The 2016 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[Pentacycle]

Just like last year I had ample time to go through all riders, which means that my team lacks some obvious picks like Phinney and Kittel. My only goal this season is to finish in the top 100 for the third year in a row. Still I'd like to present some of my rare picks.

VAKOC Peter, 330 pts, picked 7x.
Powerhouse rider that is usually committed to reeling back the breakaways for PatLef's fastmen. 28th in Pais Vasco was most impressive, and if he'd podiumed in the Tour of Britain instead of crashing, picking him now would have been a huge risk. Something about his name tells me he'll wreak havoc in 2016.

MÜHLBERGER Gregor, 202, picked 7x.
Might be a fluke, or he could be mustering GC points from Norway, to Turkey and Austria and perhaps even Switzerland. IMO a cheap young gun that is fun to follow and cheer for as well.

FENN Andrew, 43 pts, picked 5x.
Once I described this rider as a specialist in flat races < 150 kms. Unfortunately he couldn't even win those anymore at Sky... Here's to a 2016 where he reaches his OPQS form again.

VAN DER SANDE Tosh, 219 pts, picked 4x.
Enormous gamble, since Tosh tends to be inconsistent. However, his late season performance in 2015 have convinced me that he might move up the pecking order on Lotto. A few results in one-day races could already improve his score significantly.

SCHLECK Fränk, 310 pts, picked 3x.
Old but gold. He must have something left in his almost 36 year old body. Something impressive.

MARKUS Barry, 118 pts, picked 3x.
This rather dull sprinter with a horrible Amsterdammish accent has been present in all my top 100 finishes, and he'll probably get more chances to shine at Roompot as Groenenwegen's replacement.

JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt, 180 pts, picked 3x.
A good hilly sprinter, who hasn't shown much lately in noth sprinting and climbing. I don't know what's holding him back, but with a few more opportunities his score could be headed towards 500.

WISNIOWSKI Lukasz, 75 pts, picked 2x.
Like Vakoc, a pure engine of which we haven't fully understood its potential. He'll be back on Flemish road to avenge his Gent-Wevelgem crash.

No unique riders though.

Good luck everyone!

 

[LondonPat]

Great fun reading this thread - it's the time of year when all dreams are still possible!

I'm kicking myself for forgetting Gerrans so I'll be another cheering against him Forgot Demare too, all done in too much of a rush.

Stannard picked by 8 and Rowe picked by 7. I couldn't choose between them so went for both. Thinking Thomas might be focussing more on the track and these two come through in the Classics. I hesitate to say it's the year Sky win a monument because we hear that every year. Fingers crossed though...

Only 17 people chose Van Asbroeck and he scored over 1000 points in 2014 &#63

I am the only one with Nicolas Marini which was a surprise. An up and coming sprinter who can hopefully dominate some lesser races.

The way Zakarin rode in Romandie stays with me. I believe he's going for the Giro so am hopeful of a big performance there, perhaps the Vuelta too.

I went for Vanmarcke because he had some bad luck last year and is surely due a classics win. Then again, the classics might be tougher this year if Sagan raises his game and with Cancellara back. Still, with only 17 picking him he'll be a very effective winner if he comes through.

I fancy Geoghegan Hart to get lots of opportunities in the States and Kudus seems too talented not to do something this year.

Lots of other common ones so no need to comment. As ever, massive thanks to skidmark for all his work for the best fantasy game there is.

And to Squire..... I make it even money that someone who is not in your top ten comes first!

 

[LaFlorecita]

Well, I haven't really talked about my team as a whole yet - I've defended some individually, mused about others, but here's a bit of reflection.

VALGREN ANDERSEN Michael - gawd, that engine as a neo-pro was so incredible. Is it gonna come back? I dunno but I hope so.

The engine is definitely still there, he does so much great work for his leaders, he just needs some freedom to score well. I have him too, of course

 

[LondonPat]

MOHORIC Matej - I thought I was smart for not picking him his first year, which I was, and then for picking him his second, which I wasn't. Am I dumb or smart? This is the tiebreaker.

..... and don't you just hate it when you read someone else's post and think, "yeah, glad I picked him too", then realise you took him out for some reason.

