The 2017 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[MADRAZO]

Okay, here's the full (barring any mistakes) spreadsheet. I haven't erased the tabs for old teams yet, and for some reason only 129 teams are listed on the rankings page, even though I counted 131 during entry process and copied 130 to the popularity page. Something must've gotten miscounted, so let me know if you're not there!

I have had trouble making the pivot table for rider popularity - I did it last year, figuring it out as I went, but am having trouble replicating it. If someone is interested in doing that and sharing that file back to me on this thread, that'd be great as I'm done for the evening. Cheers!

Hi, as far as I can see my team looks completely wrong in this document, so I think there are some sort of mistake with this.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I already got the feeling that I could end up high in the popularity rank, but being first is a surprise!

Indeed interesting to see that a couple of my pick are not very popular. I doubted for a long time about Roy Jans, but I think he can do very well in smaller (and maybe some of the bigger) European (Belgium/French) races.
Michael Hepburn focused last year of the track, that's the reason I picked him. Cheap and high potential. And my first points of the year already!

Mine too, though I don't really see Hepburn's potential to score on a team as stacked with talent as Orica. It may be entirely meaningless, but it's not a great sign that he couldn't beat the rider who finished 3rd in the Aussie TT, either. Unless the latter was a dodgy performance. It was the first time that he didn't beat him, I think.

As of right now, I'd have replaced Hepburn with Ganna. Very much hope you're right though, as I want riders in that price range to do more than be decent filler picks who just double their scores. They have to have 200+ potential and I don't see it at this point.

I also considered Txurruka for the same slots as Hepburn and Boeckmans, even though he doesn't have a team (yet?) Ha, I just checked and two people have him. Love it.

And yes, I also expected Jans to be fairly popular (and probably be a better pick than the similarly priced, but far more popular Spilak.)

 

[Kazistuta]

Re: Re:

MEYER Cameron
Another heart pick but I feel his talent is much greater than he showed last yer

Hate to be the one to tell you this - but he's retired

And un-retired again :lol: He's participating in the Australian road race sunday: http://metarace.com.au/carn/men_rr_startlist

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

And un-retired again :lol: He's participating in the Australian road race sunday: http://metarace.com.au/carn/men_rr_startlist

More:

"Meyer says he will try to combine his track and road ambitions over the next few years, with the Commonwealth Games and Olympics on his radar."

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/racing/cameron-meyer-returns-cycling-four-months-normal-human-288430#TcEj6RoJqCiD62yh.99

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

MEYER Cameron
Another heart pick but I feel his talent is much greater than he showed last yer

Hate to be the one to tell you this - but he's retired

And un-retired again :lol: He's participating in the Australian road race sunday: http://metarace.com.au/carn/men_rr_startlist

Thats funny.

On the other hand, my top dog Dennis won’t ride the Nationals road race this Sunday.

Apparently, he doest give a crap about results. Maybe I should have pick Geraint HOMAS instead as this spot was between the two. Well, you never know, Dennis is 3kg lighter this year and maybe he will out-climb all the other mountain goats targeting Giro.

“To be honest it’s never really going to go my way, as negative as that sounds,” Dennis said. “I think that it’s best I just go home. I cleared ahead and I’ll just sort of keep that one race day in the pocket.”

Dennis will instead return to training ahead of the Santos Tour Down Under. It’s a race Dennis won in 2015, but in 2017 he’ll ride in support of his teammate and fellow Australian Richie Porte.

From there he’ll ride the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race before heading to Europe and building towards the Giro d’Italia where he hopes to start learning the craft of being a Grand Tour GC rider.

“This year’s a lot about learning and that might mean that I actually don’t get any results this year,” Dennis said. “I might look like I’m completely crap, to be honest, but it’s what I’m going to learn. I might fail, like really fail when it comes to the Giro, but it’s all about learning how to look after myself for three weeks and then just make those small steps over the next couple of years.”

 

[the asian]

I already got the feeling that I could end up high in the popularity rank, but being first is a surprise!

Indeed interesting to see that a couple of my pick are not very popular. I doubted for a long time about Roy Jans, but I think he can do very well in smaller (and maybe some of the bigger) European (Belgium/French) races.
Michael Hepburn focused last year of the track, that's the reason I picked him. Cheap and high potential. And my first points of the year already!

Mine too, though I don't really see Hepburn's potential to score on a team as stacked with talent as Orica. It may be entirely meaningless, but it's not a great sign that he couldn't beat the rider who finished 3rd in the Aussie TT, either. Unless the latter was a dodgy performance. It was the first time that he didn't beat him, I think.

As of right now, I'd have replaced Hepburn with Ganna. Very much hope you're right though, as I want riders in that price range to do more than be decent filler picks who just double their scores. They have to have 200+ potential and I don't see it at this point.

