The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[escartin]

I have 16 of the 18 most popular picks which is reassuring. The only ones I don't have are Felline who I totally missed and I don't like that and Gaudu who I took out at the last minute.

My team:

GREIPEL André 735
NIBALI Vincenzo 693
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 602
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 561
ZAKARIN Ilnur 473
BOUHANNI Nacer 441
COQUARD Bryan 415
ARU Fabio 400
LAMBRECHT Bjorg 337
KITTEL Marcel 296
DUNBAR Eddie 278
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 263
SAJNOK Szymon 196
THEUNS Edward 191
PADUN Mark 191
GANNA Filippo 190
STANNARD Robert 172
MEINTJES Louis 141
CAVENDISH Mark 125
BAKELANTS Jan 120
VLIEGEN Loïc 109
OLIVEIRA Rui Filipe Alves 100
BRÄNDLE Matthias 82
SWIFT Ben 72
GUARNIERI Jacopo 68
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 61
BETTIOL Alberto 50
AFFINI Edoardo 41
CAÑELLAS SANCHEZ Xavier 40
BOOM Lars 37
RIVERA SERRANO Kevin 20
EVENEPOEL Remco 0
VAKOC Petr 0

Guarnieri is my unique pick which I was definitely not expecting.

Other seemingly left field choices with low popularity:

Greipel, Coquard - thought they would both be much more popular, both should be all over the French races and as that is somewhere where Greipel has not been before I am expecting good results whilst although Coquard was a good pick last year I think he can been even better this year. Yes, there are other sprinters who can take those points but I also have one of them in Bouhanni.
Sergio Henao - not at all surprised that he is not more popular :lol: , change of team following worst full season with Sky, a risk as he is not getting younger, I don't know what races he will do and the new team is UAE but let's see, he was in then out and back in my team so he is not a pick I am 100% confident about
Dunbar - young, I think he could pick up enough points all over the place to be a good pick, like Henao he was in, out then back in my team, if I had spotted Felline I doubt I would have picked him, let's see who does better (Felline probably)
Szymon Sajnok, Rui Filipe Alves Oliveira - both young, first year in WT, both have potential, both could be anything, there were definitely safer choices...
Matthias Brandle - poor season, change of team, pro-conti, should have a lot of point-scoring opportunities
Xavier Canellas Sanchez - another one who could be anything but with Caja Rural and the Spanish calendar which is a good sign, another good sign is that he is not a unique pick and somebody has already complained that he is not a unique pick :lol:

as you can see, I am not too sure about a couple of those picks, especially having investigated some of the popular picks that I totally missed (eg. Felline, Barbier, Kump, Rowe, De Plus).
some of the popular picks that I decided not to pick for various reasons included Trentin, Kamna, Halvorsen (I had him last year, not sure why I ignored him this time), Planckaert (I might regret this), Tony Martin, Porte and Landa.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

My team looks quite a bit different to the rest but I'm happy to pass on a lot of the common picks

MOSCON Gianni - is there anything he can't do ? Points machine if he can behave. Also partly for the laughs
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio - the more I thought about it the more I thought why not ? Improving fast
SCHACHMANN Maximilian - risky to invest big in a rider leaving QST but only room for one Alaphilippe on any team
ZAKARIN Ilnur - fairly dull "by-numbers" pick
SENECHAL Florian - with the exodus at QST some there are going to improve a lot and he seems a likely type
ARU Fabio - one of the last picks on my team, could be even worse but I liked the fact he refused to quit the Vuelta
KEUKELEIRE Jens - needs to bounce back but he was unlucky the year before which was his best year
MARECZKO Jakub - don't really rate him but he won't be short of opportunities on that team
KUDUS Merhawi Gebremedhin - I'm intrigued by Astana taking him, he could leave all previous pro form well behind
FELLINE Fabio - I tried to avoid sick/injured riders although I think/hope his problem is less serious than some
COSNEFROY Benoit - great to see him going the right way after his WC win
DE PLUS Laurens - that early Vuelta ramp finish where he was in the shake up with Valv and Kwiat was an eye-opener
CAICEDO CEPEDA Jonathan Klever - amigo de Carapaz
PLANCKAERT Baptiste - had him last year but he was Katushed so giving him another chance
MEZGEC Luka - guessing he's going to get chances now because there's nobody left to lead out, still only 30 !?!
BAUHAUS Phil - had him last year, one of my worst picks again this year, already thinking Theuns was the pick here
MEINTJES Louis - forum favourite
BAKELANTS Jan - last year was as good as could be hoped in the circumstances, hopefully not Dumo train fodder
RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr - had him last year and showed just about enough to be retained
SCOTSON Miles - will he fit in on that team ? toyed with Kung as well but Scotson is cheaper
BARBIER Rudy - they have a lot of sprinters so this could end up a Pelluchi-type disappointment
BARCELO ARAGON Fernando - a few results in the summer really stand out
MONTAGUTI Matteo - the legs seem to remain good enough to score well if he still wants it
ROWE Luke - looks back on track now
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin - I know it's Cofidis but ...
ALLEGAERT Piet - think he may have earned some better chances now, memorable Roubaix debut two years ago
MÜLLER Patrick - just seems to be a lot better than his CQ points have indicated so far
BETTIOL Alberto - fairly dull "by-numbers" pick
BOOM Lars - fairly dull "by-numbers" pick
SENNI Manuel - first year at Bardiani was a write-off but finished the season ok
JARAMILLO DIEZ Daniel Alexander - Manzana starting to get the hang of Euro racing so maybe a good move for him
VAN STAEYEN Michael - if he still has any speed he could get plenty of chances
MUÑOZ GIRALDO Daniel Felipe - Colombian on Savio's team so he must be a world-beater

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

My team with reasonings:

LANDA MEANA Mikel 779 24
A bit too expensive to be certain but IF he is on top of his game in both Giro and Tour he can be a very good pick. The problem is, of course, that the Giro will be highly contested and that a Giro Tour double usually comes at the expense of one week races, so he is unlikely to defend his points from Tirreno and País Vasco. Please stay upright, Mikel!


