There has been a lot of talk about "boring" picks this year. I was one of those who felt that way, and honestly I still do - to some extend at least. This year's edition seems like one where you can put together a great time in an hour scrolling through CQ ranking, finding the obvious picks like Uijtdebroeks, Van Baarle, Vermeersch, Hart, Kron, Hayter etc. very easily. Even the big talents are very obvious: Torres, Seixas, Nordhagen, Philipsen etc. However, what really was the "issue" was the Vingegaard and Van Aert were so obvious. Usually when you point of the great "comeback'ers", they have scored much less, so you would still need to make some big decision on how to spend your budget. Now in this edition that's not the case. Combine those categories and you have a very strong team ready to go in very little time and by doing very little research. This isn't to ruin the fun - it's reveal day, baby! - but just to introduce how I came up with my team. In the end I went with an approach that I think is very competitive - but I also wanted to add a few slighly - presumably - less popular riders.
My first draft was exactly this very easy to make team with all of the obvious choices. I couldn't believe how little team I had to spend making it, and it made me a bit unenthusiastic because I thought everyone else would come to the same conclusions that I did in very little time. Therefore I decided to go in a completely different direction and make a team only consisting of exciting prospects. I was very thrilled about that time, but understood that it was suboptimal and probably wouldn't stand much of a chance. However, reading the pre-reveal peaks I for some reason got the feeling that perhaps not too many had indeed picked the Vingegaard and Van Aert combination after all, so I decided to revisit my first team, make a few chances and go with that. Now it turns out I wasn't completely wrong; only 33 - roughly a third - has picked Vingegaard, which, as a Vingegaard believer, I'm very happy about. Simply put, I think the Vingegaard and Van Aert combination is far and away the best thing you can do in this year's edition.
In the end I did want a few picks that I figured wouldn't be too popular so that also meant that I had to cut some of the most obvious ones. I'll comment on those as well.
One more thing I noticed in this year's edition was the complete lack of good riders in the 200-400 points range. Because of this I strongly considered going with Almeida alongside Vingegaard and Van Aert, and actually I think that would have been the best thing to do. However, there were a few riders I really like and that I wanted on my team (my three most expensive riders besides Vingegaard and Van Aert), so I went for that solution instead.
Let's break down my team.
VINGEGAARD HANSEN Jonas: 1760
VAN AERT Wout: 1259
With the, in my opinion, lack of good middle-priced riders this year, I think that the best strategy is to put a lot of your budget into high priced riders, and I think this is the best constellation of expensive riders this year, as I've already mentioned. I don't think there's too much to add here.
PENHOËT Paul: 415
Penhoët was one of the latter additions to my team and deserves an elaborate comment, I think. Of course he's a bit expensive, but he has all the qualities needed to rank up a lot of points on the French circuit, and he has also shown that he has the speed to compete with - if not the fastest - then the second tier sprinters. He was also out for a large part of the season this year, so there's definitely room for improvement. Obviously at his price, he's one of my big gambles this year, so let's see if it pays off. By my estimation he would need to score around 700 points to be worth it. I'm a bit surprised to see him picked by 14 other managers, as I thought he would be less populoar.
MORGADO Antonio Tomas: 411
MAGNIER Paul: 405
HAGENES Per Strand: 375
Next up are three very well-known big talents in the same price bracket. Everyone knows that Morgado is a huge talent, and he did show that in glimpses last season. His 5th place in Flanders was both surprising and intriguing and bodes for a potential big breakthrough this year.
Magnier is another huge talent. He reminds me a bit of De Lie, and I have very big expectations for him this year. He should get plenty of opportunities and he has shown that he's already ready to mix it up with the big boys on the big scene.
I was a bit torn on Hagenes, but his talent is undeniable. The main question is where he stands in the Visma hierarchy, but he did get some freedom already in 2024, so even if he's primarily a domestique in the big races, he should get some leadership opportunities in various other races throughout the season - and a breakthrough in the spring classics can't be ruled out either.
As for Penhoët, these guys have to score somewhere between 650 and 700 for them to be considered good picks. Alongside Penhoët they're definitely the most important riders on my team and will likely decide my fate on this year's edition.
NERURKAR Lukas: 328
Next to Penhoët, this is my biggest gamble this year. I really liked his progression in 2024. With their rather flat hierarchy and aggressive riding, EF should give him plenty of opportunities to ride his own chance this season. He has a - for me at least - surprisingly good kick, which bodes well from a points scoring perspective. Of course I'm not too happy about the rather easy points he scored in Japan towards the end of the season, as those points likely will be harder to come by this year, but on the other hand, he might do some similar races this season. He should score around 600 points for me to consider him a good pick, which might be hard, but I'm eager to follow him this season - also because he's only picked by 4 other teams.
TEUTENBERG Tim Torn: 253
Teutenberg was one of the first riders on my team. He was very, very good at the start of the season, and even if he didn't produce any major results later in the season, he did have some solid performances towards the end of the season. Obviously he won't become Trek's main sprinter, but that's probably a good thing as he can score in the smaller races instead. I'm very curious to follow his progress this season.