I also considered Txurruka for the same slots as Hepburn and Boeckmans, even though he doesn't have a team (yet?) Ha, I just checked and two people have him. Love it.

And yes, I also expected Jans to be fairly popular (and probably be a better pick than the similarly priced, but far more popular Spilak.)

I too selected Hepburn but aint overly with his 4th place at the AUS TT. His time is too far behind Pore & Durbo for my liking. Wishing i selected Boeckmans instead.

I didn't select Ganna mainly because I'm not too postive aboout young rider development by Lampre/UAE Abu Dhabi and adding to that their off season travails felt riders from that team aren't worth risking.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

"SINKELDAM Ramon: I'm surprised he is such a rare pick. He is still pretty young and dropped from 396 to 142 points last year. And his bad last season wasn't only caused by bad shape, no, he was also part of the big Team Giant car crash last year, which also screwed up Degenkolb's season. Is there maybe some bad news about him, which I missed, because I really don't understand why he wasn't picked by more people."

I think the main reason people are not picking Sinkeldam is that he seems to has lost all claim for any leading sprinterrole on the team. Before last season he was almost tied with Arndt I think in the hierachi, and now I think its clear both Arndt, Walscheid and Bauhaus besides Matthews will sprint before him, so that he is stuck leading out, so that he mainly only has the cobleclassics left to score where he will struggle to improve enough despite a clear talent there.

In his best season (2015) he was in a team with Kittel and Degenkolb so I wouldn't say he is in a team with stronger sprinters this year. Moreover I don't think Walscheid and Bauhaus will be rated much higher than Sinkeldam by the team and I think the team has no leader for the cobbles classics, so his role there is much better now, since Degenkolb has left the team.

 

[MADRAZO]

Re: Re:

"SINKELDAM Ramon: I'm surprised he is such a rare pick. He is still pretty young and dropped from 396 to 142 points last year. And his bad last season wasn't only caused by bad shape, no, he was also part of the big Team Giant car crash last year, which also screwed up Degenkolb's season. Is there maybe some bad news about him, which I missed, because I really don't understand why he wasn't picked by more people."

I think the main reason people are not picking Sinkeldam is that he seems to has lost all claim for any leading sprinterrole on the team. Before last season he was almost tied with Arndt I think in the hierachi, and now I think its clear both Arndt, Walscheid and Bauhaus besides Matthews will sprint before him, so that he is stuck leading out, so that he mainly only has the cobleclassics left to score where he will struggle to improve enough despite a clear talent there.

In his best season (2015) he was in a team with Kittel and Degenkolb so I wouldn't say he is in a team with stronger sprinters this year. Moreover I don't think Walscheid and Bauhaus will be rated much higher than Sinkeldam by the team and I think the team has no leader for the cobbles classics, so his role there is much better now, since Degenkolb has left the team.

Fair point and its definetly not impossible that he can claim a sprintrole again if he can show the speed he did in 2015, and he should definetly have a free role on the cobbles besides that. But still I feel quite sure that the questionable sprintrole and the drop from shared nr. 2 before 2016 to a start as most likely number 5 or 6 in the sprint hierachi ahead of 2017 (Waeytens the other number 5 or 6) in 2017 is the reason that he is not picked much. But surely he is a talented rider and could indeed end up a good pick.

 

[R_O_Shipman]

Re: Re:

ZHAO Jingbiao - I had 34 points left, this guy was 33 and has a cool name. Plus he's 19, so could be on an upward trend?

This kid's a talent! But I can't believe someone else picked him! He was in my team which I submitted to skidmark, and I was absolutely certain he'd be a unique pick. But then the news about Vorganov getting a contract came out, so I had to make space, and unfortunately Zhao had to be sacrificed. Zhao won the senior national championship as a 19-year-old, and last season he showed good consistency in the sprints, and even won a 2.1 stage in Fuzhou. With more flat Chinese races being added in 2017, and with increased confidence and experience, he should be a decent pick. Other good things are team captain Wang Meiyin having left the team (I think Wang will struggle majorly in the WT) making Zhao the star, and that the old Lampre team have less incentive to go to China now, so the Chinese races could be more open.

Will be rooting for your team just because of this pick! .

Thanks man - that was exactly my thinking. That and the cool name. Or just the cool name. It was mostly the cool name.

 

[greenedge]

Ok here's my thoughts on my team below.

