The 2015 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[skidmark]

I agree however that being said, I dont think the "Top Picks Team" ever made TOP 10 or even TOP 20.

Basically, you can either go with the obvious picks or you can pick riders that you like or may be somewhat unique.

I dunno, man, the year I won I had the 2nd most popular team (see post #978 here; also see upthread where I talked about how I dropped a 60-point-costing Quintana for Mattias Brandle, lulz). And actually, after looking that up, I see that most popular team Kvinto got 2nd place that year (3rd place Nyssinator was 12th most popular). So there is a strong correlation. None of this goes against the idea of picking unique, of course - just as 2012 was an 'as predicted' year, 2013 wasn't - I don't have hard numbers, but I remember the most popular teams finishing mediocre-like. Anyway, there is satisfaction in either strategy (and more risk in going for unique riders, certainly), but I just wanted to address the statement of 'top picks team' not making top 10. It's just having the right combo that is key, the 'marginal gains' over the competition if you will.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Lots of people want unique picks but for me its the opposite, I want similar.

I think I'm 2nd, according to the file earlier, though some people's scores are not on there, so maybe 4th.

Here is what I see, with sidepoints added for names that have had good scores in the past.

1 the_sceptic 2018
2 The Hitch 2007 -2nd all time.
3 Kazistuta 2002 - 5th all time
4 Lortnoc 1985
5 jeroenk 1975
6 Cykeltyven 1974 - 2nd last year.
7Wallenquist 1969
8 18-Valve. (pithy) 1930
9 skidmark 1929 - 1st all time. Winner 2012
10 merengues 1924

Of course none of those sidepoints has anything to do with this year. We could be the 4 worst players this year who knows.
But generally I think we usually have popular teams (mc mountain also one year had the most popular team and he is 3rd all time).
So there is a good correlation between doing well and having popular teams.

However, to win generally you need a few less popular riders too because you need them to be hits that only work for you and thus seperate you from the pack. I don't have the computer processor right now to download past cq files and see where Pentacycle, Steely Dan, skidmark and ingsve were in popularity files before their winning seasons, but I would guess it wasn't right at the top.

As for me, I only have 1 unpopular rider which is Mancebo, who I only took because I was convinced by one of the other people that has him (search) that skydrive would get into good races this year, and I remember search 2 years ago saying Rebellin was a good pick and I ignored him because he was too old (Rebellin, not search), so my instincts told me to go with the old guy this time.

I don't know if I have ever had a unique pick and certainly not one since 2011. May the streak continue.

The thing is that having a (fairly) unique pick that performs well is not only more beneficial for the purpose of this game than say Henao winning everything but it is also much more satisfying.
That being said, on average popular picks tend to do better so from a winning perspective I get your point (it's something that Skibby showed a long time ago).

I like your team, I had most of those riders at one point or another in my team. I especially like that you have Boudat who I think is going to be a major pick.

 

[oliveira]

For my last year experience, you get into the top by picking some of the point heavy riders that will perform, and then have some very good insights in those riders that are picked by 20-40 people like A. Yates, Sam Bennett, Ben Swift, Kennaugh, Di Grégorio, Wellens or Navardauskas last year. There is the quantity of this very good picks that will make you the winner. Pentacycle proved last year there are not such thing as a "must pick". Won easily the game missing Aru!

 

[oliveira]

As for my team, I tried not to pick the riders rolling down 2014 CQ ranking but trying to find in each World Tour/ProConti team a reasonably priced leader or protected rider.

