The 2025 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

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Nov 14, 2024
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Vingegaard not adding anything to his original schedule makes me a bit angry.... the "easy" stage race points were meant to be his bread and butter, as he won't defeat the new cannibal at Le Tour.
I think Vingegaard could still get a 2000 more points in Dauphine, TdF, Vuelta.
In the end Ayuso seems to be the best big pick though. Regret not choosing him.
 
To be fair it has made the game a lot more interesting with the two super obvious big ticket riders not having the big bounce back season that could have reasonably been expected.
I don't see how it's better for the game when bad luck for the most expensive popular rider completely tanks him as a pick, because it means that the 35% of teams who have him are basically out of the running now through no fault of their own. IMO the season would have been at its most interesting if both Vingegaard and Van Aert had done as/slightly worse than expected, leaving them as solid picks but not complete musthaves, because that's the only scenario where the super obvious big ticket riders don't almost single-handedly dictate the game trajectory. And that just isn't what's happening.

Although tbf I might also be a little salty because I'm 26 points away from being both the best Vingegaard-Van Aert team and the best Vingegaard team in general, and therefore might have had a shot at victory had they been collectively on track.
 
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Although tbf I might also be a little salty because I'm 26 points away from being both the best Vingegaard-Van Aert team and the best Vingegaard team in general, and therefore might have had a shot at victory had they been collectively on track.
Yeah, to make it still a season, that also Vingegaard owners can enjoy here, we should establish an extra competition here for everyone, who bet on the wrong horse this year.

This is right now the ranking of Vingegaard owners:

 
I don't see how it's better for the game when bad luck for the most expensive popular rider completely tanks him as a pick, because it means that the 35% of teams who have him are basically out of the running now through no fault of their own. IMO the season would have been at its most interesting if both Vingegaard and Van Aert had done as/slightly worse than expected, leaving them as solid picks but not complete musthaves, because that's the only scenario where the super obvious big ticket riders don't almost single-handedly dictate the game trajectory. And that just isn't what's happening.

Although tbf I might also be a little salty because I'm 26 points away from being both the best Vingegaard-Van Aert team and the best Vingegaard team in general, and therefore might have had a shot at victory had they been collectively on track.
I had pinned my hopes on Van Aert winning a monument or a couple of other big classics and whilst the RVV/PR pair of 4ths was a solid points haul in relation to his form and the Amstel/BP a nice bonus it needs a good Giro for him to get back on track.

For Jonas it’s not too late for him if he can podium Tour and Vuelta along with 3/4 stage wins though that will be difficult if Pogacar does both as the stage wins will be harder to achieve.
 
Well, I certainly wasn't expecting to get more points from my grand total of - *checks notes* - 3 riders in the Alps and Asturias (2 in one, 1 in the other), than my 7 riders starting FW, one of whom was an outsider to a good result...

111th Liège - Bastogne - Liège

Kasper Asgreen
Magnus Cort Nielsen
Jonas Gregaard Wilsly
Alexander Kamp Egested
Mathias Sunekær Norsgaard (wasn't expecting that...)
Mattias Skjelmose Jensen (apparently he has... "swollen like a sponge" after his crash, so... that's not good...)
Frederik Michal Anker Wandahl

Hopefully, I'll have more than 2 riders finishing...
 
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Getting an error when trying to open the spreadsheet.
The preview doesn't seem to work in dropbox but the download works perfectly fine on my laptop and my phone. It's hard for me to figure out where the issue is when I can't replicate it but I'll dig deeper if the issue persists with the next update. The current updated daily rankings can be found at https://www.savius.at/CQGame/cqgame.php?page=Ranking in the mean time.
 
I don't see how it's better for the game when bad luck for the most expensive popular rider completely tanks him as a pick, because it means that the 35% of teams who have him are basically out of the running now through no fault of their own. IMO the season would have been at its most interesting if both Vingegaard and Van Aert had done as/slightly worse than expected, leaving them as solid picks but not complete musthaves, because that's the only scenario where the super obvious big ticket riders don't almost single-handedly dictate the game trajectory. And that just isn't what's happening.

Although tbf I might also be a little salty because I'm 26 points away from being both the best Vingegaard-Van Aert team and the best Vingegaard team in general, and therefore might have had a shot at victory had they been collectively on track.
I am not sure I would agree that the teams that may be out of the game because of Vingegaard is out through no fault of their own. It is of course bad luck that he is having the season he has so far. But on the other hand, one is putting a lot of eggs in one basket by choosing such an expensive rider., and this is a deliberate decision. Riders do get inured or have bad seasons from time to time, and it is a decision to make whether to risk so much on one rider, or rather spread the risk a bit more. I was also tempted by Jonas, but decided to go in another direction out of fear that my season could be lost if he would not perform (not that my other choices are doing that great anyway…).
 