Porte 1109- hopefully he can win 2 early season WT races and podium a few others. Then podium at the TDF and hopefully target some races in America before going to the WC ITT. One of my only stage racing threats and not a GT candidate for the Giro, so it should ensure I get some points from the TDF. In all a risky pick, but I think the renewed focus on him by BMC should serve him good.
Gaviria 833- A popular pick mitigates his risk of failure and I think he can score around 2000, hopefully the WC RR course on the day suits him.
Aru 777- I considered Zakarin or Kruijswijk over him, but realised with his 2015 schedule repeated he should get around 1400.
Benoot 588- Hopefully he can score big in the new WT cobbled races.
Degenkolb 550- Pretty obvious.
Landa 479-Hopefully he can have a great early season and unrealistically get a chance to stagehunt at the Vuelta.
Haas 315-Needed an Ardennes rider and he should be competitive in TDU and AGR. If he goes to the Giro he could win a stage too.
Viviani 275...
Konig 264-Hopefully his lack of great climbing support at the Giro doesn't hinder him much.
Tsatevich 228-Was superb at Catalunya, yet after his forced exit from the Giro things went downhill. Hopefully with a new team and a plethora of European races he can score highly.
Kung 225-He should do well.
Van Der Sande 205-The WT equivalent of Tsatevich, if he can stagehunt without Greipel I think he has high scoring potential.
Mamykin 199-Couldn't go past him.
Bouet 184-Coming 2nd in a Vuelta sprint was very impressive, hopefully he can be up there in harder French races that end in a sprint.
Albanese 159-Should have a lot of opportunities with no Colbrelli.
Guldhammer 138-Had a great 2015, but a terrible 2016 so hopefully that was the result of Cult and Stotling's failed merger.
Cimolai 106-Should be able to ride some smaller French races and score well.
Schachmann 101-Seems to be very consistent in time-trials and should get a lot of opportunities at smaller races based off his ITT.
Mas 92-His climbing talent is too good not to include.
Consonni 89-Has a good sprint which should get some points in Italian races.
Martinez 87-Completed his first GT, hopefully this year he benefits from that.
Intxausti 79-Too good a rider to not include.
Power 77-Will get some opportunities, if he rides the Herald Sun Tour he can top 5 and shouldn't have to ride for Yates (X2) or Chaves in big races until the Vuelta.
Edmonson 66-Has a nice sprint and ITT skills and some good pedigree, so he could score in some smaller Belgian races.
Van Keirsbulck 61-Can target the Belgian races and has a lot of talent, so should go well.
Boeckmans 60-I'd cheer for him even if not on my team, it just makes it an added bonus.
Restrepo 48-Finished the Vuelta and has a good punch for uphill sprints.
Planckaert 45-Should benefit from Topsport's proven track record of developing young riders.
Budding 32-Seems to be a young talent who was an instinctive pick.
Allegaert 12-One of two young Topsport riders who I hope can have great years.
P. Barbier 8-I hope he has a good sprint and can ride well at many of the U23 races.
Doull 7-2016 was devoted to the track and he should be able to score some decent points.
Malori 2- Same as Boeckmans.

A lot of popular picks in the upper echelons of my team, but also quite a few un-popular picks, of whom i'm expecting Porte, Haas and Tsatevich to lead the line for me. It was hard to select a team with so many great picks available but I hope this one can go well.
Some potential weaknesses of my team:
-A giro heavy focus, that a lot of other teams have too.
-Too many young riders.
-No Ardennes contender other than Haas.
-Probably not enough stage racing threats year round.
-An overly optimistic season for Richie.

Best of luck to everyone!

 

[DFA123]

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I really like your team greenedge, you could do really well this year. I've added my thoughts for some (imo) interesting picks

Ok here's my thoughts on my team below.
...
Best of luck to everyone!

Porte 1109
Actually I was surprised to find out he only scored 1109 points, I feel he had a very decent 2016 for his standards without any major disasters or missed opportunities. Looking at his results, if he can go one or two higher in all his races, combine a spring campaign like in 2013 or 2015 with a performance at the TDF similar to 2016, he could definitely turn in a decent profit, but I just feel he isn't superstar material which to me means I can't see him score more than 1500-1600. Still, for an expensive pick a 150% increase is more than decent, and much more than I can hope for for my expensive pick, I suppose

Haas 315
I must admit I hadn't even considered him. I went for Navardauskas instead, I feel they are similar riders with a similar points ceiling, they pick up decently sized batches of points here and there in hilly races, and they are also similarly priced. I can definitely understand your pick from an Aussie perspective. It will be interesting to see which one of them ends up the better pick.

Tsatevich 228
I really like this pick! Both the rider and the inclusion in your team, I mean. Very interesting sprinter who could pick up a load of points in smaller races. Without Kristoff to worry about he might also have more freedom. I actually never considered him but think he could turn out great!

