The 2024 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[armchairclimber]

First impressions .... maybe losing Carapaz from my team at the last minute was a mistake. But I wanted to use his budget points for a few young riders with potential. Sam Bennet was another late casualty.... still smarting from his performance last year. Ditto Piccolo. Cian was in my long list, but, as I can't enjoy watching the yellow and blacks very much, he went west ... I actually liked Van Wilder as a similar pick, even though more expensive. Danny Martinez and Ben Turnerwere in my long list but I just found alternatives. My main worries are that Carapaz and Higuita, who I really like and had until my final draft, don't come and bite my arse. I'm low in the pop table as expected.

 

[RedheadDane]

So, I picked 33 riders that I hope will score some points...

Samu might have his (semi-)Basque Street Boys, I have my Darring Danes!

At first it seemed easy; 16 WorldTour riders - Vingegaard excluded for budgetary reasons, Storm not yet a (future) WT rider at the time - + 17 ProTour riders nicely adds up to 33. Unfortunately, that was way above budget! So I booted the old guys - Fuglsang and Mørkøv - as well as Juul-Jensen, but was still above budget. So I made the painful decision to boot Mads Pedersen as well. Then I was within budget, and had room to spare, so I just added some conti riders to fill in the last spots. Ultimately coming up with the following team.

ANDERSEN Kasper
ASGREEN Kasper
BENDIXEN Louis
BEVORT Carl-Frederik
BJERG Mikkel
CHANGIZI Sebastian Kolze
CHARMIG Anthon
CORT NIELSEN Magnus
FOLDAGER Anders
GREGAARD WILSLY Jonas
GUDNITZ Joshua Amos
HANSEN Marcus Sander
HONORE Mikkel Frølich
JØRGENSEN Adam Holm
KAMP Alexander
KRAGH ANDERSEN Søren
KRON Andreas Lorentz
LARSEN Niklas
LEVY William Blume
LUND ANDRESEN Tobias
NIELSEN Sebastian
NORSGAARD JØRGENSEN Mathias
PEDERSEN Casper Phillip
PEDERSEN Nicklas Overgaard Amdi
PEDERSEN Rasmus Søjberg
PRICE-PEJTERSEN Johan
SALBY Alexander
SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias
STOKBRO Andreas Nielsen
VALGREN HUNDAHL (ANDERSEN) Michael
WALLIN Rasmus Bøgh
WANDAHL Frederik
WÜRTZ SCHMIDT Mads

I did briefly consider Mads Pedersen's Lidl brother, but ultimately decided against it.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

That day you always look forward to with a slight edge of dread…

This was definitely a round with a weird price distribution. I found myself with an ever-growing list of riders between 100 and 200 points who I really wanted, and a stubbornly short list of riders to either side of said category (the higher price ranges aside).

Secondly, a note on some of the more expensive riders I didn’t go for. I skipped all the obvious Bora options because I expect the arrival of Roglic in a team with a lot of high-end climbers is going to constrain opportunities for all said climbers and force some of them into domestique roles. Of course this backfires if someone like Higuita starts doing a lot of smaller races, but I’m just not confident enough in any of them. I also skipped everyone who doesn’t have a good excuse for having a disappointing 2023, because there were a lot of alternatives who did. So the likes of Girmay or Hayter were never an option for me. Finally, I skipped the track riders with Paris in mind, if this wasn’t an Olympic year I probably would have gone for Plapp (again).

That still leaves a lot of other options and I’ll get to those who I strongly considered after my actual team reveal, which really has enough text you’ve probably skipped before it by now.

AYUSO PESQUERA Juan (1023) - putting my money where my mouth is with this one. I still think he starts churning out 2000+ seasons (if not better) sooner rather than later. And even if sooner isn’t 2024, not having literally half a season disrupted by injury should guarantee a solid profit.
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos (810) - the reasons why he’s affordable this year are remarkably similar to Ayuso’s. Yes, his ceiling is lower, but he’s also cheaper by a decent amount in addition to more or less being the main man at Ineos by now.
DEMARE Arnaud (743) - whenever he doesn’t have an underwhelming season, he usually cracks 1200 points at minimum. And on an Arkéa team in dire need of points that he took to like a fish to water at the end of last season, he really shouldn’t be having an underwhelming season.
UIJTDEBROEKS Cian (574) - one of three returnees on my team this year. As much as I dislike the implications of his transfer, Jumbo should be a better environment for him and him being the leader at the Giro tells you all you need to know about how they see him. Anything less than quad digits would be a disappointment.
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio (496) - candidate number one of two for most popular rider of the year.
ALBANESE Vincenzo (380) - was really close to picking him in 2022, when he would have been a strong unique pick. Perhaps that’s clouding my judgment here and I’m expecting him to be a rarer pick, but I see a rider who raced a limited program last year due to injury, moving to a team that does lots of races that should suit him, that also needs a lot of points from said races to stay in the WT. That just ticks too many boxes.
DAINESE Alberto (313) - at DSM, he spent a third of the time doing races that didn’t suit him at all, another third on domestique duty for lesser riders, and only the final third actually scoring his points. While I don’t expect his inconsistencies to be ironed out completely, being the main man on a team that will likely offer a reasonably favourable schedule means he should finally fulfil his scoring potential.
ARENSMAN Thymen (283) - feel like his 2022 score flatters him a bit, but at the same time he’s way better than a sub-300 season and in any case he should have fewer riders ahead of him in the hierarchy compared to last season.
MEINTJES Louis (264) - about 100 points behind on his 2022 schedule when he crashed out of the Tour while in the exact same GC position as he was at that point in the 2022 Tour. Don’t expect 800 points again, but doubling his score shouldn’t be too much to ask for.
VANSEVENANT Mauri (207) - mostly a wasted season for him and he likely finds himself on domestique duty part of the time next year, but he should get more than enough opportunities to ride for himself to at least double his score.

