The 2024 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[EvansIsTheBest]

To be a good pick he would probably have to score +1250 points.

Ideally even have the possibility to score +1500 points.

Sort of like Skjelmose 2023.

If he does that, great pick.

I, personally, was just not willing to take that risk. It was sort of how I thought about C. Rodriguez as well.

I "only" settled on Ayuso. Since he has potential for +2000 points imo.

Van Wilder and Rodriguez are not in the same class as riders. One guy is getting his points in the Deutschland Tour and the other in the Tour de France. Come on.

 

[armchairclimber]

I share some of the skepticism about Van Wilder's upside, but I had him last year and I believe in his talent so he could spring a surprise. Just think there were a lot of safer picks in his price range.

Speaking of potential, I'm curious to hear what kind of expectations some of the 28 Thibau Nys backers have, considering he starts his season at Romandie.

I briefly touched on Cian when replying to skidmark's team, but I'm also curious to hear predictions from some more of the Cianistas.

Would also be interesting to read the thoughts on Andew August, Emil Herzog, Markel Beloki and Joshua Tarling from some of their many backers.

August ... zero cost and likely to score, even if just picking up a few points. Herzog - super cheap and remember that he was rated two years ago, so an easy gamble. Beloki ... again, a zero point rider on a WT team who should score a handful of participation points if nothing else. Tarling is a different kettle of fish. I picked him last year on the stregth of his TTs and potential ... he more than delivered. I think he only makes sense as a pick if you think he may develop into an all round GC contender.... which I do. It might not be this year though.

 

[Squire]

Looking at your team, Pidcock is a fun gamble as an expensive guy that has some upside left. I'm just not sure if it's the right year for him with the Olympics. Then again that might mean fewer stage races and more one day classics to reduce his workload which could actually help him score much.

Segaert and Foss I didn't really consider but all they need is a couple of good TTs at the Worlds and Olympics and you are in business. Oldani makes theoritical sense but I just can't trust a rider going to Cofidis.

Van Uden is an interesting candidate to break out in year 2. Lots of sprinters need a year to get used to the pros. Piganzoli I liked but he was too expensive to fit in. Beyond that we have a ton of cheaper guys in common (which is good news for me because that's where you tend to vastly outperform me).

With Pidcock, it's actually the increased stage race focus that tempted me to select him when Vine became less attractive. He's doing Algarve where he should equal or better his tally from last year. Then Paris-Nice as a potential favourite which could make up for him not defending Omloop/Strade points. He'll peak for the Ardennes which gives him a good chance at defending his points there without the cobbles to tire him out beforehand. Unsure which other races he'll do before/after Ardennes, but with no MTB in May, he could get some more points somewhere. Then Dauphine/Tour with more stage race specific preparation, and it doesn't take much to increase his tally there. Then everything afterwards is bonus compared to 2023, and as I said, he should be among the big favourites for Zürich. It's the fourth year in a row that I have him, so my persistance better pay off soon!

With Segaert and Foss, the championships are almost just a bonus (and I don't think Segaert will be selected, at least not for Olympics). Small stage races are my main hopes for them.

Yours and skidmark's team are about as good as an Ayuso team can get, I think. Ayuso and Rodriguez were in my very first draft as well, so I definitely think it's a sound strategy. I'm just hoping to finally profit from being a bit different. If you match my cheaper picks, you're gonna be dangerous, because you usually have success with your more mainstream expensive picks.

As I also said somewhere, it's getting so much harder to pick out the best teams pre-game, as almost everyone are getting really good at this. I see 33 dangerous picks in a lot of teams now, whereas when I returned to the game with quite some success in 2016, there was still a lot of questionable picking going on.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I love the team with Pogacar AND Remco (Amethyst). There's also an interesting one with Remco, Van Aert and Van der Poel (Bicycle_boy).

Interestingly, there are three Nacer Bouhannis picked.

Or possibly the same Nacer Bouhanni picked three times.

 

[bminchow]

So looking at the full list of entries, we have 525 riders between us, including one woman (Izzy Sharp) and one fairly high profile announcement of retirement as of last week (Oss)

Izzy? Oops. She is awesome though.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

I share some of the skepticism about Van Wilder's upside, but I had him last year and I believe in his talent so he could spring a surprise. Just think there were a lot of safer picks in his price range.

