The 2016 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[Squire]

Now, the big question is; can we beat 2012, the year the CQ stars aligned? There are reasons both for and against, but the main reason why I think it won't happen is this: Some quite major points were scored in WT stage races that year, while this year we have a lot of unpicked top GC riders who are likely to take away many top five/ten spots. On the other hand, this year we have some popular established riders who are looking very likely to bring in a huge amount of points: Cancellara, Kittel, Gerrans, Demare etc. This means we don't need the crazy amount of insanely profitable, cheap and popular riders of 2012. Just a couple of those unexpected 800-1000 pointers for a lucky team could be enough to tip the balance if the big guys continue like they've started. But as I mentioned, I still think it's unlikely, and the 2015 score is a much more attainable target for this year's winner.

I don't think anybody will come close to skidmark 2012 team. We're already off the pace of that year (albeit only slightly) and that's before taking into account Boonen absurdly good haul from the flemish classics (Cancellara will offset some of that this year but no way is he getting the clean sweep like Boonen did). Maybe if the top team this year is still close after PR, I'll start believing (though skidmark had an very strong finish to the season so even then it's not a given) it might happen.
Sure, established popular riders seem to do well for the moment but so did Rogers/LLS and a couple others back then. Good luck trying to find riders as profitable as Moser/Demare/Durbridge/Quintana in 2012. Iglinskiy was super cheap too and he won a monument.
The one advantage that people have this year is that they don't have a sunk cost like Offredo.

As I said, I don't really believe it will be done this year, but...

I would actually say we're ahead of 2012 at the moment. The current 10th place leads the 2012 10th place by 274 points. 24 teams lead skidmark's 2012 post-MSR score. If the 2012 record shall be broken, it won't be by Pentacycle. Whoever wants to do it need at least 1200+ Kittel points.

As shalgo says, it's an Olympic year again, too (I forgot to mention that). In 2012, only Phinney scored major points in the Olympics for the CQ game. His haul is likely to be beaten for most teams in the time trial alone, by Martin, Cancellara, Phinney again etc. If the stars align again, and we get a D.Martin/Gerrans/Nibali Olympic RR podium and a Kittel/Demare/Gaviria Worlds podium, I could maybe see it happening. But it would take something like that to help offset Costa's Tour de Suisse win, Moser's Pologne win, Boonen's classic cleansweep and crazy things like skidmark having all riders from 2nd-6th overall in Romandie.

But hey, the real challenge is also having this year's Henao (190 to 1136pts), Moser (78 to 1036pts), Rogers (137 to 1074pts), Demare (148 to 849pts), Durbridge (65 to 693pts) or Quintana (60 to 707pts, not in skidmark's team). Most years we don't even have that many crazy leaps in CQ points among all riders and not just those picked for the game. Also, some of the neo-pros that could conceivably do it are somewhat priced out of the game, like Kragh Andersen, Petilli, Bevin, or riding for the wrong team, like Moscon.

Another sobering thought is that the 2012 winner had seven riders among the top 30 in the end-of-the-year CQ rankings, all of them scoring more than 1000 points. Several of them were so cheap that they didn't take away places in the team for other expensive riders to guarantee good points as well.

Maybe next year with the 1000 or so extra Degenkolb points and the freeing up of tons of Cancellara & Contador (and possibly others) points.

 

[uspostal]

Maybe on point or maybe not, what is the number of new players, the numbers of players, and the experience of the players. All of these would affect the point total. Maybe a better measuring point would be the average score of all the players 2012 compared to this year. I'm not a numbers expert just thought I'd throw my .02 worth in.

 

[Squire]

Re:

Maybe on point or maybe not, what is the number of new players, the numbers of players, and the experience of the players. All of these would affect the point total. Maybe a better measuring point would be the average score of all the players 2012 compared to this year. I'm not a numbers expert just thought I'd throw my .02 worth in.

I'd say the experience of most players is definitely better this year. Remember, 2012 was only the second ever edition of the game, and even though some players have fallen away, the overall experience and knowledge of how the game works must be a lot higher now. Number of players is only slightly higher this year.

My analysis wasn't a very in-depth one, and I can't really be bothered to do the work needed to compare averages etc. I still believe the comparison of the 10th spot is at least a little bit significant though, after all, skidmark was in the top 10 already in March (ominous for this year ). I got the info from Hugo's update in the thread, so 1st-10th are all I know.

Some good results for me (and plenty others) today! Pippo continuing to look awesome in Flanders, Gaviria in profit, and a win and leader's jersey (love those extra points) for the most popular Martin in Catalunya. Hope the Irishman can hang on for a good place overall, too. There's always TJVG in 4th anyway, and didn't Vervaeke look great on the attack? I'm just a bit worried he's overdoing the crazy attacks, but that's the kind of spirit that could randomly win him a stage race he wasn't tipped for (went really close in the Three Days of West-Flanders). I'm very impressed by Bauhaus in DDW too, looked really strong, but if you had such a good day, couldn't you please just wait for a sprint, dear Phil?