LAURANCE Axel (187) - I don’t think the late transfer and the restricted schedule due to being signed with the DT helped his case this year. I do still believe in his talent regardless of a slightly underwhelming 2023 and he really doesn’t need to improve on his 2022 score much to be worth it.
BUSATTO Francesco (186) - on quite a few occasions, I thought he was a bit expensive for a neo-pro, but every time I considered swapping him out, one look at his results sheet was enough to convince me otherwise. He simply is that exciting a talent.
LAMPERTI Luke (176) - been on my radar for long enough to be in my Emerging Riders team for the edition that started in 2022. But even if he hadn’t been, it’s hard to ignore the #2 sprinter on Soudal when he comes at this price.
GLOAG Thomas (171) - the second of my three returning picks. Was looking really good this season, then the eleventh-hour call-up to the Giro and subsequent season-ending injury ruined everything. However, he’d shown enough before that to reaffirm to me that he’s the real deal.
TURNER Ben (158) - well, obviously.
KANTER Max (157) - for an example of excitement factor not winning out, look no further. With Movistar not hunting points as actively, he found himself doing a lot of stage races without a leadout this year. At Astana, he should be doing all the points farming while Cavendish focuses on flashier stuff, and will also be paired with Selig which I think is pretty decent for his level. It won’t be spectacular, but he should be able to replicate his 2022 season, and maybe I get lucky and he gets sent to silly stuff like Taihu Lake too.
MASNADA Fausto (153) - the only pick whose success can be measured by the number of times Ilmaestro99 mentions him in a season. In all seriousness, he finally looks to be putting the mono behind him and if he has, he will do great.
COVI Alessandro (141) - another Italian who’s had a lot of bad luck post-spring of 2022. Hasn’t done what I expected him to after he got me a bunch of points back in 2021, but at this point he doesn’t even need to match that haul and his talent should still be there…
OLDANI Stefano (136) - should get more opportunities at Cofidis than he did this year and the French calendar seems like a good fit for him too.
MORGADO Antonio Tomas (132) - not the most stacked year in terms of exciting neo picks, but that just makes people like him stand out more.
DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac (124) - what applies to Morgado, does so even more strongly to him.
STAUNE-MITTET Johannes (108) - don’t rate him as highly as I usually would someone who’s come second at Avenir and won the U23 Giro, but a DNS on the final stage of the Czech Tour while in second on GC has kept him cheap enough for the 300-to-500-point season I expect of him to suffice.

BONNAMOUR Franck (97) - between finding a team really late, breaking his foot and catching bronchitis, he had bad luck in just about every department this year. When he’s actually healthy, he usually produces a steady stream of results, if said stream lasts for more than about two months spread around the season he’ll do fine.
ARRIETA LIZARRAGA Igor (82) - to what extent did him stalling this year have to do with being on Kern Pharma, and to what extent did it have to do with his own abilities? I’m really not sure, in the end he just about scraped into my team, mainly because there are a lot of smarter people than me who still believe in him.
GAZZOLI Michele (78) - the kind of pick that gets broken by the way we handle clinic issues in the game. But if you can get your career-best total in two months of being allowed to race, you really should be turning a major profit this year.
MOSCON Gianni (68) - the final returnee from my 2023 team. Not entirely sure the fire under his *** is ever going to be relit, but if it’s going to happen anywhere, it will be at Soudal. And if it does, a massive profit awaits.
CHRISTEN Jan (59) - as long as someone at UAE tells him he’s not going to be a GC guy at this level, he should develop nicely this year.
PEDRERO LOPEZ Antonio (56) - in the end, every combination of my final few riders left me either a bit too far below 7500 or with a rider I’m not as excited about, and he’s the one who ended up fitting the bill. Not really sure why he was underperforming a bit even before a crash at the Tour ended his season, but I do think his riding was better than 56 points suggests.
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander (50) - candidate number two of two for most popular rider of the year.
MAGNIER Paul (38) - back when I started working on my team in October, I was annoyed at him not turning pro yet because I felt he was ready and there weren’t many cheap options. And then Soudal came.
FAURE PROST Alexy (36) - between him and Busatto, Intermarché’s development team probably deserves a bit more credit than it gets. Really exciting climbing talent on a team that isn’t stacked in the way of climbers, I see him getting plenty of opportunities.
CAPIOT Amaury (10) - definitely more likely to return to form than the likes of Walls or Bevin in my book.
AUGUST Andrew (0) - the only rider skipping the U23s this year who I think is capable of adjusting fast enough to be worth it in this game. Deserves the hype he gets.