EWAN Caleb 776 18
Only 18 picks? That's few. Last year he demonstrated to be better endurance-wise than usually, and he will also do the Giro Tour double which could mean a big load of points (especially compared to last year, where he was robbed of the opportunity to score there). Hopefully, he will be off to a good start in the Australian races + he has a chance of winning MSR. To me, he seems like a far better pick than Gaviria who was a bit cheaper but who has had an infinitely worse change of teams than Ewan.


NIBALI Vincenzo 693 87
This is a pick I am very uncertain about. I know many seem to think that his crash on Alpe d'Huez prevented him from a sure-fire Tour-Vuelta-Worlds-Lombardia quadruple or something like that, but I really don't think he would have won anything of that (except Lombardia, perhaps). A large amount of his points from last year was from a fluke MSR win which he won't repeat. The Giro Tour double can hopefully make him go above last year's score, and then he can go above 1000 points in the fall. I don't see him doubling last year's score.


ANDERSEN Søren Kragh 589 5
Last year, he was sick during the classics. This year, he will have his breakthrough there, win the BinckBank Tour, a Tour stage and be top 3 at the Worlds. Plus, he has only been picked by five people (yay!).


TRENTIN Matteo 581 31
Injured in the spring last year, where he is the sole captain for his team. That should give him a bunch of points. Maybe he will also have the Vuelta as a stomping ground like in 2017, and the Worlds look good for him too.


VAN DER POEL Mathieu 539 19
Okay, he got many points last year as a non-professional, but this year he will mix it up in the spring classics, and I don't see him not being among the five best there. The guy is just a pure-blooded monster. The only problem with him is of course his limited focus on the road, and he needs to be really, really good if he is to double his score.


KÜNG Stefan 437 14
I'm not too happy about this pick because I don't much like him and don't really think he will be much higher this year. But he rides on a team with very few riders higher in the hierarchy and may thus prove himself in the classics. He also could win the BinckBank Tour and is certain to get a lot of points on time trials throughout the season.


ARU Fabio 400 95
I don't have much faith in him but 400 was just too low to let him pass. The new DSs on the team should get more out of him. Anyway, it wouldn't matter much with there being 95 teams who have picked him.


REICHENBACH Sébastien 319 2
One of my two rarest picks. He has gotten 566 points in a year before, when he also rode as Pinot's shadow. This year, he may get a leading opportunity in the Vuelta. The good thing about him is that he usually keeps going when Pinot doesn't need him any more. The bad thing about him is that he always rides with Pinot. Not my best pick initially, but it could be very important for me if he had a good season since he is such a rare pick.


KITTEL Marcel 296 98
Just too cheap to not include. He's in a contract season and rumours are that he's much more motivated than last year. But 98 picks renders him a bit unimportant. I didn't pick Cavendish, although he was cheaper. I don't think Cavendish will ever win a bike race again. Kittel still may regain his level.


CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 263 89
A very likeable rider at a very low price. I didn't think twice about him. iVamos Chavito!


FELLINE Fabio 257 63
If he has recovered from his disease and can find his level from a couple of seasons back, he could give a very, very nice profit.


SPILAK Simon 256 10
The last many years, he has gained two-year contracts, been bad in his first year and good in his contract year. This is a contract year, and if he wants to keep earning good money, he needs to step up. He usually does just that and is still not too old. The problem about him of course is that there only exist four races where he can do something (Paris-Nice, País Vasco, Romandie and Suisse), so it's make or break in the spring. He is a rarer pick than I would have thought. It's very realistic that he more than doubles his score.


COSNEFROY Benoit 229 15
In Paris-Tours he showed his promise, and if he can be at that level for the whole of 2019, he could be a very good pick.


BAUHAUS Phil 196 37
Very low price for a sprinter of his speed. Now he's at a team where he will be the top sprinter. He should easily more than double his score.


PADUN Mark 191 30
A very exciting prospect. He really shone in one of the races that would give him the least attention in here: The Hammer Series (I don't remember which). He should rise steadily and surely and is very likely to gain many more points next year.


MOSCHETTI Matteo 144 27
He is fast and likely to get good support in his team. But I don't expect him to among my best picks.


BAKELANTS Jan 120 38
A bit of a hail mary. He's unlikely to get as much freedom at Sunweb. But he is very cheap for a rider of his calibre.


RODRIGUEZ GARAICOECHEA Oscar 99 7
If he is stronger than Majka and Teuns on La Camperona, he should mix it up with the best in all the Spanish spring races who all have weak line-ups. I'm very surprised about the small amount of picks of him. Of course, he's unlikely to repeat in the Vuelta but that performance should give him the confidence to ride an awesome 2019.


