, but I do have a guess.

RvV - I expect him to podium this race, with a good chance that it will be on the upper step.

P-R - The same as RvV.

(Romandie) - I do think that he will race this. Perhaps he will win the prologue (and wear the leaders jersey for a few stages) and the long ITT. Depends on opposition.

Giro D'Italia - Could very well snatch the leader's jersey in the first three stages. I do expect him to lose it on stage 4. Stage 7 could suit him, but I think he will take that one easy, so that he is ready for the ITT. I don't think he'll win the ITT, but I do think he'll podium it. Stage 13 should suit him as well. After this I think he will drop out.

(Tour de Suisse) - I expect him to race this one. He might win the prologue, but will lose the leader's jersey in the next stage. Stage 5 and 8 could be for him, but I don't think he'll win either.

Nationals - Could win both.

I don't know what he will race next. Perhaps Pologne (27th July - 3rd August) and Eneco (11th - 18th August)? Pologne doesn't suit him at all, starting with two MTFs. He could win Eneco with a similar route to last year's, but normally he doesn't seem to care much for Eneco.

(Vuelta) - I think he'll do the Vuelta to prepare for the worlds. I don't expect much from him here. Maybe he'll win the ITT, but I think it's more realistic that he won't.

Worlds - The ITT is a power one, where I expect both Phinney and Martin to beat Canc. The Road Race seems too hard (280km!). Besides the race on his home soil, he never does much in the RR. I don't think he will be able to top 10.

I think he will finish his season after the worlds.

Already has: 422
RvV: 145-280
P-R: 145-280
Romandie: 30-100
Giro: 50-300
Suisse: 10-100
Nationals: 15-90
Pologne: 0
Eneco: 0-320
Vuelta: 25-100
WCs: 150-650

Total: 992-2642
Estimated score: 1300-1450

This is considering no crashes and illness.

Conclusion: I don't think he'll be a good pick, but he does have the potential to be great.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Anyone has Le Bon ?

Already in profit, and should have preety tidy sum of points at the end of season. Wouldn't be surprised with around 500, many French races on calendar that have tt's that decide the race and he should excell in them.

He is one of my least *** picks this year. About time too, I have him on my team for the 3rd year running.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Cool stuff Netserk! Would love to see an analysis of Sagan

 

[Netserk]

Cool stuff Netserk! Would love to see an analysis of Sagan

I think he'll at least be a solid pick. Most likely a very good one

But it's just my estimation. Given my current placing (around 100th ), it should be taken with a grain of salt. I would love some inputs from others, as I think that Canc is one of the more interesting picks.

EDIT: But I must say that I really don't have a clue what he will race after the Nationals. I feel confident that he'll do the Vuelta, but other than that, it is mostly a crapshoot.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Netserk - WCs 150-650 but you think he will get beaten by phinney and martin in the tt and he wont top 10 in RR. How is he ever gonna get that much points

 

[Netserk]

Netserk - WCs 150-650 but you think he will get beaten by phinney and martin in the tt and he wont top 10 in RR. How is he ever gonna get that much points

650 is if he wins both.

Besides the home soil WC and the Olympics, he have never shown anything in the RR. But if he suddenly has his '09 WC shape, he surely can contend for the win in both races. I don't expect it and I find it highly unluckily, but I won't rule it out either.

What do you think?

 

[Netserk]

I have also 0-320 for Eneco, which he will get if he wins two stages (ITT and Muur stage) and the overall. I don't expect him to, but it is possible.

 

[Pentacycle]

The Firenze RR has a 4 km climb in it, so you can probably rule out victory there. The TT will be difficult as well for Canc. It's just very hard to make profit with such big picks, as many (including me) are also experiencing with Gilbert. And has Cancellara ever done Eneco? I doubt he will go full gas there, maybe prepare for other Italian races in the Vuelta? After all, his season will be a very tough one, making it essential to rest once in while.

 

[Netserk]

The Firenze RR has a 4 km climb in it, so you can probably rule out victory there. The TT will be difficult as well for Canc. It's just very hard to make profit with such big picks, as many (including me) are also experiencing with Gilbert. And has Cancellara ever done Eneco? I doubt he will go full gas there, maybe prepare for other Italian races in the Vuelta? After all, his season will be a very tough one, making it essential to rest once in while.

Did you read what I expected from him at the WC?

Worlds - The ITT is a power one, where I expect both Phinney and Martin to beat Canc. The Road Race seems too hard (280km!). Besides the race on his home soil, he never does much in the RR. I don't think he will be able to top 10.

 

[will10]

Big picks don't need to make big profits to be good picks, as they allow a higher number of cheap riders that can make like 500% profits.

If I get 2500 from Gilbert and Cancellara this season I'll be happy.

 

[Netserk]

Big picks don't need to make big profits to be good picks, as they allow a higher number of cheap riders that can make like 500% profits.

If I get 2500 from Gilbert and Cancellara this season I'll be happy.