Van Der Sande 205
Oh, Tosh... Such a promising sprinter but he just fails to deliver. I've selected him in various games over the past few years but he isn't really showing any progress. Both for him and for you I hope he finally has a breakthrough season, because if he adds another 200 point season to his streak, I fear he will just fade into obscurity.

Guldhammer 138
Very interesting pick. I remember looking at him as well, but in the end decided against him, probably (looking at his page again) because this year he'll race at Conti level as opposed to Pro Conti in 2015 which limits his race calendar somewhat. Still, his results were below par in 2016, so if he finds his old form he should still score a good profit in the Scandinavian races.

Cimolai 106
Yay, someone else with Cimo To be honest I am not very sure about him, I even thought about taking him out of my team a few times. I didn't have any other sprinters for the French calendar though and couldn't find a good 1-on-1 replacement for him either, so he stayed. I'm hoping he gets to lead in some French races (Demare can't do them all) and if something happens to Demare, he might even be FDJ's designated sprinter. I guess we'll have to cross our fingers that Demare doesn't get a car hike on the Poggio this time

Schachmann 101
I feel good TTers (along with Italian sprinters) are the best neo pros to bet on, they often get their chance to shine because team hierarchy isn't as important in TTs and there are several smaller stage races in which a short time trial is decisive. So in that regard, he could definitely be a good pick. However, there are so many similar riders on QuickStep; good TTers with a huge engine; that I fear he'll get lost and be sacrificed even when he has a chance to get a good result. They do appear to have a good feeling about developing these riders, though.

Mas 92
Normally I am not too fond of neo pro climbers, but I couldn't leave him out. I know Contador rates him very highly and I also feel he has huge potential. QuickStep could be a great team for him as there aren't many climbers ahead of him in the pecking order, I only see Dan Martin, Alaphilippe and Brambilla and call me crazy, but I'm not even sure I'd rate the latter two above him purely based on climbing potential. Also, this may sound very weird but because Alberto rates him so highly and Enric is managed by Alberto's brother, I think QuickStep might feel some sort of obligation to give him ample opportunity to prove his worth. It certainly seems as though there is some sort of deal in place between the Fundación Contador U23 team and the QuickStep managing board, possibly established during the time Specialized sponsored both teams. 3 of their riders moved up to the Etixx feeder team in the past (which now no longer exists), the team trained in Belgium with some Etixx riders in the past and another rider, Diego Sevilla, has been invited to QuickStep's training camp next week. It certainly seems like an odd connection between a Spanish youth squad and a Belgian/Czech outfit mainly focused on classics.
Of course, I may be greatly overrating him and in that case, I should probably apologize for at least part of the hype surrounding him I'm definitely curious to see how he fares at the TDU. I don't expect him to finish high up on the GC as it is his first WT race, but it would be a very good sign if he could finish with the better climbers on the more difficult stages.

Van Keirsbulck 61
Think he could be a great pick. He's had so many issues with injuries and illness in the past years and should have a lot of freedom at Wanty. I had to decide between him and Trofimov for my team, went for Trofimov in the end but I'm not sure if it's the right choice. Guillaume definitely sounds super motivated in interviews so this decision may come back to bite me in the ....

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

I have both.

Ewan:
Between the TdU, Sun Tour & AUS nationals, he should be at 150-200 right there. Then, while I agree that all the bigger guys can out-sprint him, being top 5 on every sprinter stage is enough to deliver 1000. Everything else is a bonus. If he gets a better support/lead-out he should be at 1000+ easy.

Gaviria:
Unless you live under a rock, you should know that he got the speed to beat any sprinter on any day. Now, being on QS guarantees a proper support. He can climb and he is capable of winning big races. MSR will be his major podium this year a and he should be at 1000+ after the Giro. If Sagan can score 3300, Gaviria should score at least half, that is 1650 and that is also pretty much doubling his points ... and that why I took him.

 

[Jancouver]

@greenedge

Nice team!

Porte:
There is not way the little guy will score 2000+ points and at least double potential is my rule. He had somewhat successful 2016 and I can grantee you he will find a way to screw up, ... as he always does. You will be lucky to get your points back.

Tsatevich
I had him before and my conclusion is that there is always at least five faster guys in every race. Plus he is a Russian and because of the anti-russian, anti-doping propaganda, I will not touch any Russian. Therefore I also had to skip Mamykin, Trofimov and others.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

I have both.

Ewan:
Between the TdU, Sun Tour & AUS nationals, he should be at 150-200 right there. Then, while I agree that all the bigger guys can out-sprint him, being top 5 on every sprinter stage is enough to deliver 1000. Everything else is a bonus. If he gets a better support/lead-out he should be at 1000+ easy.