GIBBONS Ryan 96 9
In 2017, he gained 4 times as many points as in 2018. Now, he's in a contract year, and even if it's unlikely he will win Tour de Langkawi again, he should do much better in 2019. He showed some promising things in the Vuelta of last year but couldn't translate them into results.


ROWE Luke 70 28
The guy will only get points in the spring classics. His best seasons have been about 300 points, and even if he doesn't go over that, he would still be a good bargain.


ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 61 46
He completely crumbled last year, but at Cofidis he should get an easier schedule than usually, and if he can refind his true level that could translate to many points and possible overall victory in races like Tour de l'Ain.


BETTIOL Alberto 50 92
Top 4s in Tour of Poland, Bretagne Classic, Québec and top 10 in Montréal in 2016 and 50 points in 2018!?! Now he's back where he apparently belongs, and he should score at least ten times as many points as last year.


BOOM Lars 37 66
Well, he can't do worse than last year, can he? A must-have.


INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 12 27
A long shot (his fate could be the same of the Swedish tennis player Robin Söderling), but at the price of 12 measly points, I couldn't not go for him.


CELANO Danilo 10 7
My only non-professional rider. He got 170 points on 2017, so he could be a good pick. If not, I'll probably survive.


VAKOC Peter 0 73
To me, the most obvious pick in the game. Free and riding for the best team.


EVENEPOEL Remco 0 88
Another free rider. The hype is insane but so has his level been. I'm really excited to seeing him in the UAE Tour. It should be a perfect race for him. Non-dangerous flat stages on wide roads and power to weight shootouts on a couple of unipuerto stages. His lack of experience with riding in a peloton shouldn't be put too much to the test there.


QUINTERO NOREÑA Carlos Julian 0 2
At some point I just went through all the pro teams, looking for zero-pointers.


FOURNIER Marc 0 5
He won Circuit Cycliste Sarthe a couple of years ago but scored zero points in 2018. That should go a bit up for 2019.


DE CLERCQ Bart 0 3
Only three picks? He missed the entire 2018 season and underwent an extensive hip replacement surgery in October, so he's obviously an uncertain pick. But the guy almost won the Tour of Poland in 2015 and is not too old yet.


KÖNIG Leopold 0 22
He's probably not going to top 5 the Giro this time around, but if he can get going again, he is a free must-have. An encouraging fact is that he at least was in cycling clothes for the team photos before the season.


BYRIEL IVERSEN Rasmus 0 7
Nobody really knows anything about him. But he was one of only four WorldTour zero pointers and as a compatriot of mine, I'm quite intrigued about him.

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

I wanted all three and ended up with just Conci and Moschetti. I am expecting a good year for Conci. Moschetti is obviously very talented and I followed him a lot last year so I felt I had to include him, but to be honest I am not too sure he will be a great pick. So a bit surprised he is on so many teams.

Yeah, I thought of really having Moschetti on my team again. But then I have Touze, Kanter, Bauhaus, Mareczko... on top of Ewan, Kittel and Gaviria. I thought I had enough sprinters by that point

And then it just came down to a matter of space for me, so I picked Conci out of the three. I also thought it would be hard for him to even reach 144p or much more, but I might be proven wrong.

 

[HelgeBlendet]

My team this year has basically all of those highly popular picks bar Nibali. I really tried to fit him in and I think he'll improve, but in the end the Double-talk scared me away.

# teams| name| pts
98 KITTEL Marcel 296
95 ARU Fabio 400
92 BETTIOL Alberto 50
89 CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 263
86 EVENEPOEL Remco 0
82 GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 602
79 CAVENDISH Mark 125
79 MEINTJES Louis 141
73 VAKOC Petr 0
69 ZAKARIN Ilnur 473
63 FELLINE Fabio 257
61 THEUNS Edward 191
57 GAUDU David 299
50 BOUHANNI Nacer 441
46 ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 61
38 BAKELANTS Jan 120
38 BAUHAUS Phil 196
38 KÄMNA Lennard 37
36 BARBIER Rudy 90
36 O'CONNOR Ben 219
31 TRENTIN Matteo 581
30 RIVERA SERRANO Kevin 20
27 MOSCHETTI Matteo 144
24 DE PLUS Laurens 226
12 KANTER Max 200
11 PÖSTLBERGER Lukas 133
10 NIZZOLO Giacomo 444
10 PHILIPSEN Jasper 357
9 BONIFAZIO Niccolo 234
8 GALLOPIN Tony 534
8 HOFSTEDE Lennard 40
5 ROSA Diego 200
2 VAN DEN BERG Julius 111

 

[Squire]

@ tobydawq, you already sound like a seasoned CQ veteran with your reasonings.

SPILAK Simon 256 10
The last many years, he has gained two-year contracts, been bad in his first year and good in his contract year. This is a contract year, and if he wants to keep earning good money, he needs to step up. He usually does just that and is still not too old. The problem about him of course is that there only exist four races where he can do something (Paris-Nice, País Vasco, Romandie and Suisse), so it's make or break in the spring. He is a rarer pick than I would have thought. It's very realistic that he more than doubles his score.

I like this pick. I was also tempted by contract year Spilak. But he just seems to be on a steady decline, even including the contract years. And with global warming, Spilak is always a risk.

LANDA MEANA Mikel 779 24
A bit too expensive to be certain but IF he is on top of his game in both Giro and Tour he can be a very good pick. The problem is, of course, that the Giro will be highly contested and that a Giro Tour double usually comes at the expense of one week races, so he is unlikely to defend his points from Tirreno and País Vasco. Please stay upright, Mikel!

