The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[SafeBet]

I considered Matthews for a long time, but I only had room for one 1000+ pointer and Bernal looked the one with most upside to me.

 

[armchairclimber]

Well, I do have Schachmann as it happens. The other that I might have taken a punt on would have been Roglic. But I thought the gamble was too large and there were others (like Schachmann and Oomen) who I thought had bigger potential upsides.

 

[LaFlorecita]

First few points for me, 20 for Lucas Hamilton

 

[PremierAndrew]

I considered GVA Soler and Uran, but ultimately decided that the potential return either wasnt high enough given the investment

 

[Salvarani]

Re:

First few points for me, 20 for Lucas Hamilton

Yes, same for me

 

[Jancouver]

Which are the most surprising non-takers and would you take any of these if you knew they would be your unique pick?

I thought someone would take a punt on Matthews. Didn't have a great season, and the Worlds this year are made for him. His cost got a bit inflated by the Canadian double though.

I believe Schachmann has actually been picked a few times.

You are correct, Schachmann has been picked by six teams.

I must have misspelled his name when looking through the list.

 

[Kazistuta]

I was pretty hooked on Dan Martin, but in the end decided to pick cheaper guys like I usually do.

Just realised that this year 1/3 of my team is picked by less than 25 teams, which is very unusual (I almost always rank high in the popularity ranking). That gives me a lot to cheer for, and I have to take consolation in that, while watching the development of Boasson Hagen vs. Nibali.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

First few points for me, 20 for Lucas Hamilton

LaFlorecita attacking from far out...typical Alberto fashion...

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

NO LOVE for these CQ Top 100 riders.

Their results will not matter this year.

Which are the most surprising non-takers and would you take any of these if you knew they would be your unique pick?

I'm a bit surprised nobody went for Formolo, I think he has some upside left. I wouldn't be shocked if Bardet wins the Tour this year and that could push him towards 2000 points but even then, considering his price tag that may not be enough to be a good pick. The only one I would reconsider is Latour. If he continues to improve, he gets to do his own thing and a little luck I could see him finish around 1500 points. I think he'll be a super dom for Bardet most of the time though.

 

[Tonton]

NO LOVE for these CQ Top 100 riders.

Their results will not matter this year.

Which are the most surprising non-takers and would you take any of these if you knew they would be your unique pick?

Latour and Demare were on my wish list, just too expensive. I wanted Bardet too (and build a French super-team), but in that case it was more sentimental than a sound business decision. Romain places well in one-day spring races, he's a Tour contender, but he doesn't win much...risky investment.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

First few points for me, 20 for Lucas Hamilton

LaFlorecita attacking from far out...typical Alberto fashion...

 

[Koronin]

Re:

First few points for me, 20 for Lucas Hamilton

Nice. I should have a few points as well with Nicholas Schultz who finished right behind Hamilton.

 

[skidmark]

Hey, a few housekeeping things:

- just reading through the thread and wanted to respond to Jon Ezeitza... I did mention in my opening post about the name formatting, but of course it's a very long post so I can see how it wasn't front and center. Regardless, you know for the future now

On your team, Armchair Cyclist pointed out to me that there is no GHIRMAY Biniam in the CQ database, but there is a HAILU Biniam Girmay... is that the correct rider? I have changed it on the spreadsheet but want to confirm. CQ does tend to change the names of Eritrean riders somewhat frequently. As well, there is no AASHEIM Ludwig but there is an AASHEIM Ludwig Fischer, so I've made that change too. Finally, the following 3 of your zero-pointers aren't in CQ database at all, and might not be until they score points: WAERENSKJOLD Soren, VAN WILDER Ilan, BALMER Alexandre. Please keep an eye on them and if they score points that don't show up on the spreadsheet, let me know as it may be a spelling discrepancy. And finally, I corrected Intxausti's name but it only brought your team up to 7499, still under budget. I would normally notice the discrepancy but his name was the last one before a barrage of zero pointers so I didn't see a big zero sticking out in the middle of a bunch of scoring riders.