Speaking of potential, I'm curious to hear what kind of expectations some of the 28 Thibau Nys backers have, considering he starts his season at Romandie.

I briefly touched on Cian when replying to skidmark's team, but I'm also curious to hear predictions from some more of the Cianistas.

Would also be interesting to read the thoughts on Andew August, Emil Herzog, Markel Beloki and Joshua Tarling from some of their many backers.

Well Cian is Jumbo's leader for the Giro and based on historical data that's apparently enough to guarantee he'll win it so he's going to be a good pick. More seriously, I think there's a certain element of FOMO due to his upside. It's not the most likely outcome but if I told you that Uijtedebroeks was the 3rd best GC rider in the world in 2024, I think that's still a fairly believable scenario. I don't think you can say that of anyone in that price range (like mayyyyyyyyyyybe Geoghegan Hart but he comes with a ton more questions marks around availability and consistency). Cian also has a reasonably high floor so even if he doesn't turn into a must have, it's hard to see him completely sink the team either.

Yeah Nys starting so late is an issue. But I had just reconfigured my team to fit him in when I heard the news and I believe in his talent enough to leave him in. He didn't start scoring until Romandie in 2023 either so at least he's not racing less this year. I'm also hoping he'll get some reps in late season one day races this time around. If that happens he could get to 500-600 points.

Beloki, Herzog and August are on my team solely because of their price. I don't expect much from them this year.

Tarling had like a perfect schedule last year and I'm not sure he's ready to perform outside of TTs at the WT level so I'm not expecting a big improvement point wise this year.

 

[laarsland]

Or possibly the same Nacer Bouhanni picked three times.

Poor Rayane, the lesser brother even in retirement

 

[Anderis]

Van Wilder and Rodriguez are not in the same class as riders. One guy is getting his points in the Deutschland Tour and the other in the Tour de France. Come on.

It doesn't really matter that much.

I remember not picking Skjelmose in another game for 2023 because his price was as much as guys getting their points in GTs and monuments while he got his 2022 in races like Tour of Luxembourg and had just one top10 in a WT race.

He ended up being a much better pick than most riders I've got from similar price range.

 

[vladimir]

Lol, again Bettiol is only picked twice

So another round with him being my leader (backed up nicely by Vauquelin who is only picked by four other players).

You'll all be sorry when Alberto takes Olympic gold and in a single sweep scores more points than in the whole of 2023!

It's you and me again tobydawq ! Thought he would be slighly more popular this year, but I am again confident that Bettiol will show his potential in more than two or three races this year.

 

[Earns1985]

I share some of the skepticism about Van Wilder's upside, but I had him last year and I believe in his talent so he could spring a surprise. Just think there were a lot of safer picks in his price range.

Speaking of potential, I'm curious to hear what kind of expectations some of the 28 Thibau Nys backers have, considering he starts his season at Romandie.

I briefly touched on Cian when replying to skidmark's team, but I'm also curious to hear predictions from some more of the Cianistas.

Would also be interesting to read the thoughts on Andew August, Emil Herzog, Markel Beloki and Joshua Tarling from some of their many backers.

Well about Cian. He is mostly a stage racer. He finished every stage race in the top 10 last year, but not higher. This year he will have the issue, that he will not be able to ride every stage race for his own result. Gran Camino and Tirreno Addriatico are for example scheduled together with Vingegaard. It will depend a lot on his giro. If the giro field stays that week, I can see him finish top 5 there. Point wise it will then depend a lot how much stages the breakaways will take. And then of course the autumm and especially his schedule (which is still in the air) will have an impact. See him maximum at 1000 points, so I didn´t pick him.

Nys as I wrote in my team summary is really pretty bad, that he will start that late in his season. He would be a perfect pointer for the classic season (especially for smaller races). But well the season is always long and with a good autumn a lot is still possible. But don´t know, if I would have still picked him, if I would have the news about his late beginning earlier..

 

[Squire]

Nys as I wrote in my team summary is really pretty bad, that he will start that late in his season. He would be a perfect pointer for the classic season (especially for smaller races). But well the season is always long and with a good autumn a lot is still possible. But don´t know, if I would have still picked him, if I would have the news about his late beginning earlier..