I am not sure I would agree that the teams that may be out of the game because of Vingegaard is out through no fault of their own. It is of course bad luck that he is having the season he has so far. But on the other hand, one is putting a lot of eggs in one basket by choosing such an expensive rider., and this is a deliberate decision. Riders do get inured or have bad seasons from time to time, and it is a decision to make whether to risk so much on one rider, or rather spread the risk a bit more. I was also tempted by Jonas, but decided to go in another direction out of fear that my season could be lost if he would not perform (not that my other choices are doing that great anyway…).
I was going to point out why this is faulty logic, but then I remembered that better players than me already did so better than I would do at the start of the season.

To add to the below in light of the current situation. Let's say that you did what is the most successful thing so far instead by going Ayuso and Ganna for a similar total cost. Not only are you doubling the risk of an expensive pick getting screwed by injury, you are also picking a combination that has a much lower floor than Vingegaard if you ignore crashes. So the risk of going for Vingegaard had like a third of the chance of going wrong than going for Ayuso+Ganna did. If you're having bad luck when teams that took on much more risk than you aren't (because let's face it, not a single other semi-popular 500+ rider has had much bad luck so far), that is entirely no fault of your own.
But the thing is; for Vingegaard to be inferior to Almeida/Gregoire you need to hit bullseye with your predictions for two riders instead of just one (and that one rider is much a much safer bet to boot), and you need two guys instead of one to have a relatively issue-free season. As I touched on when discussing Nys in this post, actually breaking even is not a total gimme for your non-Vingegaard riders, especially Gregoire in my view.

This is very true and something I forgot to add in my post about Vingegaard being "under picked".

When some say that they want to "spread out the risk" or they they don't want to rely too much on one rider, I think it's a misunderstanding of the game.

For simplicity sake let's say that Vingegaard cost 1800 points, and you've got the option between choosing Vingegaard and two zero pointers or choosing three 600 pointers. Let's also assume they all double their score 80% of the time, and the remaining 20% of the time they score 0 points because of crashing. What would you choose? The EV is the same, so do you spread your risk or put all your eggs in the Vingegaard basket?

The answer in a game like this is that it's better to not spread your risk, but to go the Vingegaard route. The reason is that if you choose the Vingegaard setup, only 20% of the time are you out of the competition (it doesn't matter if your zero pointers crash because, well, they score zero points anyway). If you choose the other setup, the three 600 pointers, then you're out of the competition any time just one of your three riders crash and score zero points. That's 48.8% of the time (1-0.8x0.8x0.8).

Of course you don't get hit as hard when one of your riders crash and score zero points as the Vingegaard team does when he scores zero points, but the difference between finish 20th and 90th in a game like this is neglectable, so it doesn't really matter anyway. It should be noted, though, that this logic only is completely true in a winner takes all game, and the more you value secondary placings, the less true it is.

Obviously this is extremely simplified, but I think it examplifies the logic anyway.
 
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Spending +20% of ones budget, on one rider, will always be viewed as a gamble to me. A risky strategy.

Of course, you need your own investments to earn you points no matter what strategy. We make our own estimates and projections going into the season... but then racing and real life hits. That will always be hard to predict the outcome of.

Taking less risk, but achieving same or even better results will always be a better strategy in the long run for me though.
 
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The preview doesn't seem to work in dropbox but the download works perfectly fine on my laptop and my phone. It's hard for me to figure out where the issue is when I can't replicate it but I'll dig deeper if the issue persists with the next update. The current updated daily rankings can be found at https://www.savius.at/CQGame/cqgame.php?page=Ranking in the mean time.
For me (with excel 2016), the error seems to occur with the pivot table in the Popularity Table sheet. I get the option to Repair the file which basically removes the pivot table and then it opens ok. This might depend on one's individual excel security settings.
 
Spending +20% of ones budget, on one rider, will always be viewed as a gamble to me. A risky strategy.
So instead you prefer spending 20+% of the budget on a duo or trio that has double or triple the chance of ruining your chances by getting their season ruined compared to the one expensive pick?

Of course, if you value a 20th place over a 50th place, this kind of thinking makes sense. But if those are all the same to you and you're trying to win, which is my goal, you look purely at value and you don't consider things like what will happens if someone is out injured for a long time (because this is impossible to predict). And even though a lot of times we assume equal value for sets of riders for discussion's sake, this is very rarely the case in practice. There's usually some combination you'd favour more in terms of pure value, and for me that was Vingegaard by a long shot this year.

I'd also argue that he's not a certainty for complete bust yet. The teams that has him can still do really well. The non-Vingegaard teams don't look like runaways.