 

[Jancouver]

Well, I haven't really talked about my team as a whole yet - I've defended some individually, mused about others, but here's a bit of reflection.

VAN GARDEREN Tejay - Jancouver mentioned that he might be squeezed out with Dennis and Porte, but I'm of the opposite belief. He showed in the Dauphine and for 17 days of the Tour that he's evolved into an upper echelon guy. I thought he had hit his ceiling, but 2015 made me think I'm wrong. I really think he has it in him to podium a GT.

VAN GARDEREN Tejay
When I looked at TJ, my question was: is he capable of doubling his points? At 622 cost, he would have to deliver 1244 and I just don't see the points as his best year he won the US Pro Challenge and finished 5th at the TDF.

Somehow, I don't see him repeating either and I truly dont see him raking in more than 800 points. At the 622 cost, I rather take two guys such as Vakoc 330 and Moser at 270 for the same cost hoping their combined results will outperform a pick such as TJ.

Vanmarcke
Also wanted to comment on Vanmarcke. One reason I did not consider him is because I don't think that he got the winning tactics in him. In many races, he was the strongest rider but he failed to deliver and other than 2012 Omloop where Boonen missed timed his sprint and literally led him out he was always lacking something to win races. He is almost as bad at that as Stijn VdB

Either way, with guys like Sagan, Fabian, Dagenkolb, Kristoff, Boonen, Stybar, GVA, Terpstra, Thomas and bunch of youngsters around, I just don't see him ever getting past his 2014 season where his scored 800 so the upside there is very limited for 600 investment.

Talansky
I had that guy on my team just about every year and that may be the reason I gave up on him. He is a talented rider but he is a hot headed mental patient that just can't keep his cool and that is a problem. He may do OK in some smaller US races but he will never do good in high-stress events like TdF. JV knows that and that's why he brought in Uran and Rolland. They were not hired to support Talansky, that's for sure. All in all, the Pitbull is still a better pick than a TJ at half the cost.

 

[Jspear]

Well, I haven't really talked about my team as a whole yet - I've defended some individually, mused about others, but here's a bit of reflection.

VAN GARDEREN Tejay - Jancouver mentioned that he might be squeezed out with Dennis and Porte, but I'm of the opposite belief. He showed in the Dauphine and for 17 days of the Tour that he's evolved into an upper echelon guy. I thought he had hit his ceiling, but 2015 made me think I'm wrong. I really think he has it in him to podium a GT.

VAN GARDEREN Tejay
When I looked at TJ, my question was: is he capable of doubling his points? At 622 cost, he would have to deliver 1244 and I just don't see the points as his best year he won the US Pro Challenge and finished 5th at the TDF.

Somehow, I don't see him repeating either and I truly dont see him raking in more than 800 points. At the 622 cost, I rather take two guys such as Vakoc 330 and Moser at 270 for the same cost hoping their combined results will outperform a pick such as TJ.

Vanmarcke
Also wanted to comment on Vanmarcke. One reason I did not consider him is because I don't think that he got the winning tactics in him. In many races, he was the strongest rider but he failed to deliver and other than 2012 Omloop where Boonen missed timed his sprint and literally led him out he was always lacking something to win races. He is almost as bad at that as Stijn VdB

Either way, with guys like Sagan, Fabian, Dagenkolb, Kristoff, Boonen, Stybar, GVA, Terpstra, Thomas and bunch of youngsters around, I just don't see him ever getting past his 2014 season where his scored 800 so the upside there is very limited for 600 investment.

Talansky
I had that guy on my team just about every year and that may be the reason I gave up on him. He is a talented rider but he is a hot headed mental patient that just can't keep his cool and that is a problem. He may do OK in some smaller US races but he will never do good in high-stress events like TdF. JV knows that and that's why he brought in Uran and Rolland. They were not hired to support Talansky, that's for sure. All in all, the Pitbull is still a better pick than a TJ at half the cost.

This is why I picked him. Surely he's bound to make an okay profit. Hopefully he stays healthy...he should be able to nearly double his score. I know he's never been a higher CQ scorer, but he needs to start now if he wants to keep a high position in team hierarchy.

 

[skidmark]

STUYVEN Jasper - made some progress last year despite not being put in the classics by his team, which is the dumbest thing ever. Hopefully this year they understand better.