And then the riders who I was legitimately close to taking:

VAUQUELIN Kévin (519) - scoring machine in the first months of 2022 before he got injured, if he can do anything like that for a full year he could be a must have. However, I expect Arkéa to start easing him into more and more WT stuff, which is already less point-friendly before you consider that the climbing in most WT stage races is a bit too long and hard for him.
COSNEFROY Benoît (452) - should be a pretty reliable pick, I just ended up having to take him out in favour of higher-potential riders (chiefly Uijtdebroeks, as I did so after his transfer was confirmed).
TEUNS Dylan (384) - will almost certainly be more popular than Albanese, for whom I could have swapped him one-to-one. However, the reality is that - bad luck or not - three of his last four seasons have been lower-scoring, so I just wasn’t quite confident enough in him churning out more than a small profit to justify it.
KELDERMAN Wilco (324) - at the Vuelta, Jumbo said that he and Kuss were assigned the same role, only he crashed after looking really good on the first MTF. Given Jumbo’s prospective Giro lineup, that definitely got me thinking. On the other hand, if the Giro doesn’t work out, he’s probably going to be a bad pick and that risk is a bit higher for someone with a propensity for crashing at unfortunate moments…
ACKERMANN Pascal (323) - the Giro stage win tells me he isn’t done yet and he should see a clear improvement in his support and schedule at Israel. What swayed me was partially the fact that I expect him to do the Tour (and not score much), but mostly the awful success rate of the declining sprinter pick in recent years.
HAGENES Per Strand (308) - huge talent, but the reason he’s expensive is him riding away on the flat in the finale of two relatively flat one-day races, which I don’t think is a long-term way of scoring a bunch of points. If he was 50 points cheaper, he would be on this team, but now there’s just a little too much pressure on the development rate of the rest of his skillset for my liking.
SEGAERT Alec (198) - can he get enough points from TTs, associated GCs in easier races and attacks to make up for the absence of any sprint ability? Possibly, but I think he needs to improve his explosivity to really take advantage of the Belgian calendar and I’m just a little bit too sceptical of him pulling that off this year.
VAN DEN BROEK Frank (160) - extremely intriguing rider who really only started doing UCI-sanctioned races on a regular basis last season. Sometimes the inexperience shows, like when he crashed out of the Van der Poel-led winning group at the Super 8 Classic, but it also means there should be lots of potential that’s still untapped. The combination of being an attacking-minded rider and DSM did leave me with some doubts and he’s been in and out of my team, just couldn’t quite fit him in in the final iteration of my team.
THOMAS Benjamin (128) - the one rider for whom I almost broke my non-trackie rule. Got excited when he said he was going to do 40 race days pre-games, but then in an interview a couple of days ago it transpired that it would be almost all WT stage races. Yeah, no.
TRATNIK Jan (121) - another really late cut. I see him taking a lot of people by surprise in the classics this time round. But the risk of having to be a domestique everywhere is just too great.
PICCOLO Andrea (94) - it should be impossible for him to be as bad as he was in 2023 a second time, but then again it should have been impossible for him to be as bad as he was in 2023 a first time too. At a certain point, I felt that the main reason I was considering him is that I wanted some compensation for picking him this year, and duly booted him.
VALGREN HUNDAHL (ANDERSEN) Michael (89) - showed signs of recovery this year, but even his best results weren’t that impressive. He probably gets closer to his best this year, but he needs to be closer by a lot to be worth it and towards the end, I shuffled him out of the team for that reason.
WEEMAES Sasha (75) - should be doing a lot better now that he’s back in Belgium, especially given his physical issues for much of last year. He does need to get a career-best season to really be worth it though and I don’t know if that’s a fair expectation.
RYAN Archie (45) - don’t trust his knees in the slightest. He does actually start the season healthy for once, with him lining up in Australia, which makes me a little more antsy about not picking him.
WALLS Matthew (18) - if he can pull himself together, Groupama seems like a great team for a sprinter, but even when he’s been healthy his results have been a bit patchy throughout his road career.
BEVIN Patrick (10) - can’t find any proper explanation for his terrible 2023, which makes me worry the issue is DSM.

 

[Squire]

Only just started reading through the post-reveal posts, but I have to comment on this one!

Maybe I have gone a little overboard with youth this time round.

Wait until you see my team, then! You have actually gone for quite the opposite strategy to me with a lot of picks, and I think it will be very interesting to see how it pans out between our teams as the season go on. You're banking really hard on a lot of established riders to bounce back.

Kévin Vauquelin - 519

He is more in keeping with my own strategy though. Was quite excited about him myself, but didn't pick him in the end. I was a bit worried that his struggles in Paris-Nice (despite great form at the time) showcased some limitations on more proper climbs. But I think he can be very good.