Also good news for those who stuck with Küng. Scored points in his first race back from mono! Only bad news is that the pesky Petit continues to rack up points.

 

[del1962]

I see Dan Martin's win in Catalunya doesn't rack up similar points to a win in Paris Nice

 

[LaFlorecita]

74 points from 1 stage.. hoping for more of the same tomorrow

 

[jsem94]

With the amount of research I did and the amount of thinking and tinkering, me being in the bottom half is really embarrassing. I suck ar this.

 

[the asian]

Re:

I see Dan Martin's win in Catalunya doesn't rack up similar points to a win in Paris Nice

PN, TA, Pais Vasco, Dauphine and Swiss are higher rated World Tour Stage races than the others, so they carry more points.

 

[GP Blanco]

This weekend.

E3 Harelbeke
MARTIN Tony
LUTSENKO Alexey
LANGEVELD Sebastian
MULLEN Ryan
DEMARE Arnaud
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
MEZGEC Luka

Langeveld and Démare for a minor top ten placing.

Critérium International
PERAUD Jean Christophe
HERKLOTZ Silvio
NERZ Dominik
KÄMNA Lennard

Peraud and Nerz for a top ten.

Gent - Wevelgem
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
MARTIN Tony
PHINNEY Taylor
LUTSENKO Alexey
LANGEVELD Sebastian
DEMARE Arnaud
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
MEZGEC Luka

Démare, Gaviria and hopefully Mezgec when it comes to a sprint.

 

[Gigs_98]

My lineup for the weekend:

E3 Harelbeke:
MARTIN Tony
DEMARE Arnaud
BETANCUR Carlos
RENSHAW Mark
KWIATKOWSKI Michal
CANCELLARA Fabian

Cancellara is one of the favorites so I expect points from him. However he is a very common pick so I rather have to hope for guys like Martin, Demare and maybe Kwiatkowski.

Criterium International:
KADRI Blel
GAUTIER Cyril
FEILLU Brice
NERZ Dominik
DENIFL Stefan
KRIZEK Matthias

If I'm lucky there are a few riders who could make a few points but I don't expect a lot.

Gent-Wevelgem:
MARTIN Tony
ZABEL Rick
CANCELLARA Fabian
RENSHAW Mark
DEMARE Arnaud
BETANCUR Carlos

Same team just with Zabel instead of Kwiatkowski. However the situation is completely different since Cancellara is less likely to win this race and I don't have Gaviria who might make many points.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Huge win by Kwiatkowski today. That should offset some of the points most people will get from van Garderen/Martin.

 

[Squire]

Huge win by Kwiatkowski today. That should offset some of the points most people will get from van Garderen/Martin.

Or, as is the case with Hugo in 20th, add to them

I think Nicosix in 2nd is in for a good week as well, with almost the whole top 10 of E3 plus Van Garderen. Especially if Coppel does well in Criterium International.

With no Martin, Van Garderen or Kwiatkowski, it seems Pentacycle will have to wave goodbye to his leader's jersey.

 

[skidmark]

Well, it's been an okay week so far. Chavanel has missed two points-scoring races because of illness, but I've got my hopes he can do a good De Panne and Ronde still. Canc and Stuyven in 4th and 5th isn't bad at E3 (actually, if Canc had stayed in the front group he probably would have forced a smaller selection off the front and Stuyven wouldn't have hung onto the 2nd group with no incentive to help his teammate, so the mechanical might have been a net positive for me), and of course Martin and TJVG in 4th and 5th in Catalunya is pretty good, even if all those guys (bar Stuyven) are among the most popular. But it's the almosts in Catalunya that are doing me in - Formolo in 15th is good, but 30 points or so is much less than finishing 5 places higher. Vervaeke's 20th is encouraging for future races, but not many points in itself. Barguil having a top 25 is better than I expected from his return, but still only a handful of points. Same with Kudus. If these are markers for future performances, then great, but I need more from those guys at some point.

For the weekend:

Criterium International

Silvio Herklotz
Lawson Craddock
Lennard Kamna
Yannick Martinez
Matt Goss

Not exactly the most inspiring group, although this is the kind of race Craddock could do well in. Herklotz hasn't shown he's ready for prime time at all, I'm curious to see what the 19-year old Kamna can do in the TT, and Martinez/Goss have shown nothing and were my 2 cheapest picks.