What do you mean with this? He crashed in Strade Bianche, he was uncertain after that for the rest of his classic campaign, so he had to reschedule a bit in order to be as good as possible for Vlaanderen / Roubaix. In the first race he had an off-day, still finishing 32nd, and in Roubaix he had a flat tire.

This year his classic campaign is Omloop, Kuurne, Strade, Dwars door Vlaanderen, Harelbeke, Vlaanderen, Roubaix.

In my opinion he can score easily +500 points.

Well that solves a mystery for me. I thought I was following him closely last year, and I didn't see any press about his crash in SB, but then I saw him popping up in Catalunya instead of Dwars Door Vlaanderen/E3/G-W and just couldn't understand it at all. I still kind of don't - he did Nokere Korese after his crash, but then went to Catalunya, so it's not like he couldn't race, but maybe they thought he needed those race days in his legs? I just thought that as a second year pro, he could be a good backup plan (and, as it turned out, they needed that since Fabian crashed) for the three races mentioned above, but wouldn't yet have the ability to be much help in the longer RVV and P-R. So their decision to only use him in those races seemed inexplicable. But I guess when you're running a team like Trek, you want to win the big ones, and it's kind of like all hands on deck, so I sort of get it. Anyway, I'm sure he'll do well this year if he stays upright.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

MÜHLBERGER Gregor, 202, picked 7x.
Might be a fluke, or he could be mustering GC points from Norway, to Turkey and Austria and perhaps even Switzerland. IMO a cheap young gun that is fun to follow and cheer for as well.

Mühlberger is one of the few very young riders I know something about (obviously because I'm Austrian) but I just didnt want to pick him because I have a very bad experience with young Austrian riders. Since the Kohl incident in 2008 the Austrian media tends to overhype any new cycling hopes but at the end they aren't almost as good as many people hoped.
-Rohregger won the Tour of Austria and then only won one single thing in the rest of his career (mountain jersey down under)
-Denifl is a young Austrian climber who actually became pretty good with a 7th place in Paris Nice gc and the mountains jersey in Suisse last year. Still not as good as the media expected
-Zoidl seemed extremely talented in 2013 (he won the European Tour gc!). But since he went to Trek he hasn't won anything and also didnt seem very promising in 2015
Now Mühlberger is the 4th young rider everyone in Austria expects to become a world class rider and although I also think he has the potential I just have a bad feeling
btw, riders like Brändle and Haller weren't in the Austrian media at all before they won their first races.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

MÜHLBERGER Gregor, 202, picked 7x.
Might be a fluke, or he could be mustering GC points from Norway, to Turkey and Austria and perhaps even Switzerland. IMO a cheap young gun that is fun to follow and cheer for as well.

Mühlberger is one of the few very young riders I know something about (obviously because I'm Austrian) but I just didnt want to pick him because I have a very bad experience with young Austrian riders. Since the Kohl incident in 2008 the Austrian media tends to overhype any new cycling hopes but at the end they aren't almost as good as many people hoped.
-Rohregger won the Tour of Austria and then only won one single thing in the rest of his career (mountain jersey down under)
-Denifl is a young Austrian climber who actually became pretty good with a 7th place in Paris Nice gc and the mountains jersey in Suisse last year. Still not as good as the media expected
-Zoidl seemed extremely talented in 2013 (he won the European Tour gc!). But since he went to Trek he hasn't won anything and also didnt seem very promising in 2015
Now Mühlberger is the 4th young rider everyone in Austria expects to become a world class rider and although I also think he has the potential I just have a bad feeling
btw, riders like Brändle and Haller weren't in the Austrian media at all before they won their first races.

But isn't Mühlberger just insanely more talented than all of those combined? In my opinion he's one of the biggest talents out there, and easily the biggest talent that hasn't taken the step up to WT yet (OK, Mareczko is quite good as well).

 

[skidmark]

Catching up on the thread, a couple of comments:

- Pentacycle, good to see you picked Tosh van der Sande. His late season performances stuck out in my mind too, as he was such a hyped talent coming into his neo year and has been completely anonymous since. It seems like he took a step up at the end of last year, and indeed could really bust out this year if it was more than just a blip. But, my team selection process is such that I comb over it again and again, which makes the end product pretty risk averse as one of those times looking over it I'm bound to think 'I don't want to take the chance that it was just a fluke' and eliminate him from consideration. Anyway, hope that pick turns out well for you.