You're thinking very much like me when it comes to race schedule. I also agree with your skepticism about Nibali, which I outlined in a previous post. Contrary to you, I was skeptical enough to not pick him.

You have a solid team and I like a lot of your picks, especially Padun and the rare Reichenbach.

I'm not too sure of Küng though. Obviously massively talented, but unproven in the very pointy end of the classics, and that's where he has to score if he is to be a good pick. Pickings are slim for time trialists these days.

Oscar Rodriguez is a curious one. I also thought he would be more popular. I decided against him though, a bit too much of a wildcard. Strange things can happen in breakaway stages. But he could be a gem. I read some encouraging interviews with him.

Rasmus Byriel Iversen is a nice enough pick; there should be enough Hammer series for him to score some points even if he doesn't set the world alight. I'm thinking the same about Evenepoel. I'm a bit more worried about some of your other cheap/zero-pointer riders. I think that may be the weakness in your team, alongside possibly Küng. More than a few of Intxausti, Celano, Vakoc, Quintero, Fournier, De Clerq and König are going to be complete busts, and the upside of those who actually do something isn't all that great.

Since I haven't followed the sport as closely the past couple of years I'm not really that familiar with the young talents out there. I have mainly gone by various sites that have talked about riders to look out for in 2019 or supertalents that people expect will make it big this year.

Good to see you back at the forum!

I strongly suspect that you have listened to the Procycling.no podcast

 

[tobydawq]

@ tobydawq, you already sound like a seasoned CQ veteran with your reasonings.

SPILAK Simon 256 10
The last many years, he has gained two-year contracts, been bad in his first year and good in his contract year. This is a contract year, and if he wants to keep earning good money, he needs to step up. He usually does just that and is still not too old. The problem about him of course is that there only exist four races where he can do something (Paris-Nice, País Vasco, Romandie and Suisse), so it's make or break in the spring. He is a rarer pick than I would have thought. It's very realistic that he more than doubles his score.

I like this pick. I was also tempted by contract year Spilak. But he just seems to be on a steady decline, even including the contract years. And with global warming, Spilak is always a risk.

LANDA MEANA Mikel 779 24
A bit too expensive to be certain but IF he is on top of his game in both Giro and Tour he can be a very good pick. The problem is, of course, that the Giro will be highly contested and that a Giro Tour double usually comes at the expense of one week races, so he is unlikely to defend his points from Tirreno and País Vasco. Please stay upright, Mikel!

You're thinking very much like me when it comes to race schedule. I also agree with your skepticism about Nibali, which I outlined in a previous post. Contrary to you, I was skeptical enough to not pick him.

You have a solid team and I like a lot of your picks, especially Padun and the rare Reichenbach.

I'm not too sure of Küng though. Obviously massively talented, but unproven in the very pointy end of the classics, and that's where he has to score if he is to be a good pick. Pickings are slim for time trialists these days.

Oscar Rodriguez is a curious one. I also thought he would be more popular. I decided against him though, a bit too much of a wildcard. Strange things can happen in breakaway stages. But he could be a gem. I read some encouraging interviews with him.

Rasmus Byriel Iversen is a nice enough pick; there should be enough Hammer series for him to score some points even if he doesn't set the world alight. I'm thinking the same about Evenepoel. I'm a bit more worried about some of your other cheap/zero-pointer riders. I think that may be the weakness in your team, alongside possibly Küng. More than a few of Intxausti, Celano, Vakoc, Quintero, Fournier, De Clerq and König are going to be complete busts, and the upside of those who actually do something isn't all that great.

Regarding the zero pointers: This could very well be where it's disadvantageous for me not to have played before. I didn't know how many zero pointers would be the norm, and the only thing I had to go by was the team size range (from 26 to 33). So I figured I'd set a solid team of a little less than 30 riders and then scour CQ for zero pointers to fill up my squad. I don't expect much from Celano, Quintero or Fournier either, but the others could be good IF they can bounce back from all the injuries (and I agree, there is a big rask that the majority won't). Anyway, I still find it unlikely that it's the cheapest riders who will decide in the end who is successful. For example, if Søren Kragh gets a true breakthrough year, that will offset all disappointments the bad, cheap riders can give me.

I'm not too pleased about having Nibali and Küng either, and Reichenbach is a bit of a boring low risk, low reward pick which I'm not too pleased with, either. On the other hand, I don't think Evenepoel will only be relevant through Hammer races. But let's see.

I did end at exactly 7500 points but I only spent about half an hour setting my team. Perhaps that was too little when I see how much time some of you others have spent.

 

[Squire]

Regarding the zero pointers: This could very well be where it's disadvantageous for me not to have played before. I didn't know how many zero pointers would be the norm, and the only thing I had to go by was the team size range (from 26 to 33). So I figured I'd set a solid team of a little less than 30 riders and then scour CQ for zero pointers to fill up my squad. I don't expect much from Celano, Quintero or Fournier either, but the others could be good IF they can bounce back from all the injuries (and I agree, there is a big rask that the majority won't). Anyway, I still find it unlikely that it's the cheapest riders who will decide in the end who is successful. For example, if Søren Kragh gets a true breakthrough year, that will offset all disappointments the bad, cheap riders can give me.

