The 2015 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[Popchu]

So far happy with most of my picks chosen by very little: Quintana, Sagan, Stybar, Haussler, but I fear my team in depth isn't strong enough to compete with the best.

Anyone knows how much points (on average) you need to win / for a top 20 / top 50 / ..., or is every year different? Of course every year is different, but maybe there is a pattern.

9 riders in profit so far, my goal is to have all my riders in profit.

 

[skidmark]

Re:

So far happy with most of my picks chosen by very little: Quintana, Sagan, Stybar, Haussler, but I fear my team in depth isn't strong enough to compete with the best.

Anyone knows how much points (on average) you need to win / for a top 20 / top 50 / ..., or is every year different? Of course every year is different, but maybe there is a pattern.

9 riders in profit so far, my goal is to have all my riders in profit.

I don't have the time to look into details right now, but just from memory it tends to fluctuate depending on how well the 'obvious' picks do. In 2012, for example, scores were quite high, with popular picks like Boonen, Rogers and a bunch of others all scoring highly, bringing the average score up. That was for sure the highest year for scoring, be it top 10/20/50. Other years the most popular picks (like last year with Moser) underperform and that affects overall scores. With Cav, Porte and Ewan ripping it up so far, I'm going to wager that this year is on the higher end of things in terms of total score. If no one has any set stats, I can put something together next week showing the changes year-by-year.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Re:

9 riders in profit so far, my goal is to have all my riders in profit.

You state that as though it were a modest ambition. I am not sure that it has ever been done. I have checked the top 25 teams in the 2012 and 2013 editions, and none of them achieved this feat.

It would be easy enough to do if it were your only goal, and picked a team of zero pointers or 21 year olds in single figures, but not if you are spending anywhere near the budget.


Does anyone have final excel sheets from the first game (2011) or from last year? Thanks in advance.

 

[shalgo]

Re: Re:

Does anyone have final excel sheets from the first game (2011) or from last year? Thanks in advance.

Nobody in last year's top 10 had all of their riders in profit. The winner, Pentacycle, had 8 riders who did not achieve a profit. I didn't play in 2011, so I don't have that spreadsheet.

In 2012, my best year in this game, my worst rider was at 38% and second-worst at 66%.

 

[shalgo]

Re: Re:

In 2012, for example, scores were quite high, with popular picks like Boonen, Rogers and a bunch of others all scoring highly, bringing the average score up. That was for sure the highest year for scoring, be it top 10/20/50.

I don't know if we will ever see another year like 2012. That year had, just looking at my team:

Boonen: 502 -> 2202
LLS: 439 -> 1034
Henao: 190 -> 1136
Demare: 148 -> 845
Rogers: 137 -> 1074
Durbridge: 65 -> 693
Quintana: 60 -> 707

 

[Popchu]

Re: Re:

9 riders in profit so far, my goal is to have all my riders in profit.

You state that as though it were a modest ambition. I am not sure that it has ever been done. I have checked the top 25 teams in the 2012 and 2013 editions, and none of them achieved this feat.

It would be easy enough to do if it were your only goal, and picked a team of zero pointers or 21 year olds in single figures, but not if you are spending anywhere near the budget.


Does anyone have final excel sheets from the first game (2011) or from last year? Thanks in advance.

Wow, this surprises me, but indeed, when I have a closer look this is really difficult.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Down 19 spots

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

Does anyone have final excel sheets from the first game (2011) or from last year? Thanks in advance.

Since you are always so nice to me ...

Presenting the 2011 sheet

https://www.dropbox.com/s/jqdyussfl9q60 ... 1.xls?dl=0

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Anyone knows how much points (on average) you need to win / for a top 20 / top 50 / ..., or is every year different? Of course every year is different, but maybe there is a pattern.

The fluctuations from year to year can be wild. The best non-2012 team is Pentacycle in 2014 with 14367. That score wouldn't have cracked the top 40 in 2012. It is a bit early to predict how well this year will go. However considering that the ten best teams this year have all beaten Mellow Velo 2012 record of most points ever after P-N, ATM this year is looking to be a very high scoring one

 

[HelgeBlendet]

Well, I came here to whine about how bad my team was. Porte and Ewan are on almost every team so I didn't count their points. The Sagan stage-points add up nicely and Seb Henao is on fewer teams than I thought. Up 15 places and Top100 for the first time this year. Can't be upset with that, I guess.

Still, T-A GC looks bland with EBH in 32 as best rider. Hopefully, I can make up those points in the Classics this week.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Re: Re:

Does anyone have final excel sheets from the first game (2011) or from last year? Thanks in advance.

Since you are always so nice to me ...

Presenting the 2011 sheet

https://www.dropbox.com/s/jqdyussfl9q60 ... 1.xls?dl=0

Thank you

As I suspected, no-one (at least no-one in the top 25) that year managed a team full of improvers either.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

Thank you

As I suspected, no-one (at least no-one in the top 25) that year managed a team full of improvers either.

As you said, it is a tall order as there are always injuries and misfortunes every year and usually every year some "good" rider fails to deliver for some reason.

 

[skidmark]

Anyone knows how much points (on average) you need to win / for a top 20 / top 50 / ..., or is every year different? Of course every year is different, but maybe there is a pattern.

The fluctuations from year to year can be wild. The best non-2012 team is Pentacycle in 2014 with 14367. That score wouldn't have cracked the top 40 in 2012. It is a bit early to predict how well this year will go. However considering that the ten best teams this year have all beaten Mellow Velo 2012 record of most points ever after P-N, ATM this year is looking to be a very high scoring one

I thank you kindly for never mentioning how skewed 2012 was when posting the aggregate all-time points rankings...

