Well, Sagan doesn't win again, on a stage tailored for him. In isolation, yeah he got boxed in and yeah, he was faster than anyone else in the finish, and yeah, losing 12 points and however many for the jersey isn't the biggest deal. But the trend is worrying. On the positive side, this could cause him to really try to hang in tomorrow to get the win, since he hasn't had one yet and Monday's stage will likely be a Cav-style bunch gallop. Tomorrow I think depends on how much the GC guys push it on the high mountain, the answer to which I think will be 'they're waiting for Terminillo'. So he could actually get more points from not winning today. Beyond that, the proof is really going to be in the pudding of the monuments. I'm basically betting, by picking him, that Sagan can repeat his results in most races (maybe a bit less in the TdF, and if he does well in the monuments it might give him lower placings at E3 and GW), but improve on his 10th/16th/6th in MSR/RVV/PR respectively. All it takes is for an ill-timed puncture for one of those to be out of the question, of course, but if all goes well he can top 5 each of them, I'm certain. His issue has been with winning, not with sticking with it until the end (except in Strade Bianche, of course). If that happens, he comes out maybe a hundred or a few ahead of last year. And then, he has to be a favourite for the worlds, which are in North America, which make me think the Alberta/Canadian races/Worlds might be on the menu, where he could of course pick up hundreds more. Still hopeful.