Gaviria:
Unless you live under a rock, you should know that he got the speed to beat any sprinter on any day. Now, being on QS guarantees a proper support. He can climb and he is capable of winning big races. MSR will be his major podium this year a and he should be at 1000+ after the Giro. If Sagan can score 3300, Gaviria should score at least half, that is 1650 and that is also pretty much doubling his points ... and that why I took him.

Fair enough, I kind of see the logic. I rate both very highly as riders as well, and Gaviria especially looks destined to be an absolute star in the next few years. But I'm still not convinced that either will come close to doubling their points. With Orica focusing much more on GC - with three potential challengers for stage races (possibly four with Kreuziger) it's difficult to see Ewan getting much support in the big races. Gaviria undoubtedly has some big wins in him, but I'd be concerned about the consistency and opportunities, particularly as he's not the number one sprinter, and is far from the number one classics rider on his team. I think there is much more limited opportunities for him to have a true break-out year like Sagan did, because of the team he's riding for.

Also, my question was more generally, that if Ewan and Gaviria gain an extra 1000+ points between them; who will they be taking those points from? The only sprinters I can see losing significant points from last season are Nizzolo, Cobrelli, Coquard and Sagan. But even that's not guaranteed, with the first three all capable of hoovering up a lot of points in their domestic races where Ewan and Gaviria won't be so prolific. The other sprinters to me look like they should get at least the same as last year; with some like Degenkolb, Viviani and Bouhanni possibly getting a lot more. I'm just sceptical that there are enough points to go around with so many quality sprinters that Ewan and Gaviria can make such big gains this season.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

I have both.

Ewan:
Between the TdU, Sun Tour & AUS nationals, he should be at 150-200 right there. Then, while I agree that all the bigger guys can out-sprint him, being top 5 on every sprinter stage is enough to deliver 1000. Everything else is a bonus. If he gets a better support/lead-out he should be at 1000+ easy.

Gaviria:
Unless you live under a rock, you should know that he got the speed to beat any sprinter on any day. Now, being on QS guarantees a proper support. He can climb and he is capable of winning big races. MSR will be his major podium this year a and he should be at 1000+ after the Giro. If Sagan can score 3300, Gaviria should score at least half, that is 1650 and that is also pretty much doubling his points ... and that why I took him.

Fair enough, I kind of see the logic. I rate both very highly as riders as well, and Gaviria especially looks destined to be an absolute star in the next few years. But I'm still not convinced that either will come close to doubling their points. With Orica focusing much more on GC - with three potential challengers for stage races (possibly four with Kreuziger) it's difficult to see Ewan getting much support in the big races. Gaviria undoubtedly has some big wins in him, but I'd be concerned about the consistency and opportunities, particularly as he's not the number one sprinter, and is far from the number one classics rider on his team. I think there is much more limited opportunities for him to have a true break-out year like Sagan did, because of the team he's riding for.

Also, my question was more generally, that if Ewan and Gaviria gain an extra 1000+ points between them; who will they be taking those points from? The only sprinters I can see losing significant points from last season are Nizzolo, Cobrelli, Coquard and Sagan. But even that's not guaranteed, with the first three all capable of hoovering up a lot of points in their domestic races where Ewan and Gaviria won't be so prolific. The other sprinters to me look like they should get at least the same as last year; with some like Degenkolb, Viviani and Bouhanni possibly getting a lot more. I'm just sceptical that there are enough points to go around with so many quality sprinters that Ewan and Gaviria can make such big gains this season.

I can see Groenewegen, Demare and Kittel all losing point,

The one thing that does go against sprinters is the loss of the tour of Qatar, where they wont have the GC points

 

[Squire]

Re:

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

It doesn't really work that way. CQ ranking is not a zero-sum equation for the top sprinters. There are enough races and points on offer for all the sprinters to have a good year.

I picked Gaviria for a number of reasons, and I'm convinced he's a great pick. He could have scored double the amount of points already last season if he wasn't unlucky (MSR, injured for Frankfurt + May races, track focus, crashing out of worlds). With Boonen gone after P-R and Meersman already gone, Gaviria will be the go-to guy for so many races. He's super consistent and competitive from January until October, and Quickstep rides so so many lucrative one-day races where Gaviria will be the leader, especially with no Boonen and Meersman. Additionally, he has got probably the world's best leadout man in Richeze, there are several new WT hardman sprinter's races and the worlds course suits him perfectly. Barring injury, anyhing less than 1800 points will disappoint me hugely.


Some interesting thoughts here. My comments in bold.

Haas 315
I must admit I hadn't even considered him. I went for Navardauskas instead, I feel they are similar riders with a similar points ceiling, they pick up decently sized batches of points here and there in hilly races, and they are also similarly priced. I can definitely understand your pick from an Aussie perspective. It will be interesting to see which one of them ends up the better pick.