- Flo, my fear with Valgren is that once Tinkov took over the team he kind of sidelined the Danes, I feel, to maybe distance himself from Riis' past. It's no accident that four Danes left the team this year and only Valgren and Hansen are left. I'm thinking that with Valgren being so talented it would be a waste not to use that talent for his own results, but Tinkov is weird. I know he doesn't make the direct sporting decisions so much, but I feel there's something to that idea.

- Jan, I think I'll just have to agree to disagree about Tejay. I dunno, you were saying his best year was 'just' doing well in the Tour and USA PCC, but he also podiumed Oman and Catalunya, and finished 6th in Pais Vasco. He can make up the points in lots of places. But even aside from that, I guess I just read his performances differently than you last year, as I was really surprised by the Dauphine and the Tour. It seemed like he really broke through to be a top echelon guy. Anyway, I get why you would skip him since you have a different team strategy anyway, but I'm pretty sure if he stays healthy he gets >800 points.

I agree with you about Vanmarcke though.

 

[fauniera]

@ Gigs

Rohregger won the Tour of Austria when he was 25. Zoidl had his big year when he was 25. Both went to international teams only after these succesful years, which is very late. Mühlberger has shown much more promise in the U23 class than any of those two (or Denifl) and is going pro at the more normal age of 21 (22 in April). I think he has much more potential than the other riders you mentioned.

 

[Popchu]

Well that solves a mystery for me. I thought I was following him closely last year, and I didn't see any press about his crash in SB, but then I saw him popping up in Catalunya instead of Dwars Door Vlaanderen/E3/G-W and just couldn't understand it at all. I still kind of don't - he did Nokere Korese after his crash, but then went to Catalunya, so it's not like he couldn't race, but maybe they thought he needed those race days in his legs? I just thought that as a second year pro, he could be a good backup plan (and, as it turned out, they needed that since Fabian crashed) for the three races mentioned above, but wouldn't yet have the ability to be much help in the longer RVV and P-R. So their decision to only use him in those races seemed inexplicable. But I guess when you're running a team like Trek, you want to win the big ones, and it's kind of like all hands on deck, so I sort of get it. Anyway, I'm sure he'll do well this year if he stays upright.

It was a strange build-up to the classics indeed, but as you say he needed those race days after he missed Tirreno due to his crash in Strade Bianche. Normally he was also at the Tour-team, but he had some problems with his back so he missed the Tour. And after his stage victory in the Vuelta, he had to DNF because of an other injury. Quite unlucky last year.

 

[Jancouver]

Catching up on the thread, a couple of comments:

- Pentacycle, good to see you picked Tosh van der Sande. His late season performances stuck out in my mind too, as he was such a hyped talent coming into his neo year and has been completely anonymous since. It seems like he took a step up at the end of last year, and indeed could really bust out this year if it was more than just a blip. But, my team selection process is such that I comb over it again and again, which makes the end product pretty risk averse as one of those times looking over it I'm bound to think 'I don't want to take the chance that it was just a fluke' and eliminate him from consideration. Anyway, hope that pick turns out well for you.

- Flo, my fear with Valgren is that once Tinkov took over the team he kind of sidelined the Danes, I feel, to maybe distance himself from Riis' past. It's no accident that four Danes left the team this year and only Valgren and Hansen are left. I'm thinking that with Valgren being so talented it would be a waste not to use that talent for his own results, but Tinkov is weird. I know he doesn't make the direct sporting decisions so much, but I feel there's something to that idea.

- Jan, I think I'll just have to agree to disagree about Tejay. I dunno, you were saying his best year was 'just' doing well in the Tour and USA PCC, but he also podiumed Oman and Catalunya, and finished 6th in Pais Vasco. He can make up the points in lots of places. But even aside from that, I guess I just read his performances differently than you last year, as I was really surprised by the Dauphine and the Tour. It seemed like he really broke through to be a top echelon guy. Anyway, I get why you would skip him since you have a different team strategy anyway, but I'm pretty sure if he stays healthy he gets >800 points.