An extra 200 points from a cheap rider can sometimes do great things for you in the rankings, but as you say, it doesn't have to mean that much. If you look at last year, I was lucky enough that my team (which placed 2nd) got a good return from almost all my cheapest riders. But the winning team, on the other hand, didn't have that much success with a lot of the cheapos. They had Madouas though, which basically rendered the failures insignificant (along with a couple of other great picks that I didn't have).

 

[Squire]

Leaving Kittel off the team needs balls, no doubt about that. So hats off to you, Squire. I do think it's a mistake though. In my opinion Kittel was simply lazy last year, and that will change in the contract year 2019.

I decided 2018 was the last year I picked Betancur, and going with that theme, I threw out Kittel and Cav (who majorly let me down last year after I was close to leaving him out but kept him) too.

Your team looks cool. I'm surprised you didn't go with Pogi. I was very close to making Jhojan Garcia a non-unique pick for you. But in the end I decided to go for Pronskiy, who I then switched for Valls in a PM to skidmark 5 minutes before the deadline.

 

[Tigerion]

Well it looks like I ended up with 3 unique picks
WANG Meiyin
COVI Alessandro
DASSONVILLE Flavien

No really strong feelings for any of them and Dassonville was literally just a pick that had low enough numbers to fit in the final team

 

[Nathanptz]

ARU Fabio 400
Didn't have quite the season he hoped for in 2018, and sure to bounce back now. No-brainer for me.
ASSELMAN Jesper 24
I tend to always let my nationalism take the upperhand in at least 1-2 picks, and that happened again this year. Asselman was out a big part of 2018 with injury and came back near the end of the season at the BinckBanktour (where he helped Taco to a victory), scored only 24 and if he gets back to his old form he will surely up that again.
BAKELANTS Jan 120
Another one who was out injured and is sure to bounce back with more than 120 points. Don't like the move to Sunweb that much, but still a good puncheur so will get his chances even there. No-brainer
BETTIOL Alberto 50
Had a very good 2016 and good 2017 but followed that up with a horrific 2018 at BMC, now he is back at EF Drapac and if he finds his form again he is sure to get more than 50 points. No-brainer as well.
BOOM Lars 37
Another Dutchie who had an awful 2018 as well, now back to PCT with Roompot and hoping he can rack up some points in the smaller races, don't like him that much but a lot of room to improve, hence the pick.
BOUHANNI Nacer 441
When Booboo is in his best form and mindset he is a very very good sprinter, didn't have it last year but I reckon 2019 he will really improve and get at least 1 stage win at the TDF, can also rack up loads of points in smaller French races.
CAPIOT Amaury 191
Had him last year, this year again. Expected him to be on a lot of teams but found out he is only on 3(!!) teams, made me smile ofcourse. Showed some legs near the end of the season and if he can do a full season I think he will score loads of points, a very solid rider after all. Just bugged by injuries, surely bad luck has to stop sometime.
CAVENDISH Mark 125
Too cheap to leave hanging, underestimated him before and wasn't happening again, might be really good and might not be, not too big of a deal since he only cost me 125.
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 263
Very talented lad, had a rough year last year and hoping he can get back, because who doesn't want that smiley shining bright again. He surely has the potential, I just hope it will come out this year (again).
CORT NIELSEN Magnus 581
Only 5 picks, so surely a risk. I am expecting a big year for the Dane hence why I picked him, good classics, sprints and uphill sprints will get him a lot of points, I hope.
DE DECKER Alfdan 76
Young sprinter who joined Wanty, I like the dude a lot and think he will get his opportunities and take them with both hands.
EVENEPOEL Remco 0
Well, smashed it at Juniors and made the step to QS, had room to fill up my team with 0-pointers and he was the first name that came to mind, might do well or might just be learning in his first year. Points are ofcourse welcome but not necessary.
FELLINE Fabio 257
Bugged by the Pfeiffers disease but now back at full force, has a full schedule so lots of opportunities to score. Very allround lad and think he will smash it again in 2019.
GIBSON Matthew 36
Another young sprinter joining Burgos, a team with not the best sprinters. This should mean that he gets a lot of chances to go for himself and he has the talent to score there, very cheap and hopefully a good year ahead.
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 12
Big gamble, had him last year and that didn't pay off. He said he has recovered from his illness and wants to shine again at Euskadi, they have a good calendar for him to come back and hopefully score well. He deserves that.
KELDERMAN Wilco 678
Maybe nationalism, maybe gut, maybe logic. IF he has a full season without big injuries and a good GT he will surely top his score from last year. Has huge potential and think 2019 might be his year. Only 8 picks, which makes it even more exciting.
KEUKELEIRE Jens 351
Great rider, bad year. Think he will do just fine in the classics and 1-day classics. Sold him at other game so felt like I had to have him somewhere, and this was a good place .
KITTEL Marcel 296
Does this need an explanation? Huge potential, not the best team but veeeery fast. Hopefully he has the right mindset now.
MCLAY Daniel 88
Another sprinter who massively underperformed last year, think he will do just fine and certainly double his score from last year.
MEINTJES Louis 141
Most boring rider of the pack, but if he can get back to his old steady level he is sure to score 500-ish points.
MOSCHETTI Matteo 144
1 neopro I am really excited about, at Trek he will get enough chances and I feel like he could be the next Jakobsen/Hodeg from this year.
NIBALI Vincenzo 693
No-brainer, had a bad year and if he finds his form/legs again and does well at the GT(s?) he will score enough points.
PAASSCHENS Mathijs 36
Unique pick! :razz: a Dutch (oops) sprinter who can handle a tough parcour. Joined Wallonie Bruxelles and hoping he gets some chances there, ofcourse a gamble but should be able to get 100-200 points this year.
PELUCCHI Matteo 168
Stepped back to Androni where he should get a lot more chances as a leader and he has showed he is very fast at a bunch sprint, so think he will rack up plenty of points this year with no-one ahead in the pickorder.
PHILIPSEN Jasper 357
Risky considering last year he already scored 357 but he is my 2nd Jakobsen follow-up and at UAE he should get plenty of chances. He surely has the speed and talent to get a lot of solid results and therefore get a lot of points.
PLANCKAERT Baptiste 206
Failed at Katusha, now back at Wallonie hopefully he will be able to repeat his 2016, half of that would even be brilliant. He has the talent and now the opportunity to rock this year. I have good faith 2019 will be a good year for Baptiste.
THEUNS Edward 191
Hate his voice, but with only 191p last year and back at his good old Trek he is sure to bounce back and score lots of points, could be a very good classics rider/sprinter.
TRENTIN Matteo 581
Hoping the EU champ jersey will give him wings and he will smash it this year, I have a good feeling he will be able to do that
VACEK Karel 0
Had room to fill up with 0-pointers and he was often the 2nd best after Evenepoel when it went uphilll. Hoping he can score some good points in the U23 events but ofcourse not necessary.
VAKOC Petr 0
At the best team in the world, and making his comeback this year. Always loved him as a rider and really hoping he gets back to his old level, at 0 worth a shot.
VAN ASBROECK Tom 95
He went to ICA, where all the sprinters seem to go. BUT he has the opportunity to lead in the spring campaign and think he will do well there, easily topping his score from last year.
WALSCHEID Maximilian 389
Showed a glimpse of his huge potential last year, and a risky bet at 389 but I reckon he, when there is a bunch gallop and he is there, will smash all of his competitors. Crazy strong lad and 2019 will be a good year for him. Hoping he is the Ackermann of 2019.
ZAKARIN Ilnur 473
Last but not least, the Russian beast. Very good GC-rider and in a good season he can get a top 5 at a GT or even two and ofcourse score well in short stage races. This should easily increase his score from last year and I think he will have a good year.