Gent-Wevelgem

Fernando Gaviria
Tony Martin
Taylor Phinney
Fabian Cancellara
Arnaud Demare
Sondre Holst Enger
Carlos Betancur
Magnus Cort
Sylvain Chavanel
Adrien Petit

Hard to look past Gaviria and Demare as favourites here. Cancellara and, to a lesser extent Chavanel, could come into play if a group gets away, but more often than not it comes back for a sprint and with Gaviria and Griepel in the field, there are two strong teams that will be looking to do just that. Enger and Cort are perhaps too inexperienced and down the depth chart to sprint for it unless something happens to Haussler and Keukeleire on their respective teams; Phinney and Petit could finish top 10 in a reduced sprint for sure. But yeah, really it seems to me like Gav and Demare are the best bets by far.

The real question is - will Betancur get his first points of the season?

 

[Nicosix]

What a huge result today in Harelbeke!

Kwiatkowski 1st
Cancellara 4th
Stuyven 5th
Boom 6th
Benoot 7th

Whooohoo!

And with Jeannesson and Coppel in Corsica, it could go well there too

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

What a huge result today in Harelbeke!

Kwiatkowski 1st
Cancellara 4th
Stuyven 5th
Boom 6th
Benoot 7th

Whooohoo!

And with Jeannesson and Coppel in Corsica, it could go well there too

Wow, that's insane I only had Cancellara in the top 30.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Well, the Critérium International went just about as well as it could for my team considering Pinot was far better than everybody else : Latour 2nd, Oomen 3rd and Jeannesson 4th

 

[LaFlorecita]

2nd, 3rd and 5th in Catalunya, 4th, 6th and 7th in Crit Int and 4th, 5th and 6th in Gent-Wevelgem - a good day

 

[LaFlorecita]

Volta a Catalunya
Contador 203
Martin 184
Van Garderen 118
Meersman 27
Gerrans 13
Zaugg 5
Total 550

Dwars door Vlaanderen
Gaviria 26
Total 26

E3 Harelbeke
Cancellara 96
Demare 5
Total 101

Gent-Wevelgem
Cancellara 96
Demare 86
Gaviria 76
Phinney 5
Total 263

Critérium International
Jeannesson 94
Craddock 68
Nerz 62
Dassonville 6
Venturini 5
Total 235

Grand Total 1175

 

[vladimir]

It will be very interesting to see the scores for this week tomorrow or whenever they are posted. I think I had a decent week, but missing the winners and Kelderman sick in Catalunya hurt me. Still over a 1000 points, so I hope I can climb a few places...
Also very happy that all my four cheapest riders in the game scored real GC points this week

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

KWIATKOWSKI Michal 220
CANCELLARA Fabian 192
LATOUR Pierre 135
OOMEN Sam 103
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 102
COQUARD Bryan 99
JEANNESSON Arnold 94
DEMARE Arnaud 91
FORMOLO Davide 34
MEERSMAN Gianni 27
PERAUD Jean-Christophe 17
GERRANS Simon 16
KUDUS GHEBREMEDHIN Merhawi 16
BARGUIL Warren 14
FARRAR Tyler 10
PHINNEY Taylor 5
SENECHAL Florian 5
TEN DAM Laurens 5
DI GREGORIO Rémy 5
ZAUGG Oliver 5

Total 1190
Not bad for a non-GT week.

 

[HelgeBlendet]

Had a good week as well, but who knows how good it was seeing everyone scored high.

Just looking at the big points for classics and GCs

E3
Kwiatkowski 220
Cancellara 96

GW
Cancellara 96
Demare 86
Gavira 76
Van Asbroeck 7

Kattekoers
Bauhaus 3

Catalunya
Martin 140
Kudus 16

Crit.Int..
Jeanesson 84
Nerz 62
Denifl 10

Settimana
Lietaer 30

Kwiatkowski, Jeannesson, Nerz, Lietaer, and Denifl are the important points for me as the rest of the big point scorers are pretty common.

 

[Pentacycle]

The CQ game has finally reached the stage where loads of popular GC riders are at the front. Not only in Catalunya, but on Corsica as well. Jeannesson, Dan Martin, Tejay.

Although that will also mark the end of my run on the first spot with nicosix scoring over 1000 pts. against my ~600. And some other contenders might show up as well so this is one update to look out to! The new top 10, and surrounding placings, will probably be ridiculously close. Congrats to the new leader, whoever it may be

 

[skidmark]

Yeah I look forward to seeing how the standings turn out, whenever the update is out. Here's my week:

DDV

Gaviria 26
Petit 18
Stuyven 6

Tot 50

E3

Cancellara 96
Stuyven 86

Total 182

G-W

Cancellara 96
Demare 86
Gaviria 76
Phinney 5
Chavanel 5

Total 192

C-I

Craddock 68

Catalunya

D. Martin 184
TJVG 118
Formolo 34
Meersman 27
Vervaeke 18
Kudus 16
Barguil 14
Gerrans 16
Mohoric 5

Total 432

924 overall by my quick addition. Not quite as stratospheric as some of the folks posting here, but that's fine. Literally everyone on my team in Catalunya except Gerrans and Meersman was attacking today, so that's good to see. I'm sure it'll pay off more sometime.