If I wanted an Ardennes guy in this price range, I'd have gone with Jay McCarthy instead. Haas has had enough chances to convince, and Navardauskas has stated he'll be Nibali's bodyguard throughout the year.

Tsatevich 228
I really like this pick! Both the rider and the inclusion in your team, I mean. Very interesting sprinter who could pick up a load of points in smaller races. Without Kristoff to worry about he might also have more freedom. I actually never considered him but think he could turn out great!

I like the thinking here (and I've made several picks because of similar reasons), but I think maybe Porsev could be the better Gazprom pick. Tsatevich is a bit hit and miss, while they've stated that Porsev will be their main guy. Tsatevich is of course a bit more versatile.

[...]

Schachmann 101
I feel good TTers (along with Italian sprinters) are the best neo pros to bet on, they often get their chance to shine because team hierarchy isn't as important in TTs and there are several smaller stage races in which a short time trial is decisive. So in that regard, he could definitely be a good pick. However, there are so many similar riders on QuickStep; good TTers with a huge engine; that I fear he'll get lost and be sacrificed even when he has a chance to get a good result. They do appear to have a good feeling about developing these riders, though.

In a previous post, I wrote why I think TTers are especially bad picks this year. I guess young TTers are more likely to have solid seasons and make a safe improvement, but the ones with the crazy explosions in CQ points are sprinters and puncheurs (and sometimes there's a Formolo too).

Mas 92
Normally I am not too fond of neo pro climbers, but I couldn't leave him out. I know Contador rates him very highly and I also feel he has huge potential. QuickStep could be a great team for him as there aren't many climbers ahead of him in the pecking order, I only see Dan Martin, Alaphilippe and Brambilla and call me crazy, but I'm not even sure I'd rate the latter two above him purely based on climbing potential. Also, this may sound very weird but because Alberto rates him so highly and Enric is managed by Alberto's brother, I think QuickStep might feel some sort of obligation to give him ample opportunity to prove his worth. It certainly seems as though there is some sort of deal in place between the Fundación Contador U23 team and the QuickStep managing board, possibly established during the time Specialized sponsored both teams. 3 of their riders moved up to the Etixx feeder team in the past (which now no longer exists), the team trained in Belgium with some Etixx riders in the past and another rider, Diego Sevilla, has been invited to QuickStep's training camp next week. It certainly seems like an odd connection between a Spanish youth squad and a Belgian/Czech outfit mainly focused on classics.
Of course, I may be greatly overrating him and in that case, I should probably apologize for at least part of the hype surrounding him I'm definitely curious to see how he fares at the TDU. I don't expect him to finish high up on the GC as it is his first WT race, but it would be a very good sign if he could finish with the better climbers on the more difficult stages.

I had less complicated reasons for picking Mas. He was the best U23 climber together with Gaudu, young enough so that he's not winning just because of having developed more, and I can sense a Formolo debut season coming. He has said he'll be in good shape for the early season Spanish races, and his TDU participation goes along well with that. Quickstep should also offer decent chances. I kind of hedged my bets by picking De Plus too. At least one of them should hopefully have a 500 point season.

 

[Jancouver]

Gaviria can grab points from these guys:

the top losers highlighted in red. I left Piti & GVA there on purpose as they also have a fast legs and like to sprint on every reduced bunch sprint. Gaviria may be able to challenge some of their points (obviously not those real climbing races where Piti shines)

1. (1) SVK SAGAN Peter BOH 26/01/1990 3307
4. (4) BEL VAN AVERMAET Greg BMC 17/05/1985 2279
5. (5) ESP VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro MOV 25/04/1980 2130
6. (6) NOR KRISTOFF Alexander KAT 05/07/1987 1961
10. (10) ITA NIZZOLO Giacomo TFS 30/01/1989 1511
11. (11) FRA COQUARD Bryan DEN 25/04/1992 1355
12. (12) NOR BOASSON HAGEN Edvald DDD 17/05/1987 1348
16. (16) GBR CAVENDISH Mark DDD 21/05/1985 1251
17. (17) ITA COLBRELLI Sonny TBM 17/05/1990 1239
20. (20) GER KITTEL Marcel QST 11/05/1988 1198
22. (22) NED GROENEWEGEN Dylan TLJ 21/06/1993 1160
27. (27) BEL PLANCKAERT Baptiste KAT 28/09/1988 1074
28. (28) GER GREIPEL André LTS 16/07/1982 1071
31. (31) FRA DEMARE Arnaud FDJ 26/08/1991 980

 

[skidmark]

I've done a couple of fixes on incorrectly entered teams. One was a response to a PM and the other I saw MADRAZO post on the thread. If you notice any issues, please PM me as I can't guarantee I'll see all the thread posts.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Re: Re:

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

I find it odd to say that with Cav will be better this year since he's 100% focused on the road, but not mention that Gaviria did both the olympics and the world championships on track. Gaviria has the top end speed to rival any sprinter in the world and, in my opinion, he's the best prospect for the classics this side of Tom Boonen. He crashed out of 100-280pts at MSR and missed more than two months with the Olympics, so he's already way better than his score indicates. He knows how to win, his team is loaded and has a long history of success at the races he's targeting, so if he's reasonably healthy I just can't see how he doesn't blow his 2016 score out of the water. Definitely one of the easiest selection I made this year.