Then I came up with this guys:

RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim
CAVENDISH Mark
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
BARGUIL Warren
TALANSKY Andrew
BOASSON HAGEN Edvald
PORTE Richie
ROELANDTS Jürgen
LUTSENKO Alexey
GESINK Robert
STANNARD Ian
JUNGELS Bob
MARCATO Marco
NERZ Dominik
BRAJKOVIC Janez
HIVERT Jonathan
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
EWAN Caleb
HOOGERLAND Johnny
SCHUMACHER Stefan

Then I filled the team with some Conti level unexpensive leaders:

KUMP Marko
MARQUE PORTO Alejandro Manuel
MORTON Lachlan

Wanted Ulissi but got this guy with the oportunity to assume some responsability:

POLANC Jan

As I didn't made a spot for a Europcar/FDJ more expensive rider (Voeckler, Vichot and Elissonde were considered) I opted for youngs to be nurtured at Coupe de France:

BOUDAT Thomas
MANZIN Lorenzo

Must had someone from WT newcomer IAM:

ENGER Sondre Holst

And finally some bargains riding different calendars:

HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis
RATTO Daniele
DE GENDT Thomas
WACKERMANN Luca
SILVESTRE Fabio Andre Tomas
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd

I regret a bit not having a few more guys in Italian calendar (Ruffoni and Gatto were considered), and not having anyone in asiatour (Sam Spokes were in my team almost til the last minute and Edgar Pinto was a bit expensive. Paco Mancebo would have been a nice pick if I thought about it.) New Murias Taldea team didn't made too much fuzz here, anyway Garikoitz Bravo were in my draft until the end but Dombrowski made the spot.

 

[Jancouver]

I dunno, man, the year I won I had the 2nd most popular team (see post #978 here; also see upthread where I talked about how I dropped a 60-point-costing Quintana for Mattias Brandle, lulz). And actually, after looking that up, I see that most popular team Kvinto got 2nd place that year (3rd place Nyssinator was 12th most popular). So there is a strong correlation. None of this goes against the idea of picking unique, of course - just as 2012 was an 'as predicted' year, 2013 wasn't - I don't have hard numbers, but I remember the most popular teams finishing mediocre-like. Anyway, there is satisfaction in either strategy (and more risk in going for unique riders, certainly), but I just wanted to address the statement of 'top picks team' not making top 10. It's just having the right combo that is key, the 'marginal gains' over the competition if you will.

Actually, what I was referring to was the team of 33 most popular riders. Not sure about last year, but the previous years when CQmanager was posting and the website was up, if you would have the top 33 most picked riders, you wouldn't even make top 20.

I will try to compile the "top picks team" for this year and we shall see. Actually, this year it may not work as there were some very expensive popular picks this year.

BTW Anybody has the "ideal team" from last year?

 

[martyfulu]

A bit annoyed i left out Dombrowski. Had him in there, shuffled the pack and just left him out by mistake. Did the same with Geraint Thomas a few years ago. Anyway, not expecting to win or be close so not the end of the world. My team for what its worth. Looking forward to all those hours checking how such and such got on at the Tour of Austria etc

RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim
CAVENDISH Mark
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
BAKELANTS Jan
PORTE Richie
ROELANDTS Jürgen
CIOLEK Gerald
ANACONA GOMEZ Winner Andrew
GESINK Robert
CONTI Valerio
KANGERT Tanel
HAUSSLER Heinrich
WEENING Pieter
KONRAD Patrick
BRAMBILLA Gianluca
GATTO Oscar
BRAJKOVIC Janez
TEUNS Dylan
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben
OLIVIER Daan
CRADDOCK Lawson
BASSO Ivan
KÜNG Stefan
MARCZYNSKI Tomasz
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis
EWAN Caleb
MOSER Moreno
WARBASSE Larry
GOSS Matthew
DE GENDT Thomas
KOSHEVOY Ilia
SOLER Marc
NARDIN Alberto

 

[Sasquatch]

Interesting to see that only 15 people picked Grande Ivan.

I thought he was gonna be one of the more popular picks since he is so cheap and with the potential for a new youth at Tinkoff and superdom for Contador.

