The annual 'who wins the Tour de France poll' 2020 edition

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Who wins the Tour de France 2020?

  • Roglic

    Votes: 56 33.1%
  • Bernal

    Votes: 25 14.8%
  • Pinot

    Votes: 22 13.0%
  • Dumoulin

    Votes: 37 21.9%
  • Pogacar

    Votes: 1 0.6%
  • Quintana

    Votes: 13 7.7%
  • Landa

    Votes: 2 1.2%
  • Alaphilippe

    Votes: 1 0.6%
  • Martinez

    Votes: 1 0.6%
  • Other

    Votes: 11 6.5%

  • Total voters
    169
  • Poll closed .
Heart: Valverde
Head: Tour's never been one of his better races. His form is off and he's 40.
Heart: His form is never as bad as he likes to claim.
Head: It's not, but it's still off. You did watch the Dauphine.
Heart: Pinot
Head: He has good form, but has issues with a 3 week race. He's good at finding ways to not win it. Apparently he has a back issue.
Heart: Pogacar
Head: He snuck up on everyone at last year's Vuelta. He'll be watched from now on.
Heart: Roglic
Head: no idea how badly his injuries are. Is what he said reality or is he taking a page out of Contador and Valverde's playbook?
Heart: Landa
Head: He'll find a way to lose the race in week 1.
Heart: ? Bernal?
Head: Who knows what the back issues are.

Conclusion: The favorites are either injured or have major consistency issues or are unproven. What we have is just another care of it's 2020. If I vote for "other" does that include 2020 and not an actual rider? If there is a year for someone no expects at all to win this is the year for it. Everything else is insane this year, so why not the Tour as well.
 
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I am surprised that people put Dumoulin and Roglic at the same level today. Maybe next year, but certainly not now. The lack of competitive racing for 1 year sooner or later will catch up with you.

People are making conclusion with what they have now but a three week race is a different monster.

The only weakness that I have seen in Roglic is that in a couple of times I have seen him bad positioned and could lose vital time if teams see this. Other than that I don't see him fading away the third week.

Few things different in this Tour are:
  • The start of the mountains right away. This avoids the usual shedding of the GT contenders and outsiders in the first week due to crashes and related issues.
  • The abnormal big amount of good riders and outsiders in this Tour. I could count at least 20. That is very difficult to control for any team. Even JV. For example are the willing to give a breakaway 10 minutes that contains Chaves, Higuita, Mollema, etc. If not they have to send riders up the road all the time or control the breaks most of the time.
  • The amount of medium + high mountain stages is abnormal for a Tour. Again, makes it very stressing to control.
I still see Roglic and Bernal as the 2 guys to beat. Did not see enough to change the vote. The rest are below. But we are entering an out of the ordinary Tour de France after the Covid break and with so may good riders entering the race. It could be very entertaining. We could end up with a battle of attrition at the end as well.
 
The question is who wins the Tour. Valverde should not be mentioned once.
Have to agree. I'm a huge Bala fan but I don't think I'd even give him one star as I don't believe there's ANY chance he can win. A top 10 is probably even a stretch. In fact, top 10 is going to be a big accomplishment this year. I imagine places 4-15 is where we'll see a huge discrepancy between the Giro and Tour.
 

I've made up my mind. Pinot will win this bike race going as 4th strongest rider into the final week- behind Roglic, Dumoulin and Bernal but Ineos and Jumbo will be thrown out of the race for 2 covid cases among their mechanics.
If history tells us anything it's that Pinot will be in yellow and 2 of his team will get covid
 
It's hard to make a good prediction with all those crashes and injuries we've had lately, not to mention the matters of double leadership or not in certain teams. Anyway here is my attempt:

