Congratulations to Blues in the Bottle for the dominant win! And big thanks again to skidmark for all the hard work with the game.
Also fun to read the post-game analysis here. All those comparisons and perspectives wouldn't be possible if the budget had been altered at some point, so I'm glad to see that particular discussion having died down in the last few years. I might have my own yearly statistics update up at some point, but quite a lot of it would be repetition from EvansIsTheBest's excellent breakdown.
As for my team this year, I barely managed to scrape into the top 50. I was well aware that omitting Roglic was a huge gamble, but it would have been fun if it paid off (no ill wishes to Roglic of course). My team was relatively solid overall, but I didn't really have any proper blockbuster picks, and as it turned out, there was of course no way to compensate for not having Roglic. I enjoyed seeing my super obscure unique pick Lucas Carstensen (213 points for a cost of 56) turn out pretty well in the end, and Penhoët (591 for 132, picked 14 times) was a good rare pick.
Pre-game I often have a tendency to state my opinions loud and confidently, so I figured I'd hold myself accountable for once!
Let's see how some of my predictions fared:
I actually believe picking Roglic is objectively the best strategy, but I just liked my team so much more without him. Giro, Vuelta, Italian classics and a few other races inbetween are more than enough for a normal Roglic to score 2000 points
Yeah... Let's move on.
Bagioli, who I've had for several years, but couldn't fit in this time. Always been a big believer, and will still love it if he does well, but I'm starting to believe that the inconsistency he's shown every year since he was a junior is just how he is.
First year I don't have him, and he makes the optimal team. But it took him until his last race of the season to prove me wrong.
Earle is actually a legitimately great pick I think. Won everywhere he raced last year before injury stopped his season, and the Asian calendar is getting a big buff in terms of categorization of races this year. Tour of Japan, which he won convincingly, is now 2.1 which means 85 extra points.
My unique pick Nathan Earle actually won the buffed up Tour of Japan, but contrary to my calculations his team didn't do any of the Chinese races, so his profit ended up being more modest than I had hoped.
I also did some very extensive consideration about Tesson, but in the end I look at who he beat in his sprints and decided he might not be THAT good.
Dodged a bullet here, but I'd much rather have had Tesson than Bouhanni.
I have had Piccolo in all sorts of Emerging riders CQ games since he graduated from juniors, so it's not like I don't believe he's good. But he got a lot of cheap points last year. Most of them from just decent placings against weak fields. He didn't win once. Massive gamble.
Very happy with this consideration. Never saw him as a good pick, and turned out to be right.
Am I the only one who is not really convinced by Baroncini? Strong rouleur with a good TT, but his impressive U23 results came as a 21-year-old, and I don't see him being sharp enough at one specific thing to do much better than some top 10s in random one-dayers and stage races, maybe the occasional breakaway win like his U23 WC. Don't see a 500+ season here.
With all these sound considerations, how did I end up doing so bad?
I had Ewan last year, and he was very unlucky with a constantly disrupted season. I think he's a much better pick this time, with Lotto's new and very cynical points-driven approach, and also the arrival of Guarnieri, who got Demare a lot of his wins. Ewan being able to do the Aussie summer also helps.
Yeah, this is part of the reason I guess! Ewan has been a bit like skidmark's Grosu. I just can't keep myself from picking him. Hopefully I can resist the temptation for next year!
Another random thought I had: Could the popularity of Ayuso and Roglic mean we'll have another massive end-of-Vuelta week this year? [...] I was imagining something like a Vuelta podium consisting of Roglic, Ayuso and then maybe Haig, Uijtdebroeks, Almeida, Martinez and perhaps even Bernal somewhere in the top 10.
Not too far off with this one! Of course I didn't see the Sepp Kuss win coming, although I seriously considered him for my team. Was thinking he could have more of a 2021 type season with some solid GC placings on the back of his super domestique duties, but he didn't make the cut unfortunately.