Ganna out in the first stage is in my opinion not the worst thing for his owners in this game here, as he would have wasted a lot of race days only to gain perhaps a few points in the one flat TT...
- Sep 20, 2017
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Van Aert and Nys both look like a waste of 21 race days right now, getting sick right before the Tour and (in Nys' case) crashing on day 1 is just such horrible timing. Not having a lot of luck fitnesswise with my expensive picks this year.
On the plus side, Vingegaard has started scoring early and with Evenepoel having lost time on Saturday it is also quite possible he starts accumulating yellow jersey points after the TT.
And that's my entire Tour team covered. With nobody in Sibiu or Qinghai either, these are sparse weeks for me.
On the plus side, Vingegaard has started scoring early and with Evenepoel having lost time on Saturday it is also quite possible he starts accumulating yellow jersey points after the TT.
And that's my entire Tour team covered. With nobody in Sibiu or Qinghai either, these are sparse weeks for me.
- Dec 28, 2010
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- 2,850
- 19,180
For me it's the same with Plapp (who the hell thought two GTs in a row was a good idea?), Louvel and Penhoët (probably). At least WVA and Nys has more potential to get some stage points.
I don't believe in many yellow points after the TT, most of those will probably go to Pog, even if Vingegaard initially beats him in the TT. But getting a stage podium in the first week is still good for us Vingegaard owners.
Disappointing to see Kajamini not making the first group in Qinghai.
Again van Aert as a pick in this game looks nearly as bad as in the beginning of the season.
Amstel was the moment during the season, where I though he could still end as an ok pick. With his role as a lead-out rider for Kooij and his bad preparation for the giro, his points there still had been ok. But now he skipped the Belgian RR and he doesn´t look good for larger amounts of points at the tour at all.
Even if Vingegaard will perform quite good in the next couple of weeks, van Aerts non-scoring will hurt anybody, who has the expensive Visma duo and will be one of the decisive factors, that no one will be able to close the gap to @Salvarani in my opinion.
Edit: @Squire is perhaps the only one, who could endanger Salvarani, as this team is the only good places Vingegaard team without van Aert.
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- Dec 28, 2010
- 3,979
- 2,850
- 19,180
But Salvarani also has my Van Aert replacement, so that won't really close the gap, just maintain it. I have to put a lot of hope in Vingegaard, cuz the rest of the riders that Salvarani don't have aren't looking too hot at the moment. Almeida is carrying my team hard.
Interestingly, your team is the one that has the most overlapping riders for me... 21 riders.
Hey everyone! I'm back in internet service and will be taking over the written updates once again - next one will be coming in the next 24 hours. Huge thanks to EITB for filling in while I was away. Can't wait to catch up on this game again!
Armchair Cyclist
Moderator
- Mar 22, 2010
- 14,529
- 10,378
- 28,180
Update #24: No Harm, No Win
This week is always an interesting one in the CQ game, with the TdF sucking up all the oxygen, and TdF stage points only taking up two days of the week. The relatively scarce undercard races in July skew a bit more talent towards Austria, so this year in the case of the well-placed 2.1 Sibiu Cycling Tour, there were a good amount of points on offer for those with a rider that managed to make the lineup.
This Week's Top Scorers
It's a low scoring week, but the 17 teams who picked Matthew Riccitello were certainly grateful for his well-earned, but relatively easy 152 points in Romania. Mountain Newts got a boost on top of that from 53 points from solo pick Harm Vanhoucke, as well as 15 points from Andrii Ponomar (2 teams). EvansIsTheBest ends up in 2nd as one of the teams with both Riccitello and Jonas Vingegaard (35 points, 33 teams), as well as 15 from Jakob Soderqvist (3 teams). 3rd place is decided by a weird CQ quirk, where it seems that last week they must have missed a top 20 scorer from the Danish national championships, as several Danish riders have negative points for this week (the biggest clue is Kamp who scores -5 and shows up at 21st - the first place scoring 0 instead of 5 points - in the seemingly revised standings). But anyway, code is law in the CQ game, ie the spreadsheet is king, so firefly3323 gets sole possession of 3rd place on the week with Ricci/Ving points and no negative points, unlike the teams just below. I'm happy to consider a green jersey points adjustment based on this week if it's close enough at the end of the year, but for now that's the way the cookie crumbles.
