Well, this has been a busy, busy year for me and I haven't been able to comment on this thread as much. Luckily (well, maybe that's the wrong word) my team has done poorly so I haven't had much to comment about. I think this finish is my worst so far - I had only had one time out of the top 25 or something before, I believe - but my team wasn't terrible or anything. I think a few factors were: that everyone is getting better at this game as time goes on, that because I had two really great years in a row I kinda let myself pick with my heart more, and also just the regular mix of bad luck and picks that seemed like a good idea but weren't great in retrospect. Here's a breakdown of my team, from guys I'm ecstatic about to guys who were a wasted pick.
Home Runs
Michal Kwiatkowski
Mikel Landa
Elia Viviani
Stefan Kung
The fact that this list is a) so small, and b) picked by an average of 76 teams kinda says it all about my year. Nevertheless, these guys were great, like lots of people knew they could be.
Right about where I expected/happy with
Vincenzo Nibali
Fabio Aru
John Degenkolb
Simone Consonni
Again, a small list, but at least there were two rare picks in Nibali and Consonni. I can't imagine how much my team would have tanked if Nibali did. I believe I made a comment at the start of the year that Nibali always gets you thinking that he'll have a terrible year, but manages to pull it out somewhere. That was what September/October was, for sure. If he had performed like I had expected/hoped in Oman, Abu Dhabi and Tirenno-Adriatico, he would have topped 2000. Either way, I'm grateful he pulled it together for a respectable finish. I will also say that thankfully most of my expensive picks fell into these 2 categories, which I think allowed me to finish no lower than I did.
I would have liked a liiiiitle more
Yves Lampaert
Phil Bauhaus
Alexis Gougeard
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
Lasse Norman Hansen
Edward Planckaert
Owain Doull
Ondrej Cink
If Lampaert had done anything in Roubaix, he would have moved up a category. Mostly a good year. Bauhaus did almost exactly what I thought he would - the quality of his win in the Dauphine showed his potential for sure. But he just didn't get enough results... a top 5 in the national championships even woulda put him over the top for me. Gougeard did okay, he was a roll of the dice because his points depend on late attacks sticking. GVK had the potential for more, especially with his TT skills. The other guys... that's fine, they are just becoming road pros. Cink just needed to finish 5 spots higher in every GC he was in.
Disappointing
Robert Gesink
Eduardo Sepulveda
EM Grosu
Simone Petilli
Carlos Betancur
Simone Ponzi
Rob Power
Filippo Ganna
A mixed bag here. Gesink looked like he was gonna do what I expected in the Tour and then bam, injured for the season. Betancur actually looked like he'd turn into a decent pick in the Vuelta, but same deal (although he only woulda moved up one category for me unless he was like top 8 overall with a stage win). Petilli I thought was gonna steadily improve, but he looks like a before-this-year Cattaneo in terms of progression and lack thereof. Power I'm willing to be patient, and Ganna too, but the others (Sepulveda, Grosu, Ponzi) I don't think will ever be the riders I thought they could be. Sepulveda is moving to the Movistar train anyway, which I think is a good fit for him - leadership doesn't seem to be working out, but he can be a good workhorse in the mold of like an Anacona. Grosu, I never thought was the best talent, but he was fast enough, on a team that would go to lots of small races, and in the last Giro stage last year I thought 'man if he could just get his timing better...' But the nadir for me came in the summer when I saw he was down for the extremely long and non-competitive Tour of Quinghai Lake, and I thought it was finally his chance to build some confidence and get some points. Instead, he got a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th out of 13 stages, losing to such luminous sprinting names as Jon Aberasturi, Dusan Rajovic, Ahmet Orken and Yevgeny Gidich. Whoops! Okay okay, I won't pick him next year.
Waste of a pick
Leopold Konig
Taylor Phinney
Matvey Mamykin
Joe Dombrowski
Tiago Machado
Benat Intxausti
Kris Boeckmans
Julian Arredondo
Adriano Malori
You know, just almost a third of my team. If you can spot a relatively common thread here, it's the 'hope for a redemption narrative to bear fruit'. I definitely let myself pick with my heart this year; part of that was a time factor, as in I ran out of time to pick my team and so didn't do those last few refining swoops over them to let my logic take hold, and part of that was that I had done really really well the last two years with two podium finishes, so I figured I'd let myself pick for riders I was hoping for, even if I didn't think it was smart. Phinney, Intxausti, Boeckmans, Arredondo, and Malori all fall into that category. Admittedly I didn't really know how poorly Intxausti's recovery was going, so I did think there'd be sporting value in that pick too, but Boeckmans and Malori, and to a certain extent Phinney, I knew they would never be the riders they were at their peak, but I hoped so I convinced myself to pick em. Arredondo too to an extent, although I thought if he made it through the prior year and didn't quit, he must have seen some light at the end of the tunnel. The other guys on the list - Konig I couldn't have predicted would take the whole season to get back, Dombrowski at least had that one year where he showed his promise, and Machado it turns out is just in decline rather than coming off a bad year. I'm truly puzzled by Mamykin, as he looked so great at the Vuelta 2016. But sometimes that just happens. Either way, it's hard to not imagine a team where I picked Bernal and Carapaz instead of Dombro and Malori, for starters.
Ah well, it was a fun year to follow still, and I really enjoy the updates (even if it's all I have time to do and sometimes not for a few days), and of course I love the early season team reveals, discussion, and anticipation. Can't wait to get it started again.