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The 2024 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

Page 75 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Shalgo 2024 vs skidmark 2012: A deep dive

With shalgo so far ahead of everyobdy else, it's hard to see how anyone will catch up. There is however still some significant intrigue as to whether their team can become the best CQ squad ever. Up to this point, shalgo has scored 11447 points which is 596 points ahead of skidmark's 2012 pace. That might sound like a lot and it is, but it's also the closest it has been in a long time suggesting skidmark is gaining ground.

Update
shalgo 2024
skidmark 2012
Difference
MSR​
4779​
3027​
1752​
Roubaix​
6219​
5529​
690​
LBL​
6909​
6099​
810​
Giro​
10031​
8976​
1055​
Now​
11447​
10851​
596​
Tour​
?​
12657​
?​
Vuelta​
?​
17333​
?​
Worlds​
?​
18645​
?​
Final​
?​
19372​
?​

Skidmark had a fairly decent Tour highlighted by Van Garderen's 5th place in the GC and finished the race with 12657 points. Shalgo has a very decent squad for the Tour and should be able to at least maintain the gap:
AYUSO PESQUERA Juan
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
GIRMAY HAILU Biniam
BENNETT Sam
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
LAURANCE Axel
MOSCON Gianni
CAPIOT Amaury

It's hard to imagine any team scoring 5k from the end of the Tour to the end of the Vuelta so shalgo probably needs to widen the gap now, leak as few points as possible until the end of the world championships and hope for a huge fall classics campaign (with Carapaz, D. Martinez, Cosnefroy, Girmay, Higuita, Schachmann, Morgado, etc. that's certainly a possibility).

If we try to project what shalgo will score post Tour based on previous editions of the game, we can look at what the best post-Tour teams ever averaged the rest of the way. I used all 22 teams that had a bigger post-Tour score than shalgo's current score as my sample. Of those 22 teams, the three that scored the most post-Tour are squire 2021 (7140 points), EITB 2022 (7010 points) and skidmark 2012 (6715 points). That's the issue with trying to keep up with skidmark's 2012 team. Not only was it the second best total ever after the Tour update, at least for now, but it also scored more than almost anyone else during the late season too.
Team
Year
Tour score
Final score
Post-Tour score
EITB​
2012​
12812​
16911​
4099​
skidmark​
2012​
12657​
19372​
6715​
TeoSheva​
2012​
12645​
17096​
4451​
Armchair cyclist​
2012​
12047​
17092​
5045​
Nyssinator​
2012​
12020​
17785​
5765​
Kvinto​
2012​
11727​
18106​
6379​
theyoungest​
2012​
11639​
16116​
4477​
Mellow Velo​
2012​
11551​
15309​
3758​
Luke Schmid​
2012​
11454​
15863​
4409​
GP Blanco​
2015​
11574​
14691​
3117​
Cykeltyven​
2015​
11534​
16209​
4675​
Kjellus​
2015​
11496​
15402​
3906​
Londonpat​
2015​
11469​
14454​
2985​
squire​
2018​
11501​
16091​
4590​
Object​
2021​
12633​
19129​
6496​
Otoxiep87​
2021​
12241​
17643​
5402​
Total Package​
2021​
11995​
18676​
6681​
squire​
2021​
11875​
19015​
7140​
Galpedal​
2021​
11542​
16761​
5219​
squire​
2022​
11701​
16867​
5166​
MADRAZO​
2022​
11680​
17018​
5338​
EITB​
2022​
11652​
18662​
7010​
shalgo​
2024​
11447+​
?​
?​

On average those 22 teams scored 5128 points the rest of the way. If shalgo matched that pace, they would need 14244 after the Tour to beat skidmark. That seems really high. Of course, shalgo's team is better than pretty much all the teams in my sample so it would stand to reason that they would fare better than the average but how much better ? Looking at the 7 teams that were at least at 12k after the Tour they averaged 5425 points the rest of the way. Better but not substantially so. More promising for shalgo is that the post-Tour score seems very heavily correlated to the given year.