HAYTER Ethan: 263
My first slighly "boring" pick if you don't count Vingegaard and Van Aert in that category. For a long time I didn't have Hayter in my team, because there's just no explanation for him doing so poorly - and no sign of him returning to his 2021/2022 level. Except, perhaps there is. He did break his collarbone twice in 2023, and in 2024 he was focusing on the track - at least that's somewhat of an explanation. Now, can the change of teams do him any good? If QuickStep can teach him how to position himself in the peloton, us "Hayters" might be in for a good season - and if anyone can teach him that, it's QuickStep. He certainly has all the tools to be able to score very well.
LAFAY Victor: 182
UIJTDEBROEKS Cian: 176
Two "bounce back'ers" that feature quite a few teams. Lafay was a late addition to my team. Initially I ruled him out because in his six seasons as a pro he has only had one season that would make him a good pick if he replicated that this year. That season, however, was last season, and he came back very strong after his injury this year. His move to Decathlon can't be a bad thing either. He's very inconsistent but he should be able to score 450 which is when I would consider him a fine pick.
I don't want to write too much about Uijtdebroeks. We all know he's a huge talent, and if he's healthy again he should easily score 450 points needed.
NORDHAGEN Jørgen: 165
STAUNE-MITTET Johannes: 150
Two young Norwegian GC-hopes next. Nordhagen is a huge talent, but will he get enough opportunities to produce points? I honestly don't expect him to go bananas and turn out to be a must-pick, but I suspect that he'll get some opportunities in smaller races, so let's see how it turns out.
Staune-Mittet isn't as big of a talent as Nordhagen, but I predict that he'll score more than his fellow Norwegian anyway. He should get plenty of leadership opportunities at Decathlon and should quite easily turn out to be a decent pick. I'm looking for 400-450 points for each.
BRENNAN Matthew: 146
Brennan was one of - if not the - latest addition to my team. At his price, I should expect 400 points in return, which might actually be tough to achieve, but I think he has a great potential - I'm just not too sure if it'll materialize already next season. Seeing that he's picked 33 times in total is quite surprising to me - but a good thing as I had some doubts about him.
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao: 137
Honestly, I'm not too thrilled about this pick. Hart has a huge potential - his level in 2023 was insanely high - but I'm worried that he'll never reach this level again. Obviously, at his price, less will do as well. He did have a decent level in Romandie in 2024, but it concerns me that he never performed on this level again for the remainder of 2024. However, he might have needed a season to get back to a decent level of fitness, and as the potential is there, 400 points, as I would be looking for, isn't impossible at all.
DE SCHUYTENEER Steffen: 125
TORRES ARIAS Pablo: 122
BEHRENS Niklas: 115
Now on to three more talents. I really like my De Schuyteneer pick. He seems like a pretty big prospect, and he delivered some fine results in 2024. Lotto is generally quite good at giving their riders a good schedule and opportunities to perform, so I'm curious to see what he can make of 2025. I didn't think he would get picked by 19 other teams, so I'm a bit disappointed by that, as I hoped that I had discovered a diamond in the making here.
Is Torres the next Del Toro? Possibly, but I'll settle for less as well. He's a big talent, as most should know, and as he's picked by a lot of teams, I won't write more about him.
Behrens is also picked by a lot of managers. 46 to be precise. His performance at U23 Worlds was, well, out of this world. I never would have imagined a rider his size perform so well - let alone win - on such a hard course, but he did and hats off! That shows massive potential and I suspect that he'll get some opportunities for himself already this season, although he could be buried in the team hierarchy in his first pro year. I would be satisfied with around 350 points for each of these guys.
BAGIOLI Andrea: 106
Should I, should I not? Well, apparently I should. I've been a fan - and a believer - of Bagioli for a long time now, but it's a tough task, as he keeps on disappointing just when you thought he finally found some consistency. His top level is insanely high, but at best he finds that twice a year. Please Bagioli. Please be this year that you finally puts it all together.
DEL GROSSO Tibor: 95
VERSTRYNGE Emiel: 44
Two young cx'ers up next, and both big talents whom I expect a lot from in the future. Now, I haven't read anything about their plans for 2025, and they might not focus too much on road cycling, but I still think - with their skills - they'll be able to score well. Del Grosso is on paper the bigger talent and has been touted as such, but Verstrynge seems to have taken a big step forward this cx season, so hopefully he'll be able to translate that into good performances on the road as well. I'm very surprised that only one other manager has picked him. Did I miss something here?
CAVAGNA Rémi: 90
VAN BAARLE Dylan: 35
Not the most inspiring of picks, and honestly, despite their popularity, I don't actually think they are must-picks. Looking at Van Baarle's last three seasons, his score has been inflated by a few major results (320 out of 423 points from two last last year, 450 out of 696 points from two races the year before, and 420 out of 753 points from two races three years ago). I don't expect him to replicate those kind of big results, so my expectations are in the 200-300 points range - and if he does deliver that, he should be a fine pick. Cavagna also just had his worst season by far, but he still scored more than Van Baarle and his ceiling is lower. He has actually very consistently scored roughly 300 points for many seasons, and his 2023 season is a bit of an outlier, which I don't expect him to replicate. 300 points isn't unreasonable to aim for, and if that's the case, he's a decent pick - but a game breaking one I don't think he'll turn out to be.