Reminds me a bit about when Van Aert signed for Jumbo in 2019. His full (and quite limited) schedule was released just after the CQ game started, and I think I asked the question whether his backers would still have picked him if they had that info. He still ended up turning a tidy profit, but not more than you'd expect as a minimum from a rider at his price. I don't rate Nys as high as Van Aert, but I also don't know what his road season will actually look like. So he could still be good. Trek tend to do a lot of small races where he can score well. The big worry is a potential early end to the season to be ready for the cyclocross winter, I guess.

 

[Salvarani]

Van Wilder and Rodriguez are not in the same class as riders. One guy is getting his points in the Deutschland Tour and the other in the Tour de France. Come on.

So?

He will have to do it again and more, which of course is possible.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

It doesn't really matter that much.

I remember not picking Skjelmose in another game for 2023 because his price was as much as guys getting their points in GTs and monuments while he got his 2022 in races like Tour of Luxembourg and had just one top10 in a WT race.

He ended up being a much better pick than most riders I've got from similar price range.

You'll find exceptions to every rule when it comes to rider progression. Skjelmose is definitely one. I just don't think that expecting exceptions to repeat themselves is a sustainable strategy.

To get the amount of points Van Wilder needs to be a good pick he can either go full Hirschi which isn't Quick Step's MO or he needs to score a lot in the biggest races in the world. So does Rodriguez but Rodriguez has proven he can go toe to toe with the best riders in the world in those races and mostly hold his own. Van Wilder for a number of reasons hasn't yet. That doesn't mean he can't get there but I don't think you can just pencil him in to make that jump. Most guys just never get there and I'm not sure why people would take on that risk when they don't have to .

 

[Jakob747]

LAURANCE Axel 187

After a dissapointing 2023 he showed his big talent is still there in the u23 worlds and I expect he will improve a lot this year.

1st in the Popularity Rank this year - You did indeed roll the dice as promised this year .

Anyway, I wanted to ask you about your view on Corbin Strong? I remember you had a preference for that type of rider characteristics before. How do you rate him?

 

[skidmark]

Isn't Stannard excluded from this competition.
Picked by two team

Yes, riders on the provisionally suspended list, as noted in the first post, are the only riders not eligible for this game. So I'll be taking Stannard off those two teams. Practically it won't make a difference because he won't be riding anyway, but rather than something like a retired rider (who you can pick but there's small chance he'll ride), provisionally suspended list riders are ineligible.

Thanks for catching that folks.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

So if there is some sort of sense that a rider who is frequently picked is more confident of getting good returns, then there should be some sort of way of making predictions based on that.

There is no confident equation, but I have created an expectation for each rider of 1.3 x Cost + 200 (I consider a that sort of gain to be the minimum to consider a rider a success), which is multiplied by a confidence factor of 1+ picks/100 (so we are multiplying Quintana by 1.78, and a unique pick by 1.01)

So, on the basis of (1.3C+200)(1+P/100), the top ten will be:

1	skidmark	22595.6
2	MADRAZO	22582.5
3	Nyssinator	22513.8
4	Hugo Koblet	22332.7
5	triley36	22194.3
6	Anderis	22155.4
7	Total Package	21970.8
8	EvansIsTheBest	21965.5
9	Salvarani	21920.5
10	shalgo	21914.6

Those are not predictions for what the scores will be, just an indication of the closeness.
It's essentially the popularity table, but weighted towards popular expensive riders. It's very close, so a slight change in the variables would change those placings.

We'll see...

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Yes, riders on the provisionally suspended list, as noted in the first post, are the only riders not eligible for this game.

So Izzy Sharp is allowed?

 

[Salvarani]

Agree on the 1000+ riders. Ayuso is clearly the most enticing option. I gave Van Aert some serious consideration but once I decided on Ayuso + Rodriguez there just wasn't any way to fit him in.

I've been very high on Girmay for a while now. I was one of three people to pick him back in 2021. He was also on my classics team in 2022 as a unique pick (he would have won me the game if the rest of my squad hadn't been utter trash) and obviously on my main team (where he did help me win because the rest of that team wasn't utter trash). I just think he was very unlucky last year and 2022 is a better reflection of his true talent level. But there's a case to say that he hasn't been the same since his Giro incident whether it's the after effects of said incident or the pressure of representing an entire continent at the top level.

Cosnefroy and Higuita are talented but inconsistent so they might put up a couple big results but I found it hard to believe they would sustain their peak long enough to push into 1000+ territory and burn me too much if I omitted them.