I did account for that

Otherwise he would have to score at least 2200 points to be a solid pick, and even more to be a good one.

 

[will10]

Ja but you suggest <140% profit and he's not a good pick. I think closer to 120%.

 

[Pentacycle]

Did you read what I expected from him at the WC?

I think I should've said he probably gets 5 from racing and finishing the RR, or 0 if he DNF's. Instead of no chance of victory.

 

[jsem94]

This classics season has been pretty abysmal for me

 

[Netserk]

I think I should've said he probably gets 5 from racing and finishing the RR, or 0 if he DNF's. Instead of no chance of victory.

Did you see the Mendrisio and Beijing Road Race?

I don't expect that Cancellara to show up, but if he does, then he could win it with some luck.

EDIT: Beijing course:

 

[The Hitch]

An analysis of Fabian Cancellara

First I'll try to estimate what Cancellara should score this year for him to be a good pick. Then I'll try to estimate what he will score this year.

The total cost of a team is 7500 points and last year's top ten scored between 16,314 and 19,345 points (217.52 and 257.93 %). But since Cancellara is an expensive pick (costing 4.5 times as much as the average rider on each team), it won't be necessary for him to score between 2242 and 2660 points (217.52 and 257.93 %), to be a good pick.

His highest score in a non-Olympic year was in 2010 (1559). In 2008 was his all time highest though (1860). Those two scores would give him a ratio of 151 and 180 %.

Based on last year's teams and results, a ratio between 140 and 160 % would make him a solid/good pick. > 160 % would make him a very good pick. He wouldn't be a good pick, but affordable if he scored between 100 and 140 %. He would be a bad pick if he scored less than last year.

In points:
Very good pick (> 160 %) = > 1650
Solid/good pick (140-160 %) = 1443-1650
Non-good pick (100-140 %) = 1031-1443
Bad pick (< 100 %) = < 1031

At the moment he has scored 442. Last year that was 469. In 2010 that was 306. In 2008 that was 812.

I don't know which races he will attend the rest of the year, but I do have a guess.

RvV - I expect him to podium this race, with a good chance that it will be on the upper step.

P-R - The same as RvV.

(Romandie) - I do think that he will race this. Perhaps he will win the prologue (and wear the leaders jersey for a few stages) and the long ITT. Depends on opposition.

Giro D'Italia - Could very well snatch the leader's jersey in the first three stages. I do expect him to lose it on stage 4. Stage 7 could suit him, but I think he will take that one easy, so that he is ready for the ITT. I don't think he'll win the ITT, but I do think he'll podium it. Stage 13 should suit him as well. After this I think he will drop out.

(Tour de Suisse) - I expect him to race this one. He might win the prologue, but will lose the leader's jersey in the next stage. Stage 5 and 8 could be for him, but I don't think he'll win either.

Nationals - Could win both.

I don't know what he will race next. Perhaps Pologne (27th July - 3rd August) and Eneco (11th - 18th August)? Pologne doesn't suit him at all, starting with two MTFs. He could win Eneco with a similar route to last year's, but normally he doesn't seem to care much for Eneco.

(Vuelta) - I think he'll do the Vuelta to prepare for the worlds. I don't expect much from him here. Maybe he'll win the ITT, but I think it's more realistic that he won't.

Worlds - The ITT is a power one, where I expect both Phinney and Martin to beat Canc. The Road Race seems too hard (280km!). Besides the race on his home soil, he never does much in the RR. I don't think he will be able to top 10.

I think he will finish his season after the worlds.

Already has: 422
RvV: 145-280
P-R: 145-280
Romandie: 30-100
Giro: 50-300
Suisse: 10-100
Nationals: 15-90
Pologne: 0
Eneco: 0-320
Vuelta: 25-100
WCs: 150-650

Total: 992-2642
Estimated score: 1300-1450

This is considering no crashes and illness.

Conclusion: I don't think he'll be a good pick, but he does have the potential to be great.

I agree with this.

Though i would add if he does win this worlds, which isnt going to happen, but if he did, he might as well ****ing go for Lombardy a week later.

 

[skidmark]

Just a reminder that you're going great guns in the Youth CQ game. Grmay proving to be an excellent pick.

Yes, true. I shouldn't treat that as the poor younger sibling. I'm very stoked to see Grmay show up on the scoresheet (and personally, 'cause I like him).

Hugo, Van Keirsbulck was my whole lot in de Panne as well. But I think his 50 points is the most I've gotten from a single rider since Pippo won Lagueglia, so I'll take it.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Cancellara's schedule post Roubaix (and probably Amstel) is still unknown at this point. Despite his comments about the Giro, from the latest info we have it's clear that he spoke out of turn and that RSNT wants him at the Tour.

But.. I don't think it matters much, points-wise. Right now, 1400-1600 is likely, I think.

 

[shalgo]

Besides the home soil WC and the Olympics, he have never shown anything in the RR.

Well, he was only millimeters away from a medal in 2011.