Yep

As mentioned he is back with Riis, the Giro field is weak as, and he could come second or third to Contador when working for him. If Contador crashes out, Basso probably wins. I picked Basso expecting for him to score points in the Giro and nowhere else

 

[greenedge]

My top picks are Sagan, Styby, Cav

Disappointed to find that two other teams have the same top 3 (Greenedge and PunchingRouleur). Greenedge actually got 4 of my top 5 picks

To cheer you up, I like your team, Rensburg, Visconti, Coquard, Le Bon and Meyer, along with a few other picks should allow you to go well

 

[Jancouver]

To cheer you up, I like your team, Rensburg, Visconti, Coquard, Le Bon and Meyer, along with a few other picks should allow you to go well

Thanks, actually you have quite a few guys I was considering including Talansky who was my top pick last year and I think I had him on a team every year since he started. I know him since he was an amateur and met him at one of the local races. Since then I was following him and cheering for him but decided to leave him out of my team this year so he wont frustrate me any more. He definitely got 1500 points potential IF he gets his ducks in order and decide on heavier race schedule than last year when he didnt race much until the Tour.

I would also take Lars Boom if he wasnt on Astana

 

[skidmark]

Actually, what I was referring to was the team of 33 most popular riders. Not sure about last year, but the previous years when CQmanager was posting and the website was up, if you would have the top 33 most picked riders, you wouldn't even make top 20.

I will try to compile the "top picks team" for this year and we shall see. Actually, this year it may not work as there were some very expensive popular picks this year.

BTW Anybody has the "ideal team" from last year?

Ahhh, noted. Misunderstood the wording. Yeah, I think that year was probably the closest the 'ideal team' would have come to winning, and it would have been top 10? I really don't know - I will maybe look it up when I get the chance. But yes, I believe you're right, pardon the misunderstanding.

More generally, I think my point was that one thing I really appreciate about this game is the richness and validity of different strategies. Your point that picking popular riders is a good way to be consistently in the all-time rankings is true, for sure, and it generally will get you there and thereabouts from year to year. But if you stick with a strategy of trying to lean towards unique picks, you may do (relatively) poorly 4 out of 5 years, but you could have that one year when it all comes together like you envisioned of a best-case scenario. This year I thought by taking a couple of really expensive riders, some obvious 'must have' riders, and a handful of guys I had my eye on that I thought others might not, I'd be taking a risk, but I guess my ranking in the top 10 popularity scores betrays my nature. Ah well. Could have dropped Hivert and Gaudin for Karel Hnik and Emmanuel Buchmann, for example, would have been much more satisfied cheering for those guys.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I dunno, man, the year I won I had the 2nd most popular team (see post #978 here; also see upthread where I talked about how I dropped a 60-point-costing Quintana for Mattias Brandle, lulz). And actually, after looking that up, I see that most popular team Kvinto got 2nd place that year (3rd place Nyssinator was 12th most popular). So there is a strong correlation. None of this goes against the idea of picking unique, of course - just as 2012 was an 'as predicted' year, 2013 wasn't - I don't have hard numbers, but I remember the most popular teams finishing mediocre-like. Anyway, there is satisfaction in either strategy (and more risk in going for unique riders, certainly), but I just wanted to address the statement of 'top picks team' not making top 10. It's just having the right combo that is key, the 'marginal gains' over the competition if you will.

2014 was at least a mixed bag, also. Pentacycle only had the 87th most popular team, and no one came close to matching him.

This is my team. As I posted earlier, this is mainly a fangirl team I've indicated my fangirl faves with "fave"

CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto - 2543 points, 2 picks (fave)
Yes, yes, I know he won't be a great pick, BUT: in previous years I had 5-6-7 riders around 300 points, and they rarely had a good year. So instead of going for the same strategy again, I decided to go for one expensive rider. I'm confident he will score at least 2300 points (in 2011 he scored 2373 and he finished 5th at the Tour and Volta was his only WT 1 week stage race). If everything goes right he might break the CQ record

STYBAR Zdenek - 646 points, 22 picks (fave)
I picked him last year, and he's basically the same cost now. I expect him to score big points at the cobbled classics (particularly P-R), Eneco Tour and the Worlds RR. I think 1000 points is a fair goal.

