The 2015 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[NairoQ]

Those cheering for Quintana-Rodriguez:

CQManager (+Froome)
karaev (+Sagan)
NairoQ
Ruvu75 (+Froome)
Schleckamagurky (+Froome AND Sagan)
vladimir

So not at all a popular combination. I've got trust in them.

 

[LaFlorecita]

top 10 By popularity

1 the_sceptic 2033
2 The Hitch 2024
3 Kazistuta 2016
4 Lortnoc 2002
5 jeroenk 1990
6 Cykeltyven 1988
7 Wallenquist 1985
8 Froome19 1948
9 18-Valve. (pithy) 1944
9 skidmark 1944

Not sure I've ever been that far down (55th!)

check your position on this edited version of the spreadsheet or behind the spoiler at this post on VR

105 LaFlorecita 1353

 

[shalgo]

By my standards, I was rather original this year--only 12th in popularity. (I was 7th in that list each of the last three years). Now if only my team can get into the top ten in the ranking that counts.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

I don't know if I have ever had a unique pick and certainly not one since 2011. May the streak continue.

But it's soooo satisfying when you pick a good one. I will always have a place in my heart for Ivan Rovny after his 2013 season.

 

[Jancouver]

My top picks are Sagan, Styby, Cav

Disappointed to find that two other teams have the same top 3 (Greenedge and PunchingRouleur). Greenedge actually got 4 of my top 5 picks

In addition Popchu also got my top 3 with Nairo in between them

 

[Jspear]

Sorry...I'm a ding ****. What is the Popularity rank based on?

 

[Jancouver]

Sorry...I'm a ding ****. What is the Popularity rank based on?

Every rider has a popularity score based on how many teams picked the rider. When you count the popularity scores for all your riders you will get the Popularity Rank. If you have very common picks, you will be higher, when your team is more unique, you will score lower. Some are trying to be creative and select more unique picks, others like Hitch are trying to include the most obvious (popular) riders.

 

[Jancouver]

Lots of people want unique picks but for me its the opposite, I want similar.

I think I'm 2nd, according to the file earlier, though some people's scores are not on there, so maybe 4th.

Here is what I see, with sidepoints added for names that have had good scores in the past.

1 the_sceptic 2018
2 The Hitch 2007 -2nd all time.
3 Kazistuta 2002 - 5th all time
4 Lortnoc 1985
5 jeroenk 1975
6 Cykeltyven 1974 - 2nd last year.
7Wallenquist 1969
8 18-Valve. (pithy) 1930
9 skidmark 1929 - 1st all time. Winner 2012
10 merengues 1924

Of course none of those sidepoints has anything to do with this year. We could be the 4 worst players this year who knows.
But generally I think we usually have popular teams (mc mountain also one year had the most popular team and he is 3rd all time).
So there is a good correlation between doing well and having popular teams.

However, to win generally you need a few less popular riders too because you need them to be hits that only work for you and thus seperate you from the pack. I don't have the computer processor right now to download past cq files and see where Pentacycle, Steely Dan, skidmark and ingsve were in popularity files before their winning seasons, but I would guess it wasn't right at the top.

As for me, I only have 1 unpopular rider which is Mancebo, who I only took because I was convinced by one of the other people that has him (search) that skydrive would get into good races this year, and I remember search 2 years ago saying Rebellin was a good pick and I ignored him because he was too old (Rebellin, not search), so my instincts told me to go with the old guy this time.

I don't know if I have ever had a unique pick and certainly not one since 2011. May the streak continue.

I guess your goal is to overtake the top spot for the overall rankings therefore your approach is understandable and should guarantee high placing but perhaps not the winner's crown in this year edition.

 

[The Hitch]

But it's soooo satisfying when you pick a good one. I will always have a place in my heart for Ivan Rovny after his 2013 season.

Yeah dude but it's also satisfying when only 50 other people have someone like say Aru last year which means as much as 100 others do not

 

[the sceptic]

I guess your goal is to overtake the top spot for the overall rankings therefore your approach is understandable and should guarantee high placing but perhaps not the winner's crown in this year edition.

Those riders are popular for a reason though. Don't think anyone is trying to pick the most popular team just for the sake of being the mst popular team, but I bet it's almost impossible to win if you don't have the riders that are obviously the best value of the game.