Fabio Jakobsen - 502

I took him at 635 in 2022, and he was a bit meh. Considered him now as well, but felt like I found better options. I've been burned by established sprinters so many times in recent years. But he should absolutely improve. Axelgaard at feltet.dk seems to think the DSM train is so bad, but I think otherwise. They were bossing a lot of leadouts last year, and they have signed some very good additional lead-outs.

Ethan Hayter - 476 [...] He honestly had a really poor level last year

Broke his collarbone twice.

Alberto Bettiol - 349

Your Grosu! (you might not have played this game long enough to get the joke)

Per Strand Hagenes - 308

He was annoyingly expensive which might make him less popular and thus potentially more important for my team. Three wins in European pro races (two of which were even one-day races) in a season before turning pro is mightily impressive, and especially his win in the Münsterland Giro was insane. Jumbo is a stacked team but let's not forget that they managed to win cobbled classics with four different riders last year. If you're good enough, you'll get the chance. And Per certainly seems good enough.

I don't think I'll do a full pick-by-pick breakdown on my team, so I'll give my view on Per here, who I also have. He is indeed annoyingly expensive which meant he was far from being an early inclusion in my team, but he made himself expensive by riding a calendar which didn't really suit him much. In the one really suitable race, he out-gregoired Gregoire. He's insane on short, punchy hills and a big engine with which to keep the gap. I think he can really break through despite his age, and when he's not riding big cobbled classics he's likely to have a very good calendar with some easier one-days, Slovakia tour and and such races.

Sam Bennett - 302
Mikkel Honoré - 169
Filippo Baroncini - 163
Maximilian Schachmann - 159
Michael Valgren - 89
Matthew Walls - 18

These picks especially show a different strategy between us. A lot of bouncing back needs to happen here. Especially Bennett is very un-exciting to me, and I have doubts we'll ever see the best Honoré, Schachmann and Valgren again. I've never really rated Baroncini, and I think he'll mainly be a donkey at UAE. Walls is one of my non-picks who I'm the most scared of though. I usually love riders who can pick up easy French points and I had him last year, but he didn't fit the puzzle this time. And his non-scoring is not only down to 'external' issues, so I'm curious if he can really get back on track. Could be great for you (and seemingly a lot of others).

Now, back to catching up on this thread! Hopefully I won't be inspired to write this much in response to every post!

 

[Salvarani]

Here is a breakdown of my team and the riders I picked for the game. I think it is the most time I have spent on making a team and I am hoping it will do well this year, you never know. Anyway, without further ado...

Juan Ayuso, 1023 points
Missed most of the spring but he is still a young rider with great potential, who can score points in pretty much every race he lines up for. In a full season he should have a good chance at doing just that. Huge talent that could have a big season ahead of him.

Magnus Sheffield, 573 points
He had an alright season with some good performances, but also missed a couple of months since he was affected by the crash involving the late Gino Mäder. He is a rider with great potential and someone who, depending on how he develops, can become one of the best riders in the peloton. Stage-races, one-day races and the classics… the kid can become anything. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a big breakthrough this year.

Joshua Tarling, 530 points
He had an incredible end to the season and could be even stronger this year. All aboard on the Tarling-Express!

Richard Carapaz, 496 points
A pretty terrible season for his standard, but also unlucky with crashes. Barely scored any points from the GC in any stage-race. Didn't finish a GT. Most of his points came from one-day races, where he did very well actually. He should be capable of a better season and have a good chance at scoring more points.

Biniam Girmay, 456 points
He could not deliver in the year after his breakthrough in the classics and was quite unlucky with crashes. He will be looking to bounce back and has potential to score points in many races.

Sergio Higuita, 451 points
Decent start last year, but after that it was not a season that went very well for him. He had a great year in 2022 and he is also someone that will be looking to bounce back this year.

Max Poole, 382 points
He missed some time during the spring, but once back he was great in some tough WT stage-races and showed his talent with some very good climbing performances. Rode his first GT, in the Vuelta, which was more to learn and gain experience. It will be interesting to follow his further development.

Antonio Tiberi, 347 points
He started last season pretty good, before his incident. Maybe rightfully got some time off the bike after that. Trek cut him loose. He came back later in the season, after signing with Bahrain, and rode very well. He has been highly regarded and is still young. Hopefully he will be focused on showing what a great bike rider he can be and put the other stuff behind him.

Lucas Plapp, 341 points
Let's see if he can perform for a whole season, instead of only in Jan-Feb, now that he has gotten his move to Jayco. He is a rider that could be due a breakthrough, so why not take a chance that it might happen now? Picked him last year as well and feels like it is not time to give up just yet.

Per Hagenes, 308 points
Won three pro races last season and now, officially, will be taking the step up to race with the first team for Visma after already having raced with the first team for a few races. He is a great talent and might not be available for this price again, who knows.