The four 2015 teams only averaged 3671 points the rest of the year, the nine 2012 teams averaged 5011 points, the three 2022 teams averaged 5838 points and the five 2021 teams averaged a whooping 6188 points. If we suppose the post-Tour scoring environment will be as friendly as 2021 and shalgo gets around 6200 points post Tour, they would need 13200 points after the Tour update which is about 1700 more than they currently have. Tough but doable.

Looking forward, shalgo's entire team is healthy and available to race besides Piccolo (done for the year I would imagine) and Quintana (should be back fairly soon). At this point skidmark had already lost the much more expensive Offredo for the season so availability gives a slight edge to shalgo.


Some milestones along the way (in parenthesis the team currently holding the spot)
Top score ever: 19372 (skidmark 2012)
Top 3 score ever: 19015 (Squire 2021)
Top 5 score ever: 18662 (EITB 2022)
Top 10 score ever: 17643 (Otoxiep87 2021)
Top 20 score ever: 17009 (Boris98 2021)
Top 30 score ever: 16761 (Galpedal 2021)
Top 50 score ever: 16209 (Cykeltyven 2015*)
Top 75 score ever: 15759 (rote lanterne 2021)
Top 100 score ever: 15382 (ansimi 2021)

* That was the winning score in 2015, it wasn't a great CQ year.
 
My riders for the week.
Riders in blue are doing the Big One down in France (and Italy, for now)

Bendixen
Cort
Kragh


I guess I'll just have to hope Salby can be the new Mareczko over at Qinghai.
Unfortunately, Corratec are riding, and they're probably gonna bring the original Mareczko...


And then Pedersen broke his collarbone.

And Salby apparently isn't riding Qinghai after all...
 
Last edited:
Update #24: Yellow Knight vanquishes all foes

I'm back in the update seat! Happy to take back over from EITB (to whom I am very thankful for doing updates the last two months) and excited to be onto the Tour.

This week was a real quiet one - the Tour clears the schedule for the most part, as the 2.1 Tour of Slovakia was the only race aside from the first two stages of the Grand Depart.

This Week's Top Scorers

RankTeamPoints this week
1Yellow Knight305
2ingsve153
3slow_climber146
4Popchu134
5Lortnoc132

In the sparse points available this week, Yellow Knight manages to double the next closest team this week, topping 300 points thanks to a fortuitous combo of scoring-but-rare riders - Mauro Schmid (131 points, 3 teams) gets a solid jolt after a sluggish season thus far by winning in Slovakia, while Anders Foldager (93, 2) does similarly, and Kevin Vauquelin (80, 5) scores a career highlight with a TdF stage win. ingsve ends up in second thanks to the Slovakian points of their team's QuickStep duo of Julian Alaphilippe (110, 10) and Gil Gelders (42, 10) (and a single point from Carapaz), while slow climber has Schmid and some minor points.

This Week's High Movers

RankTeamUp/down
1Yellow Knight(+5)
1Popchu(+5)
3Jakob747(+3)
3PandaClaws(+3)
3Crevaison(+3)
3Lortnoc(+3)

With relatively low point totals this week, the movement was minimal - Yellow Knight doubles up but shares the top spot here with Popchu, who has Alaphilippe, while there's a 4 way tie for the other podium spot with teams moving up 3 spots.

Green Jersey Competition

RankTeamTotal
1Googolplex229
2shalgo222
3Jakob747186
4Shakes149
5DJ Sprtsch138

These standings aren't affected this week, as there is no one in the top 10 overall scoring any points this week.

Top 10 Overall

RankUp/downTeamPoints
1(-)shalgo11453
2(-)adamski1019923
3(-)Nakazar9881
4(+1)skidmark9828
5(-1)EvansIsTheBest9812
6(-)Earns19859712
7(-)Squire9651
8(-)MADRAZO9610
9(-)Total Package9502
10(-)Gotland9441

Team shalgo scores a mere 6 points this week, but there wasn't much opportunity to gain, as team skidmark is the highest scoring team in the top 10 with 48 points, and no one else over 15.