I agree with you about Vanmarcke though.

Dont get me wrong, I have nothing against TJ and other than this game, I hope that he will do well! As I even said few weeks back in the Porte thread, I will take TJ over Porte for a 3-week long race every time! He is a solid Top10 GT contender but I think that he is missing the top edge to be fighting for a GT podium. I'm not sure what the BMC plans are, but he got no chance at the Giro (will most likely be doing the US races anyway) and no chance at the Tour. So what is there left for him as Porte and Dennis will lead the 1 week races for BMC?

 

[jaylew]

Catching up on the thread, a couple of comments:

- Jan, I think I'll just have to agree to disagree about Tejay. I dunno, you were saying his best year was 'just' doing well in the Tour and USA PCC, but he also podiumed Oman and Catalunya, and finished 6th in Pais Vasco. He can make up the points in lots of places. But even aside from that, I guess I just read his performances differently than you last year, as I was really surprised by the Dauphine and the Tour. It seemed like he really broke through to be a top echelon guy. Anyway, I get why you would skip him since you have a different team strategy anyway, but I'm pretty sure if he stays healthy he gets >800 points.

Dont get me wrong, I have nothing against TJ and other than this game, I hope that he will do well! As I even said few weeks back in the Porte thread, I will take TJ over Porte for a 3-week long race every time! He is a solid Top10 GT contender but I think that he is missing the top edge to be fighting for a GT podium. I'm not sure what the BMC plans are, but he got no chance at the Giro (will most likely be doing the US races anyway) and no chance at the Tour. So what is there left for him as Porte and Dennis will lead the 1 week races for BMC?

I think the key here is your faith in Dennis, which most don't seem to share. I don't think Dennis will be leading many 1 week races over TJ, if any at all. I'm not sure why he can't score over 800, as he was over 1000 3 years straight. And there are plenty 1 week races on the calendar to share which he did during those 3 years with Cadel.

Talansky
I had that guy on my team just about every year and that may be the reason I gave up on him. He is a talented rider but he is a hot headed mental patient that just can't keep his cool and that is a problem. He may do OK in some smaller US races but he will never do good in high-stress events like TdF. JV knows that and that's why he brought in Uran and Rolland. They were not hired to support Talansky, that's for sure. All in all, the Pitbull is still a better pick than a TJ at half the cost.

Thing is, those are the races where he performs, not the US races. Paris-Nice, Dauphiné, CI, Catalunya, Romandie...those are the SRs he's scored well in. He rarely even participates in the US races.

I'm in lock step with you on Vanmarcke. He'd have to actually start winning some big races instead of finishing top 5 or 10 and with all the talent out there in his races, it's a big gamble.

On another note, I'll admit to being rather ignorant about Stuyven. He was the only one of the more popular picks that I didn't understand and had to go look up. For some reason I just didn't know anything about the guy.

 

[PeterB]

Dont get me wrong, I have nothing against TJ and other than this game, I hope that he will do well! As I even said few weeks back in the Porte thread, I will take TJ over Porte for a 3-week long race every time! He is a solid Top10 GT contender but I think that he is missing the top edge to be fighting for a GT podium. I'm not sure what the BMC plans are, but he got no chance at the Giro (will most likely be doing the US races anyway) and no chance at the Tour. So what is there left for him as Porte and Dennis will lead the 1 week races for BMC?

TJ accumulated 500 or more points before the start of the TDF in each of the previous three years. Which is only slightly below his cost this year.

Regarding his plans, he said: " I’m going to have a later start with some Spanish races [Andalucia, no Oman this year]. I’ll do Tirreno but then we’ll link up [with Porte] at Catalunya and Romandie. Then we’ll do the Tour together." Plus he will hopefully do Tour of Cali, or something else before the TDF. All in all, many opportunities to score, if he stays fit.