VALGREN Michael - 563 points, 9 picks (fave)
He will probably suffer from Sagan's presence, but who knows, he's talented enough to score loads and loads of points. I'd be happy with 750 points.

PORTE Richie - 415 points, 124 picks
Don't really like him, but he's a must IMO. Could easily score 1500+.

JUUL JENSEN Christopher - 331 points, 2 picks (fave)
Not sure what to expect. He really impressed me last year, but mostly as a domestique. I'm afraid that'll be the case again, but who knows. I am hoping for 450-500 points.

GESINK Robert - 274 points, 115 picks
Not a huge fan, but he's another must. Even from 2011 to 2013, when he wasn't super impressive, he still scored ~800 points.

SENECHAL Florian - 263 points, 20 picks
I wanted to pick him last year, but didn't. I'm looking forward to following this guy throughout the season. Hoping for 400 points.

STANNARD Ian - 250 points, 72 picks (fave)
Was in my team 2 years ago, and was one of the first to get onto my longlist last season. He was injured for most of the season but won Omloop. I expect at least 400 points.

JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt - 200 points, 7 picks (fave)
Back to MTN. Of course there are loads of sprinters at MTN too, but none of them are as good as Kittel, Degenkolb and Mezgec. Even Arndt seemed to be higher up in the sprinting hierarchy at Giant. I am hoping for 400 points.

GATTO Oscar - 175 points, 20 picks (fave)
Not sure Androni will get many invites to Gatto's races, but he should do better regardless. 300 points.

HIVERT Jonathan - 169 points, 40 picks
Failed at Belkin and is now back in France. In 2012 and 2013 he scored ~500 points on a French ProConti team, so that's what I'm aiming for this year.

BLYTHE Adam - 153 points, 16 picks
He was on my team in 2012 and he more than doubled his score that year. He is even cheaper now than he was back then, and I think Orica is a good team for him. Hoping for 400 points.

CRADDOCK Lawson - 134 points, 16 picks (fave)
Was on my team last year but did not even break even. He did do really well at the Tour of Cali though. If he can perform like that in more races this year, he should score at least 300 points.

ENGER Sondre Holst - 118 points, 29 picks
Late addition to my team. Didn't realize he was so cheap, thought he would be in Cort territory. Hoping for 300 points.

RUFFONI Nicola - 117 points, 20 picks
Really wanted a Bardiani sprinter this year, and it became Ruffoni. Don't think he'll be great, but you never know. Every point above 250 will be a pleasant surprise.

ELISSONDE Kenny - 115 points, 37 picks (fave)
Little Kenny, oh so cheap How could I not include him when he scored over 300 points in 2013? Hoping for the same or better this year.

KÜNG Stefan - 103 points, 30 picks
Quite a good TTer. New Cancellara? We'll see. Would be happy with 250 points.

ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin - 102 points, 69 picks (fave)
Was in my team last year (he was one of those 300+ points fails ). Hope he gets more opportunities to ride for himself this year. Hoping for 300 points.

PAOLINI Luca - 95 points, 16 picks (fave)
This honestly surprises me. 16 picks? Yes, he'll be 38 in a couple days, yes, he'll slave for Kristoff most of the time. But he could just as well get into a break and win a big race, or place well. Look at his cost, and his CQ points history, and tell me it is not worth the risk Hoping for 250 points.

EWAN Caleb - 95 points, 130 picks (fave)
I picked him last year, and he's even cheaper this year. Off to a good start already, now let's see if he can perform against the big guys. I expect at least 300 points.

HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis - 92 points, 132 picks
Must pick. Could score 1000+ points easily.

MOSER Moreno - 87 points, 116 picks (fave)
Picked him last year and he disappointed me, I'm giving him another chance I expect 300 points at least.

VERHELST Louis - 81 points, 1 pick
Not sure what happened here, did not expect him to be a unique pick He finished top 10 in a couple Belgian sprinter races last season, I hope he can consistently finish top 10 and score 200 points or so.