On the other hand, I'm not convinced Ewan's all that. I found his first two seasons pretty underwhelming for a guy that was billed as the next big thing in term of sprinting. Don't get me wrong, he's obviously fast but he doesn't seem like he has the stamina to be a factor at the end of classic/WT stages (at least not yet) and that puts a serious ceiling on his scoring ability. Maybe this is the year he makes that jump (he's still so young after all, it's not unrealistic), maybe he still need a couple more years of seasoning before he can compete with the big guys on a consistent basis on the WT (I tend to think it's the latter). He's already shown he can feast on lesser competition if the race isn't too hard so as long his program includes a few .1/.HC, he'll easily beat his 2016 score but I have a tough time seeing him getting more than 1000 points (more like 700-800 I think).

 

[Hakkie2]

I compared all of our selections against the selections of 10 well-established players (players who are either top-10 all-time ranking, top-10 average ranking, top-5 in 2016, or winner of a small CQ-game in 2016).

Based on that comparison, I was able to make 2 small rankings:

Over-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did not select, but 'average' players did)

1) Caleb Ewan
2) Edoardo Zardini
3) Pierre Rolland
4) Silvan Dillier
5) Miguel Angel Lopez Moreno

Under-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did select, but 'average' players did not)

1) Boris Vallee
2) Riccardo Minali
3) Tiago Machado
4) Mike Teunissen
5) Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
6) Michal Kwiatkowski
7) Danny Van Poppel
8) Simone Ponzi
9) Fabio Aru
10) Rafael Valls

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

I find it odd to say that with Cav will be better this year since he's 100% focused on the road, but not mention that Gaviria did both the olympics and the world championships on track. Gaviria has the top end speed to rival any sprinter in the world and, in my opinion, he's the best prospect for the classics this side of Tom Boonen. He crashed out of 100-280pts at MSR and missed more than two months with the Olympics, so he's already way better than his score indicates. He knows how to win, his team is loaded and has a long history of success at the races he's targeting, so if he's reasonably healthy I just can't see how he doesn't blow his 2016 score out of the water. Definitely one of the easiest selection I made this year.

Some good points here; and I agree with nearly all of it. I just think that he is not quite there yet, and maybe will need one or two more seasons before he reaches his full potential. I read that he's riding his first GT this season (Giro). That's a tough ask for any 22 year old if he plans to finish it; and it will be interesting to see a) how he does in that race, and b) how it affects his form for the rest of the season.

Also, with this being the last season for Boonen and with Terpstra, Stybar, Lampaert, Vakoc and Jungels all around - I'm a bit sceptical about how many chances he'll get in the classics. Also last year, he had no serious injury setbacks and no training problems - it's not a situation like with Degenkolb where he just has to stay on the bike for the year to double his points - he's actually got to improve his performances.

Combined with the high number of quality sprinters around now, I was thinking he would do well to get 1,200+
But you could be right, he's going to have a massive breakthrough year sometime soon, where he consistently challenges in the big races. Personally I think it will be 2018 or 2019, but there's certainly a chance it could be this year.

Gaviria can grab points from these guys:

the top losers highlighted in red. I left Piti & GVA there on purpose as they also have a fast legs and like to sprint on every reduced bunch sprint. Gaviria may be able to challenge some of their points (obviously not those real climbing races where Piti shines)

1. (1) SVK SAGAN Peter BOH 26/01/1990 3307
4. (4) BEL VAN AVERMAET Greg BMC 17/05/1985 2279
5. (5) ESP VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro MOV 25/04/1980 2130
6. (6) NOR KRISTOFF Alexander KAT 05/07/1987 1961
10. (10) ITA NIZZOLO Giacomo TFS 30/01/1989 1511
11. (11) FRA COQUARD Bryan DEN 25/04/1992 1355
12. (12) NOR BOASSON HAGEN Edvald DDD 17/05/1987 1348
16. (16) GBR CAVENDISH Mark DDD 21/05/1985 1251
17. (17) ITA COLBRELLI Sonny TBM 17/05/1990 1239
20. (20) GER KITTEL Marcel QST 11/05/1988 1198
22. (22) NED GROENEWEGEN Dylan TLJ 21/06/1993 1160
27. (27) BEL PLANCKAERT Baptiste KAT 28/09/1988 1074
28. (28) GER GREIPEL André LTS 16/07/1982 1071
31. (31) FRA DEMARE Arnaud FDJ 26/08/1991 980

Agreed that some of those could lose points (would certainly include Sagan in red as well), but I'm sure some of them will improve as well. And Degenkolb will be taking a big share of any surplus points. Plus Bouhanni, and the hoard of Italian sprinters who all underperformed last season.

