Let's see how some of my predictions fared:
I actually believe picking Roglic is objectively the best strategy, but I just liked my team so much more without him. Giro, Vuelta, Italian classics and a few other races inbetween are more than enough for a normal Roglic to score 2000 points
As a continuation of this, I just did some calculations which made me quite relieved.
At the start of this season, when I learnt that Hugo Koblet was not going to participate, I had my first ever pre-reveal discussion about picks for this game. I'm way too stubborn for that discussion to have impacted my decisions, I think, but at least I sent him my team when it still had Roglic in it. Having added up the scores for that team, I'm very relieved to see that I wouldn't have won anyway. And not on the podium either, luckily. My pre-getting-rid-of-Roglic team would have scored 14946 points it seems, good enough for 5th place.