This Week's High Movers
As one might guess, not a ton of movement, but ingsve, Fivezzz and Sneekes all move up 6 places as Riccitello teams (with the first two having Ving, and Sneekes having less popular picks like Lukas Kubis and Walter Calzoni).
Green Jersey Competition
Somehow Pantani4ever and Salvarani continue to score points even in this non-normal week, although it's only 8 and 4 points respectively. But their massive lead is not threatened, although Squire gets an awkward 3-way split of points to score 22.7 on the week and move into 4th.
Top 10 Overall
Salvarani continues to thrive, becoming the first team to cross 10,000 points on the year, and extending their team's lead to almost 900 points. Lower down, Squire makes it into the top 10 at the expense of Nyssinator, who had an unfortunate -6 points on the week.
This week, the Tour is in full swing, so the Vinge teams will likely be salivating, while the undercard gets a chance in Austria.
spreadsheet link
This week is always an interesting one in the CQ game, with the TdF sucking up all the oxygen, and TdF stage points only taking up two days of the week. The relatively scarce undercard races in July skew a bit more talent towards Austria, so this year in the case of the well-placed 2.1 Sibiu Cycling Tour, there were a good amount of points on offer for those with a rider that managed to make the lineup.
This Week's Top Scorers
| Rank | Team | Points this week |
| 1 | Mountain_Newts | 219 |
| 2 | EvansIsTheBest | 201 |
| 3 | firefly3323 | 187 |
| 4 | Squire | 186 |
| 4 | Earns1985 | 186 |
| 4 | Fivezzz | 186 |
It's a low scoring week, but the 17 teams who picked Matthew Riccitello were certainly grateful for his well-earned, but relatively easy 152 points in Romania. Mountain Newts got a boost on top of that from 53 points from solo pick Harm Vanhoucke, as well as 15 points from Andrii Ponomar (2 teams). EvansIsTheBest ends up in 2nd as one of the teams with both Riccitello and Jonas Vingegaard (35 points, 33 teams), as well as 15 from Jakob Soderqvist (3 teams). 3rd place is decided by a weird CQ quirk, where it seems that last week they must have missed a top 20 scorer from the Danish national championships, as several Danish riders have negative points for this week (the biggest clue is Kamp who scores -5 and shows up at 21st - the first place scoring 0 instead of 5 points - in the seemingly revised standings). But anyway, code is law in the CQ game, ie the spreadsheet is king, so firefly3323 gets sole possession of 3rd place on the week with Ricci/Ving points and no negative points, unlike the teams just below. I'm happy to consider a green jersey points adjustment based on this week if it's close enough at the end of the year, but for now that's the way the cookie crumbles.
This Week's High Movers
| Rank | Team | Up/down |
| 1 | ingsve | (+6) |
| 1 | Fivezzz | (+6) |
| 1 | Sneekes | (+6) |
| 4 | hayneplane | (+4) |
| 4 | Amethyst | (+4) |
| 4 | Leadbelly | (+4) |
| 4 | Pantani4ever | (+4) |
As one might guess, not a ton of movement, but ingsve, Fivezzz and Sneekes all move up 6 places as Riccitello teams (with the first two having Ving, and Sneekes having less popular picks like Lukas Kubis and Walter Calzoni).
Green Jersey Competition
| Rank | Team | Total |
| 1 | Pantani4ever | 316 |
| 2 | Salvarani | 289 |
| 3 | Rufs | 219 |
| 4 | Squire | 183.7 |
| 5 | Qazaqstan | 169 |
Somehow Pantani4ever and Salvarani continue to score points even in this non-normal week, although it's only 8 and 4 points respectively. But their massive lead is not threatened, although Squire gets an awkward 3-way split of points to score 22.7 on the week and move into 4th.