Fred Wright, 298 points
He has been a bit hit (oops) and miss, so far, but finishing 7th and 8th in Ronde for two consecutive years are two very good results. Won the national road race last season. Other than that there wasn't much and his season ended prematurely with a broken collarbone. He will be motivated to start well this season and Ronde will likely be a big target for him again during the spring. He has unlocked potential for the rest of the classics, because if he can ride well in Ronde he should be able to do it in other races as well. The Olympics will also probably be a race he will target this season. I think he could have a good year.

Thymen Arensman, 283 points
Outside of finishing 6th in the Giro, last season was one to forget for him. Slow start until showing a good level in the Giro, but then suffered a pretty horrible crash in the Vuelta which ended his season prematurely. He has shown very good potential and he will want to bounce back.

Dani Martinez, 271 points
He started well last season and won Volta ao Algarve, but then did nothing for the rest of the season. He will now race with Bora, where he will probably be used as a dom during the GTs but can finish high up as well. However, it is probably in the one-week races and one-day races where he should score a majority of his points.

Egan Bernal, 262 points
It is about 2 years now since his horrible crash and it takes a lot of time to recover from something like that. There are still concerns about his back problems and if he will ever be able to reach his former level. However, I think he had some good climbing performances last season and he finished both of the GTs. Maybe he won't win another GT again, but he could still be a rider for the top 10 and more in stage-races. His ceiling could still be high if things start to align and he will “only” be 27 in a few days. Just improving a little bit more should see him have a decent chance at scoring a profit.

Francesco Busatto, 186 points
He won the LBL U23 race and had other good results as well last season. He is a talent and could potentially win stages or score points in plenty of one-day races this year, if he has a good season.

Luke Lamperti, 176 points
He probably ended up signing for one of the best teams for him to develop more at. A team that has done very well, historically, with bringing up riders like him. Jakobsen and Vernon have left SQS, so he should early on have the role as the team's second sprinter behind Merlier. It is always tricky to know how a rider will fare in their first pro year, but he might have a pretty good chance to do well immediately.

Madis Mihkels, 175 points
I picked him last year already, but it was maybe a year too early. He is strong and can also sprint, so he has potential this one. Won a stage in the Deutschland Tour. However, he ended the season in a controversial way without going further into it. He has suffered the consequences of his and his teammates' mistakes. Hopefully a bit of personal growth has hopefully taken place during the off-season from the young man and that he will be focused on becoming a great bike rider.

Ben Turner, 158 points
He started really well last season, but then crashed in Omloop and his classics season was pretty much ruined. He didn't find any good form again during the season and underperformed, like a few others on Ineos. However, he has shown great potential and is a rider who could be an outsider for a big win. Just being thereabouts in races could yield many points.

Antonio Morgado, 132 points
He is a young talent that signed with UAE, that may already be able to challenge for the win in some smaller one-day races this season. Better to pick than miss out, if he delivers immediately.

Isaac Del Toro, 124 points
I guess that you are pretty good, if you win the Tour de l'Avenir. He signed with the UAE team and it is probably best to just pick him this year, without overthinking it. Hard to predict what the ceiling is.

Andrea Piccolo, 94 points
Lol, he might have been the worst pick last year? Only positive is that it hopefully sets him up for a big redemption arc this season, so he gets picked again for me.

Gianni Moscon, 68 points
He had two pretty bad seasons with Astana, but also had periods of sickness and broke his collarbone early last season. He should still be capable of much more and could score a decent profit, if he can get back in shape. SQS might be a good fit for him.

Jan Christen, 59 points
He is a great talent and I would not be surprised if he does well this year already. Another one who is just better to pick than risk missing out on, I guess.

Nairo Quintana, 50 points
The return of Nairoman and he is back with Movistar. Finished 3rd in the national RR last season and that was his only result. In a full season he should have a pretty good chance at scoring a profit.

Gianluca Pollefliet, 47 points
He has been riding for the Lotto Development Team, with good results, but has now gone pro and signed with Decathlon - AG2R for the next three years. He is a sprinter and rider that will likely be suited for the classics in the future. Hopefully they will give him a lot of chances in smaller races.

Archie Ryan, 45 points
He has had some injuries but also showcased his talent. Available for a cheap price.

Álvaro José Hodeg, 42 points
He has missed a lot of time due to injury. Came back last year after no races in 2022. Hopefully he has a chance to score a profit this season.

Gijs Leemreize, 35 points
He had a good season in 2021, where he finished 4th in the Tour de l'Avenir and won the Ronde de l'Isard. Had a good Giro in 2022. Struggled with injuries this season. He has moved on from Jumbo to DSM instead, where he will be a part of their GC-squad. Hopefully gets a few opportunities throughout the season to show what he can do.

Kevin Colleoni, 25 points
He was a talent a few years ago but struggled with some physical problems in recent times. Signed with Intermarché for the next couple years and he is a part of a bit of an Italian group they got going on with Rota, Petilli and Busatto. Hopefully past his problems and will want to get back on track with his career.

Matthew Walls, 18 points
He is an Olympic gold medalist, but also managed to win Gran Piemonte and a stage at theTour of Norway in 2021. Spent time recovering from a hip fracture last season. He has now moved to FDJ from Bora. It is said he will be looking to focus more on his road career. He is a cheap pick, that is worth a short.