- I received a team after the deadline from DJW, who swears they didn't look at any other teams but it was too late to officially include it. I have added it to the spreadsheet with an asterisk and it won't be eligible for the overall, weekly or Green Jersey competitions - if it finishes at the top I'll mention it but not include it on the update. I decided not to put its riders on the popularity table (three riders who were unique no longer would have been), and I'm inclined to say this edition has 113 participants, not 114. I genuinely don't remember if this is consistent - aside from the first part about the asterisk and not being eligible - with what I did several years ago with a team (I believe it was Panda Claws), and I don't have time to hunt that down. So if any folks who track the year-by-year participants, riders etc have insight or opinion on the clerical side of things let me know, but that's the gist of it.

- I realize that the Aussie Nats are staggered so the TT isn't until Tuesday... I'm not sure what CQ plans for an update, but obviously this week and next week will be sparse, with few popular riders scoring big at the antipodean races so far, and only the 2.2 Tachira next week until the TDU starts. Anyway, I'm inclined to do an update both weeks if CQ updates their spreadsheets - at this time of year everyone is stoked on their teams so a bit of early season glory is a good thing, right?

 

[fauniera]

WAERENSKJOLD Soren
https://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider.asp?riderid=29187

 

[skidmark]

WAERENSKJOLD Soren
https://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider.asp?riderid=29187

Okay great, that was the one I was most worried about with possibly nordic 'O's with the stroke through them etc (sorry Scandis, I don't know the name for it! :redface: )

 

[Squire]

I received a team after the deadline from DJW, who swears they didn't look at any other teams but it was too late to officially include it. I have added it to the spreadsheet with an asterisk and it won't be eligible for the overall, weekly or Green Jersey competitions - if it finishes at the top I'll mention it but not include it on the update. I decided not to put its riders on the popularity table (three riders who were unique no longer would have been), and I'm inclined to say this edition has 113 participants, not 114. I genuinely don't remember if this is consistent - aside from the first part about the asterisk and not being eligible - with what I did several years ago with a team (I believe it was Panda Claws), and I don't have time to hunt that down. So if any folks who track the year-by-year participants, riders etc have insight or opinion on the clerical side of things let me know, but that's the gist of it.

I see that I have treated the asterisked Panda Claws team like any other team in my overall spreadsheet. And checking back, you did actually add their picks to the popularity sheet. It finished 72nd, and Panda Claws' other years weren't much more successful either, so it doesn't really make any difference to any of the rankings I keep.

I like the way you're doing it with DJW's team though, and if I remember it at the end of the year, I will disregard it for the overall stats. Looking at the team, I doubt you'll end up in the slightly embarrasing situation of having an 'alternative' winner anyway, so all's good.

The Norwegian youngster is called Søren Wærenskjold, so he's got a very 'Nordic' name indeed.

I'm a bit bummed you didn't write more about your team. I'd be interested in hearing what your expectations are for Lambrecht and Sivakov. I was close to picking the former, but definitely not the latter. I guess you see Cosnefroy as this year's Madouas? Navardauskas, Van Asbroeck and McLay are some very typical 'boring' skidmark picks. And finally, I never really noticed that Marini had signed on with a Chinese team. Had I known, I would have considered him very strongly.

 

[Jancouver]

I received a team after the deadline from DJW, who swears they didn't look at any other teams but it was too late to officially include it. I have added it to the spreadsheet with an asterisk and it won't be eligible for the overall, weekly or Green Jersey competitions - if it finishes at the top I'll mention it but not include it on the update. I decided not to put its riders on the popularity table (three riders who were unique no longer would have been), and I'm inclined to say this edition has 113 participants, not 114. I genuinely don't remember if this is consistent - aside from the first part about the asterisk and not being eligible - with what I did several years ago with a team (I believe it was Panda Claws), and I don't have time to hunt that down. So if any folks who track the year-by-year participants, riders etc have insight or opinion on the clerical side of things let me know, but that's the gist of it.

I see that I have treated the asterisked Panda Claws team like any other team in my overall spreadsheet. And checking back, you did actually add their picks to the popularity sheet. It finished 72nd, and Panda Claws' other years weren't much more successful either, so it doesn't really make any difference to any of the rankings I keep.

I like the way you're doing it with DJW's team though, and if I remember it at the end of the year, I will disregard it for the overall stats. Looking at the team, I doubt you'll end up in the slightly embarrasing situation of having an 'alternative' winner anyway, so all's good.

The Norwegian youngster is called Søren Wærenskjold, so he's got a very 'Nordic' name indeed.