LASCA Francesco - 79 points, 11 picks
Another Italian sprinter, this one's on a Spanish team. He scored 288 in 2013, so he should be able to improve on last year's score. I'm hoping for 200 points.

POLJANSKI Pawel - 75 points, 6 picks (fave)
Really impressed me last year, he showed he's a pretty good climber. Hopefully he can finish high on the GC in some stage races and score me 200 points or more.

GAUDIN Damien - 66 points, 29 picks
Don't know what to expect, but honestly, worse than last year is pretty much impossible. Hoping for 200 points.

RATTO Daniele - 55 points, 23 picks
It seems all my Italians are sprinter types this year He had a bad year last year, signed with UHC, so hopefully that'll give him some new motivation. I expect at least 150 points but am hoping for 300 or more.

MOHORIC Matej - 55 points, 59 picks (fave)
Don't expect him to do extremely well this year, but he's talented enough. Hoping for 200 points.

KUMP Marko - 28 points, 34 picks
Back to Adria. Last season with them he scored almost 400 points. With some WT experience, I am hoping for him to break the 400 point barrier.

DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd - 10 points, 114 picks (fave)
Very cheap. I think Garmin will be a good team for him. I hope he can score 200 points or more.

STORTONI Simone - 8 points, 14 picks
Surprised he got picked only 14 times. He's very cheap and is back on an Italian team. I expect 100 points at least.

ROLLIN Dominique - 0 points, 14 picks
Didn't race at all last year, so anything he gets is profit. I expect 50-150 points.

BOUHANNI Rayane - 0 points, 4 picks
A bit of a gamble, he might score 2 points but could also score 50-60 points.

Some riders I left out:
Fattycur & Fat Cav --> too fat, p) and I preferred Stybar and Valgren in their price range
Schumacher --> He was on my team originally, but didn't feel anything for him, and I don't like that, so switched him and Flakemore (wasn't confident about him at all) for Enger and Rollin
Sagan, Quintana, Froome, Purito --> didn't fit

I like this team a lot. One of the many contenders for the overall win, but it's different.

I considered Contador and I'm actually slightly surprised that only two people picked him. I expected at least a handful of picks, seeing as he frees up a lot of points and you only have one super expensive rider to worry about. Contador could make a nice profit, too. 500+ if he reaches his pre 2014 Tour crash level... why not.

You also have one of the very few teams without either Cavendish, Boasson Hagen OR Betancur. They might do okay, but it's entirely conceivable, to me anyway, that non of them will turn out to be must picks.

[...]As for my chances - a lot will rest on Moser and De Gendt - I was right not to pick Dombrowski last year so fingers crossed not picking these two wont be too damaging -but currently wishing I'd hedged and stuck them in.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how they'll go. Ferminal mentioned that he left them both out, too. It's as valid a strategy as any. I'm guessing that De Gendt in particular will go well, though. Lots of talent and far less domestique duties to worry about.

Moser seemed more of an obviously super charged rider back when he burst on the scene. And now Vaughters is in charge, who favors the "cleaner" approach, IMO. I think Moser has some talent, but at the same time don't think he'll do great this year. Maybe 300 points?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The thing is that having a (fairly) unique pick that performs well is not only more beneficial for the purpose of this game than say Henao winning everything but it is also much more satisfying.
That being said, on average popular picks tend to do better so from a winning perspective I get your point (it's something that Skibby showed a long time ago).

I like your team, I had most of those riders at one point or another in my team. I especially like that you have Boudat who I think is going to be a major pick.

Maybe. Boudat doesn't have the kick Coquard has and is far less focused on the road, too. Until Rio, anyway. But yeah, he's super talented, so it wouldn't be a huge shock if he performed.

 

[IlPirata92]

After a disappoiting first year I think I kind of started to understand how this game should be played. I checked the teams and I think there is only 1 other team that have the Rodriguez/Martin combo. I really like Dan Martin and I expect a good year from him. Last year he would've won LBL if he was not so unlucky.I think he have 2000 points potential but maybe it's just me.