Top 10 Overall
| Rank | Up/down | Team | Points |
| 1 | (-) | Salvarani | 10013 |
| 2 | (-) | Qazaqstan | 9130 |
| 3 | (-) | postmanhat | 8942 |
| 4 | (-) | Senderos | 8753 |
| 5 | (-) | slow_climber | 8740 |
| 6 | (+2) | MADRAZO | 8489 |
| 7 | (-1) | triley36 | 8426 |
| 8 | (-2) | abbulf | 8425 |
| 9 | (+3) | Squire | 8378 |
| 10 | (-1) | will10 | 8264 |
Salvarani continues to thrive, becoming the first team to cross 10,000 points on the year, and extending their team's lead to almost 900 points. Lower down, Squire makes it into the top 10 at the expense of Nyssinator, who had an unfortunate -6 points on the week.
This week, the Tour is in full swing, so the Vinge teams will likely be salivating, while the undercard gets a chance in Austria.
spreadsheet link
- Dec 12, 2010
- 1,150
- 924
- 12,680
- Oct 21, 2012
- 3,694
- 3,014
- 19,180
Did you forget to pray to the cycling Gods this month Salvarani? Almeida, Yates and Butriago all effectively out of the GC already. Potentially horrible Tour for you, but it could make the game much more interesting for a lot of teams?
On a much more minor note, after 5 years of scoring between 205- 288 points, Simmons finally makes it past 300. Not sure how profitable he'll be, but have enjoyed following him this year.
And Engelhadrt is showing signs of becoming the rider he promised to be two seasons ago.
- Sep 20, 2017
- 11,728
- 22,069
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Think it's been a pretty bad year for game-relevant crashes and other fitness issues in general. And the way things are going it could well result in nobody doubling their budget.
- Dec 12, 2010
- 1,150
- 924
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Excluding 2020 for obvious reasons, on average, the leading score after the TDF is about 63% winning score at the end of the year. That means you would expect a leading score of 9450 points post TDF to yield a winner at exactly 15000 points at the end of the year. Salvarani is already well past that and there are weeks to go before reaching that milestone.
Even if we run a linear regression on previous editions comparing post TDF leaders with eventual winners to have something a bit more precise, we'd expect a post TDF leader with 10113 points to get a winner that reaches exactly 15000 points at the end of the year (R² is 0.748 so the correlation is fairly strong between post TDF leading score and final winning score as you'd expect). That would require Salvarani to score only 100 points until the end of the TDF. Unlikely.
Unless there's a reason for the post-TDF scoring environment to be particularly low scoring, based on historical data, we should expect the winner (Salvarani most likely) to crawl over that 15000 points mark. I'm not sure that's going to be the case between Vingegaard doing the Vuelta and Sixas getting four easy stage races to pad his total for instance.
Having said that, yes obviously this has been a low scoring edition of the game overall.
- Sep 20, 2017
- 11,728
- 22,069
- 28,180
Salvarani has a lot of important riders who are mostly done with their scoring opportunities and the gap to him is huge, so I would definitely take the under here. Vingegaard doesn't change that as the best teams with him are 1700 points behind which is probably more than Vingegaard will score in what is left of the season.
- Dec 28, 2010
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- 2,850
- 19,180
Who would you say are done with their scoring opportunities? I'll give you Simon Yates, who probably won't do that much after a double GT, apart from maybe a cameo or two in Italian autumn classics. But other than that, I can't see the program of most of his other riders hampering them too much. Even Arensman, who's also doing his 2nd GT at the moment, might well show up in some Tour de Luxembourg-ish race towards the end of the season and do quite well.
Hindley, Ciccone, Almeida and probably Gall still have the Vuelta and potentially Italian classics, especially Ciccone. Vine surely has more to do this season, even as a leader in smaller stage races probably.
Now sure, Vingegaard and Van Aert and Ayuso might have more scoring left to do compared to those mentioned, but the gap is huge and there's no guarantee they will set the world alight everywhere either.