  1. Egan Bernal: He still has a very strong team around him, with seven helpers who will sacrifice themselves without thinking of their own ranking. The high mountains in the final eight days suit him. I don't think his back problems are very serious.
  2. Primož Roglič: He looked the strongest in the preparation races, but maybe he peaked too early. He might be the strongest in the first two weeks, but fade in the Alps. The "Killer Wasps" can have a really strong train, but Dumoulin could be a moll, thinking of his own chances.
  3. Nairo Quintana: If he gets through the windy stages and if his knee is okay he might be strong in the high mountains. Those are two big ifs however...
  4. Thibaut Pinot: After last year he will be very motivated to break the curse, and he has a strong team. However he didn't look entirely convincing in the Dauphiné, and he's said to have back problems too...
  5. Emanuel Buchmann: I don't think his crash was too serious, but he hasn't made a big impression either. If he finds last year's form back he could finish high again.
  6. Miguel Ángel López: Astana has enough confidence in him to make him sole leader in his first Tour. He will probably be strong in the Alps, but there will also be stages where he loses time.
  7. Mikel Landa: For the first time the "freed" rider is the leader of his Tour team, but he hasn't made a great impression thus far. If he reaches his best shape in time he could have a great third week.
  8. Daniel Martínez: He was great on those short, steep mountains in the Dauphiné, but we don't know if he's ready to ride a GC over three weeks.
  9. Tadej Pogačar: One day after the Tour he will turn twenty-two, so he's probably too young for a podium.
  10. Richie Porte: If he avoids bad luck he should still be good enough for a decent GC. Even at his best a podium seems to optimistic however.
  11. Tom Dumoulin
  12. Richard Carapaz
  13. Bauke Mollema
  14. Guillaume Martin
  15. Julian Alaphilippe
  16. Pello Bilbao
  17. Pierre Latour
  18. Esteban Chaves
  19. Warren Barguil
  20. Marc Soler
  21. Wout Poels
  22. Adam Yates
  23. George Bennett
  24. Sepp Kuss
  25. Pavel Sivakov
  26. Enric Mas
  27. Romain Bardet
  28. Lennard Kämna
  29. Daniel Martin
  30. Ilnur Zakarin
Joker: Alejandro Valverde
Who is going to control the race with this list?
 
I gave you the answer - Why ask a question if the answer doesn't suit your thoughts.
What? You didn't answer the question. I asked where you were hearing that because I read a quote from him that implied otherwise.

June 12: “I have a dream, and that is to win the Tour de France. I work with that goal in mind. If you ask me if I can win the Tour, I say yes.”

I don't discount that he's had a change of heart or that what you posted couldn't be true but you still haven't answered the question as to where you heard what you posted. Right now I only have the man's words over what an anonymous person says on the internet.
 
What? You didn't answer the question. I asked where you were hearing that because I read a quote from him that implied otherwise.

June 12: “I have a dream, and that is to win the Tour de France. I work with that goal in mind. If you ask me if I can win the Tour, I say yes.”

I don't discount that he's had a change of heart or that what you posted couldn't be true but you still haven't answered the question as to where you heard what you posted. Right now I only have the man's words over what an anonymous person says on the internet.
That's a throwaway line for the media - The fact is this will be Chaves 2nd TDF because the team has struggled to convince him to ride GC at the TDF for GC - He's been slated to ride this TDF since October 19 and is happy to hunt for stages - I even listened to a Podcast tonight with DS Matt White in which he stated the team is hunting for stages - Not everything that happens within teams is released to the media.
 
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That's a throwaway line for the media - The fact is this will be Chaves 2nd TDF because the team has struggled to convince him to ride GC at the TDF for GC - He's been slated to ride this TDF since October 19 and is happy to hunt for stages - I even listened to a Podcast tonight with DS Matt White in which he stated the team is hunting for stages - Not everything that happens within teams is released to the media.
Thanks, you have a source you believe in - that's what I wanted to know. It's often hard to separate opinion from inside info or actual fact around here sometimes.

I know the team has been saying they're going for stages, but that's not the same as Chaves simply having no interest in riding for GC anymore so that's interesting. A teammate of mine rode with him earlier in the year and they talked about it a little so between that and his quote about the Tour I was really surprised by what you were saying.

Edit: Hmm, I know I read something about a source...
 
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I actually forgot that there's only 1 TT, and that it's a 36km one at the very end with a 6km mountain at the end. That is ludicrous in a GT, but also does open it up to a bit more unpredictability if there isn't a long flat TT where the likes of Roglic can gain a few minutes.