I 'm also happy with my unique pick Oomen. He is very young and he will race for RaboBank Development, where I hope will at least double his score. Last year when he was only 19 years old finished 8th in Tour des Fjords, 3rd in Paris Tour Espoirs and 13th in Tour d'Avenir.

I'm also happy with my other rare picks Hnik, Ahlstrand and G. Bennet. Other than that I'm happy that I have the majority of popular picks.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I don't think that I've posted my team yet so here it is. It's mostly "bargains" who happen to also be some of the most popular picks (I think I'm 17th in the popularity ranking) and then some younger riders whom I think will do well this year.

FROOME Chris
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim
CAVENDISH Mark
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
TALANSKY Andrew
PORTE Richie
GESINK Robert
POZZATO Filippo
HAUSSLER Heinrich
LE BON Johan
TEUNS Dylan
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor
GROENEWEGEN Dylan
ELISSONDE Kenny
KÜNG Stefan
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian
EWAN Caleb
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis
MOSER Moreno
LATOUR Pierre-Roger
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
GOSS Matthew
GAUDIN Damien
BOUDAT Thomas
SCHUMACHER Stefan
RATTO Daniele
DE GENDT Thomas
CHEVRIER Clément
LUDVIGSSON Fredrik
SENNI Manuel
MANZIN Lorenzo
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd

I will elaborate on some of my most uncommon picks:

LE BON Johan:
I think he's a really talented rider who could score a lot of points in races like Driedaagse De Panne and Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen alongside some smaller one day races and cobbled classics.

GROENEWEGEN Dylan:
Another very talented rider who perhaps have stagnated a bit, but he's definitely very talented and if he finds his killer instinct I think he can have a very good season in a team that has a good calender for him.

SENNI Manuel:
A talented young climber who won two stages and finished third overall in the Giro della Valle d'Aosta last year. I don't expect him to set the world on fire, but I think he could have a decent first season among the pros.

CHEVRIER Clément:
Another young climber who probably will get more chances than Senni. He has already showed some promise with decent performances in USA Pro Challenge, Tour of Utah and Tour of California.

LUDVIGSSON Fredrik:
A pick that I now regret. I didn't know that he had undergone surgery, otherwise I wouldn't have picked him. He looks quite talented so perhaps he will show a profit after all.

Riders that I would have liked in my team:

Nicola Ruffoni, Jonathan Hivert, Jakub Marezcko, Nicolas Marini and Simon Yates. Ruffoni I didn't consider that much which I now regret. I think he could easily score 300-400 points. Hivert was in my team for a long time but end the end got cut. I definitely expect him to have a much better season than last year though. Marezcko and Marini are young very talented sprinters but it's hard to fit in that many cheap guys. Yates was also in my team for a long time but in the end got cut to make room for Teuns and Groenewegen. A wise decision? Time will tell.

Good luck to everyone and a very special thanks to skidmark - I know it's a lot of work running the game.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Hugo, why didn't you pick Boasson Hagen? Not saying it's not a valid choice at all, just wondering why you left him out in the end.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Hugo, why didn't you pick Boasson Hagen? Not saying it's not a valid choice at all, just wondering why you left him out in the end.

I didn't consider picking Hagen for very long honestly. He's indeed a very good rider but I'm not sure MTN will get enough invites for him to score 750+ points. Which races do you think he will score in?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I didn't consider picking Hagen for very long honestly. He's indeed a very good rider but I'm not sure MTN will get enough invites for him to score 750+ points. Which races do you think he will score in?

The same or similar races he scored points in the last few years. I'm not worried about them not getting invited to the major races. I think they'll even be at the Tour.

The main concern I have is his cobbled classics campaign.

 

[Wallenquist]

I didn't consider picking Hagen for very long honestly. He's indeed a very good rider but I'm not sure MTN will get enough invites for him to score 750+ points. Which races do you think he will score in?