I'm a bit bummed you didn't write more about your team. I'd be interested in hearing what your expectations are for Lambrecht and Sivakov. I was close to picking the former, but definitely not the latter. I guess you see Cosnefroy as this year's Madouas? Navardauskas, Van Asbroeck and McLay are some very typical 'boring' skidmark picks. And finally, I never really noticed that Marini had signed on with a Chinese team. Had I known, I would have considered him very strongly.

With all due respect to Skidmark's team and much appreciation for his work, truthfully, I don't think that his team needs much explanation.

After all, he got the top 25 most popular riders on his team, so I think that we can all agree that his team pretty much is the "Collective Wisdom" team upgraded with a handful of personal picks.

That being said, this year, unless there are some major surprises, I think that "his" team has the highest odds to take the title. At least mathematically.

BTW I do like that you took a chance and submitted a somewhat risky team and while prior to seeing your team I did consider you being the "Top Dog", I think that not having Kittel may cost you dearly because unless you are 100% correct about him, he is the guy that can score 1000+ points that will make the difference for you.

EDIT:

BTW, I did not look very closely, but are there any teams that have more than 25 of the Top 33 picks?

 

[PeterB]

BTW, I did not look very closely, but are there any teams that have more than 25 of the Top 33 picks?

For what it's worth, team trackstand seems to have 25 out of top 33 plus #35 (Konig) and teams Ruvu75 and Total_Package 24 out of top 33 plus different #35 (Landa).
BTW skidmark's team has 23 out of top 33 according to my quick check. And has only 22 out of top 25.

 

[Jancouver]

BTW, I did not look very closely, but are there any teams that have more than 25 of the Top 33 picks?

For what it's worth, team trackstand seems to have 25 out of top 33 plus #35 (Konig) and teams Ruvu75 and Total_Package 24 out of top 33 plus different #35 (Landa).

Thanks!

So here Ruvu75 vs Skidmark.

It comes down to these riders and everything else is even.

Who got better team?

//////////////////////////////

Ruvu75:
LANDA MEANA Mikel
TRENTIN Matteo
BONIFAZIO Niccolo
GARCIA CORTINA Ivan
MOSCHETTI Matteo
VLIEGEN Loïc
ROWE Luke
VAN STAEYEN Michael
MUÑOZ GIRALDO Daniel Felipe

Skidmark
VAN DER POEL Mathieu
COQUARD Bryan
LAMBRECHT Bjorg
COSNEFROY Benoit
BAUHAUS Phil
SIVAKOV Pavel
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
KÄMNA Lennard
MARINI Nicolas

 

[LaFlorecita]

With all due respect to Skidmark's team and much appreciation for his work, truthfully, I don't think that his team needs much explanation.

After all, he got the top 25 most popular riders on his team, so I think that we can all agree that his team pretty much is the "Collective Wisdom" team upgraded with a handful of personal picks.

That being said, this year, unless there are some major surprises, I think that "his" team has the highest odds to take the title. At least mathematically.

BTW I do like that you took a chance and submitted a somewhat risky team and while prior to seeing your team I did consider you being the "Top Dog", I think that not having Kittel may cost you dearly because unless you are 100% correct about him, he is the guy that can score 1000+ points that will make the difference for you.

EDIT:

BTW, I did not look very closely, but are there any teams that have more than 25 of the Top 33 picks?

on the 24th of December skidmark sent me a provisional lineup of 23 riders plus a list of about 50 out of which he would pick the last 10. He already noted that he might change up some of the more expensive riders in his 'for certain' list because he only had 1000 left for 10 more picks, and from the looks of it he did swap out Trentin for Van der Poel.

On his team are 23 of the 33 most popular riders. 16 of those were on his 23 name 'shortlist'. 6 were on his 'longlist'. In fairness I have to say Alberto Bettiol is on his team and did not appear on either of these lists and also he sent his team 4 days after I sent him my team so I don't know how many teams he may have processed before sending my list. But this is truly just a matter of trust.

As PeterB points out it is not that special to have many of the most popular picks, in fact I'd say it's very easy. I picked mainly favorites and am way down on the popularity ranking, somewhere in the 2nd half, yet I have 17 of the most popular 33, and if I'd had gone for 'the best team possible' I see at least 6 that I'd have picked as well - riders I know will very likely be good picks but I just didn't want to pick. So please, let it go.

 

[Salvarani]

BTW, I did not look very closely, but are there any teams that have more than 25 of the Top 33 picks?