And I think this season is still very open. Even though my own team has been a complete meme so far, with riders losing out on points in all thinkable and unthinkable manners and many of my picks hardly racing at all for whatever unknown reasons, it still feels a bit like my guys have the potential to salvage something from this season if only the meme-worthy bad luck/random issues would ease up a bit.
 
So instead you prefer spending 20+% of the budget on a duo or trio that has double or triple the chance of ruining your chances by getting their season ruined compared to the one expensive pick?

Of course, if you value a 20th place over a 50th place, this kind of thinking makes sense. But if those are all the same to you and you're trying to win, which is my goal, you look purely at value and you don't consider things like what will happens if someone is out injured for a long time (because this is impossible to predict). And even though a lot of times we assume equal value for sets of riders for discussion's sake, this is very rarely the case in practice. There's usually some combination you'd favour more in terms of pure value, and for me that was Vingegaard by a long shot this year.

I'd also argue that he's not a certainty for complete bust yet. The teams that has him can still do really well. The non-Vingegaard teams don't look like runaways.

And I think this season is still very open. Even though my own team has been a complete meme so far, with riders losing out on points in all thinkable and unthinkable manners and many of my picks hardly racing at all for whatever unknown reasons, it still feels a bit like my guys have the potential to salvage something from this season if only the meme-worthy bad luck/random issues would ease up a bit.
I didnt say it is better to spend 20% on just two other riders instead... that doesnt make much of a difference.

You can allocate and distribute those points across your team, rather than just spending it on just two other riders though. Then it of course matters a lot on who you pick to invest in. That takes a lot of thinking and research imo. It is a lot of decisions. Then the road just has to decide if you were right or wrong. We know cycling is also a risky sport and a lot happens.

And I dont look at value only. I look at growth and momentum as well. Try to focus and think on the fundamentals. I also definitely look to get some riders that are being overlooked by the majority, that could be good picks. Trust my own perspective, estimations and projections. Because I am tryna beat everyone else! I think you got it misconstrued when saying "you value a 20th place over a 50th place".
 
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And... I'm back in my "usual position".
Skjelmose winning Amstel didn't really help much when he then crashed out of FW, and only got basic points in LBL... But, hey! At least most of my riders finished LBL. The only exceptions being Kamp and Norsgaard, and I don't think anyone was expecting Norsgaard to finish, he wasn't even expecting to finish, in fact; until Friday evening, he wasn't even expecting to start.

Anyway, let's see if my next batch of riders can do... something...

Turkiye (nothing so far...)

Bevort
Dalby
Kron (got a little worried when I saw Lotto hadn't selected him, then I remembered he doesn't actually ride for Lotto anymore...)
Wallin
(Unfortunately, it doesn't look like I have anyone who can repeat Lund's success from last year...)

Romandie

Asgreen
Changizi
Foldager
Gregaard
Hellemose
Norsgaard
Pedersen (still on the preliminary startlist for Frankfurt as well on PCS, but that seems like a busy schedule...)
Price
(Maybe Foldager can do more than just finish? I dunno...)

Frankfurt

Cort
Honoré
Kamp
Kragh
Lund
Valgren
Withen
(Lund is probably my best bet. Maybe Cort can do something. Kragh is a former winner, but it's his first race of the season, and I don't think he'll do an Evenepoel...)

Famenne (very big "maybe" of course)

Stokbro
(He'd need to finish in the top... what? to score any points....)
 
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Ciccone, Bagioli and Tulett scores some points in LBL. Minor finishing points for others.

But also Pescador gets 6th in Asturia, which was nice to see.

Decent week, I think.
Think Del Grosso's win today has temporarily moved me back to the top, but your team looks very strong for the week ahead. I never would have picked Almedia, so can't really regret not doing so, but he's beginning to look like one of the game changers this year?

Romandie

Brennan - Main interest in terms of following his development, if nothing else.

The rest I'll be more than happy with a couple of 20 placings.

Plapp
Buchmann
P.Torres
Kamna
Staune-Mittet
Cavagna
 
Not too pleased with TGH, Gloag and Uijtdebroeks all disappearing from the Romandie startlist, I really have a lot of riders with health issues/injuries this year and considering the history of these three in particular maybe I need to be both less eager and less scared of the likely pickrate with this kind of obvious cheap pick going forward.

On the plus side, Del Grosso won yesterday, Kron showed his first signs of life all season and today is another chance for both. I also stil have a non-terrible lineup for Romandie (Torres, Brennan, Nordhagen, Kämna, Cavagna, Bisiaux) and a fantastic provisional lineup for Frankfurt (Nys, Kragh, Bagioli, Magnier, Morgado, Engelhardt, Vader, Sénéchal, Gesbert), so closing the 100-point gap separating me from the top-10 is quite possible this week.