I understand what you are saying about the green jersey and I don't necessarily disagree. I just think that any time you have a completely uniqe team construction + a team that doesn't suck (which means getting some unexpected contributions down the roster for Bicycle Boy because three guys alone isn't going to cut it) then you have a decent chance. Especially when all the Ayuso team are going to spread out the points between themselves if/when he performs well.

Looking at your team, Pidcock is a fun gamble as an expensive guy that has some upside left. I'm just not sure if it's the right year for him with the Olympics. Then again that might mean fewer stage races and more one day classics to reduce his workload which could actually help him score much.

Segaert and Foss I didn't really consider but all they need is a couple of good TTs at the Worlds and Olympics and you are in business. Oldani makes theoritical sense but I just can't trust a rider going to Cofidis.

Van Uden is an interesting candidate to break out in year 2. Lots of sprinters need a year to get used to the pros. Piganzoli I liked but he was too expensive to fit in. Beyond that we have a ton of cheaper guys in common (which is good news for me because that's where you tend to vastly outperform me).

I dont think I all the way agree with the assessment of Cosnefroy and Higuita.

Cosnefroy: Except for his first pro season (2018), where he scored 229 points, he was fairly consistent point-wise 2019-2021.

2022 feels more like an outlier, atm, because he scored big in the Ardennes.

Agree that he is either boom or bust, as he is needed of a big win/score somewhere.

Higuita: Has had big scores, twice, and in both those seasons he was very consistent throughout the year scoring points in many different races. His ceiling I would say is higher, as he can score points in both one-day races and stage-races.

I see him as you see Girmay here, that 2019 and 2022 are more representative of his true talent level.

You can probably figure out who I picked

 

[skidmark]

Maybe a mistake but @Gotland has Andrea Piccolo twice named in the spreadsheet.

@skidmark

Good catch, one of those will be deleted, thanks for pointing it out.

 

[slow_climber]

My team ended up being built around riders who have joined new teams this year. With the idea being they will either try harder or be happier this year than last. So my big buys are Arnaud Demare and Tao Geoghegan Hart, with big hopes for Caleb Ewan, Fabio Jakobsen and Mauro Schmid.

Unfortunately, I have now realized that Rob Stannard is banned rather than moving to a new team, which is a bit embarrassing.

Anyway picks listed by popularity with comments

QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander - common pick​	Pop = 78​
RYAN Archie - common pick​	56​
TURNER Ben - common pick​	54​
AUGUST Andrew - common pick​	53​
CAPIOT Amaury - common pick​	50​
HAYTER Ethan - breakthrough year, surely (?)​	45​
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley - don’t want to miss out if he does return to form​	43​
LAMPERTI Luke - Quickstep sprinter and cheap, what's not to like​	39​
LAURANCE Axel - picked him last year but that was year too early​	31​
NYS Thibau - top talent​	28​
STEWART Jake - maybe a lead out rider, but hoping still good for a couple of big results​	24​
WRIGHT Fred - surely going to breakthrough with some wins this year, surely (see Hayter)?​	22​
MAGNIER Paul - cheap, young talent​	21​
VANDENABEELE Henri - injured last year?​	21​
ONLEY Oscar - couldn't just pick Poole and then find Onley was better​	17​
JAKOBSEN Fabio - still super fast and with new team going to score more points​	16​
POOLE Max - DSM don’t have too many GC riders, so hopefully lots of chances for Poole​	16​
BEVIN Patrick - what happened to him last year?​	16​
DEMARE Arnaud - I like Demare and he is going to milk the lower level French races. Pity he won a couple of races at the end of last year that added a few hundred points to last years score​	15​
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose – cheap, back from injury​	15​
STORM Theodor - one of the few zero pointers I know​	15​
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao - super talent, can’t believe Ineos let him go​	14​
LEKNESSUND Andreas - will be inspired racing for Norwegian team​	10​
EWAN Caleb - surely can’t have another bad year. One the fastest on his day​	9​
LOUVEL Matis - he'll need to win points for Arkea, so they will work him!​	6​
POLLEFLIET Gianluca - low cost, great name, hopefully will do lots of races​	6​
WELSFORD Sam - fast and now with Bora train​	4​
ROMO OLIVER Javier - raced with Astana, now with Movistar, surely that is a better place to be​	4​
SCHMID Mauro - poorly used by QS last year. Hopefully loads more potential with Jayco​	3​
STANNARD Robert - didn’t realise he was banned! Had a big drop in points last year compared to 2022, so thought he was good for a bounce back year. Maybe he's not really a cheat and will be cleared to race.​	2​
TOLHOEK Antwan - whatever happened to him. Surely good for 15 points in his new team​	2​
MAIRE Adrien - cheap point filler and races for the TDT team, so fun to follow​	1​
NIEUWENHUIS Joris - not knowledgeable enough to know many 0 pointers. But he's doing well in cyclocross, so maybe will dabble on the road.​	1​