So in the long run I think the best approach is to try and figure out who the best value riders are, and then you just need to be lucky and/or clever enough to think of something that others have missed.

 

[Jspear]

Every rider has a popularity score based on how many teams picked the rider. When you count the popularity scores for all your riders you will get the Popularity Rank. If you have very common picks, you will be higher, when your team is more unique, you will score lower. Some are trying to be creative and select more unique picks, others like Hitch are trying to include the most obvious (popular) riders.

Ok, got it...thanks!

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

[...] after all the hubbub over doping cases in the past year, 3 people picked Ulissi and nobody picked Kreuziger. It's nice to have an edition that doesn't have a prominent undercurrent of potential dopers etc.

http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/ulissi_to_be_suspended_for_9-12_months/

Ha, I skimmed through this article last night while I was working on my team and totally misread the Gazzetta quote about Ulissi's upcoming 9-12 month ban. The part that it would be a backdated one. Totally glossed over that one, even though it says "with the ban starting in May when Ulissi tested positive"

If I'd realized that, or would've checked an Italian source to be sure, I'd have picked him and a cheaper filler rider over Betancur in a heartbeat. Betancur is indeed a huge risk as some have pointed out already, whereas the "only" concerns about Ulissi, would be a) the credibility of the Gazzetta dello Sport b) a reduced season (no "easy" TDU points, etc.) but I don't think that will hurt him much, points wise. He'll probably still go 1000+ if he starts racing in mid to late May c) him going "cleaner"

A huge risk, but probably less so than picking Betancur, IMO

STYBAR Zdenek(22)
We have all seen his huge engine that works on all terrains, but he's had his ups and downs in his road career. His attacking style in cyclocross we have loved forever, will have to pay off once on the road as well. Now he's finally had a quiet winter to focus fully on the spring classics, and IMO he has a Terpstra-like potential for this year. Maybe even better as he can also ride for GC's in smaller races.

Stybar was another ridernin the 600-700 range I considered , but he's too reckless for a non-pure sprinter, IMO, and has to compete with his teammates in the cobbled classics. Who knows, though, he could prove to be the most profitable 600er, as I'm not sure if Cav will do much more than 900-1000 this season

 

[NairoQ]

others like Hitch are trying to include the most obvious (popular) riders.

Could be wrong, but I don't think that is at all what he's doing.

I think the more of your picks are picked by others, the more your riders are likely to score high. I think so because of a little thing called the wisdom of the crowd. All of our picks combined should lead to a pretty objective vision of how riders are expected to perform next year (given we all know something about cycling). There are of course expections, you could be one of the few who have forseen the uprise of a certain ride. But accumulated, the higher your popularity ranking is, the more likely your riders are to do well this year in the eyes of the forum.

So I don't think it's a 'strategy' to try and find which riders will be chosen the most, and picking these to decrease the odds of scoring badly. Well, it could be a strategy, but you'd have to have some special ability to read people's minds, and it still wouldn't make you win.

 

[vladimir]

Those cheering for Quintana-Rodriguez:

CQManager (+Froome)
karaev (+Sagan)
NairoQ
Ruvu75 (+Froome)
Schleckamagurky (+Froome AND Sagan)
vladimir

So not at all a popular combination. I've got trust in them.

Interesting to compare our teams. In addition to Nairo+Purito we both have Cav. In addition I had Betancur, Talansky and Kangert on my shortlist. So our teams could have been extremly similar if I had opted for a more top heavy team. Good luck anyway, I think both our teams should have a great chance of finishing in the top 10

 

[NairoQ]

A huge risk, but probably less so than picking Betancur, IMO

I agree, I wanted to include him too. And here I have to contradict my previous post a little bit: picking Betancur is way less risky in terms of the game, since failure will affect many people, while failure with Ulissi would hurt you much more, relatively to other people.