If Roglic and Bernal are healthy, they are definitely the favourites - Bernal has looked not so hot at times in the last two races, but also is a tough nut to crack, he holds on and recovers like the best of them (eg Nibali, or Froome in the Vuelta when he's not on Tour form). But Pinot with last year's form would challenge, and Nairo with February's form would also.

But the format does open it up to some wildcards, guys like Carapaz doing what he did in the Giro last year, or even - dare I say - Landa, who I could see taking an opportunistic flier to gain some time and then hanging on enough. Dan Martin or Aru five years ago would be great outside bets on a course like this. Who fits that mold? I guess Bardet, if he rounded into form, or someone like Higuita, if he's recovered from his crash. I do think there's room for a surprise, although it would most likely end up with an exciting run in yellow and ultimately filling out the third step of the podium.

I've only read this page of the thread so pardon me if I'm repeating any of these speculations, but I do think given how weird this year is with covid, how many crashes have raised question marks around the contenders, and how skewed the parcours is could actually give rise to some unpredictability at the Tour! More likely the TJV train becomes the new Sky/USPS train, but one can dream.
 
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I actually forgot that there's only 1 TT, and that it's a 36km one at the very end with a 6km mountain at the end. That is ludicrous in a GT, but also does open it up to a bit more unpredictability if there isn't a long flat TT where the likes of Roglic can gain a few minutes.

If Roglic and Bernal are healthy, they are definitely the favourites - Bernal has looked not so hot at times in the last two races, but also is a tough nut to crack, he holds on and recovers like the best of them (eg Nibali, or Froome in the Vuelta when he's not on Tour form). But Pinot with last year's form would challenge, and Nairo with February's form would also.

But the format does open it up to some wildcards, guys like Carapaz doing what he did in the Giro last year, or even - dare I say - Landa, who I could see taking an opportunistic flier to gain some time and then hanging on enough. Dan Martin or Aru five years ago would be great outside bets on a course like this. Who fits that mold? I guess Bardet, if he rounded into form, or someone like Higuita, if he's recovered from his crash. I do think there's room for a surprise, although it would most likely end up with an exciting run in yellow and ultimately filling out the third step of the podium.

I've only read this page of the thread so pardon me if I'm repeating any of these speculations, but I do think given how weird this year is with covid, how many crashes have raised question marks around the contenders, and how skewed the parcours is could actually give rise to some unpredictability at the Tour! More likely the TJV train becomes the new Sky/USPS train, but one can dream.
A good analysis that I agree very much with. Might I just add that between Bernal and Roglic, I find that Bernal is the safest bet. I know it's a strange thing to say, given that Roglic has arguably looked the best of the two so far, but Bernal is just such a grinder on the mountains. He almost always looks laboured and yet he is almost impossible to drop in the high mountains. I think more question marks can be raised about Roglic in the high mountains, where I have not yet seen him produce huge performances like Bernal did in the Tour last year. The stage to Col de la Loze will be a key stage for this reason, I believe.
 
A good analysis that I agree very much with. Might I just add that between Bernal and Roglic, I find that Bernal is the safest bet. I know it's a strange thing to say, given that Roglic has arguably looked the best of the two so far, but Bernal is just such a grinder on the mountains. He almost always looks laboured and yet he is almost impossible to drop in the high mountains. I think more question marks can be raised about Roglic in the high mountains, where I have not yet seen him produce huge performances like Bernal did in the Tour last year. The stage to Col de la Loze will be a key stage for this reason, I believe.
I don't know if I've seen enough of Bernal to call him that reliable. He was getting dropped in the first 2 weeks in the Tour. Roglic, in his Vuelta win never got in trouble. There are 2 mountain stages that should suit Bernal over Roglic. One of them they did in the l'Ain, and Roglic owned Bernal there.

And Ineos' favorite recipe, conservative climbing splits when defending, blowing peloton to shambles when aggressive, won't work that well if they can't break Jumbo's domestiques. Col de la Loze has just about the worst possible profile. The easiest part is in the middle, the hardest part at the end
 

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