For what it's worth, team trackstand seems to have 25 out of top 33 plus #35 (Konig) and teams Ruvu75 and Total_Package 24 out of top 33 plus different #35 (Landa).

Thanks!

So here Ruvu75 vs Skidmark.

It comes down to these riders and everything else is even.

Who got better team?

//////////////////////////////

Ruvu75:
LANDA MEANA Mikel
TRENTIN Matteo
BONIFAZIO Niccolo
GARCIA CORTINA Ivan
MOSCHETTI Matteo
VLIEGEN Loïc
ROWE Luke
VAN STAEYEN Michael
MUÑOZ GIRALDO Daniel Felipe

Skidmark
VAN DER POEL Mathieu
COQUARD Bryan
LAMBRECHT Bjorg
COSNEFROY Benoit
BAUHAUS Phil
SIVAKOV Pavel
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
KÄMNA Lennard
MARINI Nicolas

This could be very close tbh.

I would say one is top-heavy and the other one could have more of a spread when it comes to points.

MVDP really has to deliver in the races he rides if Skidmark should have a chance and some of other the younger riders on his team really stepping up big time. Because Landa and Trentin might score +1000 each.

Im gonna say Ruvu75.

 

[bminchow]

Re:

I did consider Marc Soler. My reasoning for not taking him is that with the current make up of Movistar Team I just don't see where he has the opportunity to improve much on his points from last year. I do like him and believe he has potential for bigger numbers in the future. That is my reason for not including him this year.

Dan Martin and Michael Woods are the two I would say are the most surprising non picks and would consider with the possible upside as unique picks.

Soler, Martin and Krueziger were the three guys on the list I was considering. Roman was actually on my first submission before I went back to Richie.

 

[Salvarani]

Guess who had James Fouché on his team and made a last change and took him out a couple of days before the deadline

 

[Jancouver]

With all due respect to Skidmark's team and much appreciation for his work, truthfully, I don't think that his team needs much explanation.

After all, he got the top 25 most popular riders on his team, so I think that we can all agree that his team pretty much is the "Collective Wisdom" team upgraded with a handful of personal picks.

That being said, this year, unless there are some major surprises, I think that "his" team has the highest odds to take the title. At least mathematically.

BTW I do like that you took a chance and submitted a somewhat risky team and while prior to seeing your team I did consider you being the "Top Dog", I think that not having Kittel may cost you dearly because unless you are 100% correct about him, he is the guy that can score 1000+ points that will make the difference for you.

EDIT:

BTW, I did not look very closely, but are there any teams that have more than 25 of the Top 33 picks?

on the 24th of December skidmark sent me a provisional lineup of 23 riders plus a list of about 50 out of which he would pick the last 10. He already noted that he might change up some of the more expensive riders in his 'for certain' list because he only had 1000 left for 10 more picks, and from the looks of it he did swap out Trentin for Van der Poel.

On his team are 23 of the 33 most popular riders. 16 of those were on his 23 name 'shortlist'. 6 were on his 'longlist'. In fairness I have to say Alberto Bettiol is on his team and did not appear on either of these lists and also he sent his team 4 days after I sent him my team so I don't know how many teams he may have processed before sending my list. But this is truly just a matter of trust.

As PeterB points out it is not that special to have many of the most popular picks, in fact I'd say it's very easy. I picked mainly favorites and am way down on the popularity ranking, somewhere in the 2nd half, yet I have 17 of the most popular 33, and if I'd had gone for 'the best team possible' I see at least 6 that I'd have picked as well - riders I know will very likely be good picks but I just didn't want to pick. So please, let it go.

As I said before, he already proved that he is a top competitor regardless of whether he got access to all the teams or not.

So no, I'm not bitter by any mean and I truly appreciate all his work and all I said was that his team, at least in my eyes is the ultimate "Collective Wisdom" team.

So again, either he/we are right about our popularity picks, and he will take it, or, there will be some surprises and those who took more risk will be rewarded.

Either way, it does not make any difference to me as I usually can't even make the Top 100

 

[Armchair cyclist]

WAERENSKJOLD Soren
https://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider.asp?riderid=29187

Thanks for the info, because it affects my game management too. This is intriguing, because his number (29187) is lower than some that scored points in 2018 and were on the end of year download (the highest I found was 29468, which would suggest that young Soren was lurking in their database under another name. I thought I had tried sufficient incomplete names to track him down, but evidently not.