Riley Pickrell, 16 points
Young sprinter who is stepping up to the first team at Israel after racing with their academy team. Won a stage in the Tour de l'Avenir last season. Hopefully he gets a few opportunities to pick up points here and there.

Amaury Capiot, 10 points
He was recovering from an injury for most of the season and only made it back towards the very end of it. Real shame for him missing so much time, since he had his best year in his career in 2022. Cheap pick that should have a good chance at scoring a profit.

Henri Vandenabeele, 5 points
He is a rider who is coming back to Lotto after a couple of lackluster seasons at DSM. He used to race for Lotto's development team, for whom he finished 2nd in Baby-Giro and 2nd in Ronde de l'Isard in 2020, before moving to DSM. In 2022 he finished 9th in the Tour of Oman and 10th in Tour of Türkiye. A result like that again would put him into profit immediately, so why not.

There it is, the best of luck to everyone!

 

[SafeBet]

ALBANESE Vincenzo (380) - was really close to picking him in 2022, when he would have been a strong unique pick. Perhaps that’s clouding my judgment here and I’m expecting him to be a rarer pick, but I see a rider who raced a limited program last year due to injury, moving to a team that does lots of races that should suit him, that also needs a lot of points from said races to stay in the WT. That just ticks too many boxes.

Love this pick and hate myself because it's the kind of pick I'm never brave enough to make at that price.
Happy we share Gazzoli though.

 

[Kazistuta]

Frederik Wandahl - 164
His 2023 season was marred by a heavy crash in training where he broke his leg. He did come back, though, but it was only his top 10 in the Bretagne Classic that really stood out in the last couple of months. I think he has the potential for more than he has shown so far and is the most promising Swede in a long time.

I'm sorry, what! Toby! Someone else probably pointed out your grave error already, but here in my morning commute I almost choked

 

[laarsland]

Good to see a lot of other people also wishing perennial bad luck-HandiCapiot a good season

 

[tobydawq]

Lol, again Bettiol is only picked twice

So another round with him being my leader (backed up nicely by Vauquelin who is only picked by four other players).

You'll all be sorry when Alberto takes Olympic gold and in a single sweep scores more points than in the whole of 2023!

 

[tobydawq]

I'm sorry, what! Toby! Someone else probably pointed out your grave error already, but here in my morning commute I almost choked

Hehe I had to write a few controversial things to check whether people really read all these posts

But well, he's born and raised in Sweden, has Swedish parents (I think?) and yet for some reason always took the trip over Øresund to race his bike. You can also hear the way he talks, that he isn't a native Danish speaker at all.

Maybe both his parents are not Swedish in which case I should probably backtrack a little.

 

[Squire]

That day you always look forward to with a slight edge of dread…

Agree! And this time I'm scared of a lot of the teams I'm seeing. People are getting really good at this game by now.

I also skipped everyone who doesn’t have a good excuse for having a disappointing 2023

This was also my theme this year.

I'm liking a lot of your picks. Albanese can be great, and Gazzoli was very close to being wrestled into my team. We share the Oldani pick, which I'm quite excited about. I also had similar thoughts about some of your close omissions, Kelderman in particular.

 

[Kazistuta]

Hehe I had to write a few controversial things to check whether people really read all these posts

But well, he's born and raised in Sweden, has Swedish parents (I think?) and yet for some reason always took the trip over Øresund to race his bike. You can also hear the way he talks, that he isn't a native Danish speaker at all.

Maybe both his parents are not Swedish in which case I should probably backtrack a little.

That makes me much calmer Actually I generally like your reasoning, especially on the picks we have in common (read my team thoughts and you'll see), and also I had Wandahl on my short list, as he showed enough promise last year, but I think Bora/RB is stuffed with captains this year that I'm unsure if he's gonna get much chances.

 

[HoudiniCycling]

My biggest regret is missing on Capiot... I constructed my team in a hurry and just missed him. Most of the other popular picks that I don't have, I considered but chose not to select. If I remembered Capiot I would've selected him for sure.

 

[RedheadDane]

I'm sorry, what! Toby! Someone else probably pointed out your grave error already, but here in my morning commute I almost choked

I suppose it says something about Swedish cycling these days, that the "most promising Swede", is Danish.

But well, he's born and raised in Sweden, has Swedish parents (I think?) and yet for some reason always took the trip over Øresund to race his bike. You can also hear the way he talks, that he isn't a native Danish speaker at all.

Surely, he's got his Danish citizenship somehow...

 

[armchairclimber]

My motley crew. I may not trouble the leader board, but I'll have fun and lots to cheer about... probably some good, high scoring weeks. Light on established sprinters.... hopefully the young speedies come good.

VAN WILDER Ilan - have I made a mistake? Is he injured? Expected him on more teams. I like that he is spikily competitive...and was outspoken about the Jumbo merger. Exciting rider to follow and hopefully not just in the service of Evenepoel.