 

[rote_laterne]

Thanks for the update skidmark. Even though I have Ewan, Sagan and Henao without Froome I'm amongst the highest fallers and left the top 100. Without a successful GC-contenter in Tirreno-Adriatico all my hopes are on Cavendish for MSR but then everybody has him.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Anyone knows how much points (on average) you need to win / for a top 20 / top 50 / ..., or is every year different? Of course every year is different, but maybe there is a pattern.

The fluctuations from year to year can be wild. The best non-2012 team is Pentacycle in 2014 with 14367. That score wouldn't have cracked the top 40 in 2012. It is a bit early to predict how well this year will go. However considering that the ten best teams this year have all beaten Mellow Velo 2012 record of most points ever after P-N, ATM this year is looking to be a very high scoring one

I thank you kindly for never mentioning how skewed 2012 was when posting the aggregate all-time points rankings...

Regardless of how exceptional that year was, it shouldn't take anything away from your performance. We all played with the same pool of riders, yet we were all very poor compared to you. Your team was by far the most dominant ever in the game. You won by more than 1200 points which is just insane especially since you had Offredo, the worst pick (for completely unforseeable reasons) of the year.

Besides 2012 was my best year too with a bunch of young guys just tearing the field apart :
DEMARE Arnaud 148 -> 845
BOUHANNI Nacer 136 -> 845
MOSER Moreno 78 -> 1036
DURBRIDGE Luke 65 -> 693
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 60 -> 707

It's funny that the two of those five I have picked again this year (Quintana and Moser), have had completely different career trajectory since then.

 

[postmanhat]

Thanks Skidmark!

And also to Porte, Ewan and Henao, which means I'm a non-mover at 49. Tirreno was bit of a disaster for Cavendish and Viviani, while De Marchi, Betancur and Konig were disapointing. The only bright spot was my most expensive pick Adam Yates, who finished 8th overall.

Gesink's back in action on Saturday in Holland, which I think only leaves Taylor Phinney yet to get going.

 

[diggercuz]

Start lists for this week - will update as cycling fever updates their lists...

https://www.dropbox.com/s/bhp0l0nr0lx97 ... .xlsx?dl=0

Cheers, Dig.

thought i would move up a few more places this week, but nope... still hanging tough at 113! boooo

 

[LaFlorecita]

Not much hope for this week. The Cat and Stybbles must do it for my team

 

[skidmark]

A handful of small races this week with no one in them

Nobili Rubinetterie

Latour
Mohoric
Filosi

Not a ton of hope, two neo-pros and a 20 year old 2nd year...

Handzame Classic & Zeeland Seasports - no one

Loire Atlantique
&
Pays De Loire

Gaudin
McLay
Ledanois

First race looks hillier (at least based on past winners/times)... maybe Ledanois can place top 20, but I'm not holding my breath. Second one should be a possibility for McLay, for sure, and Gaudin won it 2 years ago.

San Remo

Cavendish
Goss
Boasson Hagen
Moser
S. Yates
Sagan

Not a ton of guys, but guys that could do something... two former winners, Sagan, EBH who can still theoretically sprint after that amount of distance, and Moser and Yates, who would do well to make the last group. But yeah, it's mostly riding on Peter here.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Not much hope for this week. The Cat and Stybbles must do it for my team

Another race another top 10 for The Cat After a 6th place in Strade Bianche another 6th place today in GP Nobili for Gatto which means another 48 points for me

 

[skidmark]

Wow! Filosi got 7th, in one fell swoop going into profit with 42 points; a relatively unique pick (11 teams), hopefully this early success augurs well for the 1.1 and 1.HC races I expect Nippo to be in (although I still expect him to be second fiddle to Grosu most of the time for sprinting). If CN's report is correct (PCS only has top 10 so far), Mohoric picked up his first 10 points of the year for 16th too. And, just discovered that another rare pick (9 teams) Foliforov picked up 10 points in a 1.2 race yesterday. Dribs and drabs, but important signs for the rest of the season.

 

[postmanhat]

Was hoping Adam Blyhte might pick up some points today, but he was a DNF, as was Betancur....

For Handzame tomorrow have the following, probably in support roles

Dylan Teuns
Tanner Putt
Keirsbulck

The latter two also go in Ronde Van Zealand on Saturday

Will be cheering on Cavendish, Stannard, Yates and Boom for MSR

 

[vladimir]

Interesting line up for MSR on Sunday:
CAVENDISH Mark - previous winner and good start to season, can win but also DNF
BOASSON HAGEN Edvald - showed signs of form in Tirreno, could be top 10 (or win) but probably blows on Poggio
SENECHAL Florian - too early? anything more than 5 points for finish is a bonus
YATES Simon - same as Senechal
FELLINE Fabio - very consistent this year, could well make the final selection
OSS Daniel - good ride in Strade, but probably only 3rd choice at BMC
OFFREDO Yoann - four top twenty finishes in this race previously, another one this year?
CHIRICO Luca - good form in Langkawi but this is another planet, 5 points will be bonus
MOSER Moreno - seems better than last year but still not back to 2012/13. Happy if he finishes top 25.

At least it is nice to have 9 riders to cheer for

 

[shalgo]

72 points from Benoot and Groenewegen at Handzame--that was a nice surprise!

 

[LaFlorecita]

Classic Loire Atlantique (1.1)
-

Ronde Van Zeeland Seaports (1.1)
-

Milano-Sanremo (1.WT)
GATTO Oscar
STORTONI Simone
ROLLIN Dominique
SENECHAL Florian
VERHELST Louis
STYBAR Zdenek
JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt
MOSER Moreno
STANNARD Ian
JUUL JENSEN Christopher