We still kind of agree here, as both of us find it difficult to see how Salvarani gets caught, but I don't think it's an absolute given that the overall scoring for the rest of the season will be so much lower than EITB's formula predicts. Maybe most riders bar Vingegaard won't win a GT or WC or something like that, but I don't think that has happened in all data points from the other seasons either.
There are also still a lot of riders who at the start of the season seemed like good picks who haven't really gotten going yet (if they ever will is another question of course). From my own team I can mention Staune-Mittet, Penhoët, Riccitello, Blobloblo, Lafay, Nordhagen, De Schuyteneer, Bax, Bisiaux, Louvel, Gloag, Torres, Kron. Surely not all of them will continue to bomb the entire season when there are more than three months and a lot of smaller races left. Could also add the likes of Kamp, Vader and Sénéchal to that list, but they are more in the category of will probably never get going.
- Sep 20, 2017
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Between Yates, Arensman and Plapp, three of his 400+ riders are doing the Giro-Tour double. That's an unusually high amount and usually does not translate to a lot of race days in the remainder of the season. They will have something left between them, but not overly much.
Almeida has raced a really extensive schedule so far and every day he continues to ride the Tour with a broken rib delays its recovery process. If he also does the Vuelta, as seems probable, then on the one hand I doubt he'll be at his best and on the other hand there's a good chance it will be his last race of the season (especially if he continues to push on in this race). Some of this also applies to Buitrago, given that he is also riding through injury right now.
Gall has never done anything of note in the latter stages of the season. Of his well-performing cheaper picks, Tulett is also doing the Vuelta so he won't have a very productive final few months either. And then updates on Hindley's recovery have been nonexistent, so remains to be seen whether he will be ready for the Vuelta and also whether he can buck the trend of everyone on Bora having a garbage season.
So that's a lot of riders of whom I don't expect very much in the remainder of the year. Yes, there are some counterexamples, but all in all it seems pretty likely that Salvarani will score below the average for a post-Tour leader. And given that both of us still expect him to win, that would also mean the winning score falls short of the statistical projections.
I would also be interested in knowing what the projection becomes if you also exclude 2021, because between all the cancelled races in the early season and a number of races (most notably Roubaix + Frankfurt) being moved to after the Tour I suspect that that was a year that drags up the expected number of points post-Tour.
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- Dec 12, 2010
- 1,150
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- 12,680
So 2021 isn't even the biggest late season overperformance. It's 2022 (by far, thanks Remco) and 2012 which makes sense if anybody remembers the absurd late surges that skidmark and myself went on. We have enough other years that it doesn't really impact the data. For instance, including 2021, the post-TDF leading score is 63.2% of the winning score and excluding it, it's 63.4%.
Another way to look at it is computing the raw difference between the post TDF score and final score. We have only three instances where that number is below 4600 points, two where that number is below 4200 points and zero where that number is below 3500 points. So Salvarani getting to 10400 points by the end of the Tour would most likely guarantee we'll see a 15k+ team.
Your point about Salvarani's team is well taken and I would certainly take the under when it comes to the projection for the rest of the year. I suspect though that the projection will be far enough above 15k that even by underperforming it, Salvarani should clear the 15k mark.
- May 5, 2010
- 49,973
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Update #25: 18-Valve wins the week with Del Toro in Austria
A somewhat, ahem, pithy update this week as I'm on the road, with the first week of the Tour in the books and the 2.1 Tour of Austria GC making up the bulk of the points.
This Week's Top Scorers
The week;s top score is taken by 18-Valve.(pithy), who gets 462 from a combo of Isaac Del Toro (176 points, 8 teams), Jonathan Milan (130, 2), Jonas Vingegaard (86, 33) and Lennard Kamna (45, 63). SafeBet gets second with the same combo but Wout Van Aert (50, 60) replacing Milan, and Samu Cuenca rounds out the podium largely thanks to unique pick Henok Mulubrhan (211 points) scoring big in China.