WAERENSKJOLD Søren - young. Fast. Can TT. Fairly consistent. Potential. Turns out a unique pick. Unexpected.

KRON Andreas Lorentz - just kept noticing him popping up with the best last year.

ALAPHILIPPE Julian - I am a fan. Hope he is back near his best. I reminded myself that Valverde, a similar type of rider, could be a decent pick late in his career.

MARTINEZ Lenny - he did well for me last year. Still young with potential.

TARLING Joshua - ditto. Serious talent.

POOLE Max - another who kept popping up last year.

TIBERI Antonio - young. Decent GC potential.

PLAPP Lucas - Sticking with him again. Points on the board already. Should have a better year.

ONLEY Oscar - disappointed a little last year but sticking with him. I like Oscars.

ARENSMAN Thymen - has to do better this year.

BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley - got to have him.

SHEEHAN Riley - a late addition. Good consistent results. Clearly quick.

PELLIZZARI Giulio - I'd have preferred him to move to another team. Could be anything.

LAMPERTI Luke - searching for a young speedster.

SCHACHMANN Maximilian - surely. I mean surely worth sticking with. I like him.

FRETIN Milan - another youngster who mixed it with fast guys. Speculative.

MORGADO Antonio Tomas - sticking with him. The guy is a winner.

DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac - tried and tested Avenir method.

NERURKAR Lukas - I used to watch his Dad racing (running) locally. Good genes and a name I wasn't going to miss.

ROOTKIN-GRAY Jack - multiple race winner with time on his side.

QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander - should be guaranteed profit barring accidents.

RYAN Archie - winner. Mixed it with the best U23s.

BRUTTOMESSO Alberto - young. Quick. Multiple winner at lower level.

VAN SINTMAARTENSDIJK Roel - bit of a filler, but has won. Good team for point scoring.

PICKERING Finlay - great name. Another BV youngster with potential.

VANDENABEELE Henri - a filler, but with good form a couple of years back. Hit and hope.

HERZOG Emil - gave Morgado some competition 2 years back. Cheap pick.

BRENNER Mauro - totally speculative.

AUGUST Andrew - must be one of the more popular 0 pointers in recent years. Just hope he gets to race. And yes, this is the 0 pointer that I mentioned upthread, saying he'd be a popular pick.

NORDHAGEN Jørgen - I saw an interview with August where he picked this guy as his main competitor. Checked him out ... and he is in...despite the team.

STORM Theodor - 0 points and mucho hype. Might be too young to race, but I hope not.

BELOKI FERNANDEZ Markel - when you need a 0 point rider to make up the numbers.

So, my top three are a worry .... but at least when they score, and they will, they won't be scoring for loads of other teams too.

 

[tobydawq]

I suppose it says something about Swedish cycling these days, that the "most promising Swede", is Danish.



Surely, he's got his Danish citizenship somehow...

Maybe you gave him mine after taking it from me

 

[RedheadDane]

Maybe you gave him mine after taking it from me

I gave it back!
I think...

But of course, you did just refer to a Danish rider as another nationality, so... afraid I'm gonna have to take it again.

 

[laarsland]

Fair to say we're probably talking about different levels of potential and performance already, but I took a look at the program and results Michael Leonard had for 2023 and quickly decided against including August and Storm (now August Storm, that's a proper name).

For what it's worth I think it's a really nice, cushioned introduction Leonard had. Really should've had a year in the U23-ranks before moving up.

 

[tobydawq]

Basque Street's back, alright!

16 riders from last year's team have made the cut once again, but there's also some new kids on the block. A third of the team are zero pointers, and another third scored fewer points in 2023 than they did in 2022. The team is also more much more Basque than it was last year.

I'm more than 1000 points below budget, but I'm not confident that I'll be left with much of a profit, if any, when the season is over. So even if your teams fail spectacularly, you still won't be finishing in last place.


Mikel Landa, Pello Bilbao, Alex Aranburu, Oier Lazkano, and Ion and Gorka Izagirre had a profit of more than 1200 points combined in 2023, but I expect them to perform way worse this year. I'll be happy, If they can keep the loss at less than 1000 points.

Markel Beloki has had a guaranteed place ever since it was announced that he would be turning pro with EF. He's been picked by a few other people as well, but I'm actually not sure he isn't overhyped yet, so I probably wouldn't have picked him, if I had been using my brain instead of my heart (but that isn't really something I've been known to do throughout my life).

The Euskaltel neo-pros, Iker Mintegi, Nicolás Alustiza and Unai Zubeldia (no relation to He-Who-Can-Not-Be-Seen), were of course impossible to look past.

I have high hopes for Hugo and Unai Aznar to become their generation's Izagirre brothers.
While they probably do have proper Basque ancestry, they come from the most southern part of Navarre, and judged from their interviews with the Txirrindulariak YouTube channel, they don't speak Basque.

Morné van Niekerk is not Basque at all, but he did get some of his first racing experience on European soil while riding for the then Fundación Euskadi amateur team back in 2016, where he was teammates with Gotzon Martín and Cyril Barthe.