Was steady in the top 15 last year until the end of the season came near and then lost a lot of positions. Target is to now get a top 10 and end it there this year, have a lot of faith in this team and think it is a realistic prognosis.

 

[DFA123]

I went with the following team. Looking at it now it's kind of boring.


LANDA 779 - Top 3 in Giro + Stages at Tour – coming of age as one day rider as well
EWAN 776 - Chances to win classic + better team support at Gts
NIBALI 693 - Probably past it, but still capable of 1000+
GAVIRIA 602 - An existential battle between insane talent and terrible bike handling. Could go either way.
TRENTIN 581 - Placings in classics and more sprint chances without Ewan
ZAKARIN 473 - c.f. Gaviria
BOUHANNI441 - Head over heart pick
ARU 400 - Could gurn his way to 1000
KITTEL 296 - Still the fastest in the world on his day
DUNBAR 278 - Gamble: could be swamped at Sky, could do a Bernal
CHAVES 263 - Not sure how he managed to accumulate as many points as he did last year – can’t get any worse
FELLINE 257 - Not convinced - mishaps seem to follow him around
PLANCKAERT Baptiste 206 - Flat track bully returning to his old school
THEUNS 191 - Has escaped the CQ abyss that is Sunweb
HALVORSEN 162 - Should continue to get better
EG 158 - Wanted Lambrecht but couldn't afford him
MEINTJES 141 - Should top 10 a GT and a few stage races
CAVENDISH 125 - Finished at top level, but still good for 300-400 given inexplicable backing by his team
BAKELANTS 120 - Change of team could give a boost
CIMOLAI 88 - Could do something in some of the 1000s of Italian one dayers
BOSWELL 76 - No idea why picked him – just a name I recognised amongst the cheap dross
SWIFT 72 - Should place well in a few classics
ROWE 70 - Should place well in a few classics
WILLIAMS 63 - New to WT & young
NAESEN Lawrence 51 - Antonio Nibali and Juraj Sagan were too expensive
BETTIOL 50 - Best of the cheapos
MORTON 41 - Moved to team better suite for his talents
BOU COMPANY 30 - Saw him out training a couple of weeks ago and he looked focused (tenuous)
SCOTSON 7 - Random cheap pick
GAROSIO 6 - Random cheap pick
EVENEPOEL 0 - Probably won’t do much, but still best value free pick
VAKOC 0 - Nothing to lose, potentially a lot to gain
KÖNIG 0 - Nothing to lose, potentially a lot to gain

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

CORT NIELSEN Magnus 581
Only 5 picks, so surely a risk. I am expecting a big year for the Dane hence why I picked him, good classics, sprints and uphill sprints will get him a lot of points, I hope.

I also considered him but decided for Søren Kragh instead (8 points more expensive). Cort will probably score more points, and he should begin showcasing himself in the Classics next year.

He lacks something in the fight for position which means he cannot participate in as many sprints as one would wish, but at least he doesn't have to waste his time leading out that god-awful sprinter that is Riccardo Minali next year.

He is also a good bet for a very high placing at the Worlds.