Nevertheless, he is in so many teams that he is almost unimportant for the game. I wonder who the riders are that teams have instead if they don't have him. It's probably diversity of various alternative ways of spending those points. But I do not think there is much better and at the same time safer way of spending your budget than him. You spent those money on Bonifazio, so it is TJ against Bonifazio for you! We can look back at the year-end which one was better pick

 

[Jancouver]

Dont get me wrong, I have nothing against TJ and other than this game, I hope that he will do well! As I even said few weeks back in the Porte thread, I will take TJ over Porte for a 3-week long race every time! He is a solid Top10 GT contender but I think that he is missing the top edge to be fighting for a GT podium. I'm not sure what the BMC plans are, but he got no chance at the Giro (will most likely be doing the US races anyway) and no chance at the Tour. So what is there left for him as Porte and Dennis will lead the 1 week races for BMC?

TJ accumulated 500 or more points before the start of the TDF in each of the previous three years. Which is only slightly below his cost this year.

Regarding his plans, he said: " I’m going to have a later start with some Spanish races [Andalucia, no Oman this year]. I’ll do Tirreno but then we’ll link up [with Porte] at Catalunya and Romandie. Then we’ll do the Tour together." Plus he will hopefully do Tour of Cali, or something else before the TDF. All in all, many opportunities to score, if he stays fit.

Nevertheless, he is in so many teams that he is almost unimportant for the game. I wonder who the riders are that teams have instead if they don't have him. It's probably diversity of various alternative ways of spending those points. But I do not think there is much better and at the same time safer way of spending your budget than him. You spent those money on Bonifazio, so it is TJ against Bonifazio for you! We can look back at the year-end which one was better pick

TJ vs Bonifazio, I like it! Actually, the main reason I took Bonifazio was because I wanted a few "not-so-common" picks, therefore, Dennis and Bonifazio. It was clear that at this higher cost, there will be a very few takers.

BTW I had Bonifazio on my watch list for a while and decided to include him immediately when I heard Pippo talking about him last year as the biggest talent on Lampre and maybe even in Italy.

I can already see it how Cancellara is leading out Bonifazio at MSR for the win

 

[Squire]

Well, I haven't really talked about my team as a whole yet - I've defended some individually, mused about others, but here's a bit of reflection.

VAN GARDEREN Tejay - Jancouver mentioned that he might be squeezed out with Dennis and Porte, but I'm of the opposite belief. He showed in the Dauphine and for 17 days of the Tour that he's evolved into an upper echelon guy. I thought he had hit his ceiling, but 2015 made me think I'm wrong. I really think he has it in him to podium a GT.

VAN GARDEREN Tejay
When I looked at TJ, my question was: is he capable of doubling his points? At 622 cost, he would have to deliver 1244 and I just don't see the points as his best year he won the US Pro Challenge and finished 5th at the TDF.

Somehow, I don't see him repeating either and I truly dont see him raking in more than 800 points. At the 622 cost, I rather take two guys such as Vakoc 330 and Moser at 270 for the same cost hoping their combined results will outperform a pick such as TJ.

<snip>

The idea that a rider has to double his points is a myth, even in that price range. You have to look at what a rider (or combination of riders) can do for your team compared to any other rider or combination of riders at the same price. Hard points is what you're looking for, not percentages.

Let me illustrate with an example. You say you'd rather have Vakoc and Moser. That's 599 points. Van Garderen is 622. Let's take Talansky instead of Moser, so we're at 660. They're two riders, so Van Garderen needs a wingman. Let's add Dominik Nerz, a rather average cheap pick.

Van Garderen has shown in the past that he's a consistent 1000 point scorer, and this year you're paying the price of half a season for the return of a whole season. And he showed pretty clearly he's able to score points after the Dauphiné last year. My argument is that TVG would be a great pick if he scores 1000 points. But he doesn't even need to score 1000. At 850, he'd still be a decent pick. Factor in Nerz, who is a pretty solid bet for at least 200-300, and you're looking at something like 1200 points for this combination.

Talansky? Let's say he repeats his best season at 750. Vakoc? Young and unproven, but he can reach 600 with a very good year, I guess. Now they've outscored TVG. That's 1350 total, optimistic scenario.