 

[LaFlorecita]

This is my team. As I posted earlier, this is mainly a fangirl team I've indicated my fangirl faves with "fave"

CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto - 2543 points, 2 picks (fave)
Yes, yes, I know he won't be a great pick, BUT: in previous years I had 5-6-7 riders around 300 points, and they rarely had a good year. So instead of going for the same strategy again, I decided to go for one expensive rider. I'm confident he will score at least 2300 points (in 2011 he scored 2373 and he finished 5th at the Tour and Volta was his only WT 1 week stage race). If everything goes right he might break the CQ record

STYBAR Zdenek - 646 points, 22 picks (fave)
I picked him last year, and he's basically the same cost now. I expect him to score big points at the cobbled classics (particularly P-R), Eneco Tour and the Worlds RR. I think 1000 points is a fair goal.

VALGREN Michael - 563 points, 9 picks (fave)
He will probably suffer from Sagan's presence, but who knows, he's talented enough to score loads and loads of points. I'd be happy with 750 points.

PORTE Richie - 415 points, 124 picks
Don't really like him, but he's a must IMO. Could easily score 1500+.

JUUL JENSEN Christopher - 331 points, 2 picks (fave)
Not sure what to expect. He really impressed me last year, but mostly as a domestique. I'm afraid that'll be the case again, but who knows. I am hoping for 450-500 points.

GESINK Robert - 274 points, 115 picks
Not a huge fan, but he's another must. Even from 2011 to 2013, when he wasn't super impressive, he still scored ~800 points.

SENECHAL Florian - 263 points, 20 picks
I wanted to pick him last year, but didn't. I'm looking forward to following this guy throughout the season. Hoping for 400 points.

STANNARD Ian - 250 points, 72 picks (fave)
Was in my team 2 years ago, and was one of the first to get onto my longlist last season. He was injured for most of the season but won Omloop. I expect at least 400 points.

JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt - 200 points, 7 picks (fave)
Back to MTN. Of course there are loads of sprinters at MTN too, but none of them are as good as Kittel, Degenkolb and Mezgec. Even Arndt seemed to be higher up in the sprinting hierarchy at Giant. I am hoping for 400 points.

GATTO Oscar - 175 points, 20 picks (fave)
Not sure Androni will get many invites to Gatto's races, but he should do better regardless. 300 points.

HIVERT Jonathan - 169 points, 40 picks
Failed at Belkin and is now back in France. In 2012 and 2013 he scored ~500 points on a French ProConti team, so that's what I'm aiming for this year.

BLYTHE Adam - 153 points, 16 picks
He was on my team in 2012 and he more than doubled his score that year. He is even cheaper now than he was back then, and I think Orica is a good team for him. Hoping for 400 points.

CRADDOCK Lawson - 134 points, 16 picks (fave)
Was on my team last year but did not even break even. He did do really well at the Tour of Cali though. If he can perform like that in more races this year, he should score at least 300 points.

ENGER Sondre Holst - 118 points, 29 picks
Late addition to my team. Didn't realize he was so cheap, thought he would be in Cort territory. Hoping for 300 points.

RUFFONI Nicola - 117 points, 20 picks
Really wanted a Bardiani sprinter this year, and it became Ruffoni. Don't think he'll be great, but you never know. Every point above 250 will be a pleasant surprise.

ELISSONDE Kenny - 115 points, 37 picks (fave)
Little Kenny, oh so cheap How could I not include him when he scored over 300 points in 2013? Hoping for the same or better this year.

KÜNG Stefan - 103 points, 30 picks
Quite a good TTer. New Cancellara? We'll see. Would be happy with 250 points.

ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin - 102 points, 69 picks (fave)
Was in my team last year (he was one of those 300+ points fails ). Hope he gets more opportunities to ride for himself this year. Hoping for 300 points.

PAOLINI Luca - 95 points, 16 picks (fave)
This honestly surprises me. 16 picks? Yes, he'll be 38 in a couple days, yes, he'll slave for Kristoff most of the time. But he could just as well get into a break and win a big race, or place well. Look at his cost, and his CQ points history, and tell me it is not worth the risk Hoping for 250 points.

EWAN Caleb - 95 points, 130 picks (fave)
I picked him last year, and he's even cheaper this year. Off to a good start already, now let's see if he can perform against the big guys. I expect at least 300 points.

HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis - 92 points, 132 picks
Must pick. Could score 1000+ points easily.

MOSER Moreno - 87 points, 116 picks (fave)
Picked him last year and he disappointed me, I'm giving him another chance I expect 300 points at least.