 

[Popchu]

BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander
NIBALI Vincenzo
LUTSENKO Alexey
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
ZAKARIN Ilnur
BOUHANNI Nacer
ARU Fabio
KITTEL Marcel
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
BONIFAZIO Niccolo
CAICEDO CEPEDA Jonathan Klever
HALVORSEN Kristoffer
PANTANO GOMEZ Jarlinson
MEINTJES Louis
CAVENDISH Mark
SWIFT Ben
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
BETTIOL Alberto
CUMMINGS Stephen
LIETAER Eliot
BOOM Lars
RIVERA SERRANO Kevin
OSORIO CARVAJAL Alejandro
GULDHAMMER POULSEN Rasmus
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat
CELANO Danilo
BOGDANOVICS Maris
QUINTERO NOREÑA Carlos Julian
FERASSE Thibault
EVENEPOEL Remco
VAKOC Petr
KÖNIG Leopold

Everything below Rivera are riders just to have as much as possible riders in my team, although some of these could surprise. But someone like Konig looks completely done to me, but I didn't want to look further.

First time without Betancur. Very sad about that.

Lutsenko is an irrational pick, I should've picked MVDP. Still, I expect a lot from Lutsenko but he's not the best pick for this kind of game.

For the rest, no idea what to think. Bernal and Quintana is overkill, maybe?

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

THEUNS 191 - Has escaped the CQ abyss that is Sunweb

BAKELANTS 120 - Change of team could give a boost

So, where is it Bakelants has changed teams to?

Also, Cimolai seems like a good pick. I would definitely have picked him at that price if he didn't ride for the 15 sprinters team but instead had switched to one of the Italian professional continental squads.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

THEUNS 191 - Has escaped the CQ abyss that is Sunweb

BAKELANTS 120 - Change of team could give a boost

So, where is it Bakelants has changed teams to?

Good point! I don't have high hopes for Bakelants tbh.

 

[Vitapen]

Surprised that no one else has Koen Bouwman. Will have to cheer for him this year.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Surprised that no one else has Koen Bouwman. Will have to cheer for him this year.

I considered him as well as a bunch of other Jumbo riders as I think they have one of the most interesting teams this year (De Plus, De Tier, Powless, Roosen, Teunissen, Tolhoek, Van der Hoorn etc.) but in the end I ended up with only one Jumbo rider (I think): De Plus.

I'll do some sort of writeup on my team tomorrow if I get the time to do so. This is always a very interesting time of the year when all teams are revealed and analysis are done Good luck to everyone.

 

[Kazistuta]

I had De Plus on my initial team, as I really like him, but I think he will be used a lot as domestique for the big3 gc guys in Lotto.

Just like I think (and according to interviews he thinks so himself too) Bakelants is employed by Sunweb mainly to be a guardian angel for Dumo.

 

[skidmark]

Re:

Below is my team and some thoughts.


POWER Robert 363 - 6th at SB and won two other one-day races. Changed team from Mitchelton-Scott to Sunweb for 2019. Only 23 years old. He is only on 5 teams, so really hope he gets it going at Sunweb

KANTER Max 200 - Another young rider with a good sprint.

FRANKINY Kilian 138 - From BMC to Groupama this year. Young climber with potential. My only unique pick

VERVAEKE Louis 66 - Still only 25. A lot of races he left and had to DNF or DNS right in the end of them, last year. Catalunya was his biggest achievement last season. I think he can get some better results this year. Will probably be riding in a supporting role most of the times though.

First, that is cool that you got Frankiny with a unique pick. I didn't consider him seriously this year, but looking at his situation, sometimes a change of team and calendar can unlock things for a developing rider, so definitely worth a shot. For the Sunweb riders - I strongly considered picking alot of them, they have a bunch of young talent like Storer, Hamilton, Hindley, etc... but therein lies the problem. They've got their GC guys in Dumoulin, Oomen, Kelderman, and they've got their classics guys in Matthews, Andersen... which of the remaining opportunities go to whom? It's hard to divine into who will get chances and who will be used for the leaders. Power might fit into an interesting niche, as he showed himself a good GC rider in his youth but has really done well as a CQ pick in punchy mid-tier one-day races. So he could be a good pick. Just hard to say with that team, I find.

 

[skidmark]

Popularity part 2:

I don't know if you have an easy way of finding out on which teams the mistakes have been made, but I spot an EVENPOEL Remco, an EVENEPOEL Remco (a space after the first name), an INTXAUSTI Beñat (no Elorriaga) and two KONIG Leopold (no umlaut) in your list.

Yeah, Armchair Cyclist helpfully PM'd me several changes including these and some other obscure zero-pointers... I'll be making the changes today, but after today if anybody notices any issues, let me know. Those zero-pointers are hard to catch, I probably manually went through 90% of the teams I entered and especially looked for misspellings of EVENEPOEL (since I spelled it wrong initially on my team :redface: ) and "Peter" Vakoc, but at some point when you're entering over 100 teams it doesn't register. Thanks for pointing it out!

 

[Koronin]

As I have a fairly unique team I'll list my most popular riders that I choose.

Nibali - 87 - With his injury he lost the Tour and didn't have much of a Vuelta. There is potential for him to get reach just over 1,000 points. Felt I had to have him on my team.

Alberto Bettiol - 92 - Change of teams to EF Education First from BMC should improve his points.

Remco Evenepoel - 89 - He's my zero pointer so hoping for the best.

Ben Swift - 54 - at 72 points worth the gamble.

Mikel Landa - 24 - There is potential here. His first year with a team is typically worse than his second plus his second half of the season (even with a top 10 GC at the Tour) was destroyed by injuries.