 

[RedheadDane]

NIEUWENHUIS Joris - not knowledgeable enough to know many 0 pointers. But he's doing well in cyclocross, so maybe will dabble on the road.

He specifically switched to Baloise Trek Lions to focus on CX.

 

[slow_climber]

He specifically switched to Baloise Trek Lions to focus on CX.

He might get bored later in the year. He only needs to get one point.

 

[armchairclimber]

He needs to score x2 point to be great pick, whick is not attainable, even x1.5 to be good pick seems questionable. You could pick Ayuso or Sheffield+Hayter for his price. He is just too expensive for a rider who will be domestic in some biggest races

Well I asked. I'll have to hope that I get lucky.

 

[Salvarani]

A deep-dive into picks on my own team, that will become the most important ones for myself this year.

Magnus Sheffield, 573 points, 22 picks
Picked by roughly 1/5 of the managers he can become a game-changer, if he has a breakout type of season. Tarling, when interviewed, said he reckons Sheffield could win a classic this season and as Sheffield can also score points in stage-races he has great potential for this game.

I thought he would be a lot more exciting to pick and root for this year, than the one whose name shall not be spoken but costed just about the same. Some has managed to fit him in as well by the looks of it.

Joshua Tarling, 530 points, 15 picks
He seems like a special talent and as he was so good at the end of the season... he might just be even better this year. Who will be able to stop him?

Sergio Higuita, 451 points, 20 picks
He was in a tricky spot with other riders like Carapaz, Hayters, Girmay, Cosnefroy... so I feel like he might have gotten the short end of the stick for some. However, I think he has high ceiling and that can also sprint from a reduced group is handy. I had luck with him in 2022, so I will give him a chance again.

Max Poole, 382 points, 16 picks
I think he has great potential but was probably too expensive for teams who went with Ayuso, C Rod, he-who-shall-not-be-named and so on... but since I didnt pick the latter two I had the space.

Antonio Tiberi, 347 points, 15 picks
I thought he would be picked more after his absence in the season and how good he was in the Vuelta, but also good performances in the Italian races after it. He was one of the first names on my team.

Maybe it was a case of not being able to fit him in for many?

Per Hagenes, 308 points, 20 picks
Maybe the price was the deciding factor here for many, but he is also a special talent and those can score big immediately.

Fred Wright, 298 points, 22 picks
I picked him since he has shown very good potential for some of the biggest races and is due a big year now. Little bit of make or break here and he will surely be up for it, I am hoping.

Francesco Busatto, 186 points, 16 picks
I was about to miss out on picking him, after having him on my team when I was working on it, but in the end he made it on. I feel like it could have ended up being a big mistake not having him, so I made a change in the last couple of days. We will see, if he is as good as me and a few others believe.

Other riders that is good, if they do well:
Madis Mihkels, 176 points, 16 picks
Gianluca Pollefliet, 47 points, 6 picks
Alvaro Hodeg, 42 points, 15 picks
Gijs Leemreize, 35 points, 19 picks
Kevin Colleoni, 25 points, 14 picks
Matthew Walls, 18 points, 22 picks
Riley Pickrell, 16 points, 5 picks
Henri Vandenabeele, 5 points, 22 picks

 

[postmanhat]

THOMAS Benjamin (128) - the one rider for whom I almost broke my non-trackie rule. Got excited when he said he was going to do 40 race days pre-games, but then in an interview a couple of days ago it transpired that it would be almost all WT stage races. Yeah, no.

Damm. Was iffy about Thomas, but included him as I can't resist a rider with a great potential upside in the French calendar. Maybe he can still score well in the Autumn races.