This Week's High Movers
18-Valve runs away with this ranking, being the only team to move up double digits in the standings. R O Shipman manages 2nd in this ranking ahead of a 5-way tie for 3rd.
Green Jersey Standings
Nobody in the top 5 scoring here, so the standings don't change at the top.
Top 10 Overall
Not alot of change here, with relatively low scores on the week. SafeBet parlays a solid week into a move up the standings and into the top 10, at the expense of will10 who falls out.
spreadsheet link
A somewhat, ahem, pithy update this week as I'm on the road, with the first week of the Tour in the books and the 2.1 Tour of Austria GC making up the bulk of the points.
This Week's Top Scorers
| Rank | Team | Points this week |
| 1 | 18-Valve. (pithy) | 462 |
| 2 | SafeBet | 402 |
| 3 | Samu Cuenca | 351 |
| 4 | PandaClaws | 343 |
| 5 | Amethyst | 331 |
The week;s top score is taken by 18-Valve.(pithy), who gets 462 from a combo of Isaac Del Toro (176 points, 8 teams), Jonathan Milan (130, 2), Jonas Vingegaard (86, 33) and Lennard Kamna (45, 63). SafeBet gets second with the same combo but Wout Van Aert (50, 60) replacing Milan, and Samu Cuenca rounds out the podium largely thanks to unique pick Henok Mulubrhan (211 points) scoring big in China.
This Week's High Movers
| Rank | Team | Up/down |
| 1 | 18-Valve. (pithy) | (+13) |
| 2 | R_O_Shipman | (+7) |
| 3 | PandaClaws | (+4) |
| 3 | Samu Cuenca | (+4) |
| 3 | SafeBet | (+4) |
| 3 | Jakob747 | (+4) |
| 3 | DJW | (+4) |
18-Valve runs away with this ranking, being the only team to move up double digits in the standings. R O Shipman manages 2nd in this ranking ahead of a 5-way tie for 3rd.
Green Jersey Standings
| Rank | Team | Total |
| 1 | Pantani4ever | 316 |
| 2 | Salvarani | 289 |
| 3 | Rufs | 219 |
| 4 | Squire | 183.7 |
| 5 | Qazaqstan | 169 |
Nobody in the top 5 scoring here, so the standings don't change at the top.
Top 10 Overall
| Rank | Up/down | Team | Points |
| 1 | (-) | Salvarani | 10118 |
| 2 | (-) | Qazaqstan | 9320 |
| 3 | (-) | postmanhat | 9128 |
| 4 | (-) | Senderos | 8908 |
| 5 | (-) | slow_climber | 8755 |
| 6 | (+1) | triley36 | 8742 |
| 7 | (-1) | MADRAZO | 8629 |
| 8 | (+4) | SafeBet | 8623 |
| 9 | (-) | Squire | 8579 |
| 10 | (-2) | abbulf | 8526 |
Not alot of change here, with relatively low scores on the week. SafeBet parlays a solid week into a move up the standings and into the top 10, at the expense of will10 who falls out.
spreadsheet link
- Dec 28, 2010
- 3,979
- 2,850
- 19,180
Damn, no longer the best Vingegaard team, which makes Almeida's DNF a bit more problematic for me. Dunbar's DNF, on the other hand, might almost be a bit of a blessing in disguise if he now gets to do some warm-up race before the Vuelta.
Salvarani keeps finding points from all sorts of sources, even with no Almeida. Yates and Arensman 1-2 on a Tour stage, what is happening.
Salvarani keeps finding points from all sorts of sources, even with no Almeida. Yates and Arensman 1-2 on a Tour stage, what is happening.
- Jan 29, 2020
- 817
- 1,774
- 8,180
I had Schmid, Van Aert, Wright and Simmons all in the breakaway (first two groups of 10 riders) yesterday.
In the end they got 2nd, 5th, 7th and 9th. I suppose it could have been worse but it sure as hell could have been a lot better!
In the end they got 2nd, 5th, 7th and 9th. I suppose it could have been worse but it sure as hell could have been a lot better!
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