VERHELST Louis - 81 points, 1 pick
Not sure what happened here, did not expect him to be a unique pick He finished top 10 in a couple Belgian sprinter races last season, I hope he can consistently finish top 10 and score 200 points or so.

LASCA Francesco - 79 points, 11 picks
Another Italian sprinter, this one's on a Spanish team. He scored 288 in 2013, so he should be able to improve on last year's score. I'm hoping for 200 points.

POLJANSKI Pawel - 75 points, 6 picks (fave)
Really impressed me last year, he showed he's a pretty good climber. Hopefully he can finish high on the GC in some stage races and score me 200 points or more.

GAUDIN Damien - 66 points, 29 picks
Don't know what to expect, but honestly, worse than last year is pretty much impossible. Hoping for 200 points.

RATTO Daniele - 55 points, 23 picks
It seems all my Italians are sprinter types this year He had a bad year last year, signed with UHC, so hopefully that'll give him some new motivation. I expect at least 150 points but am hoping for 300 or more.

MOHORIC Matej - 55 points, 59 picks (fave)
Don't expect him to do extremely well this year, but he's talented enough. Hoping for 200 points.

KUMP Marko - 28 points, 34 picks
Back to Adria. Last season with them he scored almost 400 points. With some WT experience, I am hoping for him to break the 400 point barrier.

DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd - 10 points, 114 picks (fave)
Very cheap. I think Garmin will be a good team for him. I hope he can score 200 points or more.

STORTONI Simone - 8 points, 14 picks
Surprised he got picked only 14 times. He's very cheap and is back on an Italian team. I expect 100 points at least.

ROLLIN Dominique - 0 points, 14 picks
Didn't race at all last year, so anything he gets is profit. I expect 50-150 points.

BOUHANNI Rayane - 0 points, 4 picks
A bit of a gamble, he might score 2 points but could also score 50-60 points.

Some riders I left out:
Fattycur & Fat Cav --> too fat, p) and I preferred Stybar and Valgren in their price range
Schumacher --> He was on my team originally, but didn't feel anything for him, and I don't like that, so switched him and Flakemore (wasn't confident about him at all) for Enger and Rollin
Sagan, Quintana, Froome, Purito --> didn't fit

 

[NairoQ]

Interesting to compare our teams. In addition to Nairo+Purito we both have Cav. In addition I had Betancur, Talansky and Kangert on my shortlist. So our teams could have been extremly similar if I had opted for a more top heavy team. Good luck anyway, I think both our teams should have a great chance of finishing in the top 10

I don't see that happening to soon (the general game just doesn't seem to work for me) but I'd sign for that in a second!

About Kangert, I just saw only 10 teams include him. I hope you'll regret it later on.

 

[The Hitch]

Those riders are popular for a reason though. Don't think anyone is trying to pick the most popular team just for the sake of being the mst popular team, but I bet it's almost impossible to win if you don't have the riders that are obviously the best value of the game.

So in the long run I think the best approach is to try and figure out who the best value riders are, and then you just need to be lucky and/or clever enough to think of something that others have missed.

Or pick something that isn't there. For example, I don't think anyone picked froome in 2011or, had the game run, velits in 2010 etc. Even the riders themselves don't know how the season will go. One year the winner scored 18000 and half the forum doubled their score, all other years no one has.the season can go a million directions we only have some of the info.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Or pick something that isn't there. For example, I don't think anyone picked froome in 2011or, had the game run, velits in 2010 etc. Even the riders themselves don't know how the season will go. One year the winner scored 18000 and half the forum doubled their score, all other years no one has.the season can go a million directions we only have some of the info.

Just nitpicking, but Velits wouldn't have been a very good pick in 2010

 

[mc_mountain]

Hitch's strategy for this edition seem to be very close to that of previous years. His record is pretty exceptional. From memory he has 3 top 10 finishes in the game, and in the other year was 12th. That's ridiculously consistent.

As for my chances - a lot will rest on Moser and De Gendt - I was right not to pick Dombrowski last year so fingers crossed not picking these two wont be too damaging -but currently wishing I'd hedged and stuck them in.

Was very nervous of the popularity of some of the young sprinters (Manzin, Marini and Mareckzo) that were showing up in the youth game entries, riders I'd not picked up on at all.

Very interested to follow the season.