Sergio Higuita has been included yet again due to his short stint in orange in 2019. This year he's joined by his compatriot Sergio Henao. Henao took his first ever WT stage win in the 2013 Itzulia and was also one of the race's top riders during his peek years, which is why he's been handed a wild card spot on my team. Now that he's back at conti level, I hope he'll be able to get a few more decent results before he calls it a day.

Math wizard Yago Aguirre didn't score any points last year, so I'm not expecting a lot from him. But since he rides for a German team, he'll get the chance to do races that a lot of my other riders won't.

The last guy I'll highlight is an amateur rider. Last season, he scored his first ever CQ points by finishing in the top 10 in a French one-day race, so chances are he won't do much better in 2024. But the picture below was more than enough evidence to secure him one of my 33 spots.
I'm honoured to introduce you to the proud French Basque rider and winner of the KOM jersey at the 2023 Essor Breton, Gari Lagnet.

Spoiler: My full team

LANDA MEANA Mikel
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello
ARANBURU DEBA Alexander
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Ion
LAZKANO LOPEZ Oier
HIGUITA GARCIA Sergio Andres
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka
JUARISTI ARRIETA Txomin
BIZKARRA ETXEGIBEL Mikel
MARTIN SANZ Gotzon
LASTRA MARTINEZ Jonathan
OKAMIKA BENGOETXEA Ander
FRAILE MATARRANZ Omar
BARTHE Cyril
ARRIETA LIZARRAGA Igor
ABERASTURI IZAGA Jon
SORARRAIN AGIRREZABALA Gorka
RODRIGUEZ GARAICOECHEA Oscar
VAN NIEKERK Morne
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis
CUADRADO RUIZ DE GAUNA Unai
LAGNET Gari
ESPARZA GARIN Unai
BELOKI FERNANDEZ Markel
URIARTE BELZUNEGI Diego
ALVAREZ ARRIOLA Imanol
ALUSTIZA GOENAGA Nicolas
MINTEGUI CLAVER Iker
ZUBELDIA ELDUAIEN Unai
AGUIRRE SUBIJANA Yago
ARRIOLABENGOA BEITIA Julen
AZNAR VIJUESCA Unai
AZNAR VIJUESCA Hugo

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggxfZlheUHU&ab_channel=Velogos

 

[Riverside]

two unique picks: KOPECKY Tomas and DEWEIRDT Siebe... that shouldn't be game changer but would be a pleasant bonus if they can overachieve significantly.

What is interesting is that BARGUIL Warren and MATTHEWS Michael were picked by one team except me. I absolutely get it - why they are not so popular, but wrote my argument in the intro post yesterday.

Seems it will be boom or bust season but honestly that is something I was targeting for. I've been on top10 before and want to risk to get closer to podium this year with less expected picks.

 

[Earns1985]

My biggest regret is missing on Capiot... I constructed my team in a hurry and just missed him. Most of the other popular picks that I don't have, I considered but chose not to select. If I remembered Capiot I would've selected him for sure.

Jep, I also totally missed him. All other popular picks that I didn´t pick, I had been in my longlist, but Capiot, well I just didn´t have him on my radar.. I think, I just didn´t scroll deep enough in the CQ Ranking 2023. (He was in place 1803 in 2023 and was 66 in 2022)

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Hehe I had to write a few controversial things to check whether people really read all these posts

But well, he's born and raised in Sweden, has Swedish parents (I think?) and yet for some reason always took the trip over Øresund to race his bike. You can also hear the way he talks, that he isn't a native Danish speaker at all.

Maybe both his parents are not Swedish in which case I should probably backtrack a little.

It seems his mother is originally from Herning.

 

[tobydawq]

It seems his mother is from Herning.

I can't argue that isn't Denmark.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I can't argue that isn't Denmark.

At least he only represents Denmark, unlike the runner Nick Ekelund-Arenander, who has won multiple Danish and Swedish national titles and competed for both countries in international events.

 

[Total Package]

My team:

AYUSO PESQUERA Juan
MILAN Jonathan
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
HAYTER Ethan
GIRMAY HAILU Biniam
HIGUITA GARCIA Sergio Andres
PLAPP Lucas
BENNETT Sam
ARENSMAN Thymen
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe
MEINTJES Louis
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
FOSS Tobias Svendsen
LAURANCE Axel
VAN UDEN Casper
LAMPERTI Luke
SCHACHMANN Maximilian
TURNER Ben
KANTER Max
MASNADA Fausto
COVI Alessandro
THOMAS Benjamin
STAUNE-MITTET Johannes
RAFFERTY Darren
BOVEN Lars
PICCOLO Andrea
VALGREN HUNDAHL (ANDERSEN) Michael
MOSCON Gianni
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander
RYAN Archie
COLLEONI Kevin
LE HUITOUZE Eddy
CAPIOT Amaury

Seems I didn't miss any really obvious picks. Also I already scored my first points today with Plapp's TT win!

Out of my more expensive picks, Milan is the least popular, so I am especially hoping for a great season for him.