While the standings are in a holding pattern this week, upcoming there promises to be some movement with the Tour in full swing, the Tour of Austria and Sibiu Tour on tap.

spreadsheet link
 
Highly suspicious that skidmark's team just happens to overtake mine the moment skidmark takes over the updates again ;)
Now that I'm back in internet range I have time to do things like write to Gil Gelders and implore him to hang on to the highest GC place he can in Slovakia. It's the little things that get you the edge in this game.
 
Okay now that I'm back in action and getting caught up, who do I have to cheer for?

Tour

Juan Ayuso
Carlos Rodriguez
Egan Bernal
Ben Turner (oh yeah, he still exists)
Axel Laurance
Richard Carapaz
Biniam Girmay

Well I guess if I'm wanting to close the gap to shalgo by any degree, I'm cheering for maximal C-Rod points (and, theoretically, Ben Turner, but lol). Of the top 5 in the CQ game, 3 of them have my top guys (and Nakazar somehow is crushing it without Ayuso at all).

After today, most of the GC guys look good save a bad day from Carapaz, but he's the least consequential game-wise anyway.

Austria

AJ August
Luke Plapp

Well, Plapp hasn't raced for some time but if he's built up some summer form this could be alright. August hasn't had results this season but that's as expected for a teenager - this is about the time I'd hope for him to start to show something.

Sibiu

Emil Herzog

Meanwhile I see shalgo will have Higuita and Riccitello lining up for some 2.1 points against very thin competition... am I cheering for this race to be cancelled?
 
Popularity of the current TDF GC in this game:

Popularity in Top 20 overallPopularity all players
Pogacar
0​
2​
Evenepoel
0​
2​
Vingegaard
0​
0​
Ayuso
11​
39​
Roglic
0​
1​
C.Rodriguez
6​
24​
Landa
0​
1​
Almeida
0​
0​
Ciccone
0​
0​
Bernal
16​
43​
Jorgenson
0​
1​
Gall
0​
0​
A. Yates
0​
0​
Vlasov
1​
2​
Buitrago
0​
0​
G. Martin
0​
0​
Bilbao
0​
1​
Hindley
0​
2​
Mas
3​
14​
S. Yates
0​
0​

GC wise not so many picks are popular in this game: It will be very important, how C.Rodriguez and Ayuso will perform. Also Bernal, although he is really popular especially in the top ranks...

Seems that Carapaz will go now for stage wins, as he looses now also time in flat stages..
 
It will be very important, how C.Rodriguez and Ayuso will perform. Also Bernal, although he is really popular especially in the top ranks...
I need Almeida to hide Ayuso's bike before the next mountain stage, and Rodriguez to be forced to honour his Movistar contract and switch teams mid-race. Especially now that Pidcock isn't GC-ing at all, and will likely not win many stages considering the teams of the two best riders in the race love drilling it on the front.

Meanwhile over in Austria, Plapp is doing his best Tim Declercq impression. Only thing missing now is the customary Magnus Sheffield crash.
 
Austria

AJ August
Luke Plapp

Well, Plapp hasn't raced for some time but if he's built up some summer form this could be alright. August hasn't had results this season but that's as expected for a teenager - this is about the time I'd hope for him to start to show something.
Yes it's almost the time of year for August. Can't argue with that. Flawless deduction skills :p
 
Leknesund showing he should perhaps have gotten that spot at the Tour with a nice win in Sibiu Tour.
It will be second overall, if nothing happens tomorrow. Had a bit more hope than 5th overall for Riccitello before the race, but I will also take the 50 GC points he will get, if nothing chances anymore..