 

[Nicosix]

If I counted right, I'm at 1187 points this week and won't win the weekly race

But it should be enough to regain the first position

 

[LaFlorecita]

Driedaagse de Panne
KITTEL Marcel
MARTIN Tony
PHINNEY Taylor
OFFREDO Yoann
ZURLO Federico
RUFFONI Nicola
Hopefully, with the ITT, Martin and Phinney can get a good GC result. Kittel could take stage points, the others can surprise me.

Route Adélie
DASSONVILLE Flavien
HARDY Romain
MARTINEZ Yannick

GP Indurain
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
CRADDOCK Lawson

Volta Limburg
RUFFONI Nicola

Ronde van Vlaanderen
CANCELLARA Fabian
PHINNEY Taylor
LANGEVELD Sebastian
DEMARE Arnaud
ZURLO Federico

 

[skidmark]

Update #11: tom-jelte tops week as we get a new leader overall

It was a busy week with two WT 1-day races, one WT stage race, a 1.HC, a 2.HC, and a 2.1 for good measure. Phew! And the results bore that out with popular riders like Dan Martin, van Garderen, Cancellara, Demare and Gaviria all picking up chunks of points. Perhaps its no surprise that 32 teams scored over 1000 points this week, but wow! That's alot. You had to really have the right combo to come out on top this week...

This Week's Top Scorers

Rank Team Points this week
1 tom_jelte 1356
2 Hugo Koblet 1313
3 bort 1298
4 fauniera 1294
5 Geraint Too Fast 1287

With Kwiatkowski, Dan Martin, Vanmarcke and Cancellara all over 180 points this week(!), tom-jelte had a pretty good week to say the least. Supporting points from TJVG, Demare, Boom and Nerz put their team over the top. Second place Hugo Koblet was oh so close, without Vanmarcke from that top tier but with Gaviria, Stuyven, Pozzato and Moscon scoring handy points. Other teams in the top 5 got their main points from some combo of those riders.

This Week's High Movers

Rank Team Up/down
1 tom_jelte (+45)
2 RoudeLeiw (+32)
3 Vesica (+30)
4 hilltopfinisher (+29)
4 bort (+29)

tom-jelte tops this list again, but the rest of the makeup is somewhat different from the previous list. The jumping around the table isn't quite as dramatic as the first couple of months, even with the high scores, as things have settled down and spread out a bit so it's harder to rocket up half the table in one go. Still, these teams will be happy with their 30-or-more place jump.

Green Jersey

Rank Team Total
1 Pentacycle 90
2 Nicosix 86
3 jeroenk 80
3 ironted 80
5 karaev 70

Pentacycle hangs onto the lead in this competition, but Nicosix makes a run with 14 points on the week and 86 overall. No other movement in the top 5, but weekly winner tom-jelte moves into 6th just outside. 104 teams have scored points so far.

Polka Dot Jersey

Rank Team Points
1 LosBrolin 42
2 ironted 39
3 tom_jelte 35
4 al_pacino 33
4 the_fool_on_the_hill 33

Again in this competition, the leader holds on but there is some movement below. LosBrolin stays on top, but tom-jelte uses the 25 points for winning the week (combined with 10 points from way back in week 3) to leap into the top 3. al_pacino scores as well this week to move into the top 5 in this comp. 73 teams have scored points so far.

Top 10 Overall

Rank Up/down Team Points
1 (+1) Nicosix 4736
2 (+3) jeroenk 4551
3 (+7) Falze 4523
4 (+16) Hugo Koblet 4425
5 (-2) Ferminal 4419
6 (+1) skidmark 4322
7 (-1) StephenC2020 4274
8 (-4) the asian 4269
9 (-1) shalgo 4263
10 (-9) Pentacycle 4238

Pentacycle had led a charmed life in this game thus far, rocketing to the top and staying there without Dan Martin, Tejay van Garderen or most popular pick Marcel Kittel. But a week like this was bound to happen - Pentacycle falls from 1st to 10th, and Nicosix has a great week to move back into the top spot. Lots of movement, although little in and out of the top 10. Falze takes a big leap to the podium, and game founder Hugo Koblet takes an even bigger leap from 20th to 4th! Hugo is the only team to move into the top 10, and former leader karaev falls out.

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