 

[Wallenquist]

Problem with young Italian sprinters is that they don't have much chances to shine since Italian scene is lacking pure sprinters races. Unless they show some skills in climbing it will be very hard for them to get a big score. Of course, they can go to Hainan/China/Langkawi and get a score but it's not that obvious with such youngsters like Mareczko or Marini.

 

[Jancouver]

Could be wrong, but I don't think that is at all what he's doing.

I think the more of your picks are picked by others, the more your riders are likely to score high. I think so because of a little thing called the wisdom of the crowd. All of our picks combined should lead to a pretty objective vision of how riders are expected to perform next year (given we all know something about cycling). There are of course expections, you could be one of the few who have forseen the uprise of a certain ride. But accumulated, the higher your popularity ranking is, the more likely your riders are to do well this year in the eyes of the forum.

So I don't think it's a 'strategy' to try and find which riders will be chosen the most, and picking these to decrease the odds of scoring badly. Well, it could be a strategy, but you'd have to have some special ability to read people's minds, and it still wouldn't make you win.

I agree however that being said, I dont think the "Top Picks Team" ever made TOP 10 or even TOP 20.

Basically, you can either go with the obvious picks or you can pick riders that you like or may be somewhat unique.

 

[markene2]

138th in the popularity rankings! Oh well.. I still hope for a top 50

 

[Kazistuta]

Here is what I see, with sidepoints added for names that have had good scores in the past.

1 the_sceptic 2018
2 The Hitch 2007 -2nd all time.
3 Kazistuta 2002 - 5th all time
4 Lortnoc 1985
5 jeroenk 1975
6 Cykeltyven 1974 - 2nd last year.
7Wallenquist 1969
8 18-Valve. (pithy) 1930
9 skidmark 1929 - 1st all time. Winner 2012
10 merengues 1924

Of course none of those sidepoints has anything to do with this year. We could be the 4 worst players this year who knows.
But generally I think we usually have popular teams (mc mountain also one year had the most popular team and he is 3rd all time).
So there is a good correlation between doing well and having popular teams.

However, to win generally you need a few less popular riders too because you need them to be hits that only work for you and thus seperate you from the pack. I don't have the computer processor right now to download past cq files and see where Pentacycle, Steely Dan, skidmark and ingsve were in popularity files before their winning seasons, but I would guess it wasn't right at the top.

I think it's a fair assumption to expect a decent season with a high popularity score. As far as I recall I have always been rather high in the popularity score, and I've finished 19th,20th, 29th and 15th. This year sticks out, though, since my least popular pick is my most expensive rider, Rigoberto Uran.

That could mean two things: a) Uran failing, thus giving me my first below 50 ranking, or b)Uran living up to my expectations and finally giving me the opportunity to compete for the top spot.

I'm of course counting on the latter scenario

Right now I'm psyched that Uran was picked by so few, and my two only early-regrets is young Ludvigsson (didn't know about his operation, Ingsve) and Mohoric, both might do way better in 2016.

And btw.: It's not a calculated way for me to pick riders for these games, but since I'm also first in popularity ranking in the youth game, I obviously only know the most known riders ;-) (Or picks like the average cycling fan)

 

[Hugo87]

My Team:

RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim
CAVENDISH Mark
TALANSKY Andrew
PORTE Richie
ROELANDTS Jürgen
VOECKLER Thomas
DE MARCHI Alessandro
PHINNEY Taylor
BOASSON HAGEN Edvald
GESINK Robert
POZZATO Filippo
SEPULVEDA Eduardo
STANNARD Ian
STUYVEN Jasper
YATES Simon
ACEVEDO CALLE Janier Alexis
LE BON Johan
PIRAZZI Stefano
ENGER Sondre Holst
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
SILVESTRE Fabio Andre Tomas
MOSER Moreno
BELTRAN SUAREZ Edward Alexander
GOSS Matthew
GAUDIN Damien
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis
FLAKEMORE Campbell
DE GENDT Thomas
EWAN Caleb
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
HOOGERLAND Johnny
MORTON Lachlan

Took a big gamble at the last hour on De Marchi instead of Visconti and Enger/Pirazzi combo instead of Jungels, hope it pays off.

I'm confident that will not suck like last year's edition.

Good luck to all