Meanwhile Thomas Gloag is scheduled to race his first race this season in the Czech Tour. (Beginning 25th of july)
 
Meanwhile Thomas Gloag is scheduled to race his first race this season in the Czech Tour. (Beginning 25th of july)
Let's see if he actually starts this time. It's not the first time this season he has featured on a PCS start list at least but then removed before the start. At the Brittish NCs he at least was part of the starting list and DNSed so he is getting closer and closer. Not expecting much this season though.
 
Update #25: Knight time continues another week

The Tour continued this week, while the tragic events at the Tour of Austria unfortunately overshadowed the race itself. For the purposes of our internet game, of course, points were still awarded. This week also had the first couple of stages of the Sibiu Tour.

This Week's Top Scorers

RankTeamPoints this week
1Yellow Knight433
2JumboVismaFan429
3Object416
4Rufs405
5Amethyst399

After dominating a quiet week last week by doubling the score of second place, Yellow Knight does a rare back-to-back (especially with scoring from completely different riders than last week), although this one is much closer. Their team's scoring was led by the relatively popular Biniam Girmay, who scored 214 points for his 48 team owners during his TdF breakout week. Beyond Bini, Yellow Knight got points from Magnus Sheffield (76, 22), Tom Pidcock (50, 7), and a few key points from rare riders like Jensen Plowright (33, 3) and Davide De Pretto (27, 2).

JumboVismaFan comes very close, only 4 points behind in 2nd place, having both Girmay and Sheffield and also Arnaud De Lie (110, 3), while former winner Object is close behind as well thanks to Girmay and Sheffield and four other riders scoring between 20-40 points.

This Week's High Movers

RankTeamUp/down
1Object(+6)
2Rakim(+5)
2repre(+5)
4Amethyst(+4)
4bminchow(+4)
4rote_laterne(+4)
4JumboVismaFan(+4)
4del1962(+4)

The moves aren't too high this week with relatively subdued scoring, but Object moves up from 3rd on the Top Scorers ranking to first here, moving up 6 spots in the overall this week. Rakim and repre tie for 2nd (both of course had Girmay, and Rakim was one of the 3 teams who celebrated in the CQ game from Mark Cavendish's 80 points for his record breaking win), while there's a 5 way tie for 4th on the week.

Green Jersey Competition

RankTeamTotal
1Googolplex229
2shalgo222
3Jakob747186
4Shakes149
5JumboVismaFan148

JumboVismaFan parlays 35 weekly points into an entry into the top 5 overall. No one else in the top 5 scores this week, and further down YellowKnight's two week tear gets their team a spot in the top 10.

Top 10 Overall

RankUp/downTeamPoints
1(-)shalgo11733
2(-)adamski10110232
3(+2)EvansIsTheBest10170
4(-)skidmark10110
5(+1)Earns19859998
6(-3)Nakazar9913
7(+1)MADRAZO9885
8(-1)Squire9803
9(-)Total Package9776
10(+1)HoudiniCycling9724

adamski101 gains 29 points on shalgo this week to cut the lead to just a hair over 1500 points; EvansIsTheBest leapfrogs a few teams to get back on the podium, and HoudiniCycling enters the top 10, switching places with Gotland who falls out.

This week, we'll see the second week of the Tour, the end of the 2.1 Sibiu Tour and the start of the 2.1 Tour de L'Ain (what's up with stage races not ending on weekends these days?), with .PS points also on offer in China for those who picked riders that might line up there.

spreadsheet link
 
Damn Vlasov is DNS for stage 10. That was my one hope to keep up with my position in the rankings. Soon all the Rodrigues and Ayuso owners will march right past me and Vlasov was my only real hope to counteract some of those points. Hope he gets to ride the Vuelta as captain this year.
 
Damn Vlasov is DNS for stage 10. That was my one hope to keep up with my position in the rankings. Soon all the Rodrigues and Ayuso owners will march right past me and Vlasov was my only real hope to counteract some of those points. Hope he gets to ride the Vuelta as captain this year.
We as not Ayuso owner´s should write an open letter to the UAE management that we no longer accept Ayuso driving his own race instead of fully sacrificing himself for Pogacar.