 

[GP Blanco]

Re:

I compared all of our selections against the selections of 10 well-established players (players who are either top-10 all-time ranking, top-10 average ranking, top-5 in 2016, or winner of a small CQ-game in 2016).

Based on that comparison, I was able to make 2 small rankings:

Over-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did not select, but 'average' players did)

1) Caleb Ewan
2) Edoardo Zardini
3) Pierre Rolland
4) Silvan Dillier
5) Miguel Angel Lopez Moreno

Under-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did select, but 'average' players did not)

1) Boris Vallee
2) Riccardo Minali
3) Tiago Machado
4) Mike Teunissen
5) Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
6) Michal Kwiatkowski
7) Danny Van Poppel
8) Simone Ponzi
9) Fabio Aru
10) Rafael Valls

I did not expect to see Aru in this list. He was in my opinion one of the easiest riders to pick.

 

[Vroome.exe]

Re: Re:

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

I find it odd to say that with Cav will be better this year since he's 100% focused on the road, but not mention that Gaviria did both the olympics and the world championships on track. Gaviria has the top end speed to rival any sprinter in the world and, in my opinion, he's the best prospect for the classics this side of Tom Boonen. He crashed out of 100-280pts at MSR and missed more than two months with the Olympics, so he's already way better than his score indicates. He knows how to win, his team is loaded and has a long history of success at the races he's targeting, so if he's reasonably healthy I just can't see how he doesn't blow his 2016 score out of the water. Definitely one of the easiest selection I made this year.

Some good points here; and I agree with nearly all of it. I just think that he is not quite there yet, and maybe will need one or two more seasons before he reaches his full potential. I read that he's riding his first GT this season (Giro). That's a tough ask for any 22 year old if he plans to finish it; and it will be interesting to see a) how he does in that race, and b) how it affects his form for the rest of the season.

Also, with this being the last season for Boonen and with Terpstra, Stybar, Lampaert, Vakoc and Jungels all around - I'm a bit sceptical about how many chances he'll get in the classics. Also last year, he had no serious injury setbacks and no training problems - it's not a situation like with Degenkolb where he just has to stay on the bike for the year to double his points - he's actually got to improve his performances.

Combined with the high number of quality sprinters around now, I was thinking he would do well to get 1,200+
But you could be right, he's going to have a massive breakthrough year sometime soon, where he consistently challenges in the big races. Personally I think it will be 2018 or 2019, but there's certainly a chance it could be this year.

He had an injury and missed 1-2 months of racing + he focused on track, so even if he doesn't improve he will easily beat his score of last year. Plus I think a lot of people underestimate his position in the team, if you watched quickstep races last season you would know he already was one of their leaders everytime they raced. Gaviria is probably going to be their leader in most of the cobbled classics except RVV and PR this year because he can get over cobbles and is their fastest man. It's not like he has to fight for leadership with Stybar or Terpstra - he doesn't have to attack, just wait for the last 20 km and if he's still there, quickstep will try to bring him to the finish.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

I compared all of our selections against the selections of 10 well-established players (players who are either top-10 all-time ranking, top-10 average ranking, top-5 in 2016, or winner of a small CQ-game in 2016).

Based on that comparison, I was able to make 2 small rankings:

Over-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did not select, but 'average' players did)

1) Caleb Ewan
2) Edoardo Zardini
3) Pierre Rolland
4) Silvan Dillier
5) Miguel Angel Lopez Moreno

Under-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did select, but 'average' players did not)

1) Boris Vallee
2) Riccardo Minali
3) Tiago Machado
4) Mike Teunissen
5) Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
6) Michal Kwiatkowski
7) Danny Van Poppel
8) Simone Ponzi
9) Fabio Aru
10) Rafael Valls

Interesting. Which players' teams did you use for comparison?

This reminds me of a rider I forgot to comment on: Lopez. He was in my initial selection, but then he got his injury which will sideline him for some time and definitely affect his season and then I came to the conclusion that I had to dismiss him (and him riding the Tour isn't a good thing either imo). I'm interesting in hearing some thoughts on him from some of the players that did end up picking him.