Everyone else on my team is on 10 teams or less. My two riders on only 10 teams are:
Sepp Kuss - hoping his second year with Jumbo will bring more points.
Rafa Valls - Basically he fits on my team with the budget.

Cristian Munoz - 9 teams - at 13 points and first year World Tour he has potential and worked well for my budget.


As such the majority of my team is relatively low picked riders with 8 unique picks. All my sprinters are low picks as the higher picked sprinters although good bargains I just don't trust. I have more confidence in Coquard and Lobato to at least break even.

How this well end up playing out, who knows, but I suspect as long as Valverde has his typically consistent season I'll finish mid pack again.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

As I have a fairly unique team I'll list my most popular riders that I choose.

Nibali - 87 - With his injury he lost the Tour and didn't have much of a Vuelta. There is potential for him to get reach just over 1,000 points. Felt I had to have him on my team.

Alberto Bettiol - 92 - Change of teams to EF Education First from BMC should improve his points.

Remco Evenepoel - 89 - He's my zero pointer so hoping for the best.

Ben Swift - 54 - at 72 points worth the gamble.

Mikel Landa - 24 - There is potential here. His first year with a team is typically worse than his second plus his second half of the season (even with a top 10 GC at the Tour) was destroyed by injuries.

Everyone else on my team is on 10 teams or less. My two riders on only 10 teams are:
Sepp Kuss - hoping his second year with Jumbo will bring more points.
Rafa Valls - Basically he fits on my team with the budget.

Cristian Munoz - 9 teams - at 13 points and first year World Tour he has potential and worked well for my budget.


As such the majority of my team is relatively low picked riders with 8 unique picks. All my sprinters are low picks as the higher picked sprinters although good bargains I just don't trust. I have more confidence in Coquard and Lobato to at least break even.

How this well end up playing out, who knows, but I suspect as long as Valverde has his typically consistent season I'll finish mid pack again.

But why don't go for more? You will cheer for Valverde anyway and you know that he takes up more than two thirds of your budget and is very unlikely to give a profit of more than 10 percent if any at all so taking him effectively disqualifies you from a high finishing position.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

As I have a fairly unique team I'll list my most popular riders that I choose.

Nibali - 87 - With his injury he lost the Tour and didn't have much of a Vuelta. There is potential for him to get reach just over 1,000 points. Felt I had to have him on my team.

Alberto Bettiol - 92 - Change of teams to EF Education First from BMC should improve his points.

Remco Evenepoel - 89 - He's my zero pointer so hoping for the best.

Ben Swift - 54 - at 72 points worth the gamble.

Mikel Landa - 24 - There is potential here. His first year with a team is typically worse than his second plus his second half of the season (even with a top 10 GC at the Tour) was destroyed by injuries.

Everyone else on my team is on 10 teams or less. My two riders on only 10 teams are:
Sepp Kuss - hoping his second year with Jumbo will bring more points.
Rafa Valls - Basically he fits on my team with the budget.

Cristian Munoz - 9 teams - at 13 points and first year World Tour he has potential and worked well for my budget.


As such the majority of my team is relatively low picked riders with 8 unique picks. All my sprinters are low picks as the higher picked sprinters although good bargains I just don't trust. I have more confidence in Coquard and Lobato to at least break even.

How this well end up playing out, who knows, but I suspect as long as Valverde has his typically consistent season I'll finish mid pack again.

But why don't go for more? You will cheer for Valverde anyway and you know that he takes up more than two thirds of your budget and is very unlikely to give a profit of more than 10 percent if any at all so taking him effectively disqualifies you from a high finishing position.

True I'll cheer for him anyway. I'm going for his consistency and that with the hope of some of these other kids should put my team somewhere in the middle by the end.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

As I have a fairly unique team I'll list my most popular riders that I choose.

Nibali - 87 - With his injury he lost the Tour and didn't have much of a Vuelta. There is potential for him to get reach just over 1,000 points. Felt I had to have him on my team.

Alberto Bettiol - 92 - Change of teams to EF Education First from BMC should improve his points.

Remco Evenepoel - 89 - He's my zero pointer so hoping for the best.

Ben Swift - 54 - at 72 points worth the gamble.

Mikel Landa - 24 - There is potential here. His first year with a team is typically worse than his second plus his second half of the season (even with a top 10 GC at the Tour) was destroyed by injuries.

Everyone else on my team is on 10 teams or less. My two riders on only 10 teams are:
Sepp Kuss - hoping his second year with Jumbo will bring more points.
Rafa Valls - Basically he fits on my team with the budget.

Cristian Munoz - 9 teams - at 13 points and first year World Tour he has potential and worked well for my budget.


As such the majority of my team is relatively low picked riders with 8 unique picks. All my sprinters are low picks as the higher picked sprinters although good bargains I just don't trust. I have more confidence in Coquard and Lobato to at least break even.

How this well end up playing out, who knows, but I suspect as long as Valverde has his typically consistent season I'll finish mid pack again.

But why don't go for more? You will cheer for Valverde anyway and you know that he takes up more than two thirds of your budget and is very unlikely to give a profit of more than 10 percent if any at all so taking him effectively disqualifies you from a high finishing position.

True I'll cheer for him anyway. I'm going for his consistency and that with the hope of some of these other kids should put my team somewhere in the middle by the end.

Yes, but that was not what I was asking.

But nevermind.