Hagen in top shape can score everywhere.. Even top10 in Oman would be possible, not mention Qatar, cobbled classics, even Amstel, then Tour, Vattenfall, Plouay and Canada. Plus the Worlds.

 

[Roude Leiw]

I considered ebh and left him out, because ultimately, there are a lot of riders with a similar profile now at mtn (goss, farrar, ebh, ciolek). Ebh is the most versatile of them, but all 4 will march on each others feet in my opinion

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Hagen in top shape can score everywhere.. Even top10 in Oman would be possible, not mention Qatar, cobbled classics, even Amstel, then Tour, Vattenfall, Plouay and Canada. Plus the Worlds.

Yeah sure. I just don't think he'll score enough points to be a very good pick, but I might be underestimating him.

 

[fauniera]

I considered ebh and left him out, because ultimately, there are a lot of riders with a similar profile now at mtn (goss, farrar, ebh, ciolek). Ebh is the most versatile of them, but all 4 will march on each others feet in my opinion

I agree, MTN is a very badly balanced team this year. I don't think EBH will do very much, but i did pick him anyway for safety reasons.

 

[ingsve]

I think the hope is that EBH will come to dominate again when he'll inevitably be raiding a few more lower ranked races. MTN has said that they want EBH to be more aggressive and go for more wins again.

Speaking of MTN. I'm surprised that Stephen Cummings is a unique pick for me. He's a little expensive but at the same time he will get even more opportunities this year and he has stated that he wants to go for more victories and good GC placings.

 

[cineteq]

I didn't consider picking Hagen for very long honestly. He's indeed a very good rider but I'm not sure MTN will get enough invites for him to score 750+ points. Which races do you think he will score in?

This was exactly the reason I skipped him. It's not if he can do it or not, it's when he's going to be given the opportunity to do it, let alone which riders are going to support him.

 

[Netserk]

Ahhh, noted. Misunderstood the wording. Yeah, I think that year was probably the closest the 'ideal team' would have come to winning, and it would have been top 10? I really don't know - I will maybe look it up when I get the chance. But yes, I believe you're right, pardon the misunderstanding.

The first year that team would've got 3rd.

The "optimal" team from 2011 in terms of maximizing the popularity score was:

Name Freq Points Cost
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor 29 634 952
ARVESEN Kurt Asle 18 40 24
BOONEN Tom 36 502 777
BOS Theo 36 463 182
COBO ACEBO Juan Jose 35 1048 0
CUNEGO Damiano 25 1175 659
DEGENKOLB John 28 711 144
DEIGNAN Philip 29 102 5
DI LUCA Danilo 23 232 113
DOWSETT Alex 23 378 10
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres 37 286 181
FEILLU Brice 30 30 70
GERRANS Simon 42 727 140
HAUSSLER Heinrich 73 496 251
KASHECHKIN Andrey 32 28 84
KESSIAKOFF Fredrik 19 372 34
LÖFKVIST Thomas 25 308 319
MATTHEWS Michael 24 602 258
NUYENS Nick 25 508 220
OSS Daniel 19 277 390
PELLIZOTTI Franco 64 0 0
PHINNEY Taylor 40 344 217
RENSHAW Mark 24 286 106
RICCO Riccardo 42 24 756
RUJANO GUILLEN Jose Humberto 25 528 261
SEELDRAEYERS Kevin 23 206 40
SICARD Romain 33 0 0
SOLER HERNANDEZ Juan Mauricio 44 59 47
STYBAR Zdenek 23 172 9
TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets 21 163 75
URAN URAN Rigoberto 22 732 410
VANDE VELDE Christian 50 475 90
WIGGINS Bradley 21 1322 376
TOTAL 1040 13230 7200

Which would have beaten everyone except ingsve and Waterloo Sunrise. So the collective wisdom of the forum is reasonably good.

 

[NairoQ]

I think all this confirms that it's not the popularity which makes a team good compared to others, but it's the quality of the team which makes it popular. All of this only in general of course, every game is different so it varies from year to year.