Now, who do you trust more to reach the target we set for them? Very few riders in TVGs price range or below will actually end up scoring 1000 points. TVG is one of the absolutely most likely to do so. Talansky, as you said, has questions about his mental toughness. Vakoc is in a stacked team, admittedly very talented but unproven. I'd take the TVG combination any day. The chance of hitting any combination that outscores TVG is lower than the probability for TVG to get that points target. If you constantly make decisions like the TVG/Nerz pick, your probability of winning is in my opinion a lot higher than the Vakoc/Talansky type picks.

All of this may not be your preferred criteria of selecting riders of course, and I admire your hail mary team, as I said earlier.

My team would be Team Sky, with it's scientific approach, and you are, well, how about Mercatone Uno? If you end up winning, you'd definitely be a more exciting winner than if I won.

 

[Jancouver]

Well, I haven't really talked about my team as a whole yet - I've defended some individually, mused about others, but here's a bit of reflection.

VAN GARDEREN Tejay - Jancouver mentioned that he might be squeezed out with Dennis and Porte, but I'm of the opposite belief. He showed in the Dauphine and for 17 days of the Tour that he's evolved into an upper echelon guy. I thought he had hit his ceiling, but 2015 made me think I'm wrong. I really think he has it in him to podium a GT.

VAN GARDEREN Tejay
When I looked at TJ, my question was: is he capable of doubling his points? At 622 cost, he would have to deliver 1244 and I just don't see the points as his best year he won the US Pro Challenge and finished 5th at the TDF.

Somehow, I don't see him repeating either and I truly dont see him raking in more than 800 points. At the 622 cost, I rather take two guys such as Vakoc 330 and Moser at 270 for the same cost hoping their combined results will outperform a pick such as TJ.

<snip>

The idea that a rider has to double his points is a myth, even in that price range. You have to look at what a rider (or combination of riders) can do for your team compared to any other rider or combination of riders at the same price. Hard points is what you're looking for, not percentages.

Let me illustrate with an example. You say you'd rather have Vakoc and Moser. That's 599 points. Van Garderen is 622. Let's take Talansky instead of Moser, so we're at 660. They're two riders, so Van Garderen needs a wingman. Let's add Dominik Nerz, a rather average cheap pick.

Van Garderen has shown in the past that he's a consistent 1000 point scorer, and this year you're paying the price of half a season for the return of a whole season. And he showed pretty clearly he's able to score points after the Dauphiné last year. My argument is that TVG would be a great pick if he scores 1000 points. But he doesn't even need to score 1000. At 850, he'd still be a decent pick. Factor in Nerz, who is a pretty solid bet for at least 200-300, and you're looking at something like 1200 points for this combination.

Talansky? Let's say he repeats his best season at 750. Vakoc? Young and unproven, but he can reach 600 with a very good year, I guess. Now they've outscored TVG. That's 1350 total, optimistic scenario.

Now, who do you trust more to reach the target we set for them? Very few riders in TVGs price range or below will actually end up scoring 1000 points. TVG is one of the absolutely most likely to do so. Talansky, as you said, has questions about his mental toughness. Vakoc is in a stacked team, admittedly very talented but unproven. I'd take the TVG combination any day. The chance of hitting any combination that outscores TVG is lower than the probability for TVG to get that points target. If you constantly make decisions like the TVG/Nerz pick, your probability of winning is in my opinion a lot higher than the Vakoc/Talansky type picks.

All of this may not be your preferred criteria of selecting riders of course, and I admire your hail mary team, as I said earlier.

My team would be Team Sky, with it's scientific approach, and you are, well, how about Mercatone Uno? If you end up winning, you'd definitely be a more exciting winner than if I won.

While doubling the points may be a myth, in reality, you need to get somehow from 7500 to 15K (or more). Percentage wise, going from 622 to 800 is not a great investment and 800 are my expectations for TJ this year. Sure, he can score 1500 or even 2000 and he may be an excellent pick and I would be happy for him and everyone who got this guy.

I always do leave out a bunch of obvious picks which is not a good game strategy, but perhaps as you said, I rather have a "real" team I can be cheering for than having a team full of "must-have" riders. It is already enough that I had to include Fatancur and Gerrans just because they are those "must-have" riders. With TJ, I just didn't feel that he falls into that must-have category, and the only rider that may have been in that category is Lopez that I left out because he is on Astana. I just think the Astana issue is not over and I don't want to have any rider that may be affected by the UCI/WADA politics.