GRAAT Tijmen: 75
GLOAG Thomas: 46
Now on to two young Visma climbers. Graat I think has gone a bit under the radar, as I haven't heard much talk about him despite him delivering some promising results, and he's picked by just 8 other managers. He seems like a pure climber, which isn't necessarily the best prospect for scoring a bunch of points, and Visma does have quite a few young climbers, so his potential for this year might be limited, but I'm willing to take a chance on him, even if he should return 250-300 points for him to be a decent pick.
Is Gloag the unluckiest rider in the peloton? The competition for that title is fierce, but he has a good claim at it. He made a very strong comeback to the peloton after his severe injuries, and that bodes well for this season. I'm very curious to see how he performs, and I think he could take a big step forward.
KRON Andreas Lorentz: 68
VERMEERSCH Florian: 51
Two now former Lotto riders are up next. Both with horrendous seasons. Kron had a few issues during the season - but he also underperformed when he was healthy - while Vermeersch had most of his season ruined. As both are among the most popular picks, I won't add more here.
BISIAUX Léo: 63
SKERL Daniel: 46
Two young talents next. Bisiaux is a climber who had some pretty promising results last season, and he also does some cx, which can't be a bad thing. I'm very surprised to see him appear on 37 teams, as I again thought I had found someone a little less opular. Skerl is a sprinter also with some decent performances. Just picked by 5 other teams which doesn't make my questions marks regarding him smaller. I'm not too sure what to expect here, and what their role in their teams will be. Can I get 400-450 points in return in total? Is that even enough for the cost of 110 points? I don't know, but let's see.
SEIXAS Paul: 0
PHILIPSEN Albert Withen: 0
As I expected, these two monster talents feature on a lot of teams, so I won't say much about those two.
FINN Lorenzo: 0
ALVAREZ MARTINEZ Hector: 0
I don't tend to fill up my team with zero-pointers, and I very rarely pick riders from development teams. And I kind of also regret picking those two. How much can they really score? Will 100 points return be enough? Is 150 points suffice? I'm not really sure, but I suspect that those cheap riders - whether they cost 0, 10, or 25 points - theoretically would have to score more than most would think for them to be good picks. Nonetheless, I picked those two and here we are - but looking at it now, I'm actually not too happy about it.
Now on to the top 5 most popular riders that I didn't pick.
KÄMNA Lennard: 108
I did consider Kämna, but I actually wrote him off pretty early in the process. He had that horror injury which left him in the hospital for a month and a half and ruined his whole 2024 season. I simply don't think he'll bounce back strong enough this season.
TULETT Ben: 27
I actually considered Tulett a possible pick at 398 points last year, yet I didn't pick him for 27 points this year. Honestly, that's probably a mistake. I was just very disappointed with him last season, and have the feeling that he might never fulfill his potential. However, at 27 points I definitely should have given him some more consideration.
DINHAM Matthew: 0
I simply overlooked him. He would almost definitely have been a better pick than Alvarez or Finn.
SENECHAL Florian: 37
I know he was hit by injuries, which ruined his spring campaign. However, in 2023 he scored just 29 points in the spring anyway. Don't get me wrong, at 37 points he's definitely a worthy consideration and might even turn out to be a very good pick, but I just feel like his potential is quite limited.
WIDAR Jarno: 167
I went back on forth on Widar so many times. Probably the most of any rider. He's a monster talent, but 167 points for a rider on a development team? That sounds like too much for me. Yes, he'll do some races with the pro-team as well, but can he really reliably score 400+ points? I'm not too sure.
Now 5 riders I did consider, but opted away from or couldn't make room for.
ARRIETA LIZARRAGA Igor: 179
With all the monster talents out there, and the surplus of talent at UAE, I feel like Arrieta has gone under the radar. And compared to Del Toro, Christen, Morgado etc., that's probably for a good reason. He's not as big of a talent as those, but I really liked his progression and style of racing in 2024. I think he could be a sneakily good pick, although very unlikely one that would win you the game. Seeing that only 3 managers picked him, I really regret not including him. Yesterday I was even working on making room for him, only to realize that the deadline had passed.
CHRISTEN Fabio: 387
Now this would be a left field pick. And a unique one. Definitely not the most obvious pick, but he impressed me a lot in 2024 and I think he could take another step in 2025. In the end there were too many good picks in the 400 points region for me to pick him, but I'm still curious how it would have turned out.
ARTZ Huub: 90
I really wanted to make room for Artz, whom I consider a very interesting prospect, but you've got to make some cuts, right?
HAJEK Alexander: 241
Not one I was eager to fit in, but rather one I considered to some extend. A huge prospect, but might get buried in the team hierarchy at Bora.
BUSATTO Francesco: 282
Busatto was on my team for a long time, before I had to cut him to make room for others. Perhaps he didn't have that big breakthrough last season that some would have imagined, but I still think he showed fine progression and had some solid performances and results. I think it's not a big loss to leave him out, though.
Phew, that was some post. Good luck to everyone!
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