The rule in sports betting is that you never bet on "your" team because it hurts twice. Sometimes, it is even better to bet against your team as that is a win-win situation. If your team lose, you win money, if your team wins, you are happy about the win, and you don't care as much about the financial loss. Similarly to sport betting, sometimes I do not take riders I like because I don't want to be disappointed twice or just because sometimes it is better if you don't step into the same river twice.

 

[laarsland]

Catching up on the thread, a couple of comments:

- Flo, my fear with Valgren is that once Tinkov took over the team he kind of sidelined the Danes, I feel, to maybe distance himself from Riis' past. It's no accident that four Danes left the team this year and only Valgren and Hansen are left. I'm thinking that with Valgren being so talented it would be a waste not to use that talent for his own results, but Tinkov is weird. I know he doesn't make the direct sporting decisions so much, but I feel there's something to that idea.

I think we'll see Gougeard build on his form from the latter part of last season in 2016 and become the rider Valgren should've been by now - but instead he's cannon fodder.

 

[Tigerion]

And it looks like the first bad news of the season goes to l29213 with their unique pick Ben King breaking his leg in training

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re:

And it looks like the first bad news of the season goes to l29213 with their unique pick Ben King breaking his leg in training

That is the third piece of bad news this season: the first was that Alex Peters is one person, not two (L29213 had named him twice), the second is Mick Rogers out indefinitely with an unspecified heart condition (a unique pick for, guess who, L29213)

 

[armchairclimber]

Re: Re:

And it looks like the first bad news of the season goes to l29213 with their unique pick Ben King breaking his leg in training

That is the third piece of bad news this season: the first was that Alex Peters is one person, not two (L29213 had named him twice), the second is Mick Rogers out indefinitely with an unspecified heart condition (a unique pick for, guess who, L29213)

Looks like L29213 is making a cheeky bid for my "class clown" mantle.

 

[Squire]

Re: Re:

And it looks like the first bad news of the season goes to l29213 with their unique pick Ben King breaking his leg in training

That is the third piece of bad news this season: the first was that Alex Peters is one person, not two (L29213 had named him twice), the second is Mick Rogers out indefinitely with an unspecified heart condition (a unique pick for, guess who, L29213)

This made me think of the user Nyssinator, who in the 2012 game had the rather expensive picks Jack Bobridge & Peter Kennaugh score 0 points because of track focus, and Yoann Offredo busted for doping early in the season. That meant a return of 7 points for a cost of 963. Nyssinator still finished 3rd with the 3rd highest score of all time in the CQ game

 

[skidmark]

Re: Re:

And it looks like the first bad news of the season goes to l29213 with their unique pick Ben King breaking his leg in training

That is the third piece of bad news this season: the first was that Alex Peters is one person, not two (L29213 had named him twice), the second is Mick Rogers out indefinitely with an unspecified heart condition (a unique pick for, guess who, L29213)

This made me think of the user Nyssinator, who in the 2012 game had the rather expensive picks Jack Bobridge & Peter Kennaugh score 0 points because of track focus, and Yoann Offredo busted for doping early in the season. That meant a return of 7 points for a cost of 963. Nyssinator still finished 3rd with the 3rd highest score of all time in the CQ game

Yeah, when Offredo got banned like a day into the 2012 game, I was like 'dammit, after Ricco last year, I'm already dead in the water before the season begins'! All this is to say that it's a long season and we've all got a lot of riders to follow.

That said, some bad fortune to start the season, sorry l29213.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re: Re:

And it looks like the first bad news of the season goes to l29213 with their unique pick Ben King breaking his leg in training

That is the third piece of bad news this season: the first was that Alex Peters is one person, not two (L29213 had named him twice), the second is Mick Rogers out indefinitely with an unspecified heart condition (a unique pick for, guess who, L29213)

This made me think of the user Nyssinator, who in the 2012 game had the rather expensive picks Jack Bobridge & Peter Kennaugh score 0 points because of track focus, and Yoann Offredo busted for doping early in the season. That meant a return of 7 points for a cost of 963. Nyssinator still finished 3rd with the 3rd highest score of all time in the CQ game

This game has historians?!!? How long